Open 563 - Jungle Republic (Night 5~)

[fuzzybutternut]

no lynching gives 3/5 chance (60%) for mafia to win

You're basing this "math" without taking in consideration exactly who dies tonight. What if they kill mafia? Then it's pretty much insta-win for town.

[Riddleton]

There's no "gamble" here; we effectively get two shots to sort out who is mafia. If we get one wrong (say you are town), the WWs have another chance to find the mafia so they do not win.

No lynching sucks. I'm not no lynching.

"Let's put towns fate into WW's hands."

Yeah, no. Sorry buddy. That's not a town mindset.

hypocrite

[Riddleton]

I mean, how deep do you want to dig your own grave?

[Riddleton]

if you think my logic is shit then don't dance around and vote for me already.

[Paschendale]

Just because I'm not in the mood for being cheeky:

Vote: Desperado

I'm the seer, you are not.

-fuzzy is not a werewolf.
-Unsight is not a werewolf.

Good to know. That was my first thought when you said he definitely wasn't, that it had been from Wicked's results. I just didn't remember what they were since that whole day happened without me.

------------

I definitely don't want to no lynch, just because I'd rather have a say in the outcome of the game and not leave it up to night kills. Besides, 50/50 is pretty good odds. I say use them while we can. Not that we're going to make a random, uninformed choice.

I'm torn about trying to target ww or mafia, though. No ww means no night kill, means town just has to lynch the scum to win. But it means we'll have to do it perfectly. Killing a mafia means the ww kill can still swing the game. I'm less inclined to let that happen.

Now, Riddleton, why the fuck won't you actually make a case for Fuzzy, and if you continue not to, why shouldn't we lynch you?

[Riddleton]

but it's a hell of a lot better than "Don't leave fate in WWs, but let's leave fate in WWs by PRAYING TO GOD they lynch mafia".

[Riddleton]

Pasch, I already wrote a case for Fuzzy. I'll give you the link

[Riddleton]

here

-----
I'll paste it here too

Fuzzybutternut

-Voted for 5 different people over the course of the two days we're at.
-Has said many other people are scummy as well, such as wicked & me (sns). Do you have any town reads or is everyone acting scummy to you?
-Said I (sns) was town quite a lot through the game but flipped D2 and said "I was probscum, but not convinced" (#562)
-Did not vote Shaded/Titus D1. Says "Sns, let's lynch Shaded tomorrow, yes?" (#384) but does not follow through. Why?
-Verdict: Scummy (mafia).

[Klick]

I am going to attempt to get some reads from today without reading back yet. Half of this is me being lazy and not having time, but the other half is an actual attempt to get reads in a different way.

On the lynch vs. no lynch debate: Lynching here is the better choice for Town, objectively. Both the Town and the Werewolf need to have a Mafioso eliminated within the next two rounds, or else the Mafia win. Lynching here instead of at 5p eliminates the possibility of a Mafia quickhammer should the Werewolf choose wrong. It also forces the Werewolf to aim for Mafia if we mislynch, while if we no lynch, the Wolf has the choice of taking out a Townie.

[Bins]

I'll build a case on my Not_Mafia WW read.

[Paschendale]

I'll paste it here too

Fuzzybutternut

-Voted for 5 different people over the course of the two days we're at.
-Has said many other people are scummy as well, such as wicked & me (sns). Do you have any town reads or is everyone acting scummy to you?
-Said I (sns) was town quite a lot through the game but flipped D2 and said "I was probscum, but not convinced" (#562)
-Did not vote Shaded/Titus D1. Says "Sns, let's lynch Shaded tomorrow, yes?" (#384) but does not follow through. Why?
-Verdict: Scummy (mafia).

That is not very compelling. 5 votes is hardly unusual. In fact, having views on lots of players is a good thing. Lots of votes is more indicative of a game that has had a decent number of wagons, and a player parking their vote is actually anti-town, as it makes it much harder to read someone. Likewise, having lots of reads and criticizing a lot of people is helpful to town. Nor is anyone obligated to keep the same reads. Reads should evolve. I've spent most of the game trying to lynch Bins and now am opposed to doing that. Am I scum?

The only thing left is the slightly fishy end of day 1. Otherwise, this is not much of a case.

[fuzzybutternut]

There's no "gamble" here; we effectively get two shots to sort out who is mafia. If we get one wrong (say you are town), the WWs have another chance to find the mafia so they do not win.

No lynching sucks. I'm not no lynching.

"Let's put towns fate into WW's hands."

Yeah, no. Sorry buddy. That's not a town mindset.

hypocrite

I'm sorry? You do know what that word means, right?

[Bins]

Alright, brace yourselves.

This is going to be PoE then backed up by things that will make sense and blow all of your minds.

Spoiler: Why Y'all are not Howling at the Moon

Fuzzybutternut

- Because our lovely Seer said so.

Riddleton

- Because Desperado claimed the fake Seer guilty on him. And while I understand that that might be the best gambit ever, I don't think it's a gambit that Desperado would have taken.

Klick

- Desperado ALSO fakeclaimed an innocent on Klick - that again, already makes me less likely to believe that Klick is the werewolf.

Here's where it starts to get interesting. Thinking about why Desperado claimed, it makes it almost impossible in my mind that Riddleton and Klick are the last WW. Desperado probably fakeclaimed thinking he was TOAST because of either a) the wagon yesteryday b) the fact they didn't kill the seer. He need to claim first and he needed to claim strong, hopefully managing to pull the kill of Riddleton before he died to make things better for WWs.

But for Desperado to y'know, sacrafice his entire wolfy life, he needed to have a partner that was in a good position.

Paschendale or Not_Mafia. And Not_Mafia was definitely in the better position of the two.

Paschendale

- I'm townreading Paschendale now. Not mafia and not werewolf. This is not based on any interaction (maybe the giant flashwagon on him), but many how he's reacting to things now. I don't think Paschendale is the last werewolf, I really don't. I think he'd be more observant of the seer claims and trying to push a WW lynch on someone else.

Something that Not_Mafia is currently attempting to do.

Not_Mafia

- This may sound silly, but I really do believe that Not_Mafia would have been the only person to want to kill Unsight. Heck, Unsight was being WW read by Wicked and being read as the partner to Bulge. Not_Mafia stated he had figured out who the seer was, and Unsight definitely was a seer kill. For him to come in the next day and say, "Yeah, I thought it was Unsight" is basic addition. You can also tell with Desperado's "I thought it was Bins" that there was conflict between the two WWs as well. Not_Mafia is the ONLY person who would have killed Unsight. And no, I don't think this is framing.

Also Desp and NM probably had it planned that if there was a CC that caught them, N_M needed to bus immediately.

VOTE: Not_Mafia

[Paschendale]

I honestly have no idea why Desperado fakeclaimed. There wasn't much focus on him during day 2. I also don't really feel comfortable trying to suss out his fake claims about his results.

[Bins]

He was the counter wagon day 2.

[Bins]

I think he wanted to claim because he knew the Seer claim was probably coming.

[Not_Mafia]

I'd rather not WIFOM Desp's fake results like that. And If anything I think Desperado's partner was a likely inspect target as if his partner was doing well he would have had no reason to basically suicide just to out the Seer, he'd have just waited for the guilty on him. Also, I don't think he actually intended to win that 1v1 as if he did he would have faked a guilty on who he thought was the seer as that the only way the CC'er wouldn't automatically be believed over him.

Not_Mafia stated he had figured out who the seer was, and Unsight definitely was a seer kill. For him to come in the next day and say, "Yeah, I thought it was Unsight" is basic addition.

This is just such a simplistic argument. You think I wouldn't at least pull

something

out of my arse as scum? I know the whole "if I were scum" routine is annoying but that's honestly how I read the situation and I think someone else came to that conclusion

[Bins]

That's why I presented other reasons why Klick and Riddleton aren't WW other than Desp's fakeclaim.

[Paschendale]

He was the counter wagon day 2.

It wasn't much of one. Maybe he thought it was more likely to reach a lynch than I did.

[Riddleton]

@mod: limited access until the 7th. Will still check in once per day

[fuzzybutternut]

*cough*

[Not_Mafia]

That's why I presented other reasons why Klick and Riddleton aren't WW other than Desp's fakeclaim.

Which were?

I have one town read and then one mafia read in Fuzzy but Riddleton's sudden aggression in pushing it makes me tentative but I still lean to Fuzzy with his interactioin with the Shaded and Maruchan wagons. So I feel like one of Fuzzy and Riddleton are mafia, and if one gets lynched today and flips town

the other should be the NK

if there is one.

VOTE: Fuzzy

[fuzzybutternut]

That's why I presented other reasons why Klick and Riddleton aren't WW other than Desp's fakeclaim.

Which were?

I have one town read and then one mafia read in Fuzzy but Riddleton's sudden aggression in pushing it makes me tentative but I still lean to Fuzzy with his interactioin with the Shaded and Maruchan wagons. So I feel like one of Fuzzy and Riddleton are mafia, and if one gets lynched today and flips town

the other should be the NK

if there is one.

VOTE: Fuzzy

What exactly gives you the credibility to direct NKs?

[fuzzybutternut]

Secondly, why would you rather keep a WW alive than have no NKs period?

[Bins]

(because he's a WW)