Micro 310: Shitty Joke Smalltown II (game over)

[farside22]

jklash who else do you have a scum read on besides private and why?

[N]

Vote Count 2.04

Mitillos

(0)

Micc

(0)

absta101

(1) PrivateI

farside22

(0)

PrivateI

(2)

Mitillos, jklash12

Brian Skies

(0)

TierShift

(1) absta101

jklash12

(0)

Not Voting

(4) farside22, Brian Skies, TierShift, Micc

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2014-04-10 21:55:07)

V/LA:

farside22 on weekends

[Brian Skies]

@Brian: I have explained this already...

Suppose we lynch absta today for strategic reasons. Then, say we mislynch. Now, say farside is scum (worst case scenario). Then there are 6 votes left, scum controls 3, town controls 3. Scum cannot be lynched, so they win. The game is automatically over.

Now suppose we don't waste a day lynching absta. Say we mislynch today and farside is scum (same scenario as above). Then there are 7 votes left, scum controls 4, but town also controls 4. If the 3 remaining town players are quicker than the 2 scum players, they could still get a scum lynch and survive.

In both these cases, we only have one mislynch. An absta lynch doesn't save us a day, because it also takes a day away already. The absta flip itself is irrelevant, if we are only doing it for the purpose of vote control.
Furthermore, if farside is town, things are even better for us, so we really don't need to lynch absta in that situation.

There are 9 votes in play today. If we follow the scenario in bold and lynch Absta today, it's likely there will be 7 votes in play tomorrow (with a maximum of 3 being controlled by scum). If we mislynch tomorrow, then there's a possibility we just lose.

The same thing occurs in the second scenario, except if PrivateI is town and Farside is scum, there's a possibility she can attempt a quick victory tomorrow.

[PrivateI]

Ok, so out of curiosity, why are we not lynching Absta?

VOTE: Absta

Mod, my vote is on Absta.

[N]

fixed

[Mitillos]

@Brian: Except that that scenario says that we lynch absta strategically and then we mislynch, i.e. someone else. The point is how many mislynches we get, before we lose, in either situation. If we lynch absta for purposes of strategy, he does not count as one of the allowed mislynches, because we're basically committing ourselves to lynching him for his role, not his alignment. We get one mislynch (the D3 one) and then we lose. On the other hand, if we don't lynch absta, we get one mislynch and we still have a small chance to not lose.

I'm not sure what I'm not explaining clearly, here. Let me break it down by steps:

Scenario A1: Whereby we lynch absta for strategic purposes and he is town.
On N2, someone dies.
On D3, we pick someone to lynch.
On N3, someone dies.
In the worst case scenario, farside is scum and the D3 lynch is a mislynch.
Then, we lose. Automatically. After one mislynch. Because absta's lynch will not count as a mislynch, since it is being done for reasons of strategy.

Scenario A2: Whereby we do not lynch absta and he is town.
On D2 we lynch someone.
On N2, someone dies.
Same worst case scenario. farside scum, D2 mislynch.
We still got one mislynch, just like in A1.
But now, either scum wins, or town manages to get out of losing, depending on who manages to get on and do their thing, first. Sure, mafia is far more likely to do it, but it's better than an automatic loss.

So, lynching absta means we forgo the possibility of surviving, if we mislynch afterwards. Not lynching absta allows us to at least have the small chance of not losing outright.

Now suppose absta is scum. Then we should aim to find his partner first, then (after a successful scumlynch) we can lynch absta without any worries. If we can't find his partner, sure, we should lynch him first. But the thing about this, is that I haven't seen a decent case on absta, yet. Micc said something about absta being pushy, but that's a massive assumption, that everyone behaves similarly.

Also, suppose farside is town. Then everything gets pushed back a day, unless she dies overnight. There is still no good reason to lynch absta.

[TierShift]

You know that I already ran all these numbers, right? In a nice and clean format as well.

Will get to the questions later.

[Mitillos]

@Tier: The numbers aren't exactly the important thing here. What's important is something you briefly mentioned in that post, but didn't elaborate on: that town-absta being alive turns a loss to LyLo and a LyLo to MyLo. Which, in turn means that absta must not be lynched today. Which is what I've been trying to get across. But Micc and Brian said they didn't get what I meant, so I've had to make the explanations more and more verbose and therefore not nice or clean.

[farside22]

Why are we talking numbers again with hypo theory?
I asked people before and I will ask again.
Who thinks I'm scum or that absta is scum.
If yes why?

[Micc]

That said I'm starting to read private as bad town.
*pause for effect*
I haven't played mafia in a year (give or take) but I have been reminded that players tend to be stupid are town (as I said offensive but trying to put it nicely doesn't get the point through).
I personally do not like the hammer or even Private's wording. I did a short meta dive into private as well (and when I have time I will post the links) his scum game is not idiotic in the least. I just remember that off the top of my head but links will come tomorrow with this.

Well, that's about where I am at right now too. His play has been bad, but I don't think it means he is scum. Same with jklash. I don't respect his play that much, but he has given off genuine enough town tells that I am pretty sure he is town.

Micc: I linked 2 games from absta that was from less then a year ago. Why does it matter how old the meta is anyways?
Also I asked you because you seem to be a type from what I have read that meta read players.

I like to meta read for personality and posting style. It helps me get an understanding of where players are coming from. I don't put a whole lot of stock in old games because things change.

Really? I don't get the feeling that he's getting to pick his preferred targets, but his targets do seem to match those I think scum would think as easy mislynches.

Its more of the fact that he didn't waver from Yiley one bit. He was all over the place as town in our last game.

[Micc]

I'm not doing this numbers thing again.

Mitillos wants to gamble and fall back on a hammer race in the case that we are wrong.
I'd rather play it safe and maximize the amount of lynches we get before potentially losing.

I guess its a matter of preference. The horse is already dead. I'm done beating it.

Mitillos, do you have any scum reads outside of PrivateI?

[Mitillos]

This is the third time I get asked that today...

And it's not a matter of preference at all. What you are recommending maximises nothing and does not constitute playing it safe. You are suggesting we gain a lynch, by wasting a lynch. That is counter-productive.

[Micc]

I cant figure out why you think Absta is a waste of a lynch. Are you that confident he is town?

[Mitillos]

I do think absta is town. I'm not 100% certain of course, but my read on him is what it is. However, if you think he could be scum then:

1) Make an actual case on him, instead of pushing for a strategic lynch, and
2) We should look for his partner first, in any case. If absta is scum, he has no control over his own vote, so we have more breathing space. A day of looking for his partner is a good idea.

If there's a good case on why absta is scum ("he is more pushy than I expect town to be" is not a good case at all) and there is little consensus as to who else might be scum, then an absta lynch could make sense.

[farside22]

I was thinking that maybe scum wanted to keep absta alive. Mic point started to get through my thought process after reading jklash response and mit response I feel this is less likely.
There was something I noticed that bothered me.
I'll be back later today to see if I'm losing it.

[Brian Skies]

Its more of the fact that he didn't waver from Yiley one bit. He was all over the place as town in our last game.

I agree that this is concerning. He seemed perfectly fine policy lynching Yiley, whereas most of the other players were concerned over the possibility Yiley could be town.

[farside22]

BrainK: Who are your current scum reads and why?

[absta101]

@Private

Ok, so out of curiosity, why are we not lynching Absta?

VOTE: Absta

Mod, my vote is on Absta.

You said other people find me scummy, but nothing about yourself. Do you find me scummy, and why?
--

@Tier

- Can you answer my questions?

Why is Micc a town read?

[farside22]

Every post I read from Micc is more about PL then scum hunting. I'm wanting Tier to explain that town read too.

[N]

Prodding jklash

[jklash12]

Ok I am here. Sorry can't post usually on Wednesday as I am busy on wednesdays. Going to catch up and posts

[TierShift]

Dodge

[N]

Prodding PrivateI

This is his 4th prod, so I'm going skip the 24 hour grace period and start searching for a replacement.

[farside22]

The prod dodges are pretty frustation. Will people who are town please start behaving like town.

[TierShift]

Ok, I'm here.

Let me first get to my Micc read.
For some reason, I had him as town, mostly because of some self-meta he imposed ("I do that when I'm scum"), but I don't really see him that way anymore.

I don't like that he has shown zero paranoia and has been completely certain of anything he's said. I get a slight feeling of him buddying up to me. I don't like that he has shown no scymhunting day 2 but instead kept pushing for an absta PL (which I have proven is stupid), which is easy for scum.

This jumps out at me.

As much as I hate PrivateI for that careless vote on Yiley, and the fact that he too is a useless lurking waste of a player slot, I would still rather lynch Yiley. Yiley's meta shows such a contrast in involved-ness between scum and town that we just can't ignore it.

I intend to hammer Yiley at some point before the end of Day1.

Which is kinda weird since your scumspect (based on a shitty meta-tell) just got hammered recklessly by a lurker. The scumread can't be so big that you just let said lurker walk away with that, even if you know he's town.
Explanation can be the proposed cop scan day 2 on micc, which he wanted to avoid.

I think it's still the best play. Part of me wants to lynch PrivateI for being awful, but the smart thing to do is still to lynch Absta.

Here I see a definite refusal to scumhunt, not trying to figure out PrI's alignment, just calling him scummy and be done with it.

On the other hand, I liked the yiley push at the beginning. The going at absta felt somewhat genuine at first too. Later though meh :/

Micc, who do you actually think is scum?