Micro 431 - Noughts and Crosses Mafia

[Belisarius]

@Math Scum pretty much have to kill Pine tonight. A T-Bone lynch tomorrow is still acceptable (and a preferred lynch of mine) regardless of RC's alignment. You shouldn't be too concerned, we can definitely swing a T-Bone lynch tomorrow based on the sheer volume of people townreading me, and the fact that I'm townreading you hardcore.

@scum: For you, sir/madam, the war is over.

[Mathdino]

meanwhile, i question your alignment with the 'hardcore townreading' and the general buddying going on

but fuuuuck

even if T-Bone flips scum our lynches become forced after that

and if he's town we unquestionably lose by lynching him

need to look at beli's interactions now -_-

[Belisarius]

Fill yer boots, mate.

[T-Bone]

You can't act like I'm confirmed scum and then agonize over losing the game in the same breath if you're town. There is so much disconnect there it isn't even about anything else right now. If you're sure I'm scum then I would have just handed the game to the town. It's ridiculous. If you want to write me off as scum that's on you. If you're town you should realize where I am coming from from a town perspective. You're not even willing to view this situation from my perspective. If you're scum you obviously don't have to. If you're town and think I'm scum then you don't have to either. At this point I can't even see where you'd be coming from a town perspective because the hemming and hawing at this stage makes absolutely no sense.

[Mathdino]

Scenarios:

1. RC is scum. Great. Sweet. Keep lynching as usual and have everyone promise to lynch T-Bone in LyLo. Scum is guaranteed to be in {Kaboose, vettrock, T-Bone}.
2. RC is town and T-Bone is town. FUCK WE LOST.
3. RC is town and T-Bone is scum. Whoop-dee-doo. Scum just hammered town. But EVEN IF we lynch T-Bone the day after that, we either go with the lynch scum force upon us, or we HAVE to bag the last scum. Otherwise we lose.
And unfortunately, T-Bone, I have no idea who your partner is, and we don't have the luxury of just lynching anyone.

The hilarious thing about this is this game would now be easier if it were mountainous.

[Belisarius]

At this point I can't even see where you'd be coming from a town perspective because the hemming and hawing at this stage makes absolutely no sense.

In what universe do competent townies fail to consider the possibility of being wrong?

[Scripten]

Spoiler: Posts

T-Bone needs to give a lot more input than he already has before I'm near ready for a lynch.

I also want reads from the people who've spent all their time setup speccing.

Like vettrock

*goes offline for sleep and work*

*isn't putting in "effort"*

lol

So, does it change anyone's opinion that in the first two instances of this set-up someone always suggests that town lynches the IC for board control?

I'll hammer the fuck out of RC no problem...but why should I believe that him asking for this strategy THIS game when every time it has been asked for it has come from a town player (and the player shooting it down the most was scum). Why would scum touch that with a 10-ft pole?

But hey, let me hammer probtown cause I'm a scumfuck lol

Vote: RC

Scum is definitely Bel and Math, though since we're going down this path with RC a Bel or Math lynch are obvious next choices

T-Bone:

Talk to me about disconnects. How do these posts go in this order and NOT make you cringe? I'd like to see your train of thought that went from "There's not enough information in the thread for town to make well-informed lynch decisions." to "Let's quickhammer my town-read."

[Mathdino]

*goes offline for sleep and work*

*isn't putting in "effort"*

lol

So, does it change anyone's opinion that in the first two instances of this set-up someone always suggests that town lynches the IC for board control?

The best part (and I forgot about this post) is that this is a total misrep.

I didn't say he wasn't putting in effort.

I was responding to others wanting to quicklynch RC by saying that I want way more input from T-Bone and a few others before doing so.

Nice.

[Empking]

The first lynch of the game

RedCoyote (5) - Kaboose, Equinox, Scripten, Belisarius, T-Bone
Pine (1) - RedCoyote
T-Bone (1) - Mathdino

Note Voting:, Pine, vettrock
Five votes to lynch.
(expired on 2014-12-25 09:48:12)

[Empking]

So I'm here with RedCoyote, our first contestant. What do you do, Red?
Oh, really? How fascinating, I've never seen it. Well, the aim of the first game is simple. The aim is to take this rope to lasso it over that can of tomato soup over there. Do you think you can do it? Great. No, don't worry we're not monsters we want you to win; the rope has a knot tied on this side, so you don't have to have the special wrist action.
Are you ready?
Set!
Go!
Wait, what's he doing? That won't work. His neck's red, but its too hairy to be a tomato soup can. He's choking! He's stopped.

Red Coyote was lynched Day One. He was a Mafia Goon. Night One starts now.

[Empking]

What's lying dead on my floor?
Correct, pine needles.
Also, Pine.

Pine was killed Night One. He was a Town Innocent Child. Day Two begins now.

[Empking]

The best vote count of Day Two so far

Note Voting: Equinox, T-Bone, Belisarius, Kaboose, Mathdino, vettrock, Scripten
Four votes to lynch.
(expired on 2014-12-30 04:54:50)

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Mathdino

[Belisarius]

Alas, that is correct.

I kind of want to lynch vettrock and win today, but if I'm wrong, we lose the initiative.

VOTE: Mathdino

[Kaboose]

The best vote count of Day Two so far

Note Voting: Equinox, T-Bone, Belisarius, Kaboose, Mathdino, vettrock, Scripten

Five

votes to lynch.
(expired on 2014-12-30 04:54:50)

@MOD Is it five to lynch or four?

[Kaboose]

Alas, that is correct.

I kind of want to lynch vettrock and win today, but if I'm wrong, we lose the initiative.

VOTE: Mathdino

Anyone else see a problem with this?

[Scripten]

Alas, that is correct.

I kind of want to lynch vettrock and win today, but if I'm wrong, we lose the initiative.

VOTE: Mathdino

Anyone else see a problem with this?

What kind of problem do you mean? Thinking Vettrock is scum is a pretty understandable position, as is not wanting scum to be able to choose our lynches for us. I can understand the dilemma.

[Kaboose]

Belisarius wants to lynch Vettrock for the win. But votes Mathdino... The result either way is the same outcome. If we lynched Vettrock, who apparently is the winning lynch, and they come back town, the final scum would be forced to NK Mathdino for the block. We also don't lose the initiative because either way we end up going for the winning lynch on D3 or blocking to force the D4 finale if our block is town.

[Belisarius]

But if vet is town, scum NKs obvTown Mathdino for the block and then we are *forced* to lynch Equinox, also obvTown.

If we lynch Math and I'm wrong about vet, scum NKs him and we are forced to go for Kaboose, who I consider to be significantly more likely to be scum than Equinox.

[Belisarius]

Also, as an added bonus, lynching Math puts T-Bone back into the line of fire.

[Scripten]

VOTE: Mathdino

I have no problems with this plan. Anyone not comfortable with Math at L-1, speak up now.

[Empking]

Four to lynch

[Kaboose]

Also, as an added bonus, lynching Math puts T-Bone back into the line of fire.

This is wrong. It doesn't put T-Bone back in to the line of fire at all.

X|X|X
_____
X|M|X
_____
X|X|T

Current board, lynching top right doesn't even get close to T-Bone as a possible lynch at all. If we go your route, and everyone is town assuming, we start D3 like this...

X|X|T
_____
X|M|M
_____
X|X|T

Why does this board state put T-Bone under fire? We have to block by lynching me now, and that will indeed also be a town lynch. It doesn't put town in any more position to lynch T-Bone anymore than it is right now. Terrible logic.

[Scripten]

UNVOTE: Mathdino

Hold up a second. I'm going to do a quick once-over before we lynch.

[Belisarius]

Right now, he's invulnerable because lynching him sets up scum to control the board. I think he

is

scum if vet isn't. That means I need a T on the board on the top row or left column

before it's too late

if I want to get him lynched.

If you assume T-Bone scum, RC's actions yesterday make sense. TTT is a solved game, and it's accepted that taking a corner is the optimal move for the player starting. RC had to know that arguing against a corner would rain fire down upon him even if it didn't involve lynching confTown. Why would scum do that? Well, the risk-benefit analysis evens out a bit if town has a 50% chance of hitting scum by lynching a corner even at random, and RC knew that even if he did get lynched, T-Bone would be untouchable for a while. It adds up. RC's not a newbie, he's easily capable of following that logic.