NY 164: Maniacal Street Mafia (Anticlimatically finished.)

[ffullisade]

It's painfully embarrassing to have been wrong for so much of the game, but it is what it is.

My understanding of the game state was irreparably broken last night, but I came away with 2 things I still feel sure of. One of PA/Bulba is blue. And Peregine is town.

So, instead of trying to figure out which of PA/bulba/you are red, I'm left with you and AK. And if that was scum-mara that raged back at Mollie to the point where she didn't even realize she was attributing a post that was obviously mine to Mollie, I'm never going to be able to read her and I should just give up and policy-vote her from now on because what else can you do with someone that unreadable?

[ffullisade]

Stop it.

Stop reading my mind.

You basically caught CTD and convinced me you were right with a symmetry argument.

Why do you think Peregrine is not town? And why do you think I am town?

If the red/blue balance is not in numbers, what does make it balanced and where is the evidence for that?

[ffullisade]

Why do you think Peregrine is not town? And why do you think I am town?

Peregrine would be not-town if there aren't uneven scumteams simply because Mara's became strong town for the last bit and mollie has been consistently town the entire game. Then, swapping out Majiffy for you in the hydra (which was before Xenologue), your contributions when you came into the game... there's no way I could convince myself that you are scum at this point, and I don't think that mollie could last this long in a scumgame, considering this has been months and months and months; there would be one point in the game where she just killed me and was done with it.

I don't think you've given my scum-mollie model any reason to kill you.

You found CTD by putting your read aside and looking at the set up. I feel like you should be reconsidering everybody now, including us. The remaining players haven't been lynched before now because a majority (or plurality on some days) of then living players thought we were all less scummy than whoever got lynched.

If the red/blue balance is not in numbers, what does make it balanced and where is the evidence for that?

Power roles. We've seen a ninja (which is only good against the Watcher) and two goons for blue, with a tracker and a doctor for red (both of which are better than a ninja). Even if the other two reds are goons, I don't really see what exactly the last power role for blue that would make it somehow balanced. There's no cop in the game, so godfather is impossible, strongman is too strong, roleblocker is good but roleblocker+ninja have no synergy and make for a pretty shitty scumteam versus tracker+doctor... So I assume the reds look something like doctor+roleblocker+tracker and the blues look something like goon+goon+ninja+weak PR/goon.

We feel like PA has been fishing really hard for a scum roleblocker today.

There was a town rolecop.

the problem w/ this game is that nacho, thor, and nero are all scum and we have players like desp who are awesome scapegoats to the whole shenanigans

plus players like thezmon and eddiefenix are perfect sidelining scum who won't let any of the needed lynches through, and their play is making the actual unsure townies even more unsure and less willing to string up the obvious big name scum that are in this game

Cute how you try to paint me as scum when you've been tunneling to China on Nacho. I can see the other 2 (thor and Nero) being potential scum that I'll have to wrestle between to figure out WHO I exactly want to look at along with Desperado and YOU (because, I don't trust you for nothing). Now...

Vote OverSoul

After his early gambit and him trying to get somewhere with this new one, I'm really uneasy on him.

I've looked at that post over and over again trying to find a crumb.

<<< Quote tag fixed. >>>

[ffullisade]

Unvote

AK was at 2 votes for long enough for two reds to hammer them.

Unless one red vote was already on her.

One red or two.

[ffullisade]

If there are two, they might not want to risk exposing more than one today.

Haven't seen mollie today. You're stuck with me.

[ffullisade]

^^ I at least agree with that.

[ffullisade]

UNVOTE: nacho

that was me

you guys are going to hear fery out

[ffullisade]

One red or two.

Explain this.

you and nacho were the only ones voting our slot

If there are two reds, one of them would likely be on your wagon. That's why I said this morning that I felt like Nacho has to be red.

If there is one red, maybe not.

[ffullisade]

UNVOTE: nacho

I did that hours ago.

[ffullisade]

I wanted to be sure?

[ffullisade]

VOTE: nacho
VOTE: nacho
VOTE: Nacho

I know you unvoted, but what prompted you to do this?

[ffullisade]

I think bulba's a role blocker. I think PA knows it. because of her team - maybe her - getting blocked last night.

Where nacho fits in is less clear to me. But if I'm right about bulba role blocking and Nacho is right about 1 red scum, assuming we mislynch town today, then one townie will die tonight and tomorrow will be 2-1-1. And the game is unwinnable for town even if we lynch scum tomorrow.

If there are 2 reds, then it's possible that it will be a scum who dies tonight and then it will still be 2-1-1 tomorrow and unwinnable unless they shoot each other tonight. And if there is a roleblock two shots won't happen.

If we have 1 red, then Nacho probably isn't it.

I feel like we have to lynch between bulba and PA today and hope for the best.

PA's vote on bulba supports this scenario, I think.

[ffullisade]

Where did the post stop making sense?

[ffullisade]

FFery/mollie, why havn't I got the answer to who the people that are in that /ohmaigodkillmenow group when I asked for it days ago?

When I made that post, the players in that group were Pere and Nacho.

[quote[Mollie said that she thinks that there is town there, but she it doesn't look like she has reconsidered who is exactly in that group.You guys keep saying that you guys are re-evaluating your town reads, but there hasn't been any sign of that in thread until recently when I stated that we are both replacing out (which really shouldn't mean that I am town anyway)Why is it that, I don't really see any kind of revamping reads from your slot?

This game day has been nothing but revamping town reads. We've had bulba as solid town since the day Slandaar was lynched. We've had Nacho as town since before bacde was replaced. The one player that I was sure was scum in 3 scum scenario today was you. Flipping that read forced a reevaluation of Nacho.

[ffullisade]

screwed up the quote tags

FFery/mollie, why havn't I got the answer to who the people that are in that /ohmaigodkillmenow group when I asked for it days ago?

When I made that post, the players in that group were Pere and Nacho.

Mollie said that she thinks that there is town there, but she it doesn't look like she has reconsidered who is exactly in that group.You guys keep saying that you guys are re-evaluating your town reads, but there hasn't been any sign of that in thread until recently when I stated that we are both replacing out (which really shouldn't mean that I am town anyway)Why is it that, I don't really see any kind of revamping reads from your slot?

This game day has been nothing but revamping town reads. We've had bulba as solid town since the day Slandaar was lynched. We've had Nacho as town since before bacde was replaced. The one player that I was sure was scum in 3 scum scenario today was you. Flipping that read forced a reevaluation of Nacho.

<<< There was still a minor glitch, but I think I fixed it. >>>

[ffullisade]

I could understand Nacho maybe, but Pere?

I don't see how, given he has been considered essentially cleared by the majority, and most people aren't even thinking of attacking him. the only ones I can think of, is us and maybe Nacho, but even then he's hardly getting attention from anyone

I don't recall you ever flipping your read on us, you've been calling us solid scum all day except for the most recent pages where I had replaced.

I flipped my read on you when you replaced out. I stopped posting overnight to let that sink in. In post 6087 I said I'd post what we were thinking the next day. That was because I needed time to process what the read flip means in terms of other players.

6092 is where I posted the results, and in 6093 I voted Nacho.

It didn't feel right but in a 2 red 1 blue scenario that's what it has to be. I was already thinking about asymmetric scum teams, but wasn't convinced it makes sense.

Nacho came to the same conclusion about you, but his final unshakeable town read was us and not pere.

[ffullisade]

So, your /ohmaigodkillmenow

why are you even making this a thing

the only motivation that I can come up with is that you don't want us to find town

[ffullisade]

lol, that isn't defensive and you know it

why are you worried about how we are sorting things out

shouldn't you be okay with sorting things out and then working with us if you have a town read?

[ffullisade]

So, your /ohmaigodkillmenow Group was Pere because

a few people were suspecting him regardless of his claim, even though one of them was a major scum-read? also, because Nacho has a stronger town-read on you compared to Pere?

No. Mostly because of neighborhood symmetry - the same reason why even though I was town-reading CTD based on his posts, I voted him based on neighborhood symmetry.

and Nacho, for some pretty obvious reasons I think, Given he has been a top suspect all game for alot of people, myself included and has been pushed by multiple different people, and could be a decently easy mislynch if he is town

That's part of it.

[ffullisade]

also, why did it take the replacing out (which is null) for you to flip your read on us when (I think) there were other, more reliable things to draw upon for a possible town-read on this slot?

The way you replaced out wasn't null to me. It forced a rethink on other game events, and on the way you guys have interacted with us both individually and as a unit, so to speak.

[ffullisade]

And in response to someone who said I was roleblocker-fishing, ffullisade I think, um, duh? Rena and ThAd reports indicate there's a scum roleblocker. If we know who it is, we know a scum. I was kind of hoping that all the stuff I was spewing about it early in the day might net something. I don't think it did.

Who do you have as town? Who do you have as blue?

[ffullisade]

ffull, please comment on my argument with bulbazak please and thank you.

bulba is scum. He has to push this kind of thing. He may even believe it because he's not in that much better a position to find other-scum if he's on his own.

I'd rather talk about your two posts that he's making all the noise about.

Putting AK in my town pile forced me to remove someone else, and my inviolate town read is pere because of the neighborhood symmetry argument. I was reluctant about it, but if there are two red scum and AK isn't one of them then you have to be.

If there are two red scum.

What if there aren't? What if it's 4-3?

For whatever reason, you started with a different inviolate town read - me. And you went through the same process: That means pere has to be the 2nd red scum given your inviolate read.

If there are two red scum.

I saw it. I saw you go through the same goddamn thought process

Spoiler: stop reading my mind

It's painfully embarrassing to have been wrong for so much of the game, but it is what it is.

My understanding of the game state was irreparably broken last night, but I came away with 2 things I still feel sure of. One of PA/Bulba is blue. And Peregine is town.

So, instead of trying to figure out which of PA/bulba/you are red, I'm left with you and AK. And if that was scum-mara that raged back at Mollie to the point where she didn't even realize she was attributing a post that was obviously mine to Mollie, I'm never going to be able to read her and I should just give up and policy-vote her from now on because what else can you do with someone that unreadable?

I don't think Peregrine is town.

Or I think there's uneven scumteams.

in fact i really think there are uneven scumteams.

Stop it.

Stop reading my mind.

You basically caught CTD and convinced me you were right with a symmetry argument.

Why do you think Peregrine is not town? And why do you think I am town?

If the red/blue balance is not in numbers, what does make it balanced and where is the evidence for that?

I will fear your scum game forever if you divined a thought process which I didn't telegraph, and echoed it back to me like that.

[ffullisade]

You're town. If it's not a four-man red scum team with three PRs (namely with a roleblocker plus flipped PRs) then PV's clear. I'm a bit thrown by the lack of engagement from AK when it was a hydra on the topic of the NK's allegedly framing them, and I think AK-Ms Marangal's my first choice for blue scum, followed by Nacho. Nacho could be red scum, but I'm not seeing how the speculation on red scum team composition benefits him much.

This is surprisingly noncommital

[ffullisade]

I'm leaning toward uneven in number teams, but if there are four red scum to match the likely four blue scum, the only way I see to weaken that would be to put another red scum in a neighborhood where he's vulnerable to lynching/being caught out by his neighbor. Unless the last blue scum has a completely kick-ass PR, then there could be four red scum with only Seanald in the neighborhood. But I can't think of a PR that's good enough to join with Ninja to complement Doctor-Tracker-Roleblocker.

The balance problem this introduces is huge. A scum player in a neighborhood with the vig is way overpowered compared to the other neighborhoods. The scum player can learn what the vig plans and use that to counter or let them go through depending on target. AND the scum player can potentially influence the vig's targets. When that works, it basically gives the scum team a second factional kill. How well such a setup would be used by scum is dependent on the skill of that player, and could be hugely swingy from a design standpoint.

[ffullisade]

I think I want to lynch bulba today.

[ffullisade]

I'm around.

[ffullisade]

@FFluisade-

Thoughts on Bulba not being bluescum.
Thoughts on Nacho not being blue, also, if you want.

Do you think we are dealing with symmetric scum teams or 3-4?

I feel like Nacho is very unlikely to be blue scum. It made no sense for him to work at all to move the lynch off bulba and onto CTD if he were CTD's partner.

bulba as a team mate of CTD is a little more entangled than that. Will think on it.

[ffullisade]

I really can't vote with you because I think it's 3-4. It comes down to PA or Bulba for me.

[ffullisade]

Ffullisade, you are not addressing any of my posts to you. I'd like you to rectify that please.

I've intentionally not followed up on one post addressed to me. I don't recall anything else you posted to me recently.

[ffullisade]

I really can't vote with you because I think it's 3-4. It comes down to PA or Bulba for me.

Nacho has already said there are 4 red scum.

So did I, implicitly. I've concluded I was wrong.

[ffullisade]

I really can't vote with you because I think it's 3-4. It comes down to PA or Bulba for me.

Nacho has already said there are 4 red scum.

So did I, implicitly. I've concluded I was wrong.

So you are now thinking 3 red scum and 4 blue scum?

Yes I am.

Even if I'm wrong, I'll want to lynch within the players I feel more strongly are scum. Nacho's red scum if and only if there are 4 red scum IMO.

[ffullisade]

I've reversed my thinking on who is blue, but it comes down to the roleblocker argument. I don't remember PA making much noise about this as an indictment of bulba until this game day, which leads me to think she's known which team's kill was blocked that night and didn't want to draw attention to that knowledge before now.

PA - blue
bulba - red (and probably the roleblocker)

If there is a second red I think it's Nacho.

The only thing that bothers me about my theory is that PA could have played a more on-the-back-foot game today and waited to see where the winds would blow, and that might have been the optimal play unless she was convinced she'd be the lynch if she didn't take a strong early stance.

[ffullisade]

The missing Mafia2 is a roleblocker.

[ffullisade]

Oh, and the missing mafia1 is a goon.

[ffullisade]

I've reversed my thinking on who is blue, but it comes down to the roleblocker argument. I don't remember PA making much noise about this as an indictment of bulba until this game day, which leads me to think she's known which team's kill was blocked that night and didn't want to draw attention to that knowledge before now.

PA - blue
bulba - red (and probably the roleblocker)

If there is a second red I think it's Nacho.

The only thing that bothers me about my theory is that PA could have played a more on-the-back-foot game today and waited to see where the winds would blow, and that might have been the optimal play unless she was convinced she'd be the lynch if she didn't take a strong early stance.

I would probably flip the two colors, but even then, I'm not sure enough where I want to lynch them today. Penguin's game is different from the last time he was scum in this situation. Bulb's almost lynch leans more towards town than scum, but I haven't analyzed the wagons with the latest flips.

Nacho is a shoe-in for red, and that puts us at 3:1:1 going into night, giving us the best chance to win.

Four reds, including a roleblocker makes that team overpowered compared to the blue scum team. I just can't see that.

[ffullisade]

I don't remember any scum PRs flipping as X-shot.

[ffullisade]

Peregrine, this exchange is one of the main reasons why I don't believe that Nacho is red scum.

He voted Seanald before asking me this question. And asking me this question could have easily led to a resounding "yeah Seanald is scum" if he couldn't accurately predict what sort of meta takeaways I was using at the time. My takeaways are a work in progress and I doubt anybody could predict with much certainty how I would have answered that question when it was asked.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

ffery, I read this game and I don't think Seanald is scum here.
Do you agree or am I reading too much into his approach?

The vengeball game is the only game that I've played with Seanald so I don't have a town baseline. His posts in this game are different though. Not as defeatest. More aggressive. More opinionated.

By nature, it seems that vengeball is intense and posture-y in some of the same ways as popcorn mafia, which leaves scum players with a limited and dangerous repertoire (from my perspective as someone who is terrible with scum roles). I am not sure how good a vengeball-informed scum baseline will be in pointing up scum behaviors in other games.

Do you think vengeball scum play generalizes to other games?

I'm not comfortable voting him today.

[ffullisade]

Peregrine, this exchange is one of the main reasons why I don't believe that Nacho is red scum.

He voted Seanald before asking me this question. And asking me this question could have easily led to a resounding "yeah Seanald is scum" if he couldn't accurately predict what sort of meta takeaways I was using at the time. My takeaways are a work in progress and I doubt anybody could predict with much certainty how I would have answered that question when it was asked.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

ffery, I read this game and I don't think Seanald is scum here.
Do you agree or am I reading too much into his approach?

The vengeball game is the only game that I've played with Seanald so I don't have a town baseline. His posts in this game are different though. Not as defeatest. More aggressive. More opinionated.

By nature, it seems that vengeball is intense and posture-y in some of the same ways as popcorn mafia, which leaves scum players with a limited and dangerous repertoire (from my perspective as someone who is terrible with scum roles). I am not sure how good a vengeball-informed scum baseline will be in pointing up scum behaviors in other games.

Do you think vengeball scum play generalizes to other games?

I'm not comfortable voting him today.

Sorry, I don't quite understand what you mean.

He voted Seanald before you answered, and also before you answered he was voting me 4458, so I'm missing your point.

<<< Tempted as I am to just delete this post in favor of my own, I'll leave it in here and use it. >>>

One-Hundred-Sixth Votecount

:

(Thirty-Ninth Votecount of Day Three,

AKA, the "Synchronized Mod Activity" votecount.

)

Seanald - 6 (PeregrineV, ArcAngel9, ThAdmiral, Desperado, penguin_alien, Cephrir)

Nero Cain - 3 (CrashTextDummie, Kublai Khan, Bulbazak)

Bulbazak - 2 (Nero Cain, Human Destroyer)
Kublai Khan - 1 (Amethyst Kitty)
Rena - 1 (Slandaar)
Nachomamma8 - 1 (Bacde)
PeregrineV - 1 (Nachomamma8)

Not Voting - 3 (Seanald, Rena, ffullisade)

With

18

alive, it's

10

to lynch.

Day Three's deadline is Friday, July 5th, @ 2:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-07-05 14:30:00).

If deadline were to hit now,

Seanald

would be lynched.

Bulbazak is V/LA over weekends indefinitely.
The Malakittens half of the Amethyst Kitty hydra is V/LA until July 15th.
PeregrineV is V/LA until July 11th.
Human Destroyer is V/LA until Sunday, July 11th.
mastin2, the moderator, is V/LA for...a while.

Spoiler: Changes from last votecount

Nero Cain - 3 (

Nachomamma8

, CrashTextDummie,

Cephrir

, Kublai Khan,

penguin_alien

,

Bulbazak

)
Seanald - 6 (PeregrineV, ArcAngel9, ThAdmiral, Desperado,

Nachomamma8(1)

,

penguin_alien

,

Cephrir

)
Bulbazak - 2 (Nero Cain, Human Destroyer)
Kublai Khan - 1 (Amethyst Kitty)
Rena - 1 (Slandaar)
Nachomamma8 - 1 (Bacde)
PeregrineV - 1 (

Nachomamma8(2)

)

Not Voting - 3 (Seanald,

Bulbazak

, Rena, ffullisade)

Last votecount was page 178, post 4426.

Spoiler: Player Votecount History D3

CrashTextDummie: ThAdmiral->Nero Cain
Cephrir: Rena->ThAdmiral->penguin_alien->Amethyst Kitty->Seanald->Nero Cain->Seanald
Nachomamma8: ThAdmiral->Nero Cain->PeregrineV->Slandaar->Amethyst Kitty->ThAdmiral->Nero Cain->Seanald->PeregrineV
PeregrineV: Nachomamma8->Seanald
Nero Cain: Rena->Nachomamma8->Bulbazak
Bacde: Nachomamma8->Rena->Nachomamma8->Unvote->ThAdmiral->Seanald->Nachomamma8->Unvote->Nero Cain->Nachomamma8
Bulbazak: ffullisade->Bacde->Amethyst Kitty->Unvote->Nero Cain->Seanald->Unvote->Nero Cain
Desperado: ThAdmiral->Rena->ThAdmiral->Nero Cain->Amethyst Kitty->ThAdmiral->Seanald->Unvote->Amethyst Kitty->Nero Cain->Seanald
penguin_alien: ThAdmiral->Unvote->ThAdmiral->PeregrineV->Seanald->Nero Cain->Seanald
Slandaar: Amethyst Kitty->Rena->Desperado->ThAdmiral->Amethyst Kitty->PeregrineV->Seanald->Rena
Seanald: Rena->Cephrir->Amethyst Kitty->Unvote
ThAdmiral: Nachomamma8->Seanald
Rena: Bacde->Unvote
Kublai Khan: Bacde->Amethyst Kitty->Nero Cain
Amethyst Kitty: Seanald->Kublai Khan->Desperado->Kublai Khan
ffullisade: Rena->Unvote->Amethyst Kitty->Unvote->Amethyst Kitty->Nero Cain->Unvote
Human Destroyer: Rena->ThAdmiral->Bulbazak
ArcAngel9: Cephrir->Amethyst Kitty->Desperado->Seanald

Spoiler: Votecount History D3

On Mon, Jun 6/10/13 @ 02:30p,

Bacde

votes

Nachomamma8

in post 3367.
On Mon, Jun 6/10/13 @ 02:40p,

Nachomamma8

votes

ThAdmiral

in post 3375.
On Mon, Jun 6/10/13 @ 05:23p,

Nero Cain

votes

Rena

in post 3385.
On Mon, Jun 6/10/13 @ 06:01p,

Nachomamma8

votes

Nero Cain

in post 3388.
On Mon, Jun 6/10/13 @ 11:14p,

Kublai Khan

votes

Bacde

in post 3397.
On Tue, Jun 6/11/13 @ 04:18a,

Slandaar

votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 3406.
On Tue, Jun 6/11/13 @ 08:55a,

Desperado

votes

ThAdmiral

in post 3417.
On Tue, Jun 6/11/13 @ 12:32p,

Bubazak

votes

ffullisade

in post 3432.
On Tue, Jun 6/11/13 @ 03:04p,

ArcAngel9

votes

Cephrir

in post 3444.
On Tue, Jun 6/11/13 @ 06:46p,

ffullisade

votes

Rena

in post 3462.
On Tue, Jun 6/11/13 @ 09:08p,

Seanald

votes

Rena

in post 3467.
On Wed, Jun 6/12/13 @ 11:07a,

Desperado

votes

Rena

in post 3489.
On Wed, Jun 6/12/13 @ 12:41p,

Bacde

votes

Rena

in post 3522.
On Wed, Jun 6/12/13 @ 01:45p,

Slandaar

votes

Rena

in post 3528.
On Wed, Jun 6/12/13 @ 02:15p,

Bulbazak

unvotes

ffullisade

and votes

Bacde

in post 3537.
On Wed, Jun 6/12/13 @ 02:42p,

ffullisade

unvotes

Rena

in post 3543.
On Wed, Jun 6/12/13 @ 03:04p,

Bacde

unvotes

Rena

and votes

Nachomamma8

in post 3548.
On Wed, Jun 6/12/13 @ 03:48p,

Nachomamma8

votes

PeregrineV

in post 3584.
On Wed, Jun 6/12/13 @ 03:49p,

Nachomamma8

votes

Slandaar

in post 3585.
On Wed, Jun 6/12/13 @ 03:50p,

Nachomamma8

votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 3586.
On Wed, Jun 6/12/13 @ 06:07p,

Nero Cain

votes

Nachomamma8

in post 3623.
On Thu, Jun 6/13/13 @ 03:49a,

Slandaar

votes

Desperado

in post 3625.
On Thu, Jun 6/13/13 @ 10:02a,

Human Destroyer

votes

Rena

in post 3633.
On Fri, Jun 6/14/13 @ 10:06a,

Bacde

unvotes

Nachomamma8

in post 3671.
On Fri, Jun 6/14/13 @ 11:16a,

Desperado

unvotes

Rena

and votes

ThAdmiral

in post 3672.
On Fri, Jun 6/14/13 @ 11:30a,

Bacde

votes

ThAdmiral

in post 3673.
On Fri, Jun 6/14/13 @ 12:08p,

Slandaar

votes

ThAdmiral

in post 3678.
On Sat, Jun 6/15/13 @ 06:50a,

Cephrir

votes

ThAdmiral

in post 3711.
On Sat, Jun 6/15/13 @ 10:31p,

Seanald

unvotes

Rena

and votes

Cephrir

in post 3730.
On Sat, Jun 6/15/13 @ 11:17p,

Bacde

votes

Seanald

in post 3731.
On Sat, Jun 6/15/13 @ 11:59p,

Amethyst Kitty

votes

Seanald

in post 3732.
On Sun, Jun 6/16/13 @ 00:18a,

Amethyst Kitty

votes

Kublai Khan

in post 3733.
On Sun, Jun 6/16/13 @ 01:07p,

penguin_alien

votes

ThAdmiral

in post 3740.
On Sun, Jun 6/16/13 @ 03:07p,

Human Destroyer

votes

ThAdmiral

in post 3745.
On Sun, Jun 6/16/13 @ 03:18p,

Nachomamma8

votes

ThAdmiral

in post 3746.
On Sun, Jun 6/16/13 @ 05:10p,

CrashTextDummie

votes

ThAdmiral

in post 3752.
On Sun, Jun 6/16/13 @ 11:05p,

Nachomamma8

unvotes

ThAdmiral

and votes

Nero Cain

in post 3759.
On Sun, Jun 6/16/13 @ 11:28p,

Desperado

unvotes

ThAdmiral

and votes

Nero Cain

in post 3760.
On Mon, Jun 6/17/13 @ 06:02a,

Kublai Khan

votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 3769.
On Mon, Jun 6/17/13 @ 06:50a,

Slandaar

votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 3771.
On Mon, Jun 6/17/13 @ 07:28a,

Cephrir

unvotes

ThAdmiral

and votes

penguin_alien

in post 3772.
On Mon, Jun 6/17/13 @ 09:29a,

Bacde

votes

Nachomamma8

in post 3774.
On Mon, Jun 6/17/13 @ 09:53a,

Desperado

unvotes

Nero Cain

and votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 3777.
On Mon, Jun 6/17/13 @ 11:03a,

Amethyst Kitty

votes

Desperado

in post 3792.
On Mon, Jun 6/17/13 @ 01:54p,

Amethyst Kitty

votes

Kublai Khan

in post 3821.
On Mon, Jun 6/17/13 @ 01:59p,

Bulbazak

unvotes

Bacde

and votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 3822.
On Tue, Jun 6/18/13 @ 08:37a,

penguin_alien

unvotes

ThAdmiral

in post 3857.
On Tue, Jun 6/18/13 @ 11:53a,

PeregrineV

votes

Nachomamma8

in post 3869.
On Tue, Jun 6/18/13 @ 02:24p,

Cephrir

votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 3885.
On Tue, Jun 6/18/13 @ 06:39p,

ThAdmiral

votes

Nachomamma8

in post 3900.
On Wed, Jun 6/19/13 @ 11:04a,

ArcAngel9

votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 3921.
On Wed, Jun 6/19/13 @ 12:05p,

Seanald

unvotes

Cephrir

and votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 3950.
On Wed, Jun 6/19/13 @ 12:28p,

penguin_alien

votes

ThAdmiral

in post 3962.
On Wed, Jun 6/19/13 @ 12:42p,

ffullisade

unvotes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 3966.
On Wed, Jun 6/19/13 @ 12:50p,

Bulbazak

unvotes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 3967.
On Wed, Jun 6/19/13 @ 02:52p,

Bulbazak

votes

Nero Cain

in post 3977.
On Wed, Jun 6/19/13 @ 04:04p,

ffullisade

votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 3979.
On Wed, Jun 6/19/13 @ 05:24p,

CrashTextDummie

unvotes

ThAdmiral

and votes

Nero Cain

in post 3989.
On Wed, Jun 6/19/13 @ 07:29p,

Desperado

unvotes

Amethyst Kitty

and votes

ThAdmiral

in post 3991.
On Thu, Jun 6/20/13 @ 03:29a,

ArcAngel9

unvotes

Amethyst Kitty

and votes

Desperado

in post 4015.
On Thu, Jun 6/20/13 @ 04:56a,

Slandaar

votes

PeregrineV

in post 4016.
On Thu, Jun 6/20/13 @ 10:05a,

penguin_alien

unvotes

ThAdmiral

and votes

PeregrineV

in post 4017.
On Thu, Jun 6/20/13 @ 11:22p,

Desperado

unvotes

ThAdmiral

and votes

Seanald

in post 4038.
On Fri, Jun 6/21/13 @ 01:23p,

PeregrineV

votes

Seanald

in post 4056.
On Fri, Jun 6/21/13 @ 02:14p,

Seanald

unvotes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 4059.
On Mon, Jun 6/24/13 @ 03:45a,

Slandaar

votes

ThAdmiral

in post 4066.
On Mon, Jun 6/24/13 @ 08:24a,

ArcAngel9

votes

Seanald

in post 4070.
On Mon, Jun 6/24/13 @ 01:41p,

Bulbazak

unvotes

Nero Cain

and votes

Seanald

in post 4081.
On Mon, Jun 6/24/13 @ 02:02p,

Cephrir

unvotes

Amethyst Kitty

and votes

Seanald

in post 4083.
On Tue, Jun 6/25/13 @ 02:38a,

ThAdmiral

votes

Seanald

in post 4087.
On Tue, Jun 6/25/13 @ 07:02a,

Slandaar

votes

Seanald

in post 4088.
On Tue, Jun 6/25/13 @ 11:52a,

penguin_alien

unvotes

PeregrineV

and votes

Seanald

in post 4091.
On Tue, Jun 6/25/13 @ 04:08p,

Bulbazak

unvotes

Seanald

in post 4104.
On Tue, Jun 6/25/13 @ 04:20p,

Desperado

unvotes

Seanald

in post 4106.
On Wed, Jun 6/26/13 @ 04:17a,

Slandaar

votes

Rena

in post 4126.
On Wed, Jun 6/26/13 @ 10:33a,

Desperado

votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 4133.
On Wed, Jun 6/26/13 @ 02:41p,

Bade

unvotes

Nachomamma8

in post 4153.
On Wed, Jun 6/26/13 @ 04:19p,

Desperado

unvotes

Amethyst Kitty

and votes

Nero Cain

in post 4170.
On Wed, Jun 6/26/13 @ 04:27p,

Bacde

votes

Nero Cain

in post 4171.
On Wed, Jun 6/26/13 @ 04:28p,

ffullisade

votes

Nero Cain

in post 4172.
On Wed, Jun 6/26/13 @ 06:01p,

Cephrir

votes

Nero Cain

in post 4198.
On Thu, Jun 6/27/13 @ 07:17a,

Nero Cain

votes

Bulbazak

in post 4231.
On Thu, Jun 6/27/13 @ 05:13p,

Rena

unvotes

Bacde

in post 4298.
On Fri, Jun 6/28/13 @ 01:13p,

ffullisade

unvotes

Nero Cain

in post 4333.
On Fri, Jun 6/28/13 @ 02:07p,

Bacde

votes

Nachomamma8

in post 4346.
On Fri, Jun 6/28/13 @ 04:35p,

Desperado

unvotes

Nero Cain

and votes

Seanald

in post 4374.
On Sat, Jun 6/29/13 @ 09:29a,

Kublai Khan

votes

Nero Cain

in post 4398.
On Sat, Jun 6/29/13 @ 11:46a,

penguin_alien

unvotes

Seanald

and votes

Nero Cain

in post 4402.
On Sun, Jun 6/30/13 @ 12:16p,

Human Destroyer

unvotes

ThAdmiral

and votes

Bulbazak

in post 4409.
On Mon, Jul 6/01/13 @ 00:13a,

Bulbazak

votes

Nero Cain

in post 4442.
On Mon, Jul 6/01/13 @ 09:14a,

Nachomamma8

unvotes

Nero Cain

and votes

Seanald

in post 4451.
On Mon, Jul 6/01/13 @ 09:59a,

Nachomamma8

votes

PeregrineV

in post 4458.
On Mon, Jul 6/01/13 @ 10:05a,

penguin_alien

votes

Seanald

in post 4461.
On Mon, Jul 6/01/13 @ 10:19a,

Cephrir

unvotes

Nero Cain

and votes

Seanald

in post 4464.

Yeah, I said that he voted before he asked me that question. And that looks like he was metadiving Seanald on his own and ran into a Seanald scum game where I played against him and wanted to compare notes.

I think a scum trajectory would be different, and probably wouldn't involve a vote at all.

me

[ffullisade]

Ffullisade, you are not addressing any of my posts to you. I'd like you to rectify that please.

I've intentionally not followed up on one post addressed to me. I don't recall anything else you posted to me recently.

Which post are you intentionally not following up? The ones I'd like you to answer or address are these:

I think bulba's a role blocker. I think PA knows it. because of her team - maybe her - getting blocked last night.

Where nacho fits in is less clear to me. But if I'm right about bulba role blocking and Nacho is right about 1 red scum, assuming we mislynch town today, then one townie will die tonight and tomorrow will be 2-1-1. And the game is unwinnable for town even if we lynch scum tomorrow.

If there are 2 reds, then it's possible that it will be a scum who dies tonight and then it will still be 2-1-1 tomorrow and unwinnable unless they shoot each other tonight. And if there is a roleblock two shots won't happen.

If we have 1 red, then Nacho probably isn't it.

I feel like we have to lynch between bulba and PA today and hope for the best.

PA's vote on bulba supports this scenario, I think.

Um...what? I think I got lost somewhere in the middle. Can you break this down for me in simpler terms?

Where did the post stop making sense?

I think I got lost somewhere around the second paragraph. Can you rephrase your post?

That's what I decided not to follow up. It's obsolete based on what I think is an improved understanding of how the game could be balanced. I see nothing but walls ahead and I'm not interested in helping produce another huge ball of tangled semantic yarn.

Did you ever follow up on this:

I'll post what we're thinking tomorrow.

Did I? Seriously?

My next post was a complete shake-up of my stance on the game state, and everything I've posted since then has been informed by that shake up.

I remember waiting for your post and nothing coming. Was it just a simple "X is red and Y is blue", because I was expecting something bigger? Regardless, we're getting close to deadline and we really need to get this right and lynch red today, so I'd like to know your thoughts. You know mine.

I'm speechless.

[ffullisade]

UNVOTE: Bulbazak

For now. I'll be around in the morning, but I'm wavering a bit here. It is true that even if Seanald wouldn't have been that day's lynch without Nacho turning the wagon, but as a claimed neighbor his days were likely numbered.

Bulbazak and PV, if Nacho is red scum, what's his motive for floating a theory and apparently standing behind it that red scum is a three-man team and so is down to one member? He's not using it as an excuse to hunt blue scum instead of red from what I can tell.

When it starts coming down to math, you want town to miscalculate.

But, if Nacho is not redscum, then who is?

One of the things I never shook was this set of exchanges, especially after Ceph flipped redscum.

Since LOL Mafia just finished, and it featured a scumteam of Cephrir and Nachomamma, I would like to hear a detailed analysis by each of them on the other person, especially comparing their play here to their scum play in LoL.

Since LOL Mafia just finished, and it featured a scumteam of Cephrir and Nachomamma, I would like to hear a detailed analysis by each of them on the other person, especially comparing their play here to their scum play in LoL.

I can probably do that at some point. Honestly, I've thought this whole game that part of the reason Nacho's townreading me when most people aren't is because I'm playing totally differently (and worse) from that game.

I can probably do that at some point. Honestly, I've thought this whole game that part of the reason Nacho's townreading me when most people aren't is because I'm playing totally differently (and worse) from that game.

Yup. Your read changes in particular that game were opportunistic as hell, whereas here you end up waffling, you express being unsure a LOT more in thread, everything feels more natural here. But if PV wants to hear a "detailed analysis", then he's going to have to actually put some effort into the game.

Vote: Nacho

Why are you totally ignoring my request?

Vote: Nacho

Why are you totally ignoring my request?

I didn't. I'm not necessarily completely complying with it, but I didn't ignore it.

I didn't. I'm not necessarily completely complying with it, but I didn't ignore it.

Based on 3746, you think Cephrir is town?

Yup. Your read changes in particular that game were opportunistic as hell, whereas here you end up waffling, you express being unsure a LOT more in thread, everything feels more natural here. But if PV wants to hear a "detailed analysis", then he's going to have to actually put some effort into the game.

Because I was looking for something a little more comprehensive, like

tl;dr When Arc is town, she OMGUSes hard because she's used to scum attacking her for so long. She will also pick out people who have been easy targets, people who she feels like she can defend, and she will defend them from a position of authority (since she knows certain people will read her as town and she can hammer the hell out of them if they attack her). She's lighter as town because it's what she excels at, hence the occasional teasing with the people she interacts with. Her stronger, more aggressive posts are the ones she makes from that position of authority; she doesn't have it as scum and that's her strongest meta point.

Because I was looking for something a little more comprehensive, like

I'm not that familiar with Cephrir's meta.

Find me something stronger that says REDSCUM and we'll talk about moving my vote.

Nacho?

[ffullisade]

oh fucking hell nevermind

What was this about?

Nacho?

this was the first game where i actually had to read cephrir, and didn't have a good baseline of his play until later

You don't construct baselines from what you learn about players when you're scum?

[ffullisade]

You don't construct baselines from what you learn about players when you're scum?

Not nearly as effectively. Especially in a game where I'm letting town wreck themselves and have no real need to care about what's going on.

I don't have nearly as much practice constructing baselines from games where I was scum due to being a statistical anomaly. But, I find knowing the player's alignment while I'm seeing their interactions is revealing in ways that cold meta never seems to match.

[ffullisade]

Penguin, explain your switch.

[ffullisade]

Vote bulba

It's going to take more than Penguin's gut to make sense of such a late switch on such flimsy reasoning.

[ffullisade]

So your reason for voting me is because Penguin-scum unvoted me, even though she has just as much of a reason to find and vote red scum as we do? Yeah, that makes perfect sense.

If she's blue she has as much reason, yes. Reason and accuracy don't necessarily correlate.

I still think you are red scum. I still think she is blue.

[ffullisade]

I hope you are right Peregrine.

I believe you are wrong.

And no, it's way too late for cases. This is a tone thing now. And your tone, bulba, has a note of triumph to it. If you were town, it wouldn't be there.

[ffullisade]

...because ffullisade has been so effective at getting you lynched. And I do think you could be blue.

I think my dead hand got him lynched in the Buzzword Bingo game.

I'd have to be trying to get him lynched in order for you to gauge his effectiveness.

[ffullisade]

Ffullisade, vote Nacho or else the game is over.

Penguin, vote Nacho and then you have the opportunity to kill the other red.

How do you know the game is over if you are lynched?

[ffullisade]

hi guys

[ffullisade]

Peregrine tell me that you're not going to make another hideous quotewall case on nacho, this time proving indisputably why he's blue scum.

Please tell me you're not going to do that.

[ffullisade]

Nacho, talk to me about PA's vote switch to you and then back to bulba near nightfall.


What was she thinking?

[ffullisade]

...or you can ask me?

I have a reason for wanting Nacho to speculate.

[ffullisade]

Hmmm, nice predicament here.

Reminds me of Cold war mafia

.

And this is a Saturday post, meaning this may be it until Monday.

How so?

[ffullisade]

Why Mara?

Who benefits from her not being in the game today?

Thoughts about no lynch?

[ffullisade]

Why would she have risked losing the bulba lynch?

[ffullisade]

Would also like your thoughts on my questions in 6354.

[ffullisade]

Why do you think you are here at MYLO?

[ffullisade]

I wasn't shot by red because I had Bulbazak as a strong townread. I wasn't shot by blue because I had penguin/CTD as strong townreads.

I feel like Pere is here because either he's expected to mislynch or he's scum.

Peng is here because she's expected to be myslynched or she's scum.

I'm here because fill-in-the-blank. I think it's because I'm more likely to mislynch than Mara.

Why are you here?

[ffullisade]

We are all last men standing today. Unless we nolynch. The survivalist arguments are p much shit at this point.

gah.

[ffullisade]

Mollie and I have been talking about this game off and on since before daybreak. We know how we want to vote. I'm holding off until everyone has had a chance to put their thoughts into the thread.

[ffullisade]

At this point, I can't think of any role for blue scum that would balance red having three decent PRs with a fourth member. Maybe a JOAT with major powers, but it doesn't seem likely. If you think that's possible, we need to no-lynch. Otherwise I think it was a single kill. The Desperado shot on the other hand could be overlapping kills, as both teams would have motive to eliminate him, I suppose.

Or Bulba blocked the Blue kill. Given the resurgence of your interest in the roleblocker theory, I've kinda thought that's what happened.

That's quite a hole in your speculation.

[ffullisade]

Hmmm, nice predicament here.

Reminds me of Cold war mafia

.

And this is a Saturday post, meaning this may be it until Monday.

How so?

Two things going on there.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p3085757

One was that both teams killed ThAdmiral on night6. There was only two kills due to the vig.

The other was that the final Soviet mafia was BP, meaning scum couldn't kill him anyway.

My first question to everyone, do we think Marangal was a double kill, or a single kill?

And I haven't read yet, so if anyone's already stated it then TIA.

I'm still of the opinion that the teams were 4 blue 3 red.

[ffullisade]

At this point, I can't think of any role for blue scum that would balance red having three decent PRs with a fourth member. Maybe a JOAT with major powers, but it doesn't seem likely. If you think that's possible, we need to no-lynch. Otherwise I think it was a single kill. The Desperado shot on the other hand could be overlapping kills, as both teams would have motive to eliminate him, I suppose.

Or Bulba blocked the Blue kill. Given the resurgence of your interest in the roleblocker theory, I've kinda thought that's what happened.

That's quite a hole in your speculation.

I've considered whether Bulbazak blocked the blue scum quite a bit in this thread and concluded that if he blocked me it would have been Night Five with no missing kills, not Night Six. I'm not ignoring the possibility of the blue scum kill being blocked on Night Six; I was addressing PV's speculation that the scum may have overlapped on kills at some point.

I'd been talking about the vig/watcher/scum doc/failed Bulba kill kerfuffle ad nauseum. No one was paying it any attention before yesterday.

I actually meant last night.

I asked you how 3 red PRs and a goon would balance 2 blue PRs and 2 goons. You handwaved stuff about x-shots. What are you positing for the actual alignment now that we know for a fact that the red scum team had a roleblocker?

[ffullisade]

actual balance, not alignment.

[ffullisade]

Blue: Ninja-Goon-Goon
Red: Tracker-RB- Doc

Blue has a PR, Red has a Goon.

You consider that balanced?

[ffullisade]

I am still thinking one scum left. Blue scum.

:/

[ffullisade]

I still think that Mara not getting hammered day 7 was indicative of singleton scum from both teams.

[ffullisade]

Nacho and Mollie/me.

Here are the relevant vote counts.

One-Hundred-Sixty-Third Votecount

:

(First Votecount of Day Seven,

AKA, the "Not exactly much to list" votecount.

)

Amethyst Kitty - 1 (ffullisade)

Not Voting - 5 (Nachomamma8, PeregrineV, Bulbazak, penguin_alien, Amethyst Kitty)

With

6

alive, it's

4

to lynch.

Day Seven's deadline is Monday, September 30th, @ 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-09-30 12:30:00).

Spoiler: Player Vote History D7

Nachomamma8:
PeregrineV:
Bulbazak:
penguin_alien:
Amethyst Kitty:
ffullisade: Amethyst Kitty

Spoiler: Vote History D7

On Mon, Sep 9/09/13 @ 10:43p,

ffullisade

Votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 5996.

One-Hundred-Sixty-Fourth Votecount

:

(Second Votecount of Day Seven,

AKA, the "Decent pace!" votecount.

)

Amethyst Kitty - 1 (Nachomamma8)

Not Voting - 5 (PeregrineV, Bulbazak, penguin_alien, Amethyst Kitty, ffullisade)

With

6

alive, it's

4

to lynch.

Day Seven's deadline is Monday, September 30th, @ 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-09-30 12:30:00).

Spoiler: Changes from last votecount

Amethyst Kitty - 1 (

ffullisade

,

Nachomamma8

)

Not Voting - 5 (

Nachomamma8

, PeregrineV, Bulbazak, penguin_alien, Amethyst Kitty,

ffullisade

)

Last votecount was page 241, post 6000.

Spoiler: Player Vote History D7

Nachomamma8: Amethyst Kitty
PeregrineV:
Bulbazak:
penguin_alien:
Amethyst Kitty:
ffullisade: Amethyst Kitty->Unvote

Spoiler: Vote History D7

On Mon, Sep 9/09/13 @ 10:43p,

ffullisade

Votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 5996.
On Wed, Sep 9/11/13 @ 00:24a,

ffullisade

Unvotes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 6005.
On Wed, Sep 9/11/13 @ 03:27p,

Nachomamma8

votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 6025.

Sent out pokes/prods to the half the game inactive.

One-Hundred-Sixty-Fifth Votecount

:

(Third Votecount of Day Seven,

AKA, the "Important-change-in-VC" votecount.

)

Amethyst Kitty - 2 (Nachomamma8, ffullisade)

Not Voting - 4 (PeregrineV, Bulbazak, penguin_alien, Amethyst Kitty)

With

6

alive, it's

4

to lynch.

Day Seven's deadline is Monday, September 30th, @ 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-09-30 12:30:00).

Spoiler: Changes from last votecount

Amethyst Kitty - 2 (Nachomamma8,

ffullisade

)

Not Voting - 4 (PeregrineV, Bulbazak, penguin_alien, Amethyst Kitty,

ffullisade

)

Last votecount was page 242, post 6031.

Spoiler: Player Vote History D7

Nachomamma8: Amethyst Kitty
PeregrineV:
Bulbazak:
penguin_alien:
Amethyst Kitty:
ffullisade: Amethyst Kitty->Unvote->Amethyst Kitty

Spoiler: Vote History D7

On Mon, Sep 9/09/13 @ 10:43p,

ffullisade

Votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 5996.
On Wed, Sep 9/11/13 @ 00:24a,

ffullisade

Unvotes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 6005.
On Wed, Sep 9/11/13 @ 03:27p,

Nachomamma8

votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 6025.
On Mon, Sep 9/16/13 @ 02:24p,

ffullisade

Votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 6042.

One-Hundred-Sixty-Sixth Votecount

:

(Fourth Votecount of Day Seven,

AKA, the "Not copy-pasted from the last, but might as well be" votecount.

)

Amethyst Kitty - 2 (Nachomamma8, ffullisade)

Not Voting - 4 (PeregrineV, Bulbazak, penguin_alien, Amethyst Kitty)

With

6

alive, it's

4

to lynch.

Day Seven's deadline is Monday, September 30th, @ 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-09-30 12:30:00).

Spoiler: Changes from last votecount

Amethyst Kitty - 2 (Nachomamma8, ffullisade)

Not Voting - 4 (PeregrineV, Bulbazak, penguin_alien, Amethyst Kitty)

Last votecount was page 242, post 6043.

Spoiler: Player Vote History D7

Nachomamma8: Amethyst Kitty
PeregrineV:
Bulbazak:
penguin_alien:
Amethyst Kitty:
ffullisade: Amethyst Kitty->Unvote->Amethyst Kitty

Spoiler: Vote History D7

On Mon, Sep 9/09/13 @ 10:43p,

ffullisade

Votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 5996.
On Wed, Sep 9/11/13 @ 00:24a,

ffullisade

Unvotes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 6005.
On Wed, Sep 9/11/13 @ 03:27p,

Nachomamma8

votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 6025.
On Mon, Sep 9/16/13 @ 02:24p,

ffullisade

Votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 6042.

One-Hundred-Sixty-Seventh Votecount

:

(Fifth Votecount of Day Seven,

AKA, the "Wha? New page? o_O /isimpressed" votecount.

)

Amethyst Kitty - 1 (Nachomamma8)

Not Voting - 5 (PeregrineV, Bulbazak, penguin_alien, Amethyst Kitty, ffullisade)

With

6

alive, it's

4

to lynch.

Day Seven's deadline is Monday, September 30th, @ 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-09-30 12:30:00).

Spoiler: Changes from last votecount

Amethyst Kitty - 1 (Nachomamma8,

ffullisade

)

Not Voting - 5 (PeregrineV, Bulbazak, penguin_alien, Amethyst Kitty,

ffullisade

)

Last votecount was page 243, post 6054.

Spoiler: Player Vote History D7

Nachomamma8: Amethyst Kitty
PeregrineV:
Bulbazak:
penguin_alien:
Amethyst Kitty:
ffullisade: Amethyst Kitty->Unvote->Amethyst Kitty->Unvote

Spoiler: Vote History D7

On Mon, Sep 9/09/13 @ 10:43p,

ffullisade

Votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 5996.
On Wed, Sep 9/11/13 @ 00:24a,

ffullisade

Unvotes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 6005.
On Wed, Sep 9/11/13 @ 03:27p,

Nachomamma8

votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 6025.
On Mon, Sep 9/16/13 @ 02:24p,

ffullisade

Votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 6042.
On Tue, Sep 9/17/13 @ 00:18a,

ffullisade

unvotes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 6068.

One-Hundred-Sixty-Eighth Votecount

:

(Sixth Votecount of Day Seven,

AKA, the "Replacement really, really needed" votecount.

)

penguin_alien - 1 (Nachomamma8)

Nachomamma8 - 1 (ffullisade)

Not Voting - 4 (PeregrineV, Bulbazak, penguin_alien, Amethyst Kitty)

With

6

alive, it's

4

to lynch.

Day Seven's deadline is Monday, September 30th, @ 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-09-30 12:30:00).

Spoiler: Changes from last votecount

Amethyst Kitty - 0 (

Nachomamma8

)
penguin_alien - 1 (

Nachomamma8

)
Nachomamma8 - 1 (

ffullisade

)

Not Voting - 4 (PeregrineV, Bulbazak, penguin_alien, Amethyst Kitty,

ffullisade

)

Last votecount was page 244, post 6080.

Spoiler: Player Vote History D7

Nachomamma8: Amethyst Kitty->penguin_alien
PeregrineV:
Bulbazak:
penguin_alien:
Amethyst Kitty:
ffullisade: Amethyst Kitty->Unvote->Amethyst Kitty->Unvote->Nachomamma8

Spoiler: Vote History D7

On Mon, Sep 9/09/13 @ 10:43p,

ffullisade

Votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 5996.
On Wed, Sep 9/11/13 @ 00:24a,

ffullisade

Unvotes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 6005.
On Wed, Sep 9/11/13 @ 03:27p,

Nachomamma8

votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 6025.
On Mon, Sep 9/16/13 @ 02:24p,

ffullisade

Votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 6042.
On Tue, Sep 9/17/13 @ 00:18a,

ffullisade

unvotes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 6068.
On Wed, Sep 9/18/13 @ 02:22a,

Nachomamma8

votes

penguin_alien

in post 6091.
On Wed, Sep 9/18/13 @ 10:11a,

ffullisade

votes

Nachomamma8

in post 6093.

[/spoiler]

[ffullisade]

How does it eliminate PV-Bulbazak as partners?

I don't think they are, but I don't see how this eliminates the possibility.

[ffullisade]

Then who is the blue scum, in your opinion?

PA.

[ffullisade]

A good chunk of my day 7 posts were the process of working through who the final red and blue scum are. We lynched bulba. He was red roleblocker. PA was my choice for blue. Still is.

[ffullisade]

I'm here. Awaiting Peregrine's answer to your 6400.

[ffullisade]

PV, I'm in the 1 blue scum left camp, not the 2:1:1, for balance reasons and if there was a red scum left it would have been in his best interest to make an NK, and the odds of him picking the same NK are about 3/16, not factoring in that I'd expect such scum to overlap on you or ffullisade before overlapping on MM. Where are you currently on that? Who do you think is scum?

Call me old school, but 4-4 symmetry is more elegant that 4-3 but we'l make one with 3 PR and the other with 2 PRs and 2 goons.

But, if you can point to other Mastin modded games where his setup was similar, I'll listen more.

Still liking Nacho for red scum. Not sure on the blue because what I really need is just pure hours to dig through vote counts and posts, but that's time I don't have a ton of right now. Not thinking Nacho is blue, but not putting a hard bus past him, but then I have to start looking all over for red.

As for last night, it could have been a no-kill (easier to make us thing red is gone) or double kill (maybe red and blue DON'T know who the other is), or red hit BP on the blue (as in Cold War Mafia where Fonz lived and won for exactly that reason (and maybe Jal too in Street Racers).

If you are correct, what is town's best course of action today?

[ffullisade]

I really want to see some thoughts Peregrine about town strategy in 2v1v1 and 3v1 sbecause he's the only one who is convinced we're 2v1v1.

So, this is a poke response, but not a lot of content.

PA is making a huge deal out of the unlikelihood of her being blue scum given her stances earlier in the game but those same arguments apply to Nacho, and probably more so in his case.

Peregrine apparently still thinks his red-scum-Nacho case has legs.

I feel a serious case of the stubborns coming on. This game is probably going to come down to whether Peregrine and I can see eye to eye. And if the neighborhood symmetry argument is invalid, then town is p much fucked because the one player who has unassailable towncred IMO right now is him and it's mostly based on neighborhood symmetry.

[ffullisade]

PV, I'm in the 1 blue scum left camp, not the 2:1:1, for balance reasons and if there was a red scum left it would have been in his best interest to make an NK, and the odds of him picking the same NK are about 3/16, not factoring in that I'd expect such scum to overlap on you or ffullisade before overlapping on MM. Where are you currently on that? Who do you think is scum?

Call me old school, but 4-4 symmetry is more elegant that 4-3 but we'l make one with 3 PR and the other with 2 PRs and 2 goons.

But, if you can point to other Mastin modded games where his setup was similar, I'll listen more.

Still liking Nacho for red scum. Not sure on the blue because what I really need is just pure hours to dig through vote counts and posts, but that's time I don't have a ton of right now. Not thinking Nacho is blue, but not putting a hard bus past him, but then I have to start looking all over for red.

As for last night, it could have been a no-kill (easier to make us thing red is gone) or double kill (maybe red and blue DON'T know who the other is), or red hit BP on the blue (as in Cold War Mafia where Fonz lived and won for exactly that reason (and maybe Jal too in Street Racers).

If you are correct, what is town's best course of action today?

With 2 town and 2 scum? We come back to the same issue as before, except that lynching one color wins it for the other color. No lynch may be the only way town wins, but it annoys the crap out of me to count on scum to win it for town.

If one shoots town and the other shoots scum, then one wins.
If both shoot town, then they are 1:1 and I don't know if they both win, they both lose, or they tie. We lose if we are all dead.

Have we already lost?

If you are right, then the game's outcome is out of town's hands and almost certainly won't be a town win.

I don't want to think about the game from that perspective, even if it's the correct perspective, because there's no point in putting effort into today. Just vote nolynch and let the scum factions make their kill choices.

But, my belief that the scum factions are 3-4 isn't really based on head-in-sand. It's based on my reads. If we nolynch then either you or I are dead tonight, depending on which of us is perceived as 1) the most confirmed town and 2) the most likely to vote town tomorrow. Unless you're scum, in which case gg and my miscalculation about neighborhood parity will have been my worst mistake of the game.

[ffullisade]

I don't take "if it's MYLO, PUNT" as written on stone tablets. A lot of factors come into play. In cases where there is one or more confirmed town or near-universal town reads, the final kill is going to remove that near-certainty, and the people left will be optimized for mislynch.

The (imo remote) possibility that this is XYLO does inject some what-if, though.

If the clock runs down and we reach no lynch that way, so be it. I'm not going to put the day to an end.

But, I am going to put my vote to use.

VOTE: penguin_alien

[ffullisade]

I don't take "if it's MYLO, PUNT" as written on stone tablets. A lot of factors come into play. In cases where there is one or more confirmed town or near-universal town reads, the final kill is going to remove that near-certainty, and the people left will be optimized for mislynch.

The (imo remote) possibility that this is XYLO does inject some what-if, though.

If the clock runs down and we reach no lynch that way, so be it. I'm not going to put the day to an end.

But, I am going to put my vote to use.

VOTE: penguin_alien

See the math I presented to Nacho above. Agree/disagree?

There is more to mafia than math.

I've seen games that were potentially winnable by town at mylo become pretty much certain losses at lylo.

And I feel like this is such a game. Do you know why?

[ffullisade]

Because I think you'll be alive tomorrow and I think you'll vote for town.

And that of course comes down to thinking that I am right about Nacho being town and that you are wrong about him being red scum.

[ffullisade]

Well, according to you, Penguin (the last scum) is going to kill off both you and Ffullisade (because you both suspect him).

penguin is going to kill ffullisade.

...way to set it up for you to NK ffullisade and turn it into proof that I must be scum. I'm pretty sure this is classic WIFOM fodder.

yeah that makes so much more sense than leaving one very convinced vote-for-not-nacho in the game, doesn't it?

[ffullisade]

That logic is so fucking pathetically scummy wifom I can't quite believe I read it.

Scum Nacho leaving alive two players who will almost certainly vote him tomorrow, and kill the one player who is least likely to vote him. That's surely a winning scum strategy.

[ffullisade]

Confirmation bias FTW!

lol.

Nah.

[ffullisade]

Is there some reason why you're asking about the blindingly obvious?

[ffullisade]

Is there some reason why you're asking about the blindingly obvious?

Yes, because in 6644, you are intimating that Nacho would be dumb to kill you, while calling penguin scummy for suggesting it.

So if Nacho is not dumb-scum, but is scum, then who would he kill?

No, it is blindingly obvious. Scum-Nacho would kill you, and take PA and me to LYLO. And I would angst about it for two weeks, but reread stuff, including the posts leading up to BabySpice' replace-out, and say, yeah no that was not a town-pirouette and she didn't stick the flounce.

You have not budged on your nacho-is-red-scum case and you're holding on to the idea that there's 2 scum in the game.

So, tomorrow, if you are alive and you are correct and I am dead and flipped town, you have two choices:

- You're in LYLO with town and blue scum
- You're kingmaker and you decide which of blue or red scum win

When that sinks in, then please assume town can win. And drop your red scum case. And don't vote Nacho.

Or, join me today and let's end this 5+ month long game.

[ffullisade]

Is there some reason why you're asking about the blindingly obvious?

Yes, because in 6644, you are intimating that Nacho would be dumb to kill you, while calling penguin scummy for suggesting it.

So if Nacho is not dumb-scum, but is scum, then who would he kill?

No, it is blindingly obvious. Scum-Nacho would kill you, and take PA and me to LYLO. And I would angst about it for two weeks, but reread stuff, including the posts leading up to BabySpice' replace-out, and say, yeah no that was not a town-pirouette and she didn't stick the flounce.

You have not budged on your nacho-is-red-scum case and you're holding on to the idea that there's 2 scum in the game.

So, tomorrow, if you are alive and you are correct and I am dead and flipped town, you have two choices:

- You're in LYLO with town and blue scum
- You're kingmaker and you decide which of blue or red scum win

When that sinks in, then please assume town can win. And drop your red scum case. And don't vote Nacho.

Or, join me today and let's end this 5+ month long game.

If I'm in Lylo with town and blue scum, I have a 50% chance (or better even, if I make an educated guess) of hitting scum. Today that would only by 33%, randomly.
Correct?

If I'm kingmaker because scum decides that's there best chance of winning, then I'll listen to both sides arguments and I guess vote the team I hate the least.

Why not do that instead?

You know, if scum were to kill Nacho then I'd be super confused tomorrow....

You probably won't get any indication that you're in a kingmaker situation, and it will be purely your own assumptions about the game state.

Which is why I say assume it's still winnable and work from there. And good luck, I guess.

[ffullisade]

Words trickle like rain
While stances remain stagnant
Explosions tonight

[ffullisade]

It's a potent brew,
tincture of relief and rage
that greets fall of night

[ffullisade]

Like a brook sundered
split by rocks, yet again whole
time flows past my choice

[ffullisade]

crystalline moments
slide away beyond recall
a long sleep awaits

[ffullisade]

shades gather quietly
the veil thins, the dark gathers
we await the denouement

[ffullisade]

final thought whispers
neighborhood symmetry true
if two teams balanced?