Micro 440: Triplicate Mafia - Game Over

[serrapaladin]

It's probably the group for which I'm least confident about my reads, but I'm currently leaning towards PN.

Sorry if that sounded condescending, btw. The structure of probabilities here is somewhat similar to the Monty Hall problem, which is well-known for having a counter-intuitive solution.

[serrapaladin]

Zeb* autocorrect hates you.

Hitting 1 scum today will end up like this

A: Town, Town (dead scum)
B: Town, Town (dead town)
C: Town, Scum (dead mislynched town)

Scum will kill from A because they are both now conf town. Leaving us with

A: Town (confirmed)
B: Town Town (unconfirmed)
C: Town Scum (unconfirmed)

We will lynch between B and C for the rest of the game.

And that is what he said - he didn't get the mechanics wrong, just the probabilities.

[Lucky2u]

But in his model there are still 3 people alive in B and C tomorrow

[Zebulin]

The 2nd person could be town or scum, 50/50 odds.

It didn't sound condescending, don't worry serra

[Perpetual Nonsense]

PN what is your read on me

no clue. But you know that from past games (I think Timeshift) where I deferred and hoped the rest would townread you since I have no clue. Same with the 1610 game which I got lynched in - you were SK and I had no clue.

the other groups seem to 'prefer' me gone (their opinions have become more numerous since I became active), and it does make me worried what their agenda is. However, that's paranoia and bottom line is they can't vote me, and words are just words.

I do know that 'Our' group is the focus of most discussion, which is disappointing as the other groups need more resolution. Probably because 'Our' group is the most active lately and the other groups have people coasting and/or just plain busy IRL.

I still think his thought processes (Zeb's) about me don't feel like he's trying to make sure he feels good about voting me. There's mostly talk about his 'percentages' in this game. Kinda rings empty. Lots of energy, sure, but not much else. Like passion, actively figuring out both Us and Molla (other groups too), or other things I attribute in my own past games. I see similarities in Our games and his because Zeb whined about getting lynched often and being lynchbait in past games, and stuff. So I use that to try to see in my microscope what I think of his play.

THese posts are assuming I'm just not counting BBMolla, but he still has a good chance of being scum. He's just not posting so I can't intercat with him and make a more educated guess as to his alignment.

His interactions are sort of one-way. He asks 'why' about everything, but there's so much more to talk about when he discusses my posts and your posts. There's much more he can go into considering how he is stressing how his interactions with you are lacking lately. So a certain openness is missing. Look at how he interacts with me/Us, and it's not quite as open as I'd like.

I didn't buy Gaiden's view about Zebulin at first, but I kinda see it now?

The problem with this post is that I don't have Molla as strongtown, not anymore. He stopped contributing to the discussion a while back and is basically prod-dodging, and that's dropped him to a null read.



Need to go to school now, will address other stuff later.

Here, he had just had Us as lean town earlier that day (hours ago), then says Molla has become null due to inactivity, yet just minutes ago he voted Us if you look at his previous posts. That doesn't add up.

[Not_Mafia]

Power

Hopkirk (1)-

Lucky2u

Lucky2u (1)-

Hopkirk

goodmorning (0)-

Not Voting (1)-

goodmorning

Wisdom

serrapaladin (0)-

beastcharizard (0)-

Scripten (0)-

Not Voting (3)-

serrapaladin, Scripten, beastcharizard

Courage

Zebulin (2)-

BBMolla, Perpetual Nonsense

Perpetual Nonsense (1)-

Zebulin

BBMolla (0)-

Not Voting (0)-

Deadline is in

(expired on 2015-02-09 20:00:00)

- Feb 9th 20:00 GMT

[Perpetual Nonsense]

I had my doubts yesterday about whether there is scum in this neighborhood, or if Molla was just getting by me easily without me noticing, but eh that feeling subsided a little. Part just IRL not being here, part not thinking about the game and overthinking

Mind you, Zeb also doesn't look great on that last page, but I'd rather lynch PN.

Why doesn't Zeb look great on the last page? you could ask me things considering you were dead wrong about my slot until it was too late in our only old game together. I don't have anything to say to Lucky2u as I understand why he scumreads me (almost by default in past games), so it's not surprising to me, no. Your scumread doesn't surprise me either, but what's important i see now is that your group has Beastcharizard and Scripten, and right now looking back

I don't have a full-blown townread on zeb, but I have no doubt that town!zebulin could absolutely come up with an interpretation of BB's meta and apply it as in 110, be it correct or not. I somewhat liked that his early play felt somewhat loose. That being said. the only questions he's asked that are actually relevant to his actions and understanding of the game are why people are voting for him, which could well be the scummy flavour of self-preservation. There were some details in PN's posts that pinged more than anything by zeb though - mentioning how much time we have on the DL for one, and the unrequested list of whom to lynch, going very much along the path of least resistance. I don't buy that people can read that slot from the level of seriousness.

comments on why you have Molla as town please.

And also, why do you have Beastcharizard as scummier than Scripten? I can't find that in your ISO, and I know you're more articulate than that. Other than discussing Monty's whatever and how to best approach this game, your play hasn't been as notable as I expect it to be.

UNVOTE:

I think I'd probably rather lynch scripten between him and WP.

BC > scrip > serra

PN > zeb = BB

Why BC > Scrip? And what changed?

[Lucky2u]

I'm going to ignore how I fudged up reading Zeb's list and just say "my bad"

[Lucky2u]

I don't have anything to say to Lucky2u as I understand why he scumreads me (almost by default in past games)

This must be Bert talking.

[beastcharizard]

Look Serra is scum. I called her out and then she gets a scum read on me. They aren't actually saying anything until after I called them out as well. They were trying to skate by content on me and scripten thinking the other is scum and then when I showed that wasn't mh train of thought she had to do something.

[serrapaladin]

You have the impression I didn't scumread your slot before your replace in?

[Scripten]

Look Serra is scum. I called her out and then she gets a scum read on me. They aren't actually saying anything until after I called them out as well. They were trying to skate by content on me and scripten thinking the other is scum and then when I showed that wasn't mh train of thought she had to do something.

I didn't feel any break in inertia here. Pretty convinced your slot is scum. What's scummy about 94? What do you think about Zebulin?

VOTE: Beastcharizard

[Hopkirk]

One page at a time.

Going through lucky.
Lots of posts which don't say anything excluded.

hmm... so far I want to vote both my group mates...

Didn't like this post. He wants to vote us both yet doesn't follow up with any attempt to decide which? It seems like he was just waiting until one of us looked worse than the other.

Well this will be rather easy for me today. GM seems town enough that I can just

VOTE: hopkirk

It's not that I feel strongly about Hopkirk, We could be the town block sure but I agree that discussion of that doesn't really gain us anything.

Three problems i have with this post.
1.) Following on from the last post, it follows the scum motivation- just waiting to vote oppertunistly.
2.) Classic scum lylo crossvoting move.
3.) The last point is strange to raise. It seems like he wants to say what WP did but then, as he's worried about people voting WP for it, he makes a change to the end. Why raise it if he doesn't think it matters? I suppose it also accomplishes the goal of making it harder to argue against his vote on me- making it from lack of choice rather than specifics.

Addressing your comment on the first quote and point 1 in your list. As I said, I didn't plan to be absent, it wasn't me being oppurtunistic, it was just me coming back and having enough info to make a decision.

Point 2, this is LyLo? I haven't played this setup before but the "Classic scum crossvoting move" is a last day effort based on the fact that there is NO tomorrow. Therefor, the scum can make wild accusations that don't hold up with multiple days left. As that is NOT the case here, you can't accuse me of that, your point is invalid.

Point 3, how does it make it harder for you to argue my vote against you? If your argument is that I am scum, then nothing I say is relevent because I am lying.

So could you answer my question about why you didn't vote either of us if we were both suspicous?

Partially because the comment was an exasperated sarcastic comment and partially because I can't vote two people at once. While I didn't mean to be gone for two days, sitting back did reveal GM to be pretty dang town, so now I don't have to choose!

Quoting this purely to have his response here. No real comment except i don't buy it. Seems to reinforce what i was saying earlier too.

What seems to reinforce what here? It doesn't really relate to anything you said.

1.) That's your defense, the same as given in part 4. I don't think it sounds town and don't buy it.
2.) The situation votewise is the same as lylo. If i scumread you and you "scumread" me then the third person is deciding on the lynch.
3.) This is an awful line of argument. I'm pretty confident you are scum but i need to convince GM of it. This is evidence for my read.
4.) The same thing as 1 again. Scummy defense of it, not one i buy.

Also note the selective quoting.

This is the same (almost) as what i said i dislike about lucky

As i brought up in my last post, lucky basically does the same thing.

These comments were made in relation to Scipten and Witness. I don't know what it means that you would make these side comments relating your reads on them to me, but I don't like it.

Mainly it's strange for scripten to be suspicious of Witness but not you as you both did the suspicious thing.

1.) So is it usually helpful and this game is just an outlier?
2.) They both said about themselves being in a townblock.
3.) How are you reading the third member of your block?

1.) Ok.
2.) In 99, the main post i take issue with.
3.) Do you mean town by actions or town by default?

1) I can take or leave it. It usually only takes a minute or so. I just tab up what I can find of a player's games and cross reference behaviors.
2) I didn't see this. Can you link to that post?
3) Serra is null-town. He is quiet and sort of avoiding the limelight, but the way in which he's acted feels more like town than scum.

I was liking Hopkirk til 172, now I think maybe not so Town?

As for me not really being around: I'm taking six 3000-level classes. My professors are mostly ridiculous.

What were you liking before 172? 90% of what i was doing before was dodging prods.

[Hopkirk]

I was liking Hopkirk til 172, now I think maybe not so Town?

As for me not really being around: I'm taking six 3000-level classes. My professors are mostly ridiculous.

Can you go into a bit of detail about what you don't like about 172? I have my own issues with the post, but I'm surprised it would make you do a 180.

Also, totally understand. Last semester of my senior year right now. All upper division classes.

My main problem is the enumerated responses to Lucky's 99. There's a marked propensity there for staring fixedly at one possibility and ignoring the rest.

They seem to get further from the real world every semester.

I'm enjoying seeing PN actually posting. I'll have to do a reread at some point.

I raised points on around half of his non fluff posts. Lucky has/had few posts and 99 was the most problematic one. I don't see what the problem is here?

[beastcharizard]

You have the impression I didn't scumread your slot before your replace in?

I don't remember you expressing any opinion on my slot after you saying you would rather scripten than me. If you did, I missed it so do kindly point it out for me.

Look Serra is scum. I called her out and then she gets a scum read on me. They aren't actually saying anything until after I called them out as well. They were trying to skate by content on me and scripten thinking the other is scum and then when I showed that wasn't mh train of thought she had to do something.

I didn't feel any break in inertia here. Pretty convinced your slot is scum. What's scummy about 94? What do you think about Zebulin?

VOTE: Beastcharizard

Break in inertia?

Zebulin is town. That whole group is town assuming it is the group I think it is.

[beastcharizard]

About 94. It doesn't even feel like a real reason to town read someone. I already said that. It feel like serra is just making up reasons for reads to look like she is doing stuff.

[BBmolla]

Cause I do?

I don't really know how to answer that.

His thought on what someone would say as scum is different than mine.

So in what sense am I overreacting rather than just wrong? PN basically claimed that it made no sense to do anything but crossvote, and hence they didn't need to think about their reads. That logical inversion of reads and votes isn't a sensible way for town to think.

Zeb's maths is wrong, though I'm sure he believes it. Hitting town twice in a group makes it more likely that group was the all-town one, so everyone not conftown should be treated equally from D2.

I think you're wrong because you're overreacting.

[BBmolla]

You don't strike me as someone who fakes mistaking how the mechanics of this game work, and I think that mistake is more town than scum. I am happy with PN as your lynch target. So go do it.

This is ridiculous.

[BBmolla]

Beast's slot continues to be a scumfuck, lynch that shit.

[BBmolla]

Look Serra is scum. I called her out and then she gets a scum read on me. They aren't actually saying anything until after I called them out as well. They were trying to skate by content on me and scripten thinking the other is scum and then when I showed that wasn't mh train of thought she had to do something.

^scumposting

[goodmorning]

So Molla is Town after all. Hm.

[Zebulin]

So Molla is Town after all. Hm.

I would call this whiteknighting if it wasn't for the fact that those posts really are town.

The reason my BBMolla read keeps jumping is because he's posting very little compared to serra or Perpetual Nonsense or me, and that makes each townfilled or scumfilled post jump on my radar a lot more than a town or scum post from someone who's posted a lot.

Are we all using serra's system of voting? My votes are on Hopkirk, beastcharizard, and Perpetual Nonsense.

[Zebulin]

I mean, he's had the 3rd most posts, but they're all one line each.

[goodmorning]

So Molla is Town after all. Hm.

I would call this whiteknighting if it wasn't for the fact that those posts really are town.

Uh. What?

[Zebulin]

So Molla is Town after all. Hm.

I would call this whiteknighting if it wasn't for the fact that those posts really are town.

Uh. What?

You haven't talked about BBMolla until now, and then you come up with a strong townread. If the posts weren't towny posts it would be really suspicious.