Mafia v. Wolves Redux: Finally Over!

[The Fonz]

There is a point there- it would have taken an exceptionally bold scum to claim that early, and declare a guilty on an innocent. I think the 'miller' explanation makes much more sense.

@ BM- It didn't say what Al's role was, either.

[~N9V~]

N9V, your latest post is WIFOM.

I know...

[Phoebus]

Vote Count:

1 ~N9V~ (Battle Mage)

3 bird1111 (Akbar, Kison, XReyoX)
3 Battle Mage (~N9V~, theopor_COD, The Fonz)

1 PBuG (Raffles)

3 Raffles (Fuldu, PBuG, The Greg)

2 not voting: bird1111, Lowell

7 to lynch

[Akbar]

I am surprised several of you are willing to give Bird1111 another day pass on this game. He doesn't need any prodding from the Mod. The Mod already prodded him in the past and told us he didn't need any more. (Post 1103 for those skimming.) Basically he spent 3 days hiding and no one blinked an eye, except Flay and XReyoX, 1 of which wound up dead.

I really don't trust The Fonz either. The way his posts attempt to move the crowd 1 step at a time seems manipulative.

Pah, he's got a guilty. Whether you feel like accepting it at face value or not, it's testable.

After no disapproval from the crowd...

He'd have to be really stupid scum to claim right now. If scum are really stupid, they tend to give themselves away sooner or later anyway. Hence, I see no reason not to test his result.

Vote: IH

After IH's lynch and some accusations get directed at N9V...

The important thing you're forgetting is, if he's not the real mafia-finding cop, THERE'S ALMOST CERTAINLY ANOTHER ONE OUT THERE. So unless and until he gets counterclaimed, we shouldn't lynch him.

Here, he's offered a trade to a real cop abandoning his cover to confirm or deny what N9V has done.

If there's someone capable of counterclaiming, they'll come out eventually or be NKed, and there's no harm in leaving N9V alive until that point.

Again, reiterating N9V should receive lynch immunity until a real cop exposes himself.

I'd suggest leaving N9V alive, but not lynching solely on the basis of his results, for a few days yet.

Here he suggests we wait a few days before deciding on N9V. Well let's see. In 3 days we've lost 8 people. We're averaging over 2 fatalities a day. In a few days, assuming "few" means 3 we will average another 7 deaths, leaving 6 alive to come to a decision.

If IH was a Miller role, wouldn't that show up on his role tag? I think N9V is lying. As much as I don't trust BM & Fuldu, I think their appraisal of the situation is accurate.

It didn't show up on Al's tag whether he was cult, mafia or mason. Why would it come up on IH's? We seem to have a limited-reveal game. Deal with it.

Massive FOS: anyone pushing an N9V lynch today

Here, The Fonz attempts to assert himself as an authority on this game's theme, ironically being a day 3 replacement. Sorry, if I don't just "deal with it" and place my vote where I'm told based on your coaxing.

Raffles may have been a 'prime suspect' but I actually think that wagon was poorly-reasoned and full of scum. By saying 'the only way he's innocent is if he's insane cop' is such a clearly beneficial strat if you're scum. You get to lynch one person not part of your scum group as a 'test', and if he comes up innocent, then you get to lynch the cop. Not buying it.

This is the 1st sound logic I've seen from The Fonz. If we're going to lynch test N9V's claim, lynching his "innocent" won't help much. Raffles being scum or town still won't confirm N9V.
If Raffles is town, N9V could be scum betting on the odds because Raffles isn't in his scumgroup or just legitimate cop that investigated correctly.
If Raffles is scum, Raffles could be the "wrong" scum group type for N9V to identify, N9V could be town and just insane, or could be Raffles scumbuddy trying to keep heat off him.

@Kison: How does n9v trying to investigate you make him not a scum?

What is it with you and the rampant rolefishing?

This is not exactly what I'd call an offhand comment. Either The Fonz believes XReyoX is deliberately fishing or not. It looks to be just thrown out there to see if anyone would run with it.

The circumstances are a million miles from 'infinitely unlikely.' IH's death scene was kinda mysterious on the subject of his alignment- good reason to suspect, etc, but no firm proof- it didn't say out-and-out that IH was town.

I find this comment to be ridiculous. IH came up with the same coloring as a Retired Cop and a Gardener. I don't know if the Mod got lazy on the other coloring or some event is preventing it, but if we're going to ignore the information from death scenes, we might as well be using random.org to finish out the game.
OTU was BLUE Retired Cop
Alex was RED ESE
Mr. Flay was BLUE Gardener
Mneme was uncolored Baker
IH was BLUE Mayor
DGB was uncolored Silversmith
Shanba was uncolored Strongman
MoS was uncolored Lycanthrope

Hence, we leave N9V alive for a few more days, but don't necessarily lynch on his recommendation. We basically ignore him for a while. We don't have to commit to leaving him alive to anywhere near endgame.

This comment implying that we won't be at endgame in a few days, which is likely false.

No! It's not! It would be lying if we could prove that IH appeared innocent to investigations, AND N9V is definitely not insane. As we cannot prove either of those things, we cannot say for sure that N9V is lying.

Only N9V and possible scumbuddies can be sure. But, I believe the Mod's coloring of IH is more credible than The Fonz's speculation.

No, I didn't. I never said N9V is definitely town. This is an obvious and blatant misrepresentation. I said, we have enough reason to think N9V might still be town that it would clearly be a mistake to lynch him today. There are positions which fall between 'lynch him now' and 'never lynch him.' Namely,

keep him alive for another four or so days, collecting investigations, then if he hasn't been nightkilled by then, we think about lynching him.

Now that the 3 day immunity has gathered little resistance, we should increase it to "four days or so." Well, we have 13 players, losing 2 or 3 a day. After 4 days of waiting, at our current rate will garner 8 to 12 casualties. Keep in mind The Fonz said "4 days or so," implying it would be just as safe to wait 5 days, yielding 10 to 15 casualties(assuming that was possible), then we can THINK about N9V lying.

Am I the only one who sees the flaw here? I'm still unsure about N9V's alignment. I can't tell whether The Fonz is protecting a scumbuddy or trying to latch to a townie and ride out the storm for his efforts. I also don't like The Fonz playing stupid about Alex being scum. His name is in Red. He had an S&M torture room in his house! What else would he be?

I did like the way Fuldu seems to be walking on eggshells on page 58. I think The Fonz's speculation has him worried. My guess is BM & Fuldu are buddies and Fuldu want's to help BM while staying out of harms way. At this point, I'd be willing to vote BM, Fuldu or The Fonz. However, I think Bird should be forced to speak.

[Kison]

I am surprised several of you are willing to give Bird1111 another day pass on this game. He doesn't need any prodding from the Mod. The Mod already prodded him in the past and told us he didn't need any more. (Post 1103 for those skimming.) Basically he spent 3 days hiding and no one blinked an eye, except Flay and XReyoX, 1 of which wound up dead.

You must've forgotten to mention me, there. I have pushed to wake him up. This is giving me deja vu of Flay two days ago.

I have been keeping an eye on The Fonz. His proposal to keep N9V alive for multiple days, especially after what happened, is ridiculous, especially considering that N9V claims to have been roleblocked. If that is the case, then we can't even test N9V as The Fonz claims. I can see the scenario of The Fonz being teamed with N9V, where he's trying to keep him alive long enough where his lynch won't even matter.

[The Fonz]

I am surprised several of you are willing to give Bird1111 another day pass on this game. He doesn't need any prodding from the Mod. The Mod already prodded him in the past and told us he didn't need any more. (Post 1103 for those skimming.) Basically he spent 3 days hiding and no one blinked an eye, except Flay and XReyoX, 1 of which wound up dead.

I really don't trust The Fonz either. The way his posts attempt to move the crowd 1 step at a time seems manipulative.

Pah, he's got a guilty. Whether you feel like accepting it at face value or not, it's testable.

After no disapproval from the crowd...

He'd have to be really stupid scum to claim right now. If scum are really stupid, they tend to give themselves away sooner or later anyway. Hence, I see no reason not to test his result.

Pray tell, what exactly is wrong with this? It makes no sense to cast suspicion on a claimed cop with a testable result, and anyone doing so is quite likely to have an ulterior motive.

After IH's lynch and some accusations get directed at N9V...

The important thing you're forgetting is, if he's not the real mafia-finding cop, THERE'S ALMOST CERTAINLY ANOTHER ONE OUT THERE. So unless and until he gets counterclaimed, we shouldn't lynch him.

Here, he's offered a trade to a real cop abandoning his cover to confirm or deny what N9V has done.

That's complete BS. You can't possibly believe that's what i was doing there. I was not, and it was obvious that I was not, suggesting that the 'real cop' blow his cover here and now. See the next part you quoted, emphasis mine:

If there's someone capable of counterclaiming,

they'll come out eventually or be NKed,

and there's no harm in leaving N9V alive until that point.

Again, reiterating N9V should receive lynch immunity until a real cop exposes himself.

Yup, fakeclaims this early have a habit of resolving themselves. Either the real cop dies, or has enough info to feel he's able to benefit the town by coming out. This is almost certain to happen before endgame (given the dubious nature of cop claims in endgame). Hence, there is little real risk in keeping N9V alive for the time being.

I'd suggest leaving N9V alive, but not lynching solely on the basis of his results, for a few days yet.

Here he suggests we wait a few days before deciding on N9V. Well let's see. In 3 days we've lost 8 people. We're averaging over 2 fatalities a day. In a few days, assuming "few" means 3 we will average another 7 deaths, leaving 6 alive to come to a decision.

Wrong. We are not averaging over two a day. We have had one twice, and three once. That averages to two precisely, and one of the killing groups is dead. Assuming that there is not a fourth killing group (unlikely, given two nights of only one kill) there ought to be a

maximum

of six dead, with the possibility of fewer.

Given that there's also the chance that the situation resolves itself, I'd be quite happy with that as a worst-case scenario. The worst case scenario for lynching the cop today is much worse. The best case scenario isn't any better for lynching him now rather than later, either.

If IH was a Miller role, wouldn't that show up on his role tag? I think N9V is lying. As much as I don't trust BM & Fuldu, I think their appraisal of the situation is accurate.

It didn't show up on Al's tag whether he was cult, mafia or mason. Why would it come up on IH's? We seem to have a limited-reveal game. Deal with it.

Massive FOS: anyone pushing an N9V lynch today

Here, The Fonz attempts to assert himself as an authority on this game's theme, ironically being a day 3 replacement. Sorry, if I don't just "deal with it" and place my vote where I'm told based on your coaxing.

Ad hominem attack. I did not state I was an authority on the game, I point out something that was available for anyone to look at. It's quite clear Akbar, and it's there in plain English, written by Phoebus- we have a limited-reveal game. We have been given the rolename of each dead player, and nothing else.

@Kison: How does n9v trying to investigate you make him not a scum?

What is it with you and the rampant rolefishing?

This is not exactly what I'd call an offhand comment. Either The Fonz believes XReyoX is deliberately fishing or not. It looks to be just thrown out there to see if anyone would run with it.

Here we see you utterly reaching in order to fabricate a case. Yes, that post gave me the impression that Reyo was rolefishing, as did a previous one.

The circumstances are a million miles from 'infinitely unlikely.' IH's death scene was kinda mysterious on the subject of his alignment- good reason to suspect, etc, but no firm proof- it didn't say out-and-out that IH was town.

I find this comment to be ridiculous. IH came up with the same coloring as a Retired Cop and a Gardener. I don't know if the Mod got lazy on the other coloring or some event is preventing it, but if we're going to ignore the information from death scenes, we might as well be using random.org to finish out the game.
OTU was BLUE Retired Cop
Alex was RED ESE
Mr. Flay was BLUE Gardener
Mneme was uncolored Baker
IH was BLUE Mayor
DGB was uncolored Silversmith
Shanba was uncolored Strongman
MoS was uncolored Lycanthrope

Alex was NOT red. In the flavour text of the death scene, the words

ESE Member

was coloured red, because the flavour had those words written in blood upon his membership card. The actual game message:

al4xz - ESE Member - strangled - Night 1

Was written in black, bolded.

It's also worth noting:

OverTheUnder - Retired Cop - banished - Day 1

Here, the entire sentence is written in blue. Normally, when mods are trying to convey alignment by colour-coding, It's written in this kinda format:

The Fonz,

Vanilla Townie

, has been killed.

or

The Fonz,

Mafia Goon,

has been lynched.

With just the name or the role coloured. The fact that when it has been written in blue, the whole thing's been in blue, makes me think the colour-coding is meaningless.

Also- youfind it ridiculous to use deathscene flavour, in a limited-reveal game, yet you're happy to use colouring when both town and scum roles have come up uncoloured previously?

Hence, we leave N9V alive for a few more days, but don't necessarily lynch on his recommendation. We basically ignore him for a while. We don't have to commit to leaving him alive to anywhere near endgame.

This comment implying that we won't be at endgame in a few days, which is likely false.

Endgame to me means three or four alive. So, no, we won't.

No! It's not! It would be lying if we could prove that IH appeared innocent to investigations, AND N9V is definitely not insane. As we cannot prove either of those things, we cannot say for sure that N9V is lying.

Only N9V and possible scumbuddies can be sure. But, I believe the Mod's coloring of IH is more credible than The Fonz's speculation.

Precisely, only N9V and putative scumbuddies can be sure. This was in a direct response to Battle Mage saying that we

could

be sure n9V was lying.

Also, even if blue did mean innocent, why would it necessarily imply not-miller? Most millers are not death millers. your attempt to tie 'IH was written in blue' to 'N9V is lying' is ridiculous.

No, I didn't. I never said N9V is definitely town. This is an obvious and blatant misrepresentation. I said, we have enough reason to think N9V might still be town that it would clearly be a mistake to lynch him today. There are positions which fall between 'lynch him now' and 'never lynch him.' Namely,

keep him alive for another four or so days, collecting investigations, then if he hasn't been nightkilled by then, we think about lynching him.

Now that the 3 day immunity has gathered little resistance, we should increase it to "four days or so."

Outright lie. I never suggested specifically a three-day period. So now you're openly accusing me of changing my position from something I never actually said, which is scummy as hell. Or are you actually trying to argue that 'a few' could not possibly be read as 'four or so?'

Well, we have 13 players, losing 2 or 3 a day. After 4 days of waiting, at our current rate will garner 8 to 12 casualties. Keep in mind The Fonz said "4 days or so," implying it would be just as safe to wait 5 days, yielding 10 to 15 casualties(assuming that was possible), then we can THINK about N9V lying.

I've already explained why 'two or three a day' is false. And 'four or so' could equally imply three as five, yet of course you assume five. Also: IT WAS A MISTAKE. As I said in my reply to BM earlier, I shouldn't have said four, I thought there were a couple more alive than there were. Frankly, we'll be in a position to know if he's insane or not with two more investigations. Two guilties, we can lynch Raffles. An innocent and a guilty, we can lynch the guilty, if he comes up innocent, we lynch the other two. Two innocents isn't so useful, but it at least tells us he is not insane, so there's no real reason to lynch anyone he's investigated- plus if we lynch N9V at that point, we might get his sanity. If he claims no-result a couple of times, then we probably have to lynch him.

And bear in mind, this is all assuming nothing else happens to confirm or refute N9V's story in the meantime. I do think Kison's thing about the 'weird happenings' actually lends credibility to N9V's claim.

I also don't like The Fonz playing stupid about Alex being scum. His name is in Red. He had an S&M torture room in his house! What else would he be?

Again, this is not true. His name was uncoloured, and he's into S&M and a member of a secret organisation. There are non-scum explanation for this. It's not like anyone's been killed in an S&M type way.

[Akbar]

Wrong. We are not averaging over two a day.

We have had one twice, and three once. That averages to two precisely,

and one of the killing groups is dead. Assuming that there is not a fourth killing group (unlikely, given two nights of only one kill) there ought to be a maximum of six dead, with the possibility of fewer.

Let me slow this down a bit. We started with 21 players. 3 Days have passed. We are missing 8 of them. 3 times 2 is NOT 8.

OverTheUnder - Retired Cop - Banished - Day 1
al4xz - ESE Member - Strangled - Night 1

Mr. Flay - Gardener at the Estate - Dropped dead - Day 2
mneme replaces Scarecrow - Baker - Baked to a crisp - Night 2

IH - Mayor of Lupieri - Voted out of office - Day 3
DrippingGoofball - Silversmith - Bludgeoned - Night 3
Shanba - Strongman - Eaten - Night 3
Mastermind of Sin - Lycanthrope - Shot - Night 3

Please explain to mean how 2 deaths, 2 deaths and 4 deaths became "one twice and three once".

I've already explained why 'two or three a day' is false.

And 'four or so' could equally imply three as five

, yet of course you assume five.

Is English your native language? Does anyone else here think "4 or so" could mean 3?
If you don't want your statement to imply the possibility of 5, don't say "or so", just say 4. Here's a better idea. How about checking on how many people we have remaining before suggesting bogus strategy.

Alex was NOT red. In the flavour text of the death scene, the words ESE Member was coloured red, because the flavour had those words written in blood upon his membership card.

Let me see if I got this straight. Your saying that an organization that writes their names in blood on memberships cards is Town-Based? Sure.

Again, this is not true. His name was uncoloured, and he's into S&M and a member of a secret organisation.

There are non-scum explanation for this.

(

Possible admission of affiliation

) It's not like anyone's been killed in an S&M type way.

So by that logic, we can't even be sure MoS was one of the wolves. His death says Lycanthrope. Lycanthrope could be any "wear" creature. Maybe he was a Wear-Badger http://www.weebls-stuff.com/toons/badgers2/ and the wolves in the title are actually just Timber Wolves from Oregon.

[The Fonz]

Please explain to mean how 2 deaths, 2 deaths and 4 deaths became "one twice and three once".

One NK night one. One night two. Three night three. For the hard of thinking, that averages out at two per night.

I've already explained why 'two or three a day' is false.

And 'four or so' could equally imply three as five

, yet of course you assume five.

Is English your native language? Does anyone else here think "4 or so" could mean 3?

Is it yours? Does anyone else here think 'four or so' means five any more than it does three? Four or so means 'roughly four.'

Alex was NOT red. In the flavour text of the death scene, the words ESE Member was coloured red, because the flavour had those words written in blood upon his membership card.

Let me see if I got this straight. Your saying that an organization that writes their names in blood on memberships cards is Town-Based? Sure.

You think an organisation that has membership cards AT ALL is mafia? Does Tony Soprano walk around with a little card that say 'Mobster #256753' and has a little mugshot on it? Maybe gives details of his local branch?

And besides, this isn't even the point. You claimed his name was written in red. I proved you not to be telling the truth in this regard. You, of course, decide to change the subject.

Again, this is not true. His name was uncoloured, and he's into S&M and a member of a secret organisation.

There are non-scum explanation for this.

(

Possible admission of affiliation

) It's not like anyone's been killed in an S&M type way.

So by that logic, we can't even be sure MoS was one of the wolves. His death says Lycanthrope. Lycanthrope could be any "wear" creature. Maybe he was a Wear-Badger http://www.weebls-stuff.com/toons/badgers2/ and the wolves in the title are actually just Timber Wolves from Oregon.

This is just so utterly ridiculous that I'm not going to justify it with a response.

[Akbar]

If anyone would like to see the original Mod-written Color code, they can be found at posts:
530, 532, 1212, 1320

[The Fonz]

533, not 532, is the one which formally announces Al's death.

[TBuG]

This is really sketchy logic that you're using.

[Kison]

Is it yours? Does anyone else here think 'four or so' means five any more than it does three? Four or so means 'roughly four.'

Typically, "four or so" would imply that four is the minimum. It's only an estimation that could linger downwards when you're trying to recall the number of something without actual figures, unlike the game we're playing right now.

The Fonz, are you trying to say that al4xz was not scum?

[Fuldu]

That averages to two precisely, and one of the killing groups is dead.

Okay, the math is a little weird, partly because Akbar is including lynches and Flay, whereas The Fonz isn't, and partly because the average of 1, 1, and 3, isn't exactly 2. It's actually less, so it still supports Fonz's point if all you're interested in is night deaths, but I think Akbar's method of counting makes better sense if we're talking about how long the game is likely to continue. Lynches and other miscellaneous deaths contribute to hastening the end of the game.

[Kison]

8 deaths, 3 days/nights

8 / 3 = 2.67 per day/night.

Since you need to have a night to have another day, then you can't include one while excluding the other.

[The Fonz]

The Fonz, are you trying to say that al4xz was not scum?

I'm saying I don't know. I certainly don't think he's mafia or Wolf. The logical possibilities that remain are cult and mason, and he could be either of those.

[Kison]

So, you think the red ESE text is inconclusive, then?

[The Fonz]

The flavour text? Absolutely. As I said before, the actual death announcement was in black, not in red.

[Fuldu]

The flavour text? Absolutely. As I said before, the actual death announcement was in black, not in red.

But the flavortext evidence that IH was a miller is so strong that you're willing to give N9V a pass, not only on whether he's telling the truth, but even on the possibility that he might be insane?

[theopor_COD]

Bird seems to be around, I wonder if he will grace us with his presence.

[The Fonz]

The flavour text? Absolutely. As I said before, the actual death announcement was in black, not in red.

But the flavortext evidence that IH was a miller is so strong that you're willing to give N9V a pass, not only on whether he's telling the truth, but even on the possibility that he might be insane?

Nope. I really don't think you can get that from what I wrote. See my post 1480, 'I think we'll be in a position to know if he's insane with two more investigations.'

[Battle Mage]

im totally lost in this game now...

[Kison]

That is very unlike you to admit, BM.

[Akbar]

Heated argument to totally lost in 1 page? Hehe.
Actually Kison, he probably thinks his safest play is to clam up right now. Maybe, me and The Fonz arguing about IH and OTU being alive or dead will be a sufficient distraction.

I can't believe Bird is getting another pass. Flay was right. What's the point of playing if we're going to let players permanently lurk the whole game. Guess he's got friends looking out for him.

Unvote, Vote BattleMage

[Battle Mage]

lol possibly the most non-existant excuse for a vote ever. :p

[theopor_COD]

lol possibly the most non-existant excuse for a vote ever. :p

If it was a baseless vote. I'd say you had a case, however I think Akbar made it clear only like four posts ago he found you suspicious.

My guess is BM & Fuldu are buddies and Fuldu want's to help BM while staying out of harms way. At this point, I'd be willing to vote BM, Fuldu or The Fonz. However, I think Bird should be forced to speak.

The fact that you've forgotten where you are in this game, gives more credence to the substantial shift in your playstyle here.