Micro 310: Shitty Joke Smalltown II (game over)

[N]

Vote Count 2.05

Mitillos

(0)

Micc

(0)

absta101

(1) PrivateI

farside22

(0)

PrivateI

(2)

Mitillos, jklash12

Brian Skies

(0)

TierShift

(1) absta101

jklash12

(0)

Not Voting

(4) farside22, Brian Skies, TierShift, Micc

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2014-04-10 21:55:07)

V/LA:

farside22 on weekends

[farside22]

Tier: Is it like you to not pay attention to people in the game? Example: Do you not pay attnetion to said player do to town read?

[TierShift]

PrI who are your scumspects?

More soon I hope.

@Farside: doesn't everyone pay less attention to townreads' alignments than to scumreads' ones? I know I do.
I would certainly not call it indicative of my alignment.

[PrivateI]

Primarily because he consistently casts suspicion on others, specifically Tier, without voting, Absta. It's straight-up mudslinging.

[PrivateI]

Tier is fairly town. He's working with people, scum hunting, nothing jumps out as scum.

[farside22]

PrI who are your scumspects?

More soon I hope.

@Farside: doesn't everyone pay less attention to townreads' alignments than to scumreads' ones? I know I do.
I would certainly not call it indicative of my alignment.

I thought I was the only one that did that.
You know with so many people who call others scummy for not reading X I just thought maybe I was the only person who ignored town reads.
No it's not alignment indictive. Just surprising.

Primarily because he consistently casts suspicion on others, specifically Tier, without voting, Absta. It's straight-up mudslinging.

Who are you talking about?

[PrivateI]

Who are you talking about?

In reference to Tier's question.

[farside22]

@Tier: What make you have your initial town read on Micc?

On a side note I don't know if it's worse to ignore a town read or not. I have done the opposite twice and got paranoid and lynched the players, both were town. But on the other hand I was wrong about a town read and they were scum.

[farside22]

Who are you talking about?

In reference to Tier's question.

The question Tier asked was who are your scum suspects.
Your response:

Primarily because he consistently casts suspicion on others, specifically Tier, without voting, Absta. It's straight-up mudslinging.

I have no idea who "he" is in this sentence.

[PrivateI]

Primarily because he consistently casts suspicion on others, specifically Tier, without voting,

Absta

. It's straight-up mudslinging.

Sorry. Awkward sentence structures are a thing I enjoy.

[farside22]

Private: Who besides Absta do you read as scum and why?

[Mitillos]

Dodging the prod, pre-emptively.

I'm re-evaluating my Tier and Micc reads. Expect updated comprehensive reads some time during the weekend.

Meanwhile, @Private: absta

is

voting Tier.

[farside22]

Alright after researching town and scum games from Private I'm leaning scum at this point.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go - town


http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go - town
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go scum game

As you can see a more clear line of thinking and scum hunting as town, scum less so. I figure if she thought she maybe lynched I would see more fighting and letting people know her scum reads at this point.

As far as partner I'm leaning a little on BrainK or Micc. More because neither have produced thus far reads on who is scum, while Micc continues to push on Absta over Private (I'm thinking scum wouldn't be that obvious) which makes me go back to Brain who puts thoughts but I don't see chasing that scum read down. Almost reads as a bit indifferent.

Thoughts?

[farside22]

Actually I may replace Tier with Micc. But that would be more gut reason then something I could define on paper.

[TierShift]

Primarily because he consistently casts suspicion on others, specifically Tier, without voting,

Absta

. It's straight-up mudslinging.

Sorry. Awkward sentence structures are a thing I enjoy.

Is that really all you have?

[TierShift]

As far as partner I'm leaning a little on BrainK or Micc. More because neither have produced thus far reads on who is scum

Do you think both scum are passive this game?

[farside22]

As far as partner I'm leaning a little on BrainK or Micc. More because neither have produced thus far reads on who is scum

Do you think both scum are passive this game?

I wouldn't say mic is not passive. But my experience is scum tend to make weak cases or look townish/blend in without doing much. Some player know how to do the aggressive/active but there far and few I know.

[TierShift]

Well micc can...

I should reread some more.

[farside22]

Well micc can...

I should reread some more.

Links? Town and scum games please.

[Mitillos]

Part 1 of my current reads:

absta

: He's been extremely active, interacting with everyone. He questions suspicious behaviour and scumhunts. His reads are fluid, but they don't follow the town's trend. I see nothing here that doesn't point to him being town. The only situation where I would vote him, would be if that was the optimal mislynch for town, due to his role.

Read: Town.

Brian

: I don't like lurkers. This guy is third for fewest posts in the game, after Yiley and PrivateI. On the other hand, the content of his posts is good. His responses to accusations and his questions on what he finds suspicious all seem pretty well-reasoned. He was also quick to point out the contradiction of people saying that PrivateI's lurking is not alignment-indicative, whilst Yiley's was. I'd still like him to post more often.

Read: Null-town.

farside

: Almost everything is alright here, but there are two things which give me pause.
The first was how she joined the Yiley wagon and then "switched" to PrivateI after Yiley got lynched. It could be a simple mistake, or it could be because she's scum, trying to seem like she wasn't really committed to the Yiley lynch (because scum would be committed to it, since he was the only investigative role). Not only that, but she got on the Yiley wagon due to the deadline; the PrivateI wagon was exactly as large as Yiley's at that time (VC right before her vote), so it was at least as valid and not on a cop. (The TS one was not as viable, since absta was already on it.)
The second worrying thing was in post 441, where she categorically said that if we mislynch today, we end up in LyLo tomorrow. Assuming a mislynch and a NK that aren't her, we'll be down to 6 people, i.e. 7 votes. If she's town and we no-lynch, even if she dies overnight, we're down to 5 votes, with both town and mafia controlling 3 votes each (including absta's).

Read: Mostly town

, but I'd really like a response to the two points above.

jklash

: Not sure what to make of him right now. I was thinking he was town, but looking back, some things bother me a little. For instance, choosing to not use his power (which is not limited to a specific number of uses). Also, posts 259 and 267 came with less than a day between them, but pretty much show a significant dissonance. The only significant thing that came between them was Yiley promising to stop lurking and posting some reads.
The only reason I'm leaving him at null is that all this may be due to the fact he's new to mafia.

Read: Null

The reads for PrivateI, Micc and Tier will come some time on Saturday or Sunday. I need to read Micc and Tier's ISOs a bit more, to make my mind up about them.

[farside22]

farside: Almost everything is alright here, but there are two things which give me pause.
The first was how she joined the Yiley wagon and then "switched" to PrivateI after Yiley got lynched. It could be a simple mistake, or it could be because she's scum, trying to seem like she wasn't really committed to the Yiley lynch (because scum would be committed to it, since he was the only investigative role). Not only that, but she got on the Yiley wagon due to the deadline; the PrivateI wagon was exactly as large as Yiley's at that time (VC right before her vote), so it was at least as valid and not on a cop. (The TS one was not as viable, since absta was already on it.)
The second worrying thing was in post 441, where she categorically said that if we mislynch today, we end up in LyLo tomorrow. Assuming a mislynch and a NK that aren't her, we'll be down to 6 people, i.e. 7 votes. If she's town and we no-lynch, even if she dies overnight, we're down to 5 votes, with both town and mafia controlling 3 votes each (including absta's).

Read: Mostly town, but I'd really like a response to the two points above.

Private was lurking which I see from both town and scum. Yiley had meta against him so I based my vote on meta.
Today is 8 player.
Lynch town leaves 7 town and 2 scum night 1
Day 3 6 town, 2 scum.
Yeah I've been having the wrong number of player in this game all game long. Don't know why.
As for the change in vote from yiley to private I forgot about the hammer counting at the time.

[Micc]

I do think absta is town. I'm not 100% certain of course, but my read on him is what it is. However, if you think he could be scum then:

1) Make an actual case on him, instead of pushing for a strategic lynch, and
2) We should look for his partner first, in any case. If absta is scum, he has no control over his own vote, so we have more breathing space. A day of looking for his partner is a good idea.

Ok, I will get to this. Going to respond to other posts, and then come back and break down absta and explain why I think that town read is bad.

I was thinking that maybe scum wanted to keep absta alive.

Maybe it's because Absta is pretty much a third member of the scum team if he is town. Maybe scum would want to keep that player around? It would make sense now wouldn't it?

Anyway, I am glad that you are starting to understand what I have been trying to say for a day and a half. It gives me hope that we might actually have a chance at winning this one.

Every post I read from Micc is more about PL then scum hunting. I'm wanting Tier to explain that town read too.

Well, its kinda degrading to my motivation to play when I am the only person who is interested in playing optimally. Last week was also pretty busy, so I should be able to put aside more time to think about this game in the future.

Let me first get to my Micc read.

Cool. You feel about the same way about me as I feel about you. The numbers you posted regarding today's lynch are misleading and outright wrong. I can't tell if you are lying scum or if you actually believe you are right. I actually lol'ed whey you called the case on Yiley a "shitty meta tell". Like actually laughed out loud, not just chuckled in my head.

Micc, who do you actually think is scum?

Jklash is strong town. Farside is not quite as strong town. Private feels like lynchbait, but I'm not sure on that one. I like Brian's posts for the most part, but he's even less engaged in the game than I have been so it is hard to tell. Absta still feels like scum to me, possibly because he needs to die either way and confirmation bias and such. Tiershift and Mitillos are vocally against lynching Absta today which raises eyebrows for me.

When it comes down to it, I can concede that I have spent more time explaining why we need to PL Absta than find scum so far. I honestly don't think we have a chance at winning this game if we don't lynch him. Its seriously draining my motivation to play that no one else sees that.

Links? Town and scum games please.

My wiki should be up to date.

[Micc]

Going to start by breaking down Mitillos's reasons for town reading Absta.

He's been extremely active

That's hardly alignment indicative, and I think you know that.

interacting with everyone

It's not hard to do this as scum. Not hard at all.

He questions suspicious behaviour and scumhunts.

I can't say any of his "scum hunting" pushes look all that great to me. Ive said it before, and ill say it again, his questioning of suspicious behavior feels fake and over accusatory to me. I just don't believe the scum hunting is genuinely town.

His reads are fluid, but they don't follow the town's trend.

Oh really? He suspects Private, Tiershift, and myself at the moment. That's not following the town's trend? I concede that his reads were fluid Day 1, but not Day 2, and I certainly wont concede that having fluid reads is a town tell.

The only situation where I would vote him, would be if that was the optimal mislynch for town, due to his role.

He IS the optimal mislynch for town. If we are going to mislynch, we are way better off mislynching him than anyone else. Lynching town-Absta has the same affect on the endgame situation as lynching scum.

The one thing that bothers me the most about Absta has been his reluctance to discuss the merits of him being policy lynched.

I'm okay with being PL'd on the second day if it helps. I'd rather we lynch Tier or Yiley today though.

This is about the only solid comment I could find on his opinion. He questioned the logic a little bit in Day 2, but left it alone again after I responded. Gives off the impression that Absta knows its optimal play, but knows he can't afford to let it happen because he is actually scum.

I guess if he wants to update his opinion I would love to hear it.

[Brian Skies]

BrainK

Can you not call me this? It's irritating.

Who are your current scum reads and why?

Right now, mostly tier. I think I said it before, but I don't really like his targets from Day 1. And joining Micc's wagon on the cop because he was "lurking" pings me in a bad way. Surely there were other people with the same issue (PI, me), and the complete lack of paranoia for potentially mislynching a cop is unsettling. Also, I think I remember asking Tier about how much of Yiley's meta he's looked at.

After tier, I'm thinking one of Jklash or PI. Both of them look like lynchbait though, so I'm not completely sure if they're just bad town or bad scum.

I've been waffling a bit on Micc. Micc's play so far has felt manipulative in the way he's been trying to use the set-up to get lynches he wants. Except he spearheaded that lynch on Yiley, and I don't think scum would be bold enough to make a strong move like that early on. He also seems pretty intent on lynching Absta because he thinks it would be the best move for town (free flip and getting rid of negative utility), and I can see a townie really trying to push for something like that.

Everyone else I'm reading as some sort of towns.

This guy is third for fewest posts in the game

I'm not the type of person to have a high post count in my games. Usually when it's high, it's because I've managed to outlive a good portion of the playerslist (or a good portion of the playerslist is doing jack all and I have to get my hands dirty for it to go anywhere).

He IS the optimal mislynch for town. If we are going to mislynch, we are way better off mislynching him than anyone else. Lynching town-Absta has the same affect on the endgame situation as lynching scum.

I'm conflicted. While I acknowledge what you're trying to say and how it seems to be town-motivated, I'm still not reading Absta as scum. If you think Absta is scum, who do you think his partner would be?

[Mitillos]

@farside: Your numbers are still incorrect. A mislynch leaves us at 7 players - 5 town and 2 scum - for N1; not 7 town, 2 scum. I'm not sure I'm satisfied with this. You're the doublevoter. If you're town, you are currently the biggest asset we have (with the cop gone), so you should be more clear on the numbers, to avoid any mishaps.

@Micc: You are wrong. I don't know how else to say this and I've said it several times. If absta is town, his lynch is currently not good for the town. It might end up not being bad either, or it might end up being horrible. All that we gain by lynching him is seeing his alignment, but this is true of anyone we lynch. Beyond that, we simply risk forgoing the ability to survive in a situation where we'd otherwise automatically lose. As Tier said, he turns LyLo to MyLo and MyLo to safety.

You say that lynching him has the same effect as lynching scum, but it also has the same effect as lynching town. His is not only a vote that scum can manipulate, it's also a vote that town can deny from scum. All it takes is cooperation. Which is exactly what mafia is all about, in my view.

Basically, town-absta will be the optimal lynch, once a scum flips. I think that in that situation, he might even be an optimal lynch, even if he is 100% town. Before that though, his lynch is a bad idea. Scum-absta on the other hand, would be a viable lynch. But on that front, you promised a case and haven't delivered, yet.

You say that scum can also interact with everyone and be active. This is true, but it is also true of every pro-town behaviour. Town can lynch scum; so can scum. Town can try to expose fallacious arguments to protect others from getting lynched; so can scum. But in the end, if you don't look for pro-town and anti-town behaviour, you can't figure out who is likely to be scum or town, so you can't make reads. In short, when a person is doing a bunch of pro-town things and pretty much no anti-town things, you make damn sure they aren't lynched, especially for bad reasons.

Activity is pro-town. It allows people to read you and see what you are about. And absta isn't even fluffing or spamming, he's contributing. Sure, scum could do this, but that doesn't make the behaviour less pro-town. Especially since scum will be more likely to want to stay out of things a bit, to avoid saying the wrong thing. The same goes for interacting with everyone. Scum can do it. Town is more likely to do it, because it is pro-town behaviour (looking everywhere for scum, without assuming that someone is town for no reason).

How can you tell the difference between fake interactions by scum and legitimate town-sided scumhunting? The short answer is no one can. The longer answer involves explanations about how it's generally very difficult to tell, particularly with a strong player who has a lot of experience. The point is that there are certain actions. You made an ad-hoc decision to view these as fake, not because of their content, but because of their style (e.g. "over-accusatory" tone). Belief should have nothing to do with it. If you have no actual evidence that suggests his interactions are fake, the null hypothesis must be that he's town, who is trying to scumhunt.

What do you mean "at the moment"? He named you three (plus Brian) as his list for where scum is likely to be, on D1. When pretty much no one else voiced much suspicion about Tier or Private. And I think only jklash said he was leaning scum on you, at the time. absta made his reads before the trend started. If the town started following suit afterwards, that doesn't change anything.

Fluid reads suggest that he is ready to reconsider his position, when presented with new evidence. Again, scum could do it too, but town (or at least good town) is far more likely to do it. Scum are more likely to avoid it, in order to not be seen as trying to find the best wagon to push.