NY 169: The EPIC XD Mafia Game of Greatness (Game Over)

[Bert]

I literally quickhammered the last scum in 1 v 4 in my newbie 1453 that ended today (no PRs remaining except a doc which could never be confirmed), because I replaced in and started appearing way too scummy without trying to be, so before the people could remove their votes and vote me, I voted the scum and prayed he flipped scum.

[DOMO]

I don't really think Domo is scum but his pushing this Casso, SSK, Bert, Geist, SAD scum team is rather craptastic.

I know, I'm quite proud of myself. I couldn't imagine a more unlikely soulread if I tried.

[DOMO]

So ok if we take geists out of the equation, why are the other four craptastic?

[KoreanBBQ]

So ok if we take geists out of the equation, why are the other four craptastic?

For me its just a lil' too convenient.

SSK gets wagoned and then SAD gets wagoned. And oh 'cause SAD is a CW SSK is conf scum but wait Casso is also a CW that means SAD is scum too!!!

I really think Bert is scum, do you think SAD is distancing from him that early?

Still haven't seen a Casso case.

Mostly 'cause I think there are some really good scum candidates out there in Norl, Cephir and maybe Muffin. With outside chances of Bro and Pie.

[DOMO]

You haven't seen a casso case? Then tell me why if he's town the brakes got slammed on his wagon in favour of a claimed doc. That's why I scumreading him so hard right now, because when push came to shove there didn't seem to be any scum interest in pushing his wagon into claim territory. That suggests scum do not want him dead. We're talking nachothor here, they would be high mislynch priority if the chance presented itself.

If you want me to be clearer with my reads, then I'm scumreading casso ssk and bert pretty hard, geists I don't trust even with a gunsmith clear, SAD and ceph are both people I feel could be scum, same with pie, norl I suspect is town but I'm not sure, muffin seems town and bro is town as fuck but he's excellent scum so I guess that makes him null.

And you can still be scum BBQ. The only thing in your favour is your self vote d1.

[DOMO]

By the way if casso or ssk happen to flip town then my ideas go out of the window and I stop scumreading geists right there.

[KoreanBBQ]

......................................

I'll never understand why new players are so defensive and get pissed and pushback.

[Cephrir]

You haven't seen a casso case? Then tell me why if he's town the brakes got slammed on his wagon in favour of a claimed doc. That's why I scumreading him so hard right now, because when push came to shove there didn't seem to be any scum interest in pushing his wagon into claim territory. That suggests scum do not want him dead. We're talking nachothor here, they would be high mislynch priority if the chance presented itself.

If you want me to be clearer with my reads, then I'm scumreading casso ssk and bert pretty hard, geists I don't trust even with a gunsmith clear, SAD and ceph are both people I feel could be scum, same with pie, norl I suspect is town but I'm not sure, muffin seems town and bro is town as fuck but he's excellent scum so I guess that makes him null.

And you can still be scum BBQ. The only thing in your favour is your self vote d1.

Maybe the shift was somehow towndriven? Perhaps the scum were the ones driving casso all along? (okay probably not)

I say that without thinking about who was doing any of this, but it is possible...

[KoreanBBQ]

Then tell me why if he's town the brakes got slammed on his wagon in favour of a claimed doc.

Lets pretend that SSK is town...he's lynchable. Don't you think scum would be p happy to lynch a doc instead of wasting a nk on them?

[DOMO]

Well that was the point I was making earlier. For casso to considered town, we have to assume SSK is town. But if SSK is town, where the fuck is he? He's an outed doc, he should be towning it up as hard as he can before getting killed, exactly like I'm doing. SSK is very likely to be scum, and the fact that SSK seems easier to lynch than casso suggests to me that casso is also scum.

Does anyone understand where I'm coming from yet? It seems so simple to me.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I get the suspicion on Casso. I still think SSK is the better lynch for today. He is a sure bet. Casso may potentially be town. There will always be tomorrow. As it is, I want to lynch someone who is highly likely to be scum and make associative tells based off of the flip as opposed to theorize that SSK is being too obvious and that he is protecting a buddy and potentially mistakenly lynch a townie. Take the sure thing first. Come back to the rest later.

[DOMO]

But maybe casso is more important to them than SSK is? That's why I want casso today.

[KoreanBBQ]

Still think its a meh point. Just 'cause the brakes got slammed on a Casso wagon doesn't make him scum. Wagons move all the time and its not necessarily alignment indicative.

You just gonna have to give me more than Casso's wagon was stalled to convince me.

[DOMO]

I would imagine that if casso is town, then bert, bro and generic are the ones I'd be looking at based on them sheeping me, but there was also goodmorning and norl on early with me.

Whatever flip we get with casso, it opens it up for us. I expect a scum flip, but a town flip would not be a disaster because his wagon is so interesting.

SSK is gonna flip scum today, tomorrow or whenever he's lynched, and we gain nothing but a scum flip.

We should take casso out while I'm still around to rally up votes.

[KoreanBBQ]

I also want to lynch Bert over SSK. Its possible that Norl could defend him buddy but I think scum are a tad bit more likely to defend town.

[DOMO]

Bert is preferable to SSK from my pov, sure.

[Casso the King of Seals]

For casso to considered town, we have to assume SSK is town.

No. This is a fundamentally wrong assumption that you've created out of nowhere because you think scum will pile on the moment that some sort of town force forms around me; this isn't always the case. Your current case includes me coaching SSK to act intentionally scummy (instead of just bussing him outright which is what normal people do) in order to get heat off me and me somehow being scum because my wagon isn't larger (and then once my wagon gets larger, will I no longer be scum? or...). I mentioned that sometimes my wagon looks dumb because scum hate jumping on my wagon since my wagon never actually goes through in the end, but here is a concrete example:

[6] Nachomamma8 (zMuffinMan, Ghostlin, TiphaineDeath, Andrius, Mac, waynegg)
[2] Aj The Epic (Nachomamma8, Faster Than Light)

I was town, it took 8 to lynch.
Guess how many scum were on my wagon?

[Casso the King of Seals]

a town flip would not be a disaster because his wagon is so interesting.

What would a Nacho town flip tell you?

[KoreanBBQ]

Bert is preferable to SSK from my pov, sure.

Where's that vote, Bro?

[DOMO]

a town flip would not be a disaster because his wagon is so interesting.

What would a Nacho town flip tell you?

That SSK is probably town too, and thus doc. Also, that BRO, generic and bert all look dodgy for sheeping me as I tried to muster up votes for you.

[DOMO]

Bert is preferable to SSK from my pov, sure.

Where's that vote, Bro?

On my preferred lynch.

[DOMO]

I should point out that me towning generic and bro doesn't help you casso. The fact they look dodgiest if you flip town makes me think it's all the more unlikely that you will.

[Casso the King of Seals]

SSK's target claim is probably the toniest thing he's done all game.

It might be if he didn't then object to geists leading.

He said geists would be a bad town leader because Natirasha is impulsive or some shit; this doesn't contradict the "geists is an asset" statement.

I am incredibly hungover and not able to rework that read right now, but Cephrir snowed the living hell out of me in uPick, and it turns out the major reason I was reading Cephrir as town here (namely, his reaction to me here) was completely wrong and completely faked.

So, what is your read on him now? Do you have any meta-based pointers?

I lean town on him now.

His old meta markers used to have to do with his aggression, with his odd perception of himself (he's a bit too hard on himself as town), and with the occasional observation that he makes that is something that's a bit off-the-wall but not complete bullshit. He has proven himself capable of faking all of those things pretty easily (although I note that his aggression always comes back while he's in stride as scum so that meta tell is still applicable when looking at long ISOs), but I'm working through his Ice and Fire ISO and noting a couple flaws before I do my big write up on it. For now, I'm much more interested in what you end up figuring out on your own.

[Casso the King of Seals]

a town flip would not be a disaster because his wagon is so interesting.

What would a Nacho town flip tell you?

That SSK is probably town too, and thus doc. Also, that BRO, generic and bert all look dodgy for sheeping me as I tried to muster up votes for you.

I still don't understand your "SSK is also probably town" reasoning.
That's all the information you have from my wagon? How many scum in BRO, Generic, and Bert?

[Casso the King of Seals]

The "I think Geists is a great asset to the town but not a good choice for town leader / what masons?" line of thought sounds genuine.
It particularly sounds :Unguided: so I'll be impressed if it turns out to be a scum-QT-product.

This is the only bit of your case that I agree with; everything else is pretty much completely fakeable.