In post 186, goodmorning wrote:I was liking Hopkirk til 172, now I think maybe not so Town?
As for me not really being around: I'm taking six 3000-level classes. My professors are mostly ridiculous.
Can you go into a bit of detail about what you don't like about 172? I have my own issues with the post, but I'm surprised it would make you do a 180.
Also, totally understand. Last semester of my senior year right now. All upper division classes.
My main problem is the enumerated responses to Lucky's 99. There's a marked propensity there for staring fixedly at one possibility and ignoring the rest.
They seem to get further from the real world every semester.
I'm enjoying seeing PN actually posting. I'll have to do a reread at some point.
In post 192, Perpetual Nonsense wrote:There is no reason to make further considerations if you aren't going to vote Molla. A Molla lynch then becomes impossible. That leaves only two choices. You, and Me. Please don't twist my words.
A vote on Molla makes no sense and has no point given you townreading him, and you thinking We are more scummy than Molla.
This is thinking about votes and reads tactically rather than organically.
In post 194, Perpetual Nonsense wrote:Right now, I see you're prodding people to talk more and checking on their activity.
However, if you're town, your survival means the most right now
to you, more than figuring our the other blocks seeing as you're the one most likely to die right now, being the only one player with a majority of two votes.
Random strategy I just thought of: If we hit 1 scum D1 and mislynch D2 in a group where town died D2, then policy lynching the 3rd member will give Town and 67% chance of victory. I'd policy lynch if I lived that long, though I'll probably be lynched or nightkilled
In post 197, Zebulin wrote:Nonononono. Just because I'm townreading Molla doesn't eliminate the chance that Molla's scum, and I'm giving it a 60/40 chance that you're scum compared to BBMolla. Keep in mind I said you're leaning town. I'll vote Molla if he looks scummier than you or keeps lurking, because it's frustrating me.
This backpedaling makes me want to change my list...
This post. This post made me go from strong-town to null.
In post 159, BBmolla wrote:Like I'm pretty content to lynch Zebulin and WP and go from there, so I don't have much more to say
Easily scum not having to contribute to scumhunting. Town doesn't have a motivation to not say anything.
PN: It's better for me to be lynched D1 than to get a townie lynched D1 and be lynched D2. That's why I'm more focused on figuring out which of you or BBMolla is scum than trying to save my own life.
In post 213, Zebulin wrote:Random strategy I just thought of: If we hit 1 scum D1 and mislynch D2 in a group where town died D2, then policy lynching the 3rd member will give Town and 67% chance of victory. I'd policy lynch if I lived that long, though I'll probably be lynched or nightkilled
"In your dreams Zeb" says everyone
before then.
That wouldn't happen, because Scum would have to kill a confTown from the group where Scum was hit.
In post 213, Zebulin wrote:Random strategy I just thought of: If we hit 1 scum D1 and mislynch D2 in a group where town died D2, then policy lynching the 3rd member will give Town and 67% chance of victory. I'd policy lynch if I lived that long, though I'll probably be lynched or nightkilled
"In your dreams Zeb" says everyone
before then.
That wouldn't happen, because Scum would have to kill a confTown from the group where Scum was hit.
Let's say that we hit one scum Day 1, in group A.
A: Town, Town
B: Town, Town/Scum
C: Town, Town/Scum
Scum obviously kills from Group A, the confirmed town group.
A: Town
B: Town, Town/Scum
C: Town, Town/Scum
Let's say we mislynch in B.
A: Town
B: Town/Scum
C: Town, Town/Scum
Group A dies again.
B: Town/Scum
C: Town, Town/Scum
At this point, there's a 50% chance of the player in B to be scum, but lynching from group C only gives us a 25% chance of catching scum (50% chance you hit the scum member, 50% chance there's actually a scum member). Unless someone in C was obviously scum (i.e. quick-hammer) I would policy lynch the member in Group B. There is a 2/3rds chance you made the right call, hence 67% chance (not 67% chance of victory, I worded that wrong.)
His thought on what someone would say as scum is different than mine.
So in what sense am I overreacting rather than just wrong? PN basically claimed that it made no sense to do anything but crossvote, and hence they didn't need to think about their reads. That logical inversion of reads and votes isn't a sensible way for town to think.
Zeb's maths is wrong, though I'm sure he believes it. Hitting town twice in a group makes it more likely that group was the all-town one, so everyone not conftown should be treated equally from D2.
Zek you are aware that three people are going to get lynched today right? Going into night 1 will have 6 players left. Day 2 will start with 5 (and potentially be LyLo). Your order of death is off.
The bunny knight reigns supreme!
Get to know me! Here! and now Here too!
His thought on what someone would say as scum is different than mine.
So in what sense am I overreacting rather than just wrong? PN basically claimed that it made no sense to do anything but crossvote, and hence they didn't need to think about their reads. That logical inversion of reads and votes isn't a sensible way for town to think.
Zeb's maths is wrong, though I'm sure he believes it. Hitting town twice in a group makes it more likely that group was the all-town one, so everyone not conftown should be treated equally from D2.
...my bad.
Lucky2u, serrapaladin, what's your take on Courage?
You don't strike me as someone who fakes mistaking how the mechanics of this game work, and I think that mistake is more town than scum. I am happy with PN as your lynch target. So go do it.
The bunny knight reigns supreme!
Get to know me! Here! and now Here too!
