Open 571- Pick Your Poison Game over

[Fluminator]

Sure. So that means you're doing one today? Awesome.
Hey Gaiden, can you do one too please?
I'm starting to feel like a broken record.

[SXTLHGaiden]

i'm really bad at reads.
but, i still want you lynched.
i'm now itching to vote you....

[Fluminator]

Do you have reasons or is it gut?

[SXTLHGaiden]

Gaiden never has reasons.
when gaiden does have reasons, they tend to be wrong. funny how it works.

[Fluminator]

...
Well, if you think I'm scum, who do you think my partner would be?

[SXTLHGaiden]

alc, but that is me probably projecting reinoe's stance onto myself.

[Alchemist21]

shall we lynch that kuro?

woo, Kuro-chan has verified my town status.
time to dance.

Here are some D1 Matsumi - Gaiden interactions. Gaiden buddies Matsumi while Matsumi tries to pass off Gaiden as town.

i realize that i have the option of hammering a midget if that fake vc is right...
tempting...so very tempting

i just want to make sure i have enough time to properly think this through without fear of a hammer.

Expressed desire to hammer midget (which Matsumi later did) then when a wagon forms on Matsumi D2, Gaiden wants me to unvote so a hammer doesn't come down.

@mod: what happens if the jailkeeper self targets?

To me this looks like breadcrumbing for a future JK fakeclaim. I can't see any reason for why this would be asked, and the later-posted strategy of Gaiden's doesn't bring this idea up again.

You're logic is faulty.
Scum would keep me around for obvious reasons.
i'm not seeing the whole "safe kill" thing.

What "obvious reasons" do the scum have to keep you alive? Hell, if Matsumi was going to claim vig with you as town, I would think you or Doublade would have been killed. At least that could have been more believable than vigging Ank.

[SXTLHGaiden]

really, you can't guess the obvious reasons?
Have you seen how useless I am?
anyway, i'm convinced.
VOTE: Alchemist

[SXTLHGaiden]

the reason was that the role pm for JK didn't say that the JK couldn't self-target.
If they could, then proper play would be to claim, then self target forever.

[SXTLHGaiden]

also, i had already pretty much said that I was a VT by the time i posted that question.
but someone who had read my ISO wouldn't have caught that wouldn't they?

[Alchemist21]

I went back through your ISO and never saw a VT claim.

And you probably would "claim and self-target" as a JK if you were scum. That would be a reasonable explanation for why you weren't getting night-killed and why you weren't stopping any night kills.

VOTE: Gaiden

[SXTLHGaiden]

gaiden is currently working on a strategy that seems like it could work fairly well.
it even involves me lynching myself.
this will be fun

So, if an IC claims, then any remaining PR's know the exact setup.
So if IC + vig, then matsumi is confirmed if they hit scum or there are two kills. So, shooting randomly they have 3/8 chance of hitting scum if a VT elects to die to lynch today.
If IC + JK, JK saves IC. we will see at most 1 kill, so logical play would be to lynch matsumi tomorrow.
if IC + tracker, tracker tracks whoever and we lynch matsumi tomorrow.
this allows the non-ic pr to know setup without outing themselves.
the issues come when there is no IC.

very vague, but it's there.

[Fluminator]

Please unvote. I am confident Krystal is scum and suspect Doublade is the partner. This is very bad.

[Alchemist21]

[/unvote]

Ok, I'll humor Flum here since he's my top town read.

Why do you think it's KB and Doublade, flum?

[Alchemist21]

UNVOTE:

[Fluminator]

Long post incoming. I really hope Gaiden is scum.

[Fluminator]

Let's start from the beginning.
Krystal Day 1:
The main notable thing Krystal did D1 was do that head scratching reaction test with Anatole. The reaction test was useless.

Well if you were scum you were supposed to either lurk it out or go with what I was saying.
If you were town you were supposed to call me out on being full of shit.
tl;dr: reaction testing.

Either town or maf would react this way. useless
I stopped pressing Krystal when Matsumi said Krystal would not accidentally scum slip.
The only other thing of note was how he didn't ever seem to mention the RandomMidget wagon. Not saying that's a scum tell though.

Day 2: I personally had a mild town read on Krystal this day because she was the only one arguing against a lynch on a testable power role. Also because I was distracted by Reino.
She really only pressed Majiffy this day and was hard pressed by Majiffy and Anatole.

VOTE: Krystal Bald

She's avoiding voting me in favor of

anyone else

while soft-supporting a wagon on me.

Scum afraid of blowback when I flip town.

I didn't think much of this at the time because I didn't see Krystal doing this.

Fast forward to day 4.

I have no idea who to vote for. Majiffy being town kinda screwed this game up for me.

I have seen scum post messages like this before after leading a lynch on town, but I have never seen town say this. (The fact that their whole game gets screwed up by the flip.) Town naturally thinks of possible scenarios where their read ends up being town. I find it very hard to believe a player as good as Krystal never considered Majiffy would be town. The fact that her game got screwed is hogwash and a very fake reaction to show surprise.
For example, when I lynched Randommidget and Majiffy, I had solid reads on where to go had they come up town. If I didn't I wouldn't be comfortable lynching them.

Another thing that re-alerted me about Krystal was, (These are Mantis's posts)

@Krystal: this is really important to me, are both your heads in agreeance that Reino is town?

ya, i think he is town. so does nik. why is it so important?

k, flum is prob town.

it's my sentiments as well regarding reinoe

(Nikanor also thought both me and Reino was town but that's less important.)

Day 4, seven people left, Reino votes for me, and then

VOTE: flum

-mantis

From his point of view, me and Reino were town. He joins someone he thinks is town onto another town read of his. That put me at L-2 with two scum still unvoted. And he does it just as a pressure vote?

nothing wrong with a bit of pressure...

i also think reinoe is town so




reinoe, what are your thoughts on alc?

This is ironic since they really didn't like it when I pressure voted Doublade in day 2.
This action makes no sense as town. Gaiden keeps expressing interest to kill me for no reason so Krystal knew I would easily get another vote. This put his town read in a position for maf to hammer. For a pointless pressure vote. Krystal's alleged pressure vote put the town extremely close to losing from his point of view. (Had I been lynched there is no way Reino would have survived in Lylo.)
Had mantis said he voted for me because I changed into being a scum read, it would make a little more sense.

Also, Aphix implied he would be going against Krystal today. That's the only reason I can think of him being killed over Alchemist. He even said he was going to make a post about Krystal. (He ran out of time because Reino self-hammered. good one Reino) The only other reason being WIFOM, but Aphix was subtle enough that I highly doubt they would bother. And it is hard to shake off Majffy and Anatole thinking Krystal was scum too.

tldr:
Voting a town read for a useless reason late in the game that put town very close to losing from their point of view.
Fake and exaggerated surprise on Majiffy's flip. The reaction being forced shows she wasn't actually surprised.
Many dead thinking Krystal is scum, (Aphix, Majiffy, Anatole) for there own reasons.

I'll end it here for now. I want to know what everyone thinks. Including Krystal.

[Alchemist21]

Flum, quite a few people started scumreading you during the latter half of D2, but I think it was mainly the tone of your posts. KB never outright states they scumread you, but it was implied with that Bill O'Reily jab which came some time after they said you were town. Second, if KB had townreads on Reinoe and Gaiden, then they could have felt those 2 were on to something when they were scumreading you. KB's vote on you during yesterday's phase came after Reinoe posted the reasons for his vote on you.

If KB agreed with the reasoning and is town, there wouldn't be much harm in putting you in L-2 at that point in their mind because

A) You were scum and the wagon was correct.

B) Both scum were off your wagon and a 2-vote quickhammer would be too obvious going into LyLo.

If the scum wanted you mislynched before Reinoe, they would have had to build a separate scumcase on you instead of following Reinoe, because then Reinoe would have been proven wrong if you flipped town, but they couldn't scumread him for it after you flipped because they followed the same logic that got you lynched.

I don't think they really felt worried by you voting Doublade. Their experience told them voting lurkers doesn't work. Calling it flailing was definitely a stretch though. There's a current site meta about not voting lurkers, so that was probably a factor.

The reaction to Majiffy is null to me. Your experience may tell you different, but sometimes it's hard for one person to imagine the alternate scenario. The associative reads can be hard to spot, especially when you have townies self voting. The reason the town started seeing Matsumi as scum was because of the hammer vote on midget. All the mislynches since then were self-hammered.

Ank, Reinoe, and Anatole all died with you in their scumreads as well. Looking at dead townies' scumreads can help, but for this game I think they'd be inaccurate. (I know I used a similar reason against Matsumi, but that was before the flips showed how inaccurate this town has been.)

If Doublade and Gaiden are the scumteam it makes Aphix the perfect choice for the Night Kill. Reinoe flipped town after pointing to you and I as a scumteam, while Aphix dies with a potential scumread on KB. All it would have taken would be for KB to suspect one of us, or one of us to suspect KB, enough to vote them and give the opportunity for a quickhammer. I built a scumcase on Gaiden and look what happened. An OMGUS reaction and still no reason for why he's scumreading us, other than Reinoe's stance.

Thoughts?

[Fluminator]

That's actually a good point that a lot of dead people wanted me lynched too. I guess that wouldn't be a good reason. To be fair, Ankamius's reasons were really really bad. So bad that he was my strongest scum read when Random flipped town and I was ready to press him the next day. But regardless, I retract this argument.

The Bill O'Reiley jab was done by Nikanor. (And what does that even mean? lol) Mantis was the one who called me town and then voted for me.
Do they have a town read on Gaiden? It's hard to keep track of which one suspects which. I believe Nikanor was suspicious of Aphix and Doublade at the time.

If I was lynched that day though, I am pretty sure Reino would have received most of the blame and the scum could have hid behind him.
A 2 vote quickhammer wouldn't have happened, but Gaiden voting for me easily could have. If you, Aphix, or Doublade hammered me, it would have been suspicious, but Scum would still have a near confirmed myslynch in Reino. I could be overthinking it and Mantis was like "yolo" but they seem to think things through. Maybe he changed his mind and though I was scum, but when I asked him he just said it was for a little bit of pressure.

I agree it can be hard to imagine an alternate scenario, but he definitely had other scum reads at the time. Aphix being a major one. He seems to be lying when he says "I have no idea who to vote for" which makes me thinks his motive for saying it was to come across as surprised. And it comes off as really insincere.

I'm going to make a post looking up each persons potential motives for each potential death. I'll see if it leads me to anything useful.

Also,

Gaiden

. It's clear your vote is an Omgus vote. You like doing those. A lot. But you don't do your usual Omgus votes, with no thought behind them, in Lylo. I know you don't really give a crap about the outcome of the game, but a lot of people have spent a good portion of their time invested in this game and don't want to lose because of your lulz attitude.
Unless you are scum, then keep voting him.

[Alchemist21]

Here's what the o'reilly thing means.

[caledfwitch]

im thinking alchemist and flum are scum together
give me two seconds

[caledfwitch]

yes they are
isoing the two and searching for opinions on each other




they townread each other for no particular reason other than "oh theyre doing stuff to help town" and not citing specific examples
so theyre kinda buddies for no reason

but we all know theyre buddies so that they can take town out together

[caledfwitch]

VOTE: alchemist

eat shit

[Fluminator]

Shoot, this is it. Krystal just needs to hammer. Gaiden, please unvote if you are town.

[Fluminator]

That vote came out of nowhere. Surely you see this Gaiden.
Me and Alchemist are asking each others opinions right now because we are the only ones who are posting!! I've been asking for your opinions to but you don't answer them.