Animal Crossing Mafia: Game over

[IH]

No. The only thing Battle Mage did is solidify things, and eliminate it, mmk? You don't ever direct the doc after a cop claims. A doc knows what to do, or it should. You should at least treat it as a given.

Now, what Battle Mage has done has pretty much taken all the mystery away from it, and solidified it for scum to target someone else, and not risk hitting doc protection.

= (

[Kison]

If Lowell is not the cop, then why wouldn't the best case scenario be for the real cop to counter claim? We'd bag us a scum right off the bat and confirm the cop all in one swoop.

I have to say I immensely dislike this logic. A counter-claim could very well be scum trying to kamakazi to get rid of the cop. As you say it, any counter claim would denounce Lowell as 100% positively scum. That is horribly wrong.*

IH

-- How many scum would you safely predict there are in this game?

[Yamahako]

If Lowell is not the cop, then why wouldn't the best case scenario be for the real cop to counter claim? We'd bag us a scum right off the bat and confirm the cop all in one swoop.

I have to say I immensely dislike this logic. A counter-claim could very well be scum trying to kamakazi to get rid of the cop. As you say it, any counter claim would denounce Lowell as 100% positively scum. That is horribly wrong.*

Obviously you wouldn't take either person at face value if there WAS a counter claim. But given the strangness of Lowell's claim I would be skeptical of him if anyone else had come forward.

[TBuG]

Pbug, why did you vote Yamahako?

a) I think he's scum, and there was no point in voting Rand Althor.
b) Your argument made sense.
c) Asparagus.

[Yamahako]

Pbug, why did you vote Yamahako?

a) I think he's scum, and there was no point in voting Rand Althor.
b) Your argument made sense.
c) Asparagus.

is it c?

[TBuG]

I mean those are all of my reasons.

[IH]

Just making sure Pbug. I thought perhaps you were trying to jump on a wagon without any reasoning.

I have to say I immensely dislike this logic. A counter-claim could very well be scum trying to kamakazi to get rid of the cop. As you say it, any counter claim would denounce Lowell as 100% positively scum. That is horribly wrong.*

IH -- How many scum would you safely predict there are in this game?

4 in one group with some nice powers and an SK/cult, perhaps even a survivor.

OR

If there is only one group of scum, and nothing else (doubt it) I'd safely say.... perhaps five. That'd be 1 scum for every four townies.

OR

2 groups of scum with 3 members each, with some powers, maybe a survivor or an SK, though that would be heavy on the anti town.


So anywhere from 4-8 perhaps, thought not all on the same team.

[Kison]

So let's then assume there are 4 scum for now.

Let us assume that tonight we will lynch a townie, as we most likely will, since we assumed 4 scum VS 20 players, leaving us with a 1/5 chance of being correct. Let's try to look at a little statistics to see how long it would probably take Lowell to find scum...

We began with 21 players. 1 was killed last night(20). However, Lowell has no reason to investigate himself(19). He also claims to have investigated another townie(18). We also assume that one townie will be lynched tonight(17). That leaves Lowell with 17 targets to choose from tonight.

(4 / 17) = (23.5% chance of finding scum)

One player will be nightkilled. Let's again assume another townie is lynched on day two. He also investigated someone the previous night, so will not investigate them again. Lowell now has 14 targets to check during the second evening.

(4 / 14) = (28.6% chance of finding scum)

So by day 4, Lowell would have a 52.1% chance of finiding scum through investigations. I'd begin to be suspicious if by then he has not found anyone. If by day 5 he continues to claim that he has found no scum, I would say we should

seriously

reconsider his alignment, as he'd be in the 75% range, not to mention failure on DAY ONE as well.

Basically what I'm saying is, we could preserve his list on the chance that he turns out to be a legit cop while still disproving him later in the game. Remember, it doesn't matter when we lynch him if he's scum, just as long as we do.

I realize he may try to claim things like "no result", but what would you have done if he claimed that tomorrow anyways?

[GreenLiquid]

Theopor_COD is replacing Cheesefan.

[theopor_COD]

Hello all. Printing off thread will post thoughts when I've divulged it.

[IH]

The whole point of Lowell giving his result is a list of people and their alignments from later on, instead of a list he can compose, that are probably going to be halfway full of dead people he can craft up after already knowing their roles.

[IH]

You are also assuming none of those investigations are killed either.

[Battle Mage]

in which case we get to keep the cop, despite his claim, and the Doc has the opportunity to protect someone else. Its a vicious cycle, and i wanted to ensure that the Doc was clear on that.
BM

No. The only thing Battle Mage did is solidify things, and eliminate it, mmk? You don't ever direct the doc after a cop claims. A doc knows what to do, or it should. You should at least treat it as a given.

Now, what Battle Mage has done has pretty much taken all the mystery away from it, and solidified it for scum to target someone else, and not risk hitting doc protection.

= (

[Toaster Strudel]

Can we lynch Rand already?

[Kison]

The whole point of Lowell giving his result is a list of people and their alignments from later on, instead of a list he can compose, that are probably going to be halfway full of dead people he can craft up after already knowing their roles.

True... Just trying to think of alternatives.

[theopor_COD]

Can we lynch Rand already?

I'd prefer it if we lynched you.

Post coming soon.

[theopor_COD]

Okay's - I've read it all a couple of times, made various scrawled notes which I'm now struggling to decipher. One thing that stands out is the lack of involvement seems plenty of ppl were about posting when the bells were being distributed since then they've gone to ground.

Looking at Twito, Jules, Fircoal, Ubertimmy, CDB on this mainly - few others have posted but seem to be afraid to post opinions just following ppl and throwing a few votes here and there looking at Rand Alt, WizardCat, ~n9v~, PBug slightly, TS and OTU here. AC1983 just needs to think before posting some of his posts have made me cringe.

In the town camp I've got positives on Stalling Champ, IH, Kison, Cloud all seem genuine, not clearing em by any means, but they look better than most - pretty much undecided on Lowell's claim but agree he should be ignored for now, if he's scum pulling a fast one he'll get caught and I like IH's proposal that he reveals his investigations tomorrow, of course he may get blocked if the scum have a role blocker which is possible. I wasn't overly keen of the ppl forcing him to reveal his day one investigation as for all we know he could have got an innocent on a Doc, yeh scum don't know that, all they know is so and so is a vanilla, but I'd prefer not to take the chance, because we could easily out another power role on day one. Yamahoko has made a batch of scummy posts not least over the cop claims, although I think on the whole his response has been pretty solid, mind I also wasn't overly keen on the "IH is scum" post from the message board, again undecided on him. Battle Mage seems to be playing the usual Battle Mage way so undecided on him, mind I wish he'd stop harping on about the Doctor.

Anyway -

We kick off with the distributing off the bells. At this point I'm unsure how useful the bells and items are, from first impression some of things sound pretty crap, a few ppl have made reference to buying items, thus if they're crappy why reveal your role yourself to get more bells, we get two a night any least so by Day 3 I'm thinking everyone could have a net, for all we know it could be pile a poo aswell. It also seems during the opening phase discussion some ppl more than others are keen to get Yos's bells than others.

Pre Bells

Yama self votes.
Several random votes mainly on IH.
Jules doesn't realise we're voting for bells.
RA makes reference to Bulletin Board, Kison thinks it should be ignored
More random votes, more for IH based on message on board from PO. Wonder what the PO means? Post Office? Can't think of much else.

TS jokes about, doesn't understand whats going on

Lowell self votes - then drops hint that bells may be important
CDB comments on IH wagon, seems random to me, jealousy maybe
CDB reiterates importance of bells in 37
RA votes CDB for bells straight away
Pbug say's he bought a shovel, was it any good?
65 is funny but totally irrelevant RA tries to spell distribution, gets it wrong and then wrong again
IH posts that bells ought to go to someone than nobody
AC1983 says he bought an orange box and its shite, thanks I won't buy one
70 Lowell brings up Cop for first time, he sure wants them two bells. Is he trying to out the cop?
CDB posts 2 bells aren't really warranting of a cop claim - I'd agree if 1 bell buys an orange box and it's rubbish.
Yomohoko another keen on the bells
~n9v~ dead against distributing the bells, possible distancing here, trying to look pro town maybe? Although I think most townies are in agreement giving the bells to someone has better odds than scum
90/91 IH and Kison discuss Lowell's cop post,

it's been ignored by RA, Pbug, WizardCat, OTU and Yama - erm can I ask you five why did you not make any comment on it?

93 OTU repeats someone else, hate repetition, town think for themselves, scum follow others.
Lowell claims COP!! For 2 bells crikey. Claims he has an innocent, asks for Doc protection, then wants all the bells going! Erm I'm not sure what to make of it, I'm certainly not going to be completely convinced that he's the cop, but it'd be a crazy move for scum to claim cop for the bells, for instance say there's 4 of em, they already have what 12 bells as a team, Why risk it for 2 bells for chrissake. I'd not want a real cop counterclaiming either, so as it stands I believe Lowell is innocent town cop until proven guilty, mind he should be watched very closely.
SC and CDB vote Lowell for bells. SC buys a Blue Diary.

104 TS totally ignores Lowell's cop claim, why again, ignorance or what

Pbug, ~n9v~ vote Lowell for bells.
Kison posts some suspicion first person to do so, previous posters didn't. Makes me like Kison
OTU seems fishing 110
CDB/SC both believe claim
OTU backtracks
116 interesting post, discusses Lowell's claim
Jules. RA. Fircoal all vote Lowell in hardly any discussion, what gives guys?
Bells go to Lowell we move on to Lynching.

Post Bells

Timmy and TS straight off vote Lowell

Yama votes OTU, yeh I'd prob vote there aswell

TS needs to read thread didn't even know bells had been distributed, get it with.

CDB refers to the IH wagon looking scummy. I'm not so sure it's more random, plus there was the message aswell. Pings my scumdar a bit CDB bringing this up, looks to be looking for an easy lynch candidate.

FOS CDB

IH kind of fishes like OTU did previous after Lowell's innocent
CDB votes IH
~n9v~ another one after the innocent
Few awful posts from AC1983 namely 147, 150 and 152.
Pbug and SC vote AC - SC slighlty bandwaggoing
156 slightly scummy aswell, mafia would prefer IC players dead
Yama gives another bell to Lowell, thus he should have five now. No news on what the net is mind.
175 sums up the cop stuff
SC wants no more bells to go to Lowell, I'd agree until we know his allegiance for sure
179 what is that all about, no Doc? Kind of fishing for it, AC claims he has a role of some kind
OTU posts to appear not inactive, scummy to me
AC advertising role

TS and Yama bot hop onto IH wagon.

RA votes IH
Lowell votes AC
Don't like 200 - cop wouldn't neccesarily come forward for two bells
IH looks pro-town offering both sides of the argument

TS keeps posting rubbish, not commenting on any of the cop stuff

211 AC keeps harping on about the innocent
OTU does a 360 and votes AC after he earlier wanted same thing
216 I agree with, Lowell did seem keen on them bells, we should keep an open mind
217 reasonable effort at guiding AC
Lowell unvotes AC
More pushing against IH
IH turns onto Yama 231, and I like 236 from IH, more discussion on the cop claim
SC doesn't believe claim but is open minded
~n9v~ again wants innocent revealed
Lowell asks for Doc again
249 is scummy from Yama, say's a real cop should counterclaim
249 is probably worthy of a vote so

FOS Yahamoko

Pbug then wants innocent confirmed
270 again scummy
Only about 6 ppl posting, Scum doing it in the shadows?
I need to re-read around 275 getting tired
Yama brings up bulletin board "IH is scum" again. This is scummy as . . .
I like Cloud in 281, suggests Lowell should be ignored for now, good basis for vote on Yama

TS votes Yama no reason

Twito not contribtuing
292 IH brings up Lowell reveal innocent, to test Lowell, agree he needs testing not yet though
RA 294 votes Yama, no reasoning.

Scummy vote but no more so than TS's which was largely ignored.

FOS RA

Yama's defence to his wagon seems good to me and rational, aside from pointing out IH is scum

TS unvotes votes RA. Somewhere to lay your hat maybe?

Then Kison, ~n9v~, Pbug vote RA
299 RA argues he got idea from Cloud's post - seems scummy either he's scum or town after a lynch or he's not really thinking for himself
Yama asks for lurkers to post
SC asks why
RA unvotes - genuine mistake maybe - he should read thread
WC 308 pipes up says IH is town, Cloud looks scummy, doesn't elaborate. Pls do.
311 BM joins - talks about the Doc straight away, thinks Lowell can confirm roles, it's only alignment and then it depends on sanity
IH 315 need to re-read
Pbug votes Yama on back of it, again hopping all over, following ppl
323 BM directs Doc again pls stop - doesn't make reference to cop role slip
Some talk of possible scum groups - Kison asks IH for opinion

TS wants RA lynched

Anyway that's most of what I've got down to sum up - more ppl need to contribute as for a vote well I'd like some pressure on ppl who keep vote hopping onto wagons and not offering much in the way of help to the town, therefore

Vote TS

But there's plenty of others I'm not liking. I've bolded where I've made notes on TS for clarity of my vote, I'd also be happy voting CDB, RA and OTU for other reasons but TS looks the most scummy to me. Oh and can some of the others contribute pls.

[Kison]

I see legitimate reasoning for voting OTU, RA, Yamahoko, and TS, and I have been considering moving my move. However, you did highlight some good points on TS that I have not kept track of, and therefore will look into those in more depth tomorrow before I decide on whether or not I'll move my vote.

I don't think CDB is scum just yet, but I do find it odd that he has vanished. I have noticed this as well.

All in all, good analysis and summary of the game thus far.

[IH]

Speaking of the bulletin board...

I don't understand why Yamahako would bring up the board if he is "pretty sure" about Lowell being the cop. Only he would have known my alignment, and he has explicitly told us he has an innocent.

I feel happy with a yama lynch at the moment.

[Yamahako]

Speaking of the bulletin board...

I don't understand why Yamahako would bring up the board if he is "pretty sure" about Lowell being the cop. Only he would have known my alignment, and he has explicitly told us he has an innocent.

I feel happy with a yama lynch at the moment.

I think the bulletin board kinda clears you if lowell is the cop :-/ I thought I said that already...

Part of my role involves putting things on the bulletin board as well, which is the only reason I'm curious about it... but I can only put one word at a time on it. That's as much as I'll say - but I'm town :-/

[Cloud]

I think the bulletin board kinda clears you if lowell is the cop :-/ I thought I said that already...

Part of my role involves putting things on the bulletin board as well, which is the only reason I'm curious about it... but I can only put one word at a time on it. That's as much as I'll say - but I'm town :-/

And the Bulletin Board can just as easily be a red herring.

The mod may also post messages on the board.

Also regarding your last post about the bulletin board, we can't assume that the cop can post on the board, nor can we assume that it must be the scum posting on it if it wasn't the cop. It could be someone's idea of a joke, it could be a way for the scum to manipulate us through reverse psychology.

Anyway, that's all I have time for right now. Back to deathly work.

[Lowell]

For the record, I did

not

post anything to the board. Nor do I have the ability to do so.

Good post, theo, good to see you here and active. Not sure that I agree with the vote, though your list of innocents looks about right to me.

[Lowell]

Right.

unvote

. Second thoughts.

[Jules]

Exams over. Woohoo. I can now give this game my complete and utter undivided attention...

I've read the thread and the people who stand out:

Lowell – claimed cop on day 1 in order to get bells. Doesn't want to reveal innocent. At this stage, there is nothing to refute his claim however he remains, in my books and hopefully in most people, an unconfirmed innocent. Is desperate for the doctor to protect him

IH – Wants Lowell to reveal who his innocent is. Getting a townie feel from him. I disagree with the fact that Lowell should reveal his innocent yet, however he has backed up his opinion on the subject with good logic. His post 275 makes sense, however my personal view is that Lowell should keep what he knows to himself just now

AFC – Complete opposite of IH. Starts off by wanting Lowell to reveal his innocent, repeatedly doesn't seem to either understand, read or take in the reasons but keeps pressing for it. He has no argument behind his press for Lowell to reveal and latterly has fallen from view

FoS: AFC

. There's also the part where he claims to have hinted at his role. Hmm

Rand Althor – 10 posts in the thread in total. Post 294 is a blatant misinterpretation of what Yama said

ubertimmy – Voted the claimed cop and apart from a totally ridiculous defence, has since deserted the thread

Yamahako – The one thing that stood out was the part where he said he could write on the bulletin board but only one word. It brought to mind a thread I read a couple of months back in the Mafia Discussion forums where someone suggested two roles, one where the town had a “media reporter” who could produce a message such as we have on the bulletin board, and a “propagandist” on the mafia side who could add/change one word of the message. Don't know what everyone thinks about that. I don't see that a role that can write one word can be of too great an advantage to the town

Stalling Champ – Getting a strong town vibe

The rest, I haven't formed opinions on following my first read up. I'll have a look through them in more detail

However, for now, it's

vote ubertimmy

from me until he explains why he's left his vote on the claimed cop for so long

[ac1983fan]

AFC – Complete opposite of IH. Starts off by wanting Lowell to reveal his innocent, repeatedly doesn't seem to either understand, read or take in the reasons but keeps pressing for it. He has no argument behind his press for Lowell to reveal and latterly has fallen from view

FoS: AFC

. There's also the part where he claims to have hinted at his role. Hmm

It's either ac or acfan or ac1983fan. AFC isn't even in the right order...

mod, votecoutn?