NY 169: The EPIC XD Mafia Game of Greatness (Game Over)

[Empire]

Day 2, Votecount 21

MafiaSSK (8)

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zMuffinMan, geists, Desperado, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana, Bert, Generic, Cephrir

Casso the King of Seals (3)

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goodmorning, DOMO, Norlkaz

Bert (2)

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KoreanBBQ, Ser Arthur Dayne

Desperado (1)

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MC Maraca

Ser Arthur Dayne (1)

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pieguyn

Cephrir (1)

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F-16_Fighting_Falcon

Not Voting (2)

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MafiaSSK, BROseidon

With 18 alive, it takes 10 to lynch! Deadline is on January 11th at 10:10 AM EST (expired on 2014-01-11 11:10:12)

Mod Notes

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Generic is V/LA until Sunday.

[Casso the King of Seals]

If SSK somehow flips town this wagon needs a good look at. Those townies who are voting for him, it's premature ejaculation, pure and simple. The only reason I can think of to lynch him today is in case he's actually scum RB'er faking doc, but no-one is arguing this, and more to the point, he's not fighting his lynch in a manner that makes me think he's important to scum. If he's scum, then good chance he's being bussed to take heat off other scum. And if he's town, this is a fistpump lynch for scum.

I do not like this lynch.

I believe that if there is a gunsmith and a doctor in this game, then scum will have some method of countering it that's better than a mafia doctor (likely a roleblocker). If scum have a roleblocker, then they will probably block SSK-town and kill you (pretty much the same actions they would take if SSK-scum). This means that leaving him alive will do nothing for the town since he's likely to be lynched anyways and won't be able to use his night action. I would be all for leaving him alive if he showed some semblance of towniness, but he hasn't. At all.

[Casso the King of Seals]

And yeah I realise we've been through this nacho, I'm now reading the exchange we had at the time. You argue that you're not all that assertive. Well actually you are. And even so, it's not a question of assertiveness, it's about mindset. It feels like it comes from scum, not town. Every time I try to interpret that comment, it feels like a scumslip.

I never said that I wasn't assertive; I said that I'm not as assertive about my own towniness as others are. Scumtells are things that don't always show up in scum play and sometimes show up in town play; for example, being lucky and apathetic day 1 IS a scumtell for me (since it happens more often when I am scum). Does that mean that every time it happens I am scum? No, but it is still a scumtell for me.

Picking up on crumbs during the day play is something that I'm not sure is a scumtell for me. It certainly is possible; generally when I PR hunt as scum, I do it primarily during the night and I am not looking for as many subtleties as I am as town because I am looking more for mislynches and not alignments. Does that translate into me picking up on more crumbs as town? No, I don't think so; I've shown myself to be blind to those sorts of things as town because I don't care about them so much.

I could see your problem if this my response to someone calling me scum was "no, I don't think I'm scum" but that was a response to a specific tell and nothing more.

[Casso the King of Seals]

We should have lynched someone thirty pages ago.

Stuff like this I don't like either. It's not the first time casso has been talking in this way, looking for faster wagons etc. Did scum ever get quicklynched on d1?

This was a Thor post. He says things like this regardless of alignment.

[Casso the King of Seals]

I don't even feel like I want to debate Desp.
His case is silly - anyone who thinks otherwise can tell me why.

This doesn't much feel like town nacho either. I wouldn't expect him to pass the onus onto others when it comes to defending himself against a case he deems silly.

You are correct; this is not town Nacho.
This is town Thor.

[geists]

I don't believe nacho subscribes to the idea of long d1 being good for scum. Was is xenoblade where he was ridiculously active throughout the day and thriving? He was really in the groove. Why is he so against a long d1 here?

I"m pretty sure that's because it was a thor-post.

Though scum-nacho does like quicklynches. And town-nacho sometimes is in a rush, too. This game is an example of town-Nacho wanting to get the lynches done and dusted: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=33202

[Casso the King of Seals]

I don't believe nacho subscribes to the idea of long d1 being good for scum. Was is xenoblade where he was ridiculously active throughout the day and thriving? He was really in the groove. Why is he so against a long d1 here?

I"m pretty sure that's because it was a thor-post.

Though scum-nacho does like quicklynches. And town-nacho sometimes is in a rush, too. This game is an example of town-Nacho wanting to get the lynches done and dusted: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=33202

yup

[KoreanBBQ]

I do not like this lynch.

I do not like it either. But as i said... meh.

I can understand meh with a couple of days left, but I'm hating that you're voting for a lynch you do not like with plenty of time to go.

The meta in me wants to call this town 'cause Hana pulled the same stunt in FEA. The Nero in me wants this dead.

[KoreanBBQ]

Sudden push to end this day suggests we're onto something with casso. We get so much from his lynch now. If he flips scum, especially strong PR scum, then this push to kill of a claimed doc is scummy as hell, regardless of SSK's actual alignment.

I've played SSK before. He's naturally scummy. I think he is scum here, but he could just be the world's scummiest townie and actually a fucking doc. So please let's not kill him, because doing so is PREMATURE EJACULATION at best, and a horrible mistake at worst.

He is a claimed doc that didn't die in the night... Only me and koreanBBQ pushed this to my knowledge so why would scum leave a town doc alive and NOT toss the suspicion about?

Well, if he's a town doc then leaving him alive creates a ton of WIFOM and with his playstyle being what it is...I think scum would be more likely to let town lead this and then latch on later. Who was it the gave you shit over wanting to lynch SSK?

[KoreanBBQ]

There's close to a week left till dl so this quick sudden surge on SSK looks p bad. Out of Hana, Bert, Gen, and Cephir, I'm looking at Bert and Cephir.

[Cephrir]

It actually doesn't look very bad at all? What's bad about it? Do you take issue with 4544 then?

[Empire]

Prodding MafiaSSK.

[KoreanBBQ]

It actually doesn't look very bad at all? What's bad about it? Do you take issue with 4544 then?

lol. Like you'd agree that his wagon was bad when its a wagon that YOU support. I just tend to think that quick sudden surges are usually some scum piling on. Set up wise, a doc makes plenty of sense given that there were atleast TWO killing roles (mafia kill + vig kill) AND there's some folks that are posting like its maybe multiball for some odd reason. Would be pretty lame of Empire to give town no protective roles in a multikill game. Now I'm not advocating a protective claim but I agree with whomever (domo?) that this isn't the optimal lynch. What really worries me is that its nearly a week to lynch and folks are just like "ok, we give up."

Now my thoughts on Mrs. and Mr. Mara are that I hate them and like both GM and Mara make me go crazy. I think their reason for claiming was pretty lame and Mara claimed all early like WOT. GM also had allot of suspicion on their slot so did Mara claim mason to keep us from lynching GM?

GIF, I need you to read what I wrote in the qt and tell me if you think I should post about it?

[KoreanBBQ]

Cephrir , your Bert and Bro reads plox.

[Norlkaz]

PLEASE ABORT.
Geists, I think you have chosen poorly.
First and most importantly, SSK is NOT likely to flip scum for behavioral reasons I shall explain when we have more time.
His doctor claim has gone uncountered. I find it unlikely we have no protective role.
Doctor is valuable here because we have a lot of other roles claimed AND we're on evens with our vig dead.
The high likelihood scum will shoot him if we leave him alone is a factor as well.

[geists]

PLEASE ABORT.
Geists, I think you have chosen poorly.
First and most importantly, SSK is NOT likely to flip scum for behavioral reasons I shall explain when we have more time.
His doctor claim has gone uncountered. I find it unlikely we have no protective role.
Doctor is valuable here because we have a lot of other roles claimed AND we're on evens with our vig dead.
The high likelihood scum will shoot him if we leave him alone is a factor as well.

I don't agree with Nati on this, but I'm finding the various actions and reactions to this wagon quite interesting.

[KoreanBBQ]

fery, what's your read on Bert? And if its not a town read will you help me lynch it?

[BROseidon]

His doctor claim has gone uncountered. I find it unlikely we have no protective role.
Doctor is valuable here because we have a lot of other roles claimed AND we're on evens with our vig dead.
The high likelihood scum will shoot him if we leave him alone is a factor as well.

Why the fuck would another protective role claim when SSK is relatively useless to scum at this point and will get auto-sorted eventually.

And yeah I haven't caught up yet. Hadn't played LoL in a while and my LP had decayed to -7, so I had to go stomp some newbs as Leona.

[geists]

fery, what's your read on Bert? And if its not a town read will you help me lynch it?

His reactions to me on day 1 were a lot more like Newbie 1415 and Newbie 1429 than like Open 534. I was intentionally pushing his buttons there for a bit because I wanted to be sure the paranoia was real this time.

I'd really like to hear from Cabd about Bert's paranoia in scum-games, though.

[BROseidon]

@Norlkaz:

why am I scum? also, who is scum on the assumption that I'm town?

you're aware that by forming a scumteam based entirely off me everything gets fked up if I'm town right? mb it's just me but that way of forming reads often leads to confbias and large potential for error if your initial assumptions (me-scum) are wrong. why would you take that kind of approach in forming your reads? like I can't see why you'd do that given how prone to error it is 0.0

Cabd/ffery/GiF/Nacho/Desp?

How does this compare to how people responded to me in Xenogears for primarily pushing associative cases off of Mala?

You're making my head hurt.

What day of Xenogears are you talking about and who are you asking about it?

Days 2-5.

Desp sticks out for attacking me for using that sort of associative tell argument against him/muffin/someone else maybe Aj?, but I remember other people doing it as well after I posted my massive catchup at the start of day 2 (mollie maybe did? I don't want to go reread it b/c the me/mollie fight was incredibly frustrating and stupid and I'd rather not relive that)

[BROseidon]

No. The push on Nero Cain became a bus eventually, but when DrPepper was lynched the push to bus was mostly pushed by me and he followed along because DrPepper was getting lynched with or without him.

ftr this drops my muffin town read into a null to null-scum read then.

The initial town read was based on him usually hard-bussing his scum mates as scum, since he'd done that in every scum game of his that I'd seen. That said, if he has a recent pattern of not doing that, then that's less valid, and the apathy could easily be coming from the place of muffin liking town more than scum.

[BROseidon]

yeah, well i happen to have a very rare affliction that i'm pretty sure nobody else in this game suffers from, and i'm actually rather sensitive about it *sob* *sob*. the truth is... i'm australian

lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

Australia's awesome, though. I'd totally move to Sydney or Melbourne (or possibly other cities but those are the only 2 I've been to)

[geists]

@Norlkaz:

why am I scum? also, who is scum on the assumption that I'm town?

you're aware that by forming a scumteam based entirely off me everything gets fked up if I'm town right? mb it's just me but that way of forming reads often leads to confbias and large potential for error if your initial assumptions (me-scum) are wrong. why would you take that kind of approach in forming your reads? like I can't see why you'd do that given how prone to error it is 0.0

Cabd/ffery/GiF/Nacho/Desp?

How does this compare to how people responded to me in Xenogears for primarily pushing associative cases off of Mala?

You're making my head hurt.

What day of Xenogears are you talking about and who are you asking about it?

Days 2-5.

Desp sticks out for attacking me for using that sort of associative tell argument against him/muffin/someone else maybe Aj?, but I remember other people doing it as well after I posted my massive catchup at the start of day 2 (mollie maybe did? I don't want to go reread it b/c the me/mollie fight was incredibly frustrating and stupid and I'd rather not relive that)

I was already dead, so I probably didn't follow that stuff closely enough. Mala was lynched on day..3? I forget who was lynched day 2. Nick maybe. Is this how you remember Mala defending against your associative arguments?

Anyway, was the pushback about associative tells because mala hadn't flipped at the time? Anyway, I don't think what pieguyn is doing is an attack so much as a defense. It's further than I would push back, though. I'd probably just ask something like "what would me flipping town do to your reads?" Or "pretend I'm town. Which of those reads is still valid?"

But, pieguy writes considerably more dense and spell-it-all-out posts than I do.

[Cephrir]

It actually doesn't look very bad at all? What's bad about it? Do you take issue with 4544 then?

lol. Like you'd agree that his wagon was bad when its a wagon that YOU support. I just tend to think that quick sudden surges are usually some scum piling on. Set up wise, a doc makes plenty of sense given that there were atleast TWO killing roles (mafia kill + vig kill) AND there's some folks that are posting like its maybe multiball for some odd reason. Would be pretty lame of Empire to give town no protective roles in a multikill game. Now I'm not advocating a protective claim but I agree with whomever (domo?) that this isn't the optimal lynch. What really worries me is that its nearly a week to lynch and folks are just like "ok, we give up."

Now my thoughts on Mrs. and Mr. Mara are that I hate them and like both GM and Mara make me go crazy. I think their reason for claiming was pretty lame and Mara claimed all early like WOT. GM also had allot of suspicion on their slot so did Mara claim mason to keep us from lynching GM?

GIF, I need you to read what I wrote in the qt and tell me if you think I should post about it?

Why not a jailkeeper or bodyguard, something that can coexist with a doc and wouldn't *need* to cc?

I didn't ask you about MCM, I asked you about their post. What's wrong with the logic? You just think SSK is town? If so, you'll need a better reason than "because there's gonna be a doc in the setup".

Cephrir , your Bert and Bro reads plox.

Town and probably town.

PLEASE ABORT.
Geists, I think you have chosen poorly.
First and most importantly, SSK is NOT likely to flip scum for behavioral reasons I shall explain when we have more time.
His doctor claim has gone uncountered. I find it unlikely we have no protective role.
Doctor is valuable here because we have a lot of other roles claimed AND we're on evens with our vig dead.
The high likelihood scum will shoot him if we leave him alone is a factor as well.

Doctor and protective role are not congruent.

Please, please give me a decent behavioral reason SSK is town though, because I can't find one.

Newsflash, if SSK is a doc A) there is a scum roleblocker and B) scum are never going to shoot him b/c they KNOW we will lynch him eventually.

[BROseidon]

I was already dead, so I probably didn't follow that stuff closely enough. Mala was lynched on day..3? I forget who was lynched day 2. Nick maybe. Is this how you remember Mala defending against your associative arguments?

Anyway, was the pushback about associative tells because mala hadn't flipped at the time? Anyway, I don't think what pieguyn is doing is an attack so much as a defense. It's further than I would push back, though. I'd probably just ask something like "what would me flipping town do to your reads?" Or "pretend I'm town. Which of those reads is still valid?"

Yeah, Mala was lynched on day 3, but there were a fair number of people scum reading her (she would have been lynched day 2 if Majiffy had let mollie push the way she wanted to instead of on to nick, or if me/other townies had just said no to mollie/jiffy and pushed Mala through anyways). Still, a lot of people didn't like that I was working primarily through associative tells to try to discern scum, instead of gunning for the scummiest individual players, and a fair number of people attacked me for doing it.

Rest of your post is something of a decent answer.