I could be wrong, but I vaguely remember TSO inheriting AA9's slot.
At the very least, TSO isn't fire-scum. Look at Maxous's interactions with the slot; that is
not
scum bussing a scumbuddy.
Edit:
Nevermind; TSO started with the game. However, statement stands--both RachMarie (AA9's actual replacement)
and
TSO are unlikely to be partners, because Maxous's later TSO posts don't look like a scum interacting with a scumbuddy anyway. So, statement stands.
In post 83, Maxous wrote:Speaking of, Bulba gives me a bad gut feeling in general, #63 especially seems disingenuous.
This, however, is quite possibly scum distancing a scumbuddy.
For what it's worth--don't think Maxous is scum with Matias, either. Toomai is possible, but neither probable nor improbable.
In post 219, Maxous wrote:- Garmr: His first post was really comfortable(tonally), no sign of scum caution or nerves to it - and was a big difference to his early play in a mini normal I was in with him recently (in which he was scum). There is a massive difference here between this game and that game.
-Slandaar: I don't feel like he would of written #18 as scum, not a strong read but eh. (since then, his play has been ok)
- ArcAngel: What I was suspecting about Arc was that she delayed starting the game because she was strategising with her buddies pre-game first (since I happened to see her post elsewhere without confirming here) but her complete lack of activity since has blown that theory out of the water.
- Desperado: I liked how he was pro-active and agressive in pushing the Yuni wagon early, as I think scum would of voted and sat back at the point.
- Aptil: Yeah, his post being weak was the reason I was meh on him.
- JKLM: I liked him early because his posts were full of aggression and conviction
I'm also considering Slandaar being fire for this, but it's something I need to analyze some more in detail to figure out for sure.
In post 404, Maxous wrote: T S O - going nullish, not explaining Dry-Fit scum is getting tiresome and little other commentary.
#281 comes across as towny though
Bulbazak - seems town sans dodgy vote on JKLM(early push was weak)
Antihero (Lawrencelot) - ??
Matias - leaning scum
Desperado - town I think. Only hard-pusher of Dry-Fit. Putting his neck on the line.
evilpacman18 *- leaning town
JKLM - not so sure atm
OhGodMyLife *- ??
mastin2 - leaning scum. Bad Dry-fit push, bad attack on Bulba and way too much fluff. Memories of Town!Mastin being more purposeful and direct with his posting.
PeregrineV *- felt like he was townish earlier but bad dry-fit vote.
Garmr - town
aptil - pfft ??
YuniChikako - town
ArcAngel9 *- ??
Slandaar - town
Yiley - town-ish? he should post thoughts on something.
Toomai - scummy
Dry-fit - idk?
Here's another one. Bulbazak is not someone I'd think he'd have as a townread off of the content he posted, which is one reason I'm thinking Bulbazak might be a buddy. I'm thinking that
if
Toomai is scum, it's opposite-faction (Ice) to him. Same goes for Matias. PeregrineV for that matter.
But I'm actually really liking that Slandaar-Bulbazak conspiracy theory of mine right now.
In post 100, ElectricSavages wrote:Yunichikawowwow [8]
-
Garmr
,
Slandaar
, Desperado,
Bulbazak
,
Dry-fit
, Yiley,
JKLM
, PeregrineV
Bulbazak [3]
- ArcAngel9, mastin 2, Yunichikawowwow
Not Voting [4]
- T S O, Lawrencelot, evilpacman18, OhGodMyLife
Keep coming back to this. The Bulbazak wagon I'm quite certain is all town. The Yunichika wagon is going to have two or three scum on it, most likely. Which leaves 3-4 off. Of those voting, we've got one confirmed in Maxous. Matias I need a reread on, aptil's town, and Toomai's a mild scumread. Which leaves anywhere from 0-2 scum in the Not Voting pile. (Depending on Matias and Toomai's alignments.) TSO's town, OGML's confirmed to be town, which leaves Lawrencelot (Antihero/NJAC) and Evilpacman18.
Basically, I'm looking at Bulbazak and Slandaar for fire-scum on the wagon, PV as Ice-scum on the wagon, and two ice-scum off the wagon--focusing on NJAC and Toomai, with a need to analyze Matias and evilpacman18. (Also a need to analyze Desp and Yiley, despite townreading both.)
In other words, a scumteam callout of
{Maxous, Bulb, Slandaar}
and
{PeregrineV, Toomai, NJAC}
.
However, this is just from the one wagon analyzed to death and a general outlook on the gamestate. I still need to look at the other wagons and cross-reference with isos of other players. (For instance, I haven't isoed Bulb or Slandaar to see if the Maxous connection is a probable pairing, or for that matter, if their interactions with one another make for a probable pairing. Off the top of my head, however, I don't recall any interaction which makes the pairing look doubtful.)
In post 234, ElectricSavages wrote:Dry - Fit[5]
-Desperado, Matias, Yiley, mastin2, T S O
Yunichikawowwow [4]
- Slandaar, JKLM, PeregrineV, OhGodMyLife
Yiley [2]
- Toomai, Garmr
Toomai [2]
- Maxous, Dry-fit
Maxous [1]
- Yunichikawowwow
Not Voting [2]
- Antihero, evilpacman18,
This, for instance, needs to be addressed. TSO's town. But both Desperado and Yiley were on this Dry-fit wagon AND the Yunichika wagon before it. They're townreads, but I'm concerned about them from this alone, and the lack of obviously-visible scum. Matias is, again, someone I need to analyze, because he looks like the most probable name for scum, and I need to re-evaluate my read on him to be sure.
Also, there's probably one or two scum lingering on the Yunichika wagon, which again is why I'm looking at Slandaar and PeregrineV.
In post 275, ElectricSavages wrote:Dry - Fit[6]
-Desperado, Matias, Yiley, mastin2, T S O, Toomai
Yunichikawowwow [4]
- Slandaar, JKLM, PeregrineV, OhGodMyLife
Toomai [2]
- Maxous, Dry-fit
JKLM [2]
- Bulbazak, Garmr
Maxous [1]
- Yunichikawowwow
Not Voting [2]
- Antihero, evilpacman18,
This as the first peak of the wagon gives a potential answer in Toomai, but it's again something I need to follow through on.
In post 375, ElectricSavages wrote:Dry - Fit[8]
-Desperado, Matias, Yiley, mastin2, T S O, OhGodMyLife, PeregrineV, JKLM
JKLM [3]
- Bulbazak, Garmr, Toomai
Toomai [2]
- Maxous, Dry-fit
Yunichikawowwow [1]
- Slandaar
Maxous [1]
- Yunichikawowwow
Not Voting [2]
- Antihero, evilpacman18,
Here's another concern. While there are potential Ice-scum on the Dry-fit wagon, I don't really see anyone on the wagon that I've got as a realistic Fire-scum candidate. I can take another look at Maxous's reads and crossreference nulls/towns to be sure of things, but basically, this is one of my main concerns as far as my Bulb/Slandaar theory goes. I seriously will need to look at this area, in-context, to see how things were going down at that point.
In post 421, ElectricSavages wrote:Dry - Fit[8]
-Desperado, Matias, Yiley, mastin2, T S O, OhGodMyLife, PeregrineV, JKLM
JKLM [5]
- Bulbazak, Garmr, Toomai, evilpacman18, Maxous
Maxous [1]
- Yunichikawowwow
Not Voting [1]
- Antihero
Honestly, this begs the question. Dry-fit wasn't scum. Why was there a counter-wagon to him forming? My best guess is that one or more of the other wagons in the previous votecount (Toomai/Yunichika/Bulbazak/Desperado/Maxous) was on scum, and that they wanted to ensure that the lynch was guaranteed to--if not on town--at least not be on their faction of scum. In particular, I'm thinking about the Toomai and Bulbazak wagons. Probably not for the same faction, but both having a significant chance of being FROM a faction.
As previously-stated, the JKLM wagon is quite likely to have more than one scum on it. Bulbazak/Toomai are my best guesses. Bulb as Fire and Toomai as Ice.
In post 475, ElectricSavages wrote:Dry - Fit[10]
-Desperado, Matias, Yiley, mastin2, T S O, OhGodMyLife, PeregrineV, JKLM, Yunichikawowwow, aptil
[LYNCH]
JKLM [5]
- Bulbazak, Garmr, Toomai, evilpacman18, Maxous
Not Voting [1]
- Antihero
My main concern is the utter lack of Fire candidates on the wagon, not to mention, how I've only got one strong Ice candidate on there. I'm not going to arbitrarily assume the wagon must have some number of scum; it's fully possible the scum wanted to avoid it (or if not, coincidentally ended up mostly/entirely avoiding it anyway), and assuming there must be some number of scum on the wagon is bound to fail. However...at the same time? Assuming there
isn't
some number of scum on the wagon is equally as naive, when generally, there will be. This is where circumstances become really, REALLY important, and basically, this is a wagon that I'm going to be continually coming back to and re-analyzing as we get new pieces of info. Right
now
, off of what I've got, my best guess is that, yes, against the odds, this wagon was mostly town. But I still need to investigate all the same.
In post 513, ElectricSavages wrote:Yunichikawowwow [4]
- Bulbazak, Garmr, Toomai, PeregrineV,
Toomai [2]
- aptil, Yiley
Yunichikawowwow [1]
- Matias
This is a scum-driven wagon, too. I realize that it might be a bit unlikely for the majority of the wagon to be scum, but that wagon on Yunichika is not town. I'm going to need to look to see all the people who voted her, since I don't entirely trust the VCs to have all of them.
This is all preliminary analysis. As is evident, it's basically phase one; I need to put a lot more work into it to form a better conclusion. It'll have to do for now, though, because I've got other obligations to attend to.
. Here you go: <3. Better now?
