Mafia v. Wolves Redux: Finally Over!

[Phoebus]

No votes yet on this new day!

[The Fonz]

Ok, what the hell? From what I can tell, IH was town. Now, ~N9V~ is either scum and lying, or an insane cop of some sort.

I was thinking about this overnight, I think the Mayor might have been an unrecruited traitor who came up scum. I'm a little surprised Raffles wasn't vigged to give us more info on N9V to be honest.

We also know that Shanba killed Mastermind of Sin. So he wasn't lying about being the Vigilante.

Killed DGB, you mean.

We know that someone also killed Mastermind of Sin. Since our Vigilante is dead, I'm going to guess that it was the ESE?

I think the much simpler explanation would be that MoS was the mafia kill. Shooting seems a pretty standard mafia kill method to me.

[Kison]

Have we yet to

confirm

that ESE is NOT the Mafia?

[Kison]

~N9V~, did you investigate someone last night?

[The Fonz]

Have we yet to

confirm

that ESE is NOT the Mafia?

I don't quite get what you're saying here. Taking your words at face value, no, we have not yet confirmed ESE =/= mafia, because we have had no-one die and come up as simply 'mafia.'

[theopor_COD]

Have we yet to

confirm

that ESE is NOT the Mafia?

This alone makes me think it wasn't the ESE who carried out the kill of MoS.

One of the first things the Estate had done when the first news of werewolves came into Lupieri was to invest in silver bullets...

As for IH. The flavour surrounding his death is contradictory. "nothing malevolent" but "covered his tracks well". The colours are damn confusing especially as MoS is the same as Shanba and DGB.

[Battle Mage]

no, Shanba killed DGB.
i agree that IH was almost certainly town, and thus i am certain that N9V is scum. having an insane cop in such a naturally confusing game would just be silly...

i think todays choice is pretty obvious. Didnt N9V say that he could only detect 1 scumgroup?
im willing to wager that he took a gamble here, and guessed that IH was in the OPPOSING SCUMGROUP. thats why he changed his mind about which he could investigate. The way he saw it, he would either buy his buddies another day, or become confirmed cop, and live alot longer.

Vote: N9V

Ok, what the hell? From what I can tell, IH was town. Now, ~N9V~ is either scum and lying, or an insane cop of some sort.

We also know that Shanba killed Mastermind of Sin. So he wasn't lying about being the Vigilante.

We know that Mastermind of Sin killed Shanba. He was a werewolf.

We know that someone also killed Mastermind of Sin. Since our Vigilante is dead, I'm going to guess that it was the ESE?

[Kison]

Fonz, what I'm saying is that Mafia could be ESE. We don't really know. We can guess it was one or the other(which could be the same thing).

Anyways, as for IH... I noticed the "covering his tracks" thing too. However, his role name is simply "Mayor of Lupieri" I don't think that if he were ESE/Mafia, that that

slightly

important tag would be left out of his role name. Notice that al4x & MoS both have something indicative of their alignment in their role's name.

i agree that IH was almost certainly town, and thus i am certain that N9V is scum. having an insane cop in such a naturally confusing game would just be silly...

Hey Infamous BATTLE MAGE, the SANITY of a cop wasn't just some made up myth. People use it in their games. What makes this game so special?

The second part of what you're saying is definitely plausible. However, I would like to hear what he has to say for himself first.

[The Greg]

Ok, what the hell? From what I can tell, IH was town. Now, ~N9V~ is either scum and lying, or an insane cop of some sort.

IH might have been a miller, maybe even a GF; the lynch scene was pretty vague as to his alignment.

We know that someone also killed Mastermind of Sin. Since our Vigilante is dead, I'm going to guess that it was the ESE?

I find it highly unlikely that ESE is responsible for that kill. The MoS kill is inconsistent flavor-wise with what we know of ESE.

Also, I find it interesting that the color coding of dead roles seems to have stopped. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

[Fuldu]

We know that someone also killed Mastermind of Sin. Since our Vigilante is dead, I'm going to guess that it was the ESE?

Unless Night One's strangling came from the wolves (since Shanba disavowed that kill), that would mean ESE killed one of their own with al4xz. I think this is further evidence that ESE is one of three scum groups, possibly the Mafia, but I still think more likely to be a non-killing group like a cult.

As for color coding, my recollection is that IH wasn't blue initially. Possibly the colors don't appear for a certain amount of time, or more probably, Phoebus just doesn't always remember to do it, then sees it and goes "Oh, yeah."

[DrippingGoofball]

Krappp! I'm dead! That sucks.

Go town!

[XReyoX]

@n9v: Have you got an explanation to why IH appears to be town. Could you also tell us that wether you've got an innocent/guilty result last night (and if possible, who you've investigated)?

I hate to believe in what BM said but I currently think that n9v is more likely scum than an insane cop. The cops in this game can only detect one scum group, making them 1/2 as powerful as the ones in normal games already. I think the best way to verify what n9v's role is is to see what he have got from last night.

Kison analysis to last night scene is accurate, except he has got Mos and DGB confused.(pointed out by Fonz).

@Greg. If IH is a GF. He wouldn't be detected as guilty by n9v.

[The Fonz]

@n9v: Have you got an explanation to why IH appears to be town. Could you also tell us that wether you've got an innocent/guilty result last night (and if possible, who you've investigated)?

Why on Earth would N9V have that information? Mods don't tend to tell cops 'oh, you just investigated a miller' or whatever. If he's a cop, he just knows who he investigated and what he got told their alignment was.

The important thing you're forgetting is, if he's not the real mafia-finding cop, THERE'S ALMOST CERTAINLY ANOTHER ONE OUT THERE. So unless and until he gets counterclaimed, we shouldn't lynch him.

[Fuldu]

The cops in this game can only detect one scum group, making them 1/2 as powerful as the ones in normal games already.

Unless I'm mistaken, we're assuming that to be true because of N9V's claim. If he's lying, then it may well be the case that there's a full cop out there.

The important thing you're forgetting is, if he's not the real mafia-finding cop, THERE'S ALMOST CERTAINLY ANOTHER ONE OUT THERE. So unless and until he gets counterclaimed, we shouldn't lynch him.

Yeah, not really. Counterclaiming as a cop, especially this early in the game, really wouldn't be very good play. If a cop claim is a lie, it usually doesn't take long to figure it out; when that happens, the town should lynch, even if there's no counterclaim. Consequently, the real cop should wait for that to happen rather than outing himself with a counterclaim.

Also, in a game this size, it's not totally infeasible that there would be two half-cops and a full cop, although two of each type of half-cop would be unusual. In any event, if N9V turns up scum, you've just bought yourself a long hard look, The Fonz.

-----

As for actually determining where to go today, I'd point out that the alternative for checking N9V's claim is to lynch his other investigation, Raffles. If he's insane, then Raffles should be mafia. I've been wanting to lynch Raffles since Day Two, and nothing he's done has made me less inclined to do so. For now, I'm still willing to cut N9V enough slack that I'd rather lynch somebody I'm suspicious of for other reasons in order to verify/disprove N9V's claim.

vote: Raffles

[The Fonz]

Bah. Unless it's endgame, or the claimed cop's come out with investigations that are incompatible with

any

sanity, I don't see how you'd figure out that a cop claim is a lie with enough certainty to lynch without a counterclaim. If there's someone capable of counterclaiming, they'll come out eventually or be NKed, and there's no harm in leaving N9V alive until that point.

Given the flavour surrounding IH's death, I think it's pretty likely he was a role that came up guilty to cop investigations, whether miller or traitor, so your pushing of a lynch of a guy with an innocent on him as a 'test' seems deeply suspect to me, an attempt to get an easy mislynch. I'd suggest leaving N9V alive, but not lynching solely on the basis of his results, for a few days yet.

[Kison]

Bird, been waiting to hear from you. What do you two think about Raffles at

this

point of the game?

As for me, I think going for Raffles is a very valid path to take today as it could help with checking N9V's sanity. I'd like for both N9V and Raffles to speak up, however.

[Kison]

And The Fonz, just because Raffles came up innocent to N9V doesn't guarantee that we will mislynch in the event that N9V is a sane cop. Remember, he only claimed to be a half cop. We're looking at the possibility of 3 scum groups.

[~N9V~]

I have only one good explanation for why IH turned out Scum for me. Mabey he is the counter GodFather type role? Where if investigated, he turns up scum. Cuz all politics are scummy in one manner or another. Also, I couldn't veiw anyone last night, because of 'strange occurences'. I still beleive I'm sane, and Raffles isn't the way to go today.

Also,

Vote BM

Your willing to kill a claimed cop because of some little fight of me being sane/insane. Even so, if I'm insane, I can still contribute lots. I'm beleiving your scum as of now, and thereso, your the play today.

[Kison]

Who did you

try

to view last night? Your answer could help me determine whether or not you are lying.

[Fuldu]

I have only one good explanation for why IH turned out Scum for me. Mabey he is the counter GodFather type role? Where if investigated, he turns up scum. Cuz all politics are scummy in one manner or another.

Yeah, that's generally called a Miller-type role, which is something several other people have suggested. The thing is, that's always what scum who have claimed cop are going to say when their "guilty" result turns out not to be.

Also, I couldn't veiw anyone last night, because of 'strange occurences'. I still beleive I'm sane, and Raffles isn't the way to go today.

Yeah, this does not inspire confidence. For one thing, insane cops are a lot more common than millers. And rarely are insane cops given much of a hint regarding their sanity, so they often continue to believe that they're sane, despite evidence to the contrary.

Secondly, "strange occurrences" is pretty vague, whereas Shanba got a fairly clear picture of why his attempt on Akbar didn't work. And in addition to being vague, "I didn't get a result last night" is another choice approach for scum who have claimed cop.

Also,

Vote BM

Your willing to kill a claimed cop because of some little fight of me being sane/insane. Even so, if I'm insane, I can still contribute lots. I'm beleiving your scum as of now, and thereso, your the play today.

And here's the thing: if you're an insane cop, we need to figure that out. The only available datapoint that can contribute to that discussion is Raffles' mafiosity. Raffles coasted through yesterday because your claim put pressure on IH (and because Akbar and Kison didn't feel like listening to additional discussion on the subject). He's been scummy in a variety of ways since Day One and still hasn't been held accountable for it.

[Akbar]

If IH was a Miller role, wouldn't that show up on his role tag? I think N9V is lying. As much as I don't trust BM & Fuldu, I think their appraisal of the situation is accurate.

Yesterday we trusted his claim, and were punished for it. Half a dozen of us are already dead. We don't have the numbers to be throwing away making 100% sure that N9V is scum. If we demand that the real cop claims before lynching scum, then we've allowed him to not only kill once but twice.

The only chance that N9V is innocent is if he's an insane cop. I think it's unlikely the Mod would not only give us an Insane Cop, but also only allow him to identify 1 scum group. Everyone he investigated would come up guilty except that one scum group. That wouldn't be a benefit, it'd be a curse. Couple that with the "Strange Occurrence" that kept N9V from investigating would mean the scum have a Role Blocker as well! The probability of options weighs heavily on N9V being scum.

Also of note, neither scum group tried to kill N9V. The fact that N9V is not voting Raffles instead of BM is suspect as well, considering the only chance N9V's innocent is being Insane Cop. This of course would mean Raffles is scum.

Vote N9V

[XReyoX]

@n9v: what was the strange occurence and who did you choose to investigate last night.

[XReyoX]

What is a miller?

[Battle Mage]

thats total BS. clinches my vote. N9V is scum.
BM

I have only one good explanation for why IH turned out Scum for me. Mabey he is the counter GodFather type role? Where if investigated, he turns up scum. Cuz all politics are scummy in one manner or another. Also, I couldn't veiw anyone last night, because of 'strange occurences'. I still beleive I'm sane, and Raffles isn't the way to go today.

Also,

Vote BM

Your willing to kill a claimed cop because of some little fight of me being sane/insane. Even so, if I'm insane, I can still contribute lots. I'm beleiving your scum as of now, and thereso, your the play today.

[The Fonz]

If IH was a Miller role, wouldn't that show up on his role tag? I think N9V is lying. As much as I don't trust BM & Fuldu, I think their appraisal of the situation is accurate.

It didn't show up on Al's tag whether he was cult, mafia or mason. Why would it come up on IH's? We seem to have a limited-reveal game. Deal with it.

Massive FOS: anyone pushing an N9V lynch today