Newbie 1428 Game Over

[Sakura Hana]

Sakura - how does there being a tracker imply that you would be dead?

There being a tracker implies that there's not a roleblocker. Which means that there's a chance i used my protect on whoever they tried to kill and hence voiding their kill, while I can't protect myself so i was the only surefire kill + i was a PR.

[Sakura Hana]

Again this is all assuming scum isn't dumb enough to not kill a doctor they cant block.

[aptil]

I am a VT . Someone here is completely lying .
@pieguyn: in post 644 you have agreed with Grim to lynch me over him . If you think he is scum, why are you listening to him ?
@Grim and Sakura : How much of pieguyn's claim do you believe in ?

[Sakura Hana]

I will question why your asking what the chances would be if we lynched the mafia goon today that the remaining player would be the roleblocker?

I was more in the mind of asking the chances of grimgroove being his scum partner rather than his actual role.

P-Edit:

@aptil: 100% because I'm doctor so there HAS to be another PR (whether it be tracker or cop), and no PR has flipped yet.

[Sakura Hana]

Oh yeah also

Vote: aptil

You may as well have claimed scum in that post.

[aptil]

Well here we have it , Sakura is lying and must be lynched , we are not in row 2 at all .

[aptil]

Grim is the 2nd scum here . Anyone can be lynched between them .

[Grimgroove]

pieguyn - Town Cop
aptil - Vanilla Town
BigTerp - Vanilla Town
Sakura Hana - Town Doctor
Grimgroove - Vanilla Town

This is what we're looking at now.

The option of both pieguyn and Sakura Hana lying is now out of the window.

The option of both of them telling the truth may still be an option for some of you, but as it involves me being scum, I know for a fact that isn't it.

So I know one person of Sakura and pieguyn is lying. If pieguyn had been lying, then there would have either been a counter-claim to his copclaim, or a Town Tracker coming up. This is not the case, so Pieguyn is confirmed town. For sure. And so are his reads.

This makes Pieguyn and BigTerp confirmed town.

I thus know for a fact Sakura and aptil are the remaining scum. My feat will be to convince you of at least lynching aptil first, as he's confirmed scum in anyone's book.

There is no roleblocker. We are operating under column B (the one where there's just a town cop, no roleblocker or doctor).

Now to convince pieguyn of that.

[Grimgroove]

Again this is all assuming scum isn't dumb enough to not kill a doctor they cant block.

There is no doctor that needed blocking and there is no roleblocker.

This is the set-up:

1 Cop: pieguyn
6 VT's (2 remaining: BigTerp, Grimgroove)
2 goons (Sakura and aptil)

And I'm the only mislynch still available to scum, as BigTerp and pieguyn are confirmed town.

aptil is confirmed scum.

So this is between me and Sakura.

Just getting my head around to it. Hope you're following me with this.

Now I'm trying to figure out if it makes sense to lynch aptil now. What can we do during the night after that?

Pieguyn will die for certain during the next night, leaving me and Sakura, with BigTerp deciding on our fates. I don't think I can do anything to sway BigTerp through nightplans, so I suggest we don't lynch aptil today, but already today settle the deal and the game: me or Sakura.

And even though a doctor-claim "looks" strong, it really isn't. Going to provide that case on Sakura I should have provided ages ago, and then some.

[Grimgroove]

No reason to wait with this though

VOTE: Sakura Hana

More tonight.

[BigTerp]

]

	A	B	C
1	Town Jailkeeper	Vanilla Townie	Mafia Goon
2	Mafia Roleblocker	Town Cop	Town Doctor
3	Town 1-shot Bulletproof	Mafia Goon	Town Tracker

Just putting the Matrix back up for my own reference.

Sakura - how does there being a tracker imply that you would be dead?

There being a tracker implies that there's not a roleblocker. Which means that there's a chance i used my protect on whoever they tried to kill and hence voiding their kill, while I can't protect myself so i was the only surefire kill + i was a PR.

But no kills were voided. I can see where mafia would roleblock the doctor and take a shot at killing the cop night 2. But at this point in the game, why not take out the only one who has claimed? If mafia misses the cop in the NK, then there in a worse situation than if they just killed the one known townie who claimed doctor. Seems like a bit of a risk for mafia to me. Especially given the fact that since doctor was claimed there is still only a 50% chance there is even a cop in the game.

I am a VT . Someone here is completely lying .
@pieguyn: in post 644 you have agreed with Grim to lynch me over him . If you think he is scum, why are you listening to him ?
@Grim and Sakura : How much of pieguyn's claim do you believe in ?

If you are truly a VT the only option is that Sakura is lying and is scum. Now that I think about it and since everyone has claimed pie is 100% the cop. No way around it. With both the cop and doctor claiming and everyone else claiming VT, the cop claim can't be fake. The only possible fake claims are Sakuras doctor claim, Aptils VT claim and Grims VT claim. We just have to figure out if Sakura is really the doctor or not.

[BigTerp]

I am a VT . Someone here is completely lying .
@pieguyn: in post 644 you have agreed with Grim to lynch me over him . If you think he is scum, why are you listening to him ?
@Grim and Sakura : How much of pieguyn's claim do you believe in ?

This strikes me as odd. Knowing you claimed town, how can you not see that Pie is confirmed cop? No need to question anything he does at this point.

[Sakura Hana]

Especially given the fact that since doctor was claimed there is still only a 50% chance there is even a cop in the game.

Look at what grim and aptil are doing and you'll get your answer.


Or i can straight tell you... WIFOM, they had planned to get me mislynched today, look at how aptil didnt attempt to CC pieguy but he attempted to CC me, and right after every1 had claimed.

[Grimgroove]

Gah, props to Cogito Ergo Sum for this matrix set-up, somehow I thought we had this covered through figuring out the set-up but I underestimated Sakura Hana. And she beat me by even considering the idea of row 2 in such a way. Because as opposed to me, she pulled that out of her ass. I'm seriously impressed.

These are the two options that are presented to BigTerp and pieguyn:

aptil and Grimgroove scumteam with a roleblocker, pieguyn cop and Sakura doctor

aptil and Sakura scumteam without a roleblocker, pieguyn cop.

Aptil is confscum but his lynch doesn't help us any further. What can help is look at earlier interactions between the Sakura-slot and the aptil-slot, and my slot and the aptil-slot. This is something both pieguyn and BigTerp should do. I don't want to influence that process.

What I am going to try to do is show how Sakura has been playing scummy. She is scum, so she has played scummy, and I'd like to think I'll be able to show it.

As a first step, remind yourself of the reasons what lead to her L-1 position, where she was forced into a Town Doctor claim.

About that claim I want to repeat what I said earlier: even though she got lucky (she really did, given the eventual set-up), it's still a good move for scum to not claim a VT. A VT-claim wouldn't have swayed anybody at that stage. She needed a PR. Doctor was as good as any other PR claim at that point, not only due to lasting uncertainty in the event of a counterclaim, but also due to said counterclaim giving scum important info.

Try to look past the strenght of the word "doctor".

[BigTerp]

@PIE

[b/]

Please refrain from voting until we can talk through this. No need to allow a quick hammer on someone.

As much as I'm going to HATE to go back through this mess of a game, I have no choice. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

Grim - Original player
Sakura - replaced Cat Clancer
Aptil - replaced Derivan who replaced Michael Wolf

Going to need some time to do this as well. So again Pie, hold your vote until we can come to an agreement on who we string up.

[Grimgroove]

WIFOM, they had planned to get me mislynched today, look at how aptil didnt attempt to CC pieguy but he attempted to CC me, and right after every1 had claimed.

That argument is WIFOM. Bussing your partner is as good a strategy as trying to vote him out at this stage. aptil is confscum after his VT-claim, making any stance surrounding him and any stance by him null.

Someone should have asked you this way before, but:
1. Did you crumb your doctor role?
2. Can you point us to games where you were a town PR?

[Sakura Hana]

Grim - Original player
Sakura - replaced Cat Clancer
Aptil - replaced Derivan who replaced Michael Wolf

Yeah that's about right.

[Sakura Hana]

I was here pondering how the heck did grimgroove thinks scum is me and aptil when aptil being scum busing me would mean insta lose but.

There's 3 uncertain people atm which are me, aptil and grim, from any of us PoVs the other 2 are scum.

This will be decided by pieguy and bt i guess.

[aptil]

We are in a mislynch and town looses condition . The one thing most important in this condition is to hold off your vote and try and see what is happening .As you can see 3 people have voted today 1 unvoted . Now the remaining two people who have cast there votes quickly and have started there whiny cases can be seen easily . Obviously the doc claim is fake and the bussing that Grim has provided is pretty evident that even if we lynch Sakura today then he is going to be the other remaining person who has distanced himself pretty conveniently from her.

[Grimgroove]

me and aptil when aptil being scum busing me would mean insta lose but

Aptil's options were limited by the time he got here. you coached him pretty well in 646 by saying the only possible counter PR-claim is a cop.

aptil had to choose: forfeit his own game for the team's sake, or go in a head-on match against pieguyn over who's the real cop. He went for option number 1, leaving you to fight it out with me. There is nothing insta-lose about his bus, he's taking one for the team because he didn't want to CC a cop. It's a risky thing to do regardless, and you, given your lucky (argh) claim you had some town-cred you could use in this end-stage.

So all he could do was claim VT, and as a VT, you know pieguyn is speaking the truth. Just like how BigTerp knows. Just like how I know.
The reason why aptil CC'd you and not pieguyn is not because of some WIFOM strategy, like you claim in post 662, it's because it's the only option he had left apart from counterclaiming pieguyn.
Between going for me for a mislynch, or going for pieguyn, I think anybody would have made the same choice as him.

[Grimgroove]

I really think the ISOs will speak for themselves though. I seriously hope BigTerp and pieguyn will manage to be bothered.

[Sakura Hana]

More like he wanted to go head to head with me, because he's CCing me, i'm surprised im his CC and he never voted me, from his PoV I must be scum.

However I think it's proven enough that he's confscum at this point anyway. Now why dont I make sense as his partner, because if he goes 1v1 with me, and I get lynched assuming I flipped scum he would have to deal with piegu (conf cop) bigterp (conf town due to cop) and grim (impossible cross bus so conf town too). It makes no sense for me to be his partner and he deciding to bus me at this point, so the option is that you're his partner.

Why was he reserving his vote on me? he wanted a town to vote town first for a quickhammer, however grim who's his partner voted me so he went shopping for an excuse.

[aptil]

me and aptil when aptil being scum busing me would mean insta lose but

Aptil's options were limited by the time he got here. you coached him pretty well in 646 by saying the only possible counter PR-claim is a cop.

aptil had to choose: forfeit his own game for the team's sake, or go in a head-on match against pieguyn over who's the real cop. He went for option number 1, leaving you to fight it out with me. There is nothing insta-lose about his bus, he's taking one for the team because he didn't want to CC a cop. It's a risky thing to do regardless, and you, given your lucky (argh) claim you had some town-cred you could use in this end-stage.

So all he could do was claim VT, and as a VT, you know pieguyn is speaking the truth. Just like how BigTerp knows. Just like how I know.
The reason why aptil CC'd you and not pieguyn is not because of some WIFOM strategy, like you claim in post 662, it's because it's the only option he had left apart from counterclaiming pieguyn.
Between going for me for a mislynch, or going for pieguyn, I think anybody would have made the same choice as him.

Only a scum would need coaching . I said what was in my pm . That post looked like he was trying to set me up for this eventuality .

[aptil]

I really think the ISOs will speak for themselves though. I seriously hope BigTerp and pieguyn will manage to be bothered.

Yes .They will .

[Grimgroove]

Now why dont I make sense as his partner, because if he goes 1v1 with me, and I get lynched assuming I flipped scum he would have to deal with piegu (conf cop) bigterp (conf town due to cop) and grim (impossible cross bus so conf town too). It makes no sense for me to be his partner and he deciding to bus me at this point, so the option is that you're his partner.

Of course it does. This is an all-or-nothing gambit that has a chance of working. The reason he's not voting you is exactly that: he wanted to keep his options open to get me lynched. In case you forgot,h e's been bussing me as well, making this entire paragraph as valid for you as for me, making it invalid in general.

[post]Why was he reserving his vote on me?[/quote]

You can go ahead, put that in the present tense. This is another coaching session. Aptil won't hammer you. He will vote you if it helps in swaying people's minds that you are indeed a doctor, but he's not going to hammer you in case two other people already voted you, because then he loses the game.

he wanted a town to vote town first for a quickhammer, however grim who's his partner voted me so he went shopping for an excuse.

What excuse would that be?