NY 169: The EPIC XD Mafia Game of Greatness (Game Over)

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Generic, your point about Cephrir resonates with me because one of the things I found off about him was his interaction with me. When no one suspected me D1, he defended me calling Sakura's FOS on me "moonlogic" in 959 and expresses approval of my objection to Pieguyn's GoodMorning read in 961, agreeing with me on Rofl in 1071 and in general treading very carefully. He also appreciating my meta-dive of DOMO in 1320. However, after a few people suspect me, his tone then changes with him starting to throw slight suspicion in 2744, 3695, and 4021. However, after I start pushing on him, he backs off and again starts reading me as town which I feel is similar to what you describe. I didn't feel that his reads had any genuine scumhunting behind them but rather sucking up to universally townread players while setting up suspicion on players that could be suspicious which is what I gathered from his interaction with me.

did you notice he did this with me too

when I posted my catchup post on replace in he immediately threw me into his townpile and then when it looked like I could be lynched he conveniently reversed said read with a sketchy reason

I think I am beginning to agree with this, his questioning of me felt kind of robotic

Yeah, you are right. The suspicion came after Casso, MC, and Geists had all expressed suspicion of you.

Did you go though my list of reads? Are there any reads you disagree with and if so, who?

[Casso the King of Seals]

Yeah. I felt that it was unreasonable and manipulative and definitely not something outside the range of capabilities for a player like Cephrir.

To address the unreasonable bit, Cephrir just got done playing a game with me where I was incredibly, incredibly town and poured heart and soul into game and yet was still suspected randomly for shitty reasons. Here, the reasons why paranoia is bubbling up around me are even worse than they were there which has the tendency to sort of intensify feelings to the extreme, meaning he sees a wagon forming on me when I'm playing beyond what I've ever played as scum. I can see him producing strong feelings about that play.

Next, about Cephrir's capabilities. He is an extremely strong scum player. That does not mean he is invincible/capable of faking anything ever as scum, nor would he. As a scum player, he is conservative; he doesn't take any extremely big risks in his day play because his day play is so consistently solid. In League of Legends, he claimed his own role and real actions because he didn't want to be caught out. In ASOIAF, his largest misstep was not hard counterclaiming Benmage even though he totally could have done so pretty fucking safely and for infinite towncred. In heat of the moment places here, Cephrir has played better and riskier. He voted us when he thought we called him scum and it was much more fluid than it was in ASOIAF. He made the pseudo sacrifice play, which again, seems too loud and risky to be coming from the normal Cephrir scumgame that I'm used to.

I mean, what if I just turned on him immediately? I don't expect Cephrir to be able to read me well. He wasn't in a position where he could have been lynched in that scenario, but making such a dramatic call that close to deadline is essentially throwing up red flags everywhere and holding up a sign that says "LYNCH ME", and this was at a time when either Desperado or I were shoe-ins for the lynch.

I've thought on this a bit, and I still don't believe it's a scum move. Sell me otherwise.

[Norlkaz]

Broseidon needs his face Eaten.
At the time of his D1 extension request, Casso was threatened. Worth noting.

Anyone not voting SSK for reasons other than "I think he's town" should not do that. We have a bad environment now and that makes it worse.

[KoreanBBQ]

This be scumpool
{Titus, MafisSSK, SAD, Norl, BRO, Bertslot}

I'm p sure on first three. Little less sure on the latter three. If there's a town, its in latter three.

[Casso the King of Seals]

I don't see Titus's push on the soft-claiming vig as alignment indicative at all. Explain why it is town.

It's aggressive as hell and stubborn as hell on a lynch that is obviously not going to go through with reasoning that is not going to push the lynch through, but it all feels very Titus-esque. The biggest problem I've noticed in Titus's scumgame is that she's a bit more susceptible to influences as scum, which means she's a little more agreeable and it leaves her less likely to get lynched. Here she's on the first train out of paranoia station, she has plenty of facts disproving her generally solidly (including a flipped vig) but she hasn't been discouraged in the slightest. That is Titus town.

[pieguyn]

Did you go though my list of reads? Are there any reads you disagree with and if so, who?

where
link plz

[Norlkaz]

I don't see Titus's push on the soft-claiming vig as alignment indicative at all. Explain why it is town.

It's aggressive as hell and stubborn as hell on a lynch that is obviously not going to go through with reasoning that is not going to push the lynch through, but it all feels very Titus-esque. The biggest problem I've noticed in Titus's scumgame is that she's a bit more susceptible to influences as scum, which means she's a little more agreeable and it leaves her less likely to get lynched. Here she's on the first train out of paranoia station, she has plenty of facts disproving her generally solidly (including a flipped vig) but she hasn't been discouraged in the slightest. That is Titus town.

Uhhh
IIRC Titus got pretty vehement about some pushes that made NO SENSE OF ANY KIND in ASOIAF. I was impressed by how well he pulled off the earnest-derp.
Specifically the "HOW DOES THIS GUY KNOW HOW MANY SCUM THERE ARE" thing which I'm pretty sure continued even after the townflipped census taker was pointed out for him.

[Casso the King of Seals]

IIRC Titus got pretty vehement about some pushes that made NO SENSE OF ANY KIND in ASOIAF. I was impressed by how well he pulled off the earnest-derp.
Specifically the "HOW DOES THIS GUY KNOW HOW MANY SCUM THERE ARE" thing which I'm pretty sure continued even after the townflipped census taker was pointed out for him.

That was Titus vying for towncred by trying to pretend she didn't know how many scum there were.
There is no towncred to be gained with this route.

[Casso the King of Seals]

The best honest derp Titus managed to fake in ASOIAF was third party suspicion on me but I'm guessing that was Titus legitimately getting suspicious of me and yet knowing that I wasn't scum.

[KoreanBBQ]

There is in this one!

Not all scum qts have strong summaries so yeah not a town tell. Scum without daytalk, and poor night summary is very possible even with a replace in fumbling. Don't use that as a towntell. If you do, when I am scum, I will burn you. I love burning outside tells like that.

[Casso the King of Seals]

1) You soft-claim vig.
2) You claim VT.
3) When called out, you deny the soft-claim of Vig.
4) You self-voted allegedly trying to draw the wagon to yourself. This suggests scum bc it suggests someone piss poorly white knighting SC.

like just look at this

[Casso the King of Seals]

There is in this one!

Not all scum qts have strong summaries so yeah not a town tell. Scum without daytalk, and poor night summary is very possible even with a replace in fumbling. Don't use that as a towntell. If you do, when I am scum, I will burn you. I love burning outside tells like that.

That is Titus rejecting a townread on someone else when she could easily be townread for similar reasons. I don't think that's a bad thing.

[KoreanBBQ]

U kidding me
That's the same shit I pulled in Newb 1429

[Casso the King of Seals]

Nacho also needs to explain the difference between this muffin and FEA muffin.

Game state. I can see Muffin going inactive as hell in FEA because he was pretty much confirmed town to most people with brains, he has three times the posts in FEA he had here, started out 280+ pages behind and thus was never going to catch up. Those are the big ones.

[Norlkaz]

There is always towncred to be gained by showing RAWR.

F16 gets the working too hard to be scum emblem.

[KoreanBBQ]

Also geists reached 666 posts.
We should get away from them

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Nacho, I haven't read ASOIAF yet, but hopefully I'll finish it before this day ends and offer my comments there. For now, taking your word for it, I'll agree with there being town motivation in defending you if he thinks you are being suspected for silly reasons. But the way he went about it didn't seem town. I think town would be more likely to defend a player from being lynched as opposed to offer themselves as a lynch in their place. For instance, if I am townreading Player X, I'd try to persuade other people into understanding why Player X is town. I'd also want to be around to defend Player X in the future. By offering myself to be lynched, I set the stage for a mislynch on me and a potential mislynch on Player X somewhere down the line. I'd absolutely want to be alive later on so I can defend Player X from further silly attacks or at the very least be someone who would not vote Player X. So, we can agree that Cephrir's move was illogical from a town standpoint. He's already seen GIF tell people to lynch him and be townread for that. He's learned that asking to be lynched is at worst null. I don't believe Cephrir is averse to taking risks. In the Red Wine game which I was spectating, he FOSed ffery and Albert B. Rampage harshly criticizing them. He bussed his buddy Espeonage writing up a case on him. He certainly takes risks so I am not writing off risk-taking as a towntell.

Norlkaz, I am still waiting for you to provide reasoning for your reads. You acknowledged that you need to town it up more and I feel that would be a good starting point. I'd like to see where you are at with respect to all of your reads and why.

Pieguyn, my current reads:
TOWN: Geists/MC/GM, Generic, Pieguyn, KoreanBBQ, Prophylaxis, Casso, Sakura, zMuffin, BRO-slot, Norlkaz, Arthur, Titus, SSK: SCUM

The major changes are that I now feel KBBQ are legitimately town as opposed to sheeping ffery's read. Mostly gut-based and how they are interacting with players and developing reads. Their overall presence also feels town. Their reads-list in 6178 was the final touch that I felt town on because I agree with most of it.

[pieguyn]

agree on ceph, SAD, Norl

I think I've noticed some possible associatives between SAD and zmuffin. I gambited a townread on zmuffin bc I've lost 3 games to him now and he knows I'm paranoid as fuck about him so I was hoping if I wrote him off as town he'd be a bit less careful and I saw a few interesting things although idk how much of it is alignment indicative. so if Casso is town then zmuffin is probably scum with SAD. I can elaborate if you want and it might be better saved till after SAD flips, but the summary is that he's cherrypicking in favor of SAD and he also ignored me a bit when I was questioning him about SAD, which incidentally also fits with how SAD kept ignoring me. this is kind of a tinfoil hat theory but I get the feeling he was coaching SAD in their QT as to how to handle my pressure on him. I also don't get why he moved me up a tier on his town list and it makes me think he was manipulating me into taking his side in the casso debate. also, he was trolling me at the start of the game and there were some manipulative responses to casso e.g. "you have a very skewed view of my towngame", "IF anyone were going to notice this isn't my scum game here, i expected it to be nacho, and the fact he still thinks i'm scum atm is at least a cause for concern even apart from the weak reasoning for it" that were similar to what he kept doing in marketplace (the best one of all was to me > < so I'm on high alert for shit like that from him), and he's kind of coasting and not doing much besides debating with Nacho. I also disagree that he wouldn't necessarily play this way as scum.

the way BRO was feeling lost early game felt town, but he hasn't done anything really town since and he could probably fake it. I think Sakura is more town then he is, but on the other hand I really don't see nacho-scum running Sakura-town up as a deadline lynch. it seems like a dirty trick and I don't think Nacho would deliberately do smth that would quite obviously piss Sakura off. the argument between Casso and zmuffin might be cross bussing, but after marketplace I get the feeling they'd try to survive together instead and they were going at it p hard so I'm inclined to say at most 1 scum in there. so for me it's SSK, Norl, Ceph, then either {Casso, Sakura} or {SAD, zmuffin}

Proph's is p much null for me, although I have no idea how to read Bert. his replace in seemed town but it's not fakeable

besides that I have BBQ and Generic in my townpile so our reads are p much the same 0.0

[Casso the King of Seals]

For instance, if I am townreading Player X, I'd try to persuade other people into understanding why Player X is town. I'd also want to be around to defend Player X in the future. By offering myself to be lynched, I set the stage for a mislynch on me and a potential mislynch on Player X somewhere down the line. I'd absolutely want to be alive later on so I can defend Player X from further silly attacks or at the very least be someone who would not vote Player X. So, we can agree that Cephrir's move was illogical from a town standpoint.

Sure, it's illogical from a basic town standpoint.
But for someone who doesn't consider themselves a strong town player, who believes a lot in the momentum of a game, who believes he's going to be a mislynch somewhere down the road, it starts to make a little more sense.

He's already seen GIF tell people to lynch him and be townread for that. He's learned that asking to be lynched is at worst null.

I don't think this is a fair point. One player getting townread for what was a very context specific situation doesn't mean that all people who drop that tell will have it taken the same way, and hence risk. Cephrir-scum pulls a strong move like that, I get paranoid of him and flashwagon him, I'm no longer a very viable mislynch and he's dead.

I don't believe Cephrir is averse to taking risks. In the Red Wine game which I was spectating, he FOSed ffery and Albert B. Rampage harshly criticizing them. He bussed his buddy Espeonage writing up a case on him. He certainly takes risks so I am not writing off risk-taking as a towntell.

These aren't risks like the risks I'm talking about. Bussing a partner is very calculated risk; you put yourself in a worse position numberwise and then shift to a better position day play wise. When you attack a strong town player, there's a risk that they will turn on you because you should be townreading them (a risk that was mitigated by Cabd scumreading ffery and Cephrir being famously paranoid of ffery in the past), but you're also able to sew in some paranoia and also get townread for attacking strong players. This type of risk gave him little to no reward (makes us look like partners in case of a Cephrir scumflip in the case of an extremely dumb town, makes me defend him more strongly but I might get mislynched anyways + he's not close to sure on that), especially when you consider that a scumCephrir doesn't need me to survive and thus doesn't need to pull out such risky day play moves when he's already proven he can sufficiently dodge me for a fairly long time without that sort of bullshit.

[Casso the King of Seals]

And it's not like he did it as a last ditch effort to flip my read on him (which might make sense as a last resort): he did it when I was already townreading him, which means he ran the risk of making me paranoid and losing the support for his greatest supporter, if only for a moment. It's also too strong to take back very easily, so if I were to scumread him for that, he's stuck in an extremely extremely awkward position.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

What of his mutating read on me and Pieguyn based on whether other people are suspecting him and his interaction with Generic which Generic pointed out earlier?

[Norlkaz]

Ugh. Bro is not a slam dunk.
He's kinda sardonic / engaged.
The things he pays attention to / talks about have a very low 'trying to make town win' level though, so maybe we can still give him to Sarlacc.

P. edit:
Fortunately for you, you are playing with Norlkaz.
One of Norlkaz's primary purposes is to explain things more clearly.
I still need to do a lot of work in order to have things to explain though.

[pieguyn]

F-16, Casso thoughts on my zmuffin read

plz don't tell me I revealed it for nothing T_T

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am still processing your post and checking back. Links would be helpful.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am a little unclear on which townread you were talking about. I see that you said zMuffin was town based on gut in post 4845 and followed it up by asking him where he currently was at with SAD in post 4846. I noticed he responded in post 4874 saying that he wasn't confident in his townread but he doesn't want Arthur lynched.

You pushed harder on SAD in post 5032 saying that it was based on the tinfoil theory, which I am assuming is this theory. How did you get back to a townread on zMuffin in post 5535? Or was this part of the gambit?