Jack of All Trades Mafia -- OVER!

[Mastermind of Sin]

I need to reread, but that needs to wait until after I am done with my last week of classes, most likely.

[Yaw]

Vote Count:

Not Voting: Coron, Mastermind of Sin, ThAdmiral

2 to lynch

[Coron]

There's no way to prove this, obviously, but I would have killed mos if I was scum.

mind explaining why?

[ThAdmiral]

He seems to be to be the most likely town in my eyes.
I do realize he's been around for ages and could just be playing well, but that's how I feel.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Might as well ask this while I'm thinking about it, even though I haven't had time to reread yet.

What suspicions did you have against STD that made you feel I was the most likely town instead of him?

[ThAdmiral]

He was just lurking more.

[Coron]

if you're scum at this point, you're likely going to hit town either way. Why worry about whether you think he is scum?

That doesn't make much sense ThAdmiral.

[Mastermind of Sin]

rofl!

[ThAdmiral]

I think the point is that I'm not scum.
Maybe you're right, if I was scum maybe I would have thought about the things like who was more likely to vote for who etc. Like you have.

[Coron]

or perhaps you're just making up horseshit and trying to make it sound good.

I find this likely.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'll try to reread tomorrow, I'm finally home.

[ThAdmiral]

I'm attempting to do a reread, mainly of voting patterns, but I have limited computer access.
It may take me a few days.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I really miss the view all posts function. I really need that right now...

[Yaw]

My plane is now officially booked, for Friday August 17 in the evening. That means that this game has to be finished by then.

It would be preferable if it were finished a couple days before so I could contribute to some post-game discussion.

In other words, get off your asses.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I totally missed my tuesday deadline by 45 minutes, but let's just ignore that shall we.

About Ibby and MBL: I'm taking the side of Ibby. 'Nuf said.

I had an early suspicion of Yos in day 1, where it seemed like he was trying to derail viper wagon for mlaker. I also liked someone else's argument about when Yos voiced his question about items. Some said it was weak, but I find that a very interesting fact that works against him, since he claimed 'nilla town.

I really don't see why people aren't running up H_P since I think it was MOS, who brought up good points against him yesterday.

I need to collect my thoughts some more before placing a vote, but I'm most suspicious of HP, MBL and Yos atm, from what I remember from my read-through.

This is a point in favor of ThAdmiral being town.

@MoS: Logically I think quagmire's scumbuddy's are coron and thok, since they haven't voted him yet.

Quite simply if quagmire was town and there was a scum yet to vote they would just do it, right? (This would mean mafia win I believe)
That is unless all three mafia have already voted him, but I find that hard to believe since two of the people I most trust to be town (MoS, and STD) are ones voting.

More likely is that quagmire is scum and the people not voting yet are his scum-partners (except me, cause I'm ready to drop the hammer).

It is possible, however, that a mafiate jumped on the wagon thinking it was a lost cause, ready to throw their partner under a bus to look more pro-town. If this is the case I believe SV is scum and thok is town.

What led you to believe there were 5 total scum again? I forget the reasoning behind this.

Oh, right!

Sorry, I just got confused when I saw he only had two votes on him, but then I remembered mos unvoted him.

@Thok: seeing as you are trying to deduce who quagmire's scum partner is, do you have any lead suspects?

This post seems kinda suspect. Like he's trying to make sure that he's not leading the suspicion list, so he can make sure the others get lynched first or something.

Well I'm fairly suspicious of coron for fairly obvious reasons. I'm going to go do a read through to a) see if I can dig up any more dirt on coron and b) to look at how players interacted with quagmire through the game.

You made this post without ever presenting any case against Coron, so I don't see what *obvious* reasons you had...

Well I'm going to go ahead a

vote: coron

.

Save the dragons: if you believe me and coron are scum then you have nothing to lose by putting your money where your mouth is and voting him as well. Just saying.

(And before anyone asks, no I haven't done the read through yet to dig up dirt on coron, but I will if you feel I absolutely have to. I was planning to then I remembered it was 79 pages...)

I'm going to call you on this, ThAdmiral. It's critical that we hit scum today, so I'm going to have to ask you to give me an in-depth case on Coron. Coron, the same goes for you. I want to see a case lined out in a single post, please. I'm doing the same as well.

Mystery Meat of Doom night targets

Night 1: Switches ibaesha (Jack Johnson) with SpamWise (Jack Quinn)
Night 2: Switches MrBuddyLee (Jack Nelson) with the silent speaker (Jack Fox)
Night 3: No choice submitted
Night 4: Switches Yosarian2 (officeless) into the empty office of Jack Gallagher
Night 5: Switches spectrumvoid (Jack Irving) into the empty office of Jack Kay

On night 5, MMOD was switched into a new office with a new role: Jack zimmerman

I'm assuming your new role has no abilities?


I'm not going to comment on today's posts unless something really jumps out at me, because I could see you both making those posts as town or scum, and it's hard to differentiate at this point, since there's nothing else going on except talking about which one of us three is scum. I did notice that ThAdmiral both set himself up to make an argument against me and then turned around in the next post and said that if I was scum I've played an excellent game, which is basically the same as saying that I'm protown. That post is a possible attempt to butter me up and get me on his side.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'm continuing from my last analysis of Coron, since I asked him questions based on his play so far at that time. I feel that he answered all the questions adequately, but I do want to focus on this last one for a sec.

Who do you think is scum right now? Do you approve of the Quagmire-wagon?

I dunno how I feel about the quag wagon, but it seems to me either way ThAdmiral is probably scum.

Why was ThAdmiral scum whether or not Quag was scum? Obviously, Quag WAS scum, but if he'd been town, what made you think ThAdmiral would still be scum?

Quite simply if quagmire was town and there was a scum yet to vote they would just do it, right? (This would mean mafia win I believe)
That is unless all three mafia have already voted him, but I find that hard to believe since two of the people I most trust to be town (MoS, and STD) are ones voting.

How do we know we have 3 scum left? Do you know something we don't?

More likely is that quagmire is scum and the people not voting yet are his scum-partners (except me, cause I'm ready to drop the hammer).

you act like jumping on a bandwagon of someone who it looks like is going to die anyway makes you less likely to be scum. This is a reasonably common thing to be done by scum.

I agree very much with this post. ThAdmiral thinking that being on the Quag wagon makes you less scummy doesn't really work (I think I actually missed this in my TA analysis). Quag's been scummy for quite some time, and he probably would've been lynched the day before had people not lurked until NL, so it's not like he wasn't pretty much condemned already. I'd been pushing him for something like 3 or 4 days by then, and as suspects dwindled, people were agreeing.

Save the dragons: if you believe me and coron are scum then you have nothing to lose by putting your money where your mouth is and voting him as well. Just saying.

No.

:goodposting:
ThAdmiral, there is no reason to rush through the day, that is unless you're scum trying to minimize the information town has.

This feels protown to me.

I didn't vote quagmire yesterday because ThAdmiral was/is ridiculous scummy. I'm going after him because he's ridiculous scummy, and I'm going after him because he's ridiculous scummy.

Got it?

Point against. Coron kept saying that ThAdmiral was ridiculously scummy and couldn't understand why people didn't agree, but he never explained *why* ThAdmiral was scummy up to that point.

I think after that I asked Coron to explain it, though since he soon posted some reasoning.

Ok, SV might have a few more scum tells on him, however look at it this way, what we want here is a density of scummy actions not a total of scummy actions, as ThAdmiral has many fewer posts in which to be scummy, and a lot of scumminess in these posts, he has an extremely high scuminess density.

Also, now MoS is acting shady again -_-

I'm not really sure I agree that density > total #, but I don't really have a counterargument. I'm not sure what the problem I have with this argument is, bah. >_< Also, point in favor of CoronTown, since he actually voiced suspicion of someone *other* than ThAdmiral, whereas ThAdmiral has pretty much gone solely after Coron after Quag's death.

Coron's argument with me is pretty much a null tell, because I believe he would've taken issue with that regardless of alignment.

[Mastermind of Sin]

At this point, I'm leaning far more towards ThAdmiral than Coron, but I'd like to give you both a chance to make cases in detail, as I have, before anyone casts a vote.

[Coron]

Who do you think is scum right now? Do you approve of the Quagmire-wagon?

I dunno how I feel about the quag wagon, but it seems to me either way ThAdmiral is probably scum.

Why was ThAdmiral scum whether or not Quag was scum? Obviously, Quag WAS scum, but if he'd been town, what made you think ThAdmiral would still be scum?

Very few/none of the tells at that point against ThAdmiral had anything to Quagmire being scum.

I didn't vote quagmire yesterday because ThAdmiral was/is ridiculous scummy. I'm going after him because he's ridiculous scummy, and I'm going after him because he's ridiculous scummy.

Got it?

Point against. Coron kept saying that ThAdmiral was ridiculously scummy and couldn't understand why people didn't agree, but he never explained *why* ThAdmiral was scummy up to that point.

You know how I roll.


Oh by the way, I completely understand what you're saying about the scummy density. and I can refute my own arguement, it is in fact not *solely* dependant on density. After all if someone posts something scummy in his only post, as compared to someone who has done something at least mildly scummy in each one of is 50 posts. Maybe the scummy action by the 1st one was just a fluke, but with the 50 posts to view, well, his 50 scummy actions are much less likely to be a fluke.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Yea, I think that's sorta what I was thinking. Regardless, I don't think it ties *that* heavily into your alignment whether you are right or wrong about it, but it bugged me from a game theory standpoint.

[ThAdmiral]

After having a look at voting histories (both of Coron and MoS) I am now very confused.
They read as such at the end of each day:
Legend -
read as:
day - voted for - player lynched

DNV

= did not vote

Darkred

= scum aligned

Orange

= a town lynch the player was involved in

Green I's

= a scum lynch the player was involved in

Coron
Day 1 - Spamwise - Bogre
Day 2 -

DNV

-

Bluemonick

Day 3 -

DNV

- babyjesus
Day 4 -

Mathcam - Mathcam

Day 5 -

II

Fuldu

-

Fuldu

II

Day 6 -

Uraj - Uraj

Day 7 -

DNV

- No one
Day 8 - ThAdmiral -

Quagmire

Day 9 -

DNV

- Spectrumvoid

MoS
Day 1 - Spamwise - Bogre
Day 2 - Armlx -

Bluemonick

Day 3 -

Babyjesus - Babyjesus

Day 4 - Mrbuddylee - Mathcam
Day 5 - Ces -

Fuldu

Day 6 -

DNV

- Uraj
Day 7 -

Quagmire

- No one
Day 8 -

II

Quagmire

-

Quagmire

II

Day 9 -

Spectrumvoid - Spectrumvoid

Here is some analysis:
- Both of you have been involved in two town lynches each. Of these however I would only say the Spectrumvoid lynch by MoS was the only one that any of you had any real responsibility for, as MoS pushed fairly strongly for that one.
- Both of you have also been involved in the lynch of a scum. Coron's vote swing to fuldu was instrumental in his lynch, but could coron have guessed it may have happened anyway, and jumped on board early to gain town cred (he didn't provide any reason for his switch, for instance)? Quagmire's lynch was heavily pushed for by MoS, but could it have been a set up that one of the two remaining scum would throw the other under a bus to gain town cred? I don't really think either of these situations are likely to be honest: Coron could well have let things run it's course with fuldu, and there was a period where MoS and quagmire were the only one's voting and could have teamed up instead and perhaps won the game. If anything I think the MoS/quag teammate-under-bus-plan is slightly more likely though.
- The one stat that you differ in is times-not-voted. Coron failed to vote four times, and MoS only failed to vote once. I think that is fairly damming in my eyes: it is lurkish and it means that there is less to go on for players to analyze later in the game (like now).

If anything this tips me towards still voting for coron, but I can't completely look past his vote for fuldu that helped condemn a mafiate.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I assume there would be 5 mafia due to the size of the game. Is that unreasonable?

On the people I think are scum and the people I think are town: these are based on my overall feeling after reading through the game.

ThAdmiral's comments are making me consider the idea of us starting with 2 mafias of size 2 each and one SK, all of those groups having some nightkill protection (necessary to explain the relative lack of kills night 1). One of those mafias would be bluemonick-Fuldu, fairly obviously.

In such a scenario, my reasons for thinking MMod (now ThAdmiral) are protown are basically null and void.

ThAdmiral, obviously there was not a 5-person mafia, or the game would be over. That's not the point, though. Do you now contend that there was simply a 4-person mafia instead of 2 2-person mafias? That is the only way that votes in relation to Fuldu and bluemonick can possibly mean anything.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Also, I believe that Coron was instrumental in presenting a case against Mathcam for his lynch, and I was pretty convinced that BabyJesus was scum, so I don't think you can really say that SV was the only protown lynch that either of us were instrumental for.

[Mastermind of Sin]

gah, forgot to address the last point, and I got distracted. I agree that the Coron lurking thing is bad, but he was inactive for a long time and was really lazy. However, that point is probably the only major thing that's keeping me from voting ThAdmiral (other than waiting for everyone to present cases).

[ThAdmiral]

ThAdmiral, obviously there was not a 5-person mafia, or the game would be over. That's not the point, though. Do you now contend that there was simply a 4-person mafia instead of 2 2-person mafias? That is the only way that votes in relation to Fuldu and bluemonick can possibly mean anything.[/quote]
I don't know anymore. Based on how many kills there were on some nights, followed up by a lack of that many kills in subsequent nights what would you say? Do you think 4 person mafia with another killing role that wasn't always used or 2 2 person mafias where sometimes one team didn't send in a kill?

[ThAdmiral]

ThAdmiral, obviously there was not a 5-person mafia, or the game would be over. That's not the point, though. Do you now contend that there was simply a 4-person mafia instead of 2 2-person mafias? That is the only way that votes in relation to Fuldu and bluemonick can possibly mean anything.

I don't know anymore. Based on how many kills there were on some nights, followed up by a lack of that many kills in subsequent nights what would you say? Do you think 4 person mafia with another killing role that wasn't always used or 2 2 person mafias where sometimes one team didn't send in a kill?

*Fixed*