Animal Crossing Mafia: Game over

[Kison]

Vote: IH

for being so generous.

[Kison]

BULLETIN BOARD

From Day 1

"IH is scum! - The PO"

Should we take this with a grain of salt or consider it? Since anyone can post this it's a risk.

SOME

roles and items allow a person to post messages on this board.

Also, I don't think we should listen to this message, seeing as whoever posted it didn't provide any evidence. Why listen to an anonymous message written on a bulletin board over the people posting here?

[Kison]

I've Got My Eye On You.

[Kison]

I'm going to have to agree with not handing the bells out. Chances are that there are fewer mafia than townies(duh). In that case, there are more of us who have the ability to buy potentially useful items. However, we'd just be risking giving that money to the wrong person if that's what we decided to do.

Vote: No Distribution

[Kison]

Except giving someone bells is not the same thing as not lynching. In no lynching we miss an opportunity to lynch a mafia. With not giving anyone bells, we delay the possibility of possibly getting a possibly useful item. Not a huge loss.

The thing is, it's likely that we will give the bells to a pro-town player because pro-town players make up the majority. People seem to be voting No Distribution because they're scared of scum getting the money, which is stupid. In bells, we've been given an opportunity to hurt the mafia. We shouldn't be throwing that away.

While I agree that it's more likely that we would be giving the bells to a pro-town player, even without handing off the bells, we'd all as a group make more than the mafia.

Therefore, why not just skip one day and get an idea as to who is who before we take the chance? There's always tomorrow...

[Kison]

Who might you suggest?

[Kison]

Aye. Lowell, your "plan" is good in theory, except for the fact that any scum can claim cop. I'm surprised you didn't mention having the cop confirm first, because a claim is quite weak, as you've no idea if they're lying.

FoS: Lowell

[Kison]

I don't know that I'm so quick to believe that claim, really. That could easily be a scum trying to fake cop, don't you agree? There's no guaranteed way to confirm it, and the way he claimed was pretty sketchy.

I'd like to hold off on voting for Lowell for the moment.

[Kison]

I'm not one quick to believe that claim, let's hear who you investigated to clarify your claim.

Bad move. If he exposes his innocent, then that would be a definite target for scum during the evening. Why? Because they'd know that we knew that the person was innocent. Therefore it'd be in their benefit to kill that person off as it would get rid of a vote the next day, and because that person would never get lynched by the townies.

FoS OverTheUnder

Lowell, even if your claim is not out of desperation, there are other circumstances to consider here. One, we have the bells, which would give logical reason for scum to claim on Day 1. If you were scum, you could fake-play cop because you know who is innocent and who is not anyways. Therefore you cause extreme damage to us by leeching all the distributed bells because you'd be the one person who we "trusted".

The other

problem

with your claim is that we don't

know

if there's a doc out there, and we don't know if the doc buys your claim, either. But I guess that's irrelevant now that the claim has already been made.

Anyways, StallingChamp does raise a good point. There has yet to be a counter-claim. So let's toss the dice...

Unvote

Vote: Lowell

[Kison]

Well I'm going to have to go with...

Vote : Toaster Strudel

as one of the people currently trying to lynch our cop...

[Kison]

My vote for IH was a random starting vote.

[Kison]

hey Lowell, since you are claiming cop, what were your results last night?

Why do you want to know his claim? We have already established why we have to trust Lowell today. We've also established why digging up his claim is a bad idea. The fact that you want to know who it is is incredibly scummy.

FoS: IH

[Kison]

Kison, yes I agree that we should trust him, I would still also like to know who he looked at. Just so we can see if he found scum, or town.

I investigated someone last night and got an INNOCENT result. I won't reveal that person's name, obviously

FoS: ac1983fan

FoS:~N9V~

For either NOT paying attention, or trying to sneakily get the name when we already have the result. If we are trusting him as cop, we don't want him revealing any names unless it was a scum-find.

[Kison]

He can do that only if we are getting ready to lynch the wrong person. If he sees that we're not going to lynch the person he investigated last night, then he has no reason to identify that person.

[Kison]

IH - Lowell's investigation result WILL NOT help legitimize his claim. If he is scum, he KNOWS who the townies are. Therefore, he will out a townie regardless of his alignment.

[Kison]

WHY would a cop counterclaim at this point?

1) To stop the flow of bells to the fake cop
2) To avoid later questioning of why he didn't refute Lowell's claim at an earlier time.
3) To stop Lowell from falsely leading us. If Lowell is cop, he could just claim he hit an innocent every night.

and it may help to validate/disprove Lowells claim down the road.

How?

[Kison]

All the more reason if Lowell is lying, as we won't be fooled by his false innocent. Unless, of course, we decide to lynch Lowell's innocent in order to prove the validity of Lowell's claim.

I thought I made it clear the first time I said this. Lynching his innocent will not confirm anything. If he's scum, he knows who the townies are and therefore would just pick any random townie and call it his investigation. If he's a cop, he will obviously give us a legit townie name, also. So by lynching whoever Lowell gives us, they'll still turn up town.

As for not letting us be distracted, well, that's the risk we have to take. If we approach a lynch on his confirmed innocent, he will THEN come out and tell us. Chances are, however, that it will not happen for some time.

[Kison]

1.yeah, but bells shouldn't even be given to a cop? How's he going to use the items AND his night action?

Show me where the rules specify that he cannot use his investigating powers while using an item.

Also, he is the only reliable candidate for the bells. He has investigated an innocent, and can will his bells to said person.

2.That's an easy one. If Lowell investigates and reveals innocents, the cop comes out and refutes those innocents.

If Lowell was scum and a smart scum, he'd not call a scum innocent unless there was a really good reason to. He'd "investigate" players who he KNOWS are innocent and just never "investigate" a scum by "chance".

3.We clearly won't trust him if we don't call him town.

And we clearly don't know if he's not town or not. We have to assume. Else we risk losing our best chance at finding the scum.

Vote : IH

as i side note, i'm suprised noone has discovered what my role is yet... i think i hinted at it pretty obviously...

My response to this is pretty much the same as CDB's...

its not like my role is anything special....

Regardless,

you have confirmed that you have a roll and you are now higher priority than any normal townie

.

[Kison]

If you didn't notice, Yamahako most definitely twisted what I was saying into something else, and waited until everyone else looked at it.

Well, he did mis-word it. You're not advocating a lynch, you're advocating getting an innocent night-killed.

[Kison]

Here's an unofficial vote count.

Lowell(1) : ubertimmy
Kison(1) : IH
ubertimmy(1) : ~N9V~
IH(5) : PBuG, Kison, Yamahako, Rand Althor, StallingChamp
ac1983fan(3) : Toaster Strudel, OverTheUnder, ChannelDelibird
Twito(1) : Lowell

Not voting( 8 ): mole, Cheesefan, Twito, Jules, Wizardcat, Fircoal, ac1983fan, Cloud

Requesting prods for: Mole, Cheesefan, Fircoal

[Kison]

Lowell didn't claim because he thought there was no cop out there to counter claim. He claimed only after everyone jumped down his throat for suggesting the notion. He wanted to make sure the bells went somewhere safe. Stupid? Sure.

But there has been no counter-claim, and that plays in his defense to a large extent. We therefore have to believe him for now.

Yet you want to have him reveal an innocent to

prove his sanity

. Sure, it may very well work, but how would it be any different now than if Lowell had not claimed and kept the results to himself?

And while it would prove his sanity, again, that would come to his attention in the future when someone he investigated was killed, which is pretty likely to occur by mid-way through the game.

Then you'd say, "well he switched up his targets, and he's lying". Well guess what? We can't really prove whether or not he's lying without lynching him. If he's scum, he knows who's innocent, and could

easily

fake cop. If he's cop, well, same deal, except he didn't know the alignment before hand.

So your proposition is extremely flawed, and the fact that you are unwilling to accept it as such is just another factor that is playing against you.

[Kison]

As someone stated earlier, everyone is a confirmed townie to the mafia.

Which is why his telling us who he investigated will tell us

nothing

about whether or not he is scum.

[Kison]

Seriously, he has repeatedly said "We should just leave Lowell alone, he's almost assuredly the cop, cause there is no counterclaim!" That's pretty much treating someone as cleared.

I see it more as an attempt to move on for now. The past few pages have been repeated arguments.

[Kison]

Show me where the rules specify that he cannot use his investigating powers while using an item.

Also, he is the only reliable candidate for the bells. He has investigated an innocent, and can will his bells to said person.

Or his scumbuddies. You know.

Well yeah, if he is scum. But my point was that that if we're going to, for the

moment

, accept that he is cop, he's no worse of a candidate than anyone else.

And we clearly don't know if he's not town or not. We have to assume. Else we risk losing our best chance at finding the scum.

Vote : IH

FoS:Kison

The cop is not the best chance/only chance to find scum. This brings into play that "We shouldn't do anything to lowell and trust him, on the offchance that he is the cop! We can't find the scum without the cop!" This then dulls the town into just saying "Hey, what result did you get?"

We shouldn't do that, as it doesn't just ruin the game for everyone, it can cripple the town beyond repair if Lowell is scum, and manages to clear people who he has no idea. This game could have a cult, which throws a cop off anyways, a seperate scum group, which would disprove his claim, or SKs.

I'm not saying we shouldn't rule out the possibility of Lowell being scum. However, I do not think that we should risk lynching him to find out. I never said he was our only chance to finding scum, but the cop is definitely one of our best resources for doing the job.

But at the time, we don't really have much to legitimize/disclaim Lowell. No, a lack of counterclaim is not proof that he is cop, but it does play in his favor in my opinion.

Not only this, he then ignores the whole point of what I was saying earlier. To Validatea scummy Lowells claims, which will actually help the town out in the long run, we need to have investigations revealed, to combat against a fake claimed cop, and the following groups which I mentioned earlier in this post (cults, sks, GFs, multiple scum groups if he is not the cop). This being a large themed game, I'd be surprised with one scum group.

Still this argument. I thought your whole point of having him reveal was to test his sanity? I still do not understand how you plan on using his investigation result to figure out if he's scum. Like I said, and like I will continue to say,

The cop can reveal innocent or scum

The scum can reveal innocent or scum

With both having the same ability, how does his revelation prove or disprove his alignment? You said something about him not being able to make things up as he goes along, but I'm not sure I understood what you meant. So, please clarify that plan so that I can see what you're getting.

[Kison]

Ok, I'll admit that I hadn't take that into consideration. I'm going to

unvote

for now and comment more in depth when I have time.

[Kison]

Yomahako, IH is right that it is not a guaranteed kill for scum, depending on the layout of the scum party. For example, I was in a game elsewhere where there were two of us against twenty, and we didn't know anything about eachother. If Lowell names someone "townie" and we later lynch them and they turn up scum, then he's been caught.

The thing is, I don't know if it's worth risking. How many nights would this take? If Lowell is cop, we lose a valuable list in the future. If he's scum, well, we just get rid of another scum. The real cop would eventually speak up, otherwise he'd be wasting his role. At that time, we can consider getting rid of him.

[Kison]

Vote: Rand al'Thor

It is true that Yamahako did not say that he wanted to lynch the cop. In fact, I disagree whole heartedly with the bandwagon because of how people have twisted what he said. But he reiterated his meaning and you still decided to vote for him with the excuse of the initial misinterpretation.

[Kison]

We might agree, but that doesn't change the fact that you thought it was alright to vote off our claimed cop. Not to mention you voted IH for the sake of following the bandwagon and without providing any reason.

So you vote me, but not vote Cloud which is where I got the idea from?

This was before it was clarified.

[Kison]

~~~Unofficial Vote Count~~~

Code: Select all

Lowell       (1) : ubertimmy
IH           (2) : Yamahako, Lowell
ac1983fan    (2) : OverTheUnder, ChannelDelibird
Yomakaho     (3) : StallingChamp, Cloud, Rand Althor
Rand Althor  (4) : Toaster Strudel, Kison, ~N9V~, PBuG

Not voting   (8) : mole, Cheesefan, Twito, Jules, Wizardcat, Fircoal, ac1983fan, IH

[Kison]

If Lowell is not the cop, then why wouldn't the best case scenario be for the real cop to counter claim? We'd bag us a scum right off the bat and confirm the cop all in one swoop.

I have to say I immensely dislike this logic. A counter-claim could very well be scum trying to kamakazi to get rid of the cop. As you say it, any counter claim would denounce Lowell as 100% positively scum. That is horribly wrong.*

IH

-- How many scum would you safely predict there are in this game?

[Kison]

So let's then assume there are 4 scum for now.

Let us assume that tonight we will lynch a townie, as we most likely will, since we assumed 4 scum VS 20 players, leaving us with a 1/5 chance of being correct. Let's try to look at a little statistics to see how long it would probably take Lowell to find scum...

We began with 21 players. 1 was killed last night(20). However, Lowell has no reason to investigate himself(19). He also claims to have investigated another townie(18). We also assume that one townie will be lynched tonight(17). That leaves Lowell with 17 targets to choose from tonight.

(4 / 17) = (23.5% chance of finding scum)

One player will be nightkilled. Let's again assume another townie is lynched on day two. He also investigated someone the previous night, so will not investigate them again. Lowell now has 14 targets to check during the second evening.

(4 / 14) = (28.6% chance of finding scum)

So by day 4, Lowell would have a 52.1% chance of finiding scum through investigations. I'd begin to be suspicious if by then he has not found anyone. If by day 5 he continues to claim that he has found no scum, I would say we should

seriously

reconsider his alignment, as he'd be in the 75% range, not to mention failure on DAY ONE as well.

Basically what I'm saying is, we could preserve his list on the chance that he turns out to be a legit cop while still disproving him later in the game. Remember, it doesn't matter when we lynch him if he's scum, just as long as we do.

I realize he may try to claim things like "no result", but what would you have done if he claimed that tomorrow anyways?

[Kison]

The whole point of Lowell giving his result is a list of people and their alignments from later on, instead of a list he can compose, that are probably going to be halfway full of dead people he can craft up after already knowing their roles.

True... Just trying to think of alternatives.

[Kison]

I see legitimate reasoning for voting OTU, RA, Yamahoko, and TS, and I have been considering moving my move. However, you did highlight some good points on TS that I have not kept track of, and therefore will look into those in more depth tomorrow before I decide on whether or not I'll move my vote.

I don't think CDB is scum just yet, but I do find it odd that he has vanished. I have noticed this as well.

All in all, good analysis and summary of the game thus far.

[Kison]

Post Office

[Kison]

~~Kison's Unofficial Vote Count~~

Code: Select all

Yamahako        (4) : StallingChamp, Cloud, IH, PBuG
Rand al'Thor    (5) : Toaster Strudel, Kison, ~N9V~, Yamahako, Theopor_COD
ac1983fan       (2) : OverTheUnder, ChannelDelibird
Lowell          (1) : ubertimmy
ubertimmy       (1) : Jules

Not voting      (7) : BattleMage, Twito, Wizardcat, Fircoal, ac1983fan, Rand al'Thor, Lowell

MOD - I think you made a mistake with the vote count on post 317. Both OverTheUnder and ChannelDelibird were voting for ac1983fan at the time of that post.

Toaster Strudel - I am going to have to agree with Theoper COD that Toaster Strudel has been scummy this entire game. I know that this is not foreign to her playstyle, but she has been pushing for a Rand al'Thor lynch, and prior to that, a general lynch period. This, on top of not paying attention, and not providing any other input, has earned a vote from me.

Vote : Toaster Strudel

I think the case against Rand is legit, but weak. His reason for voting for Yamahako was rather lame, but I can see how he could make the mistake.

I think the second strongest case would be ac1983fan for the way he's acted all of today.

And let us not forget ubertimmy's actions at the beginning of the day as he very cockily voted for Lowell and disregarded the risk a Lowell lynch posed.

Lastly :

Requesting Prods For ubertimmy, Fircoal

[Kison]

He certainly doesnt put this much effort into the other games im in with him.

Oh that is quite a humorous reason to vote me, especially since it's so false.

Thats 2 vote counts i believe now...

Actually, it's three. And at a time of need for one, I provide one. I do not do such in games where vote counts are frequently provided.

I dont believe ive seen him die as scum yet, so the fact that he is playing differently, implies that he could well be scum here.

Or it could mean I'm town here and scum elsewhere. Or maybe you're chasing shadows again.

I would vote you for such crappy logic, but I am too used to your typical behavior.

[Kison]

I do not have anything new to add based on what has occurred since my last post, either.

[Kison]

TWITO : How did your reread go??

Would it be possible to prod WizardCat, Fircoal, Ubertimmy, and then replace them if they do not show themselves?

[Kison]

if you don't have anything to say, but you'd still like to play, and you get prodded, than you have to post that you don't have anything to say, or else you can't play.

I'll give you something to say.

Give me a list of players who you think are scum, those who you think are questionable, and those who you think are town. Provide reasons with each.

[Kison]

BM, the funny thing about you is you make all these theories but you never provide any reasons to back them up. That may be why no-one listens to you.

I think Kison is a good lynch because he has been acting ratherly oddly this game. Differently to all the other games im in with him.

You say I am acting odd in this game. How about stating

how

I am acting odd. It may help your case a little bit. If it's still about how I provided vote-counts, then please do not bother.

In the mean time, I am still waiting for ac1983's response to my question. The slowing pace of this game is irritating.

[Kison]

im sure i have already explained this. If you play a game, it helps if you pay attention just a little bit.

The fact that I knew you had already previously said something about my vote counts is proof that I have paid attention.

your last post is a classic example. Your agitation is evident, because the game is moving at a slow pace. In most games, i tend to let the game flow. If things are slow, try and start a conversation. Dont just whinge about the fact that no1 is talking.

How is this suspicious?

Other things include your repeated attempts to try and Mod the game. Presumably this is in an attempt to make yourself look above suspicion.

So providing an

unofficial

vote count means I am trying to become an

official

moderator? Get real.

Earlier on, during my first reread, i thought u looked by far the scummiest. Some of your comments to the newer players were downright stupid, and im amazed that no1 questioned them. Ill pick out some choice quotes a bit later.

You do that.

Perhaps it would be helpful if you gave an indication of YOUR thoughts at this stage, rather than trying to find out everyone elses.

Perhaps if you paid attention my thoughts would become blazingly obvious to you based on things I have repeatedly said and where my votes have gone. I only try to get the thoughts of those who do not post them.

In the meantime, my vote stands. You have been far too aggressive in this game not to be scum!

Sure.

[Kison]

the fact that you obviously didnt remember this, or wanted me to repeat it, is an inherent indication that you weren't paying attention.

You keep claiming I forgot something. What is it?

the fact that you are trying to rush the game is a sign that you obviously care alot about this game.

I care about all my games. This one's getting slow. This is not the only game of mine that is becoming slow, nor is it the only one I've attempted to speed up. So it doesn't indicate anything.

The vote count is the job of the moderator. You were providing the votecount, hence you were trying to fill the role of the moderator.

If you had half a brain, and used more than half of that, you'd realize that I'm not the only one on this site who has provided unofficial vote counts in order to help not only myself, but everyone else see where we stand with our votes. It is idiotic and pathetic for you to try to conclude that I am scum for doing this. Were I not to, and were I to let the game roll on, we lose track of where we stand, and an accidental lynch becomes more and more likely. Therefore, I actually helped the town by keeping track of the votes.

Basically, if you want to start a case against me, try using something LEGIT.

[Kison]

I never bought the Yamahako wagon fully, so I'll stay away from it for the time being. Rand al'Thor is still questionable in my book. IH's hard pushing for a Yamahako lynch wasn't too pleasing, either.

Toaster Strudel's last OMGUS post, along with Theoper's post earlier(which I agreed with when he initially posted it), have convinced me that this is a good avenue to pursue for now.

[Kison]

Lowell, please explain how the reasons against TS are stupid? I thought Theoper's analysis was pretty direct. I could handle her accidentally voting you at that one point, but the lurking, not paying attention thing really bothers me.

Yamahako, why are you so quick to take your vote off based solely on Lowell's request? I thought you were making a case against her, now you suddenly drop it? What's up with that?

[Kison]

i dont think Lowells comments NECESSARILY meant that. At least i hope not, otherwise you have just condemned a confirmed innocent to death.
BM

Lowell, please explain how the reasons against TS are stupid? I thought Theoper's analysis was pretty direct. I could handle her accidentally voting you at that one point, but the lurking, not paying attention thing really bothers me.

Yamahako, why are you so quick to take your vote off based solely on Lowell's request? I thought you were making a case against her, now you suddenly drop it? What's up with that?

sigh, didn't Lowell get an innocent last night? I didn't want to have to point that out :-/

QFT. But I must admit, I did suspect it. In any event, it would be better to not end up lynching a townie and allowing the Mafia to get a night kill.

On the other hand, Lowell is by no means cleared as our cop. Could be scum "cop" trying to divert attention from his scumbuddy. In the end, we don't know, so I'm not taking his word with any more authority unless he straight up defends TS with his investigation result. Then we'll go to the next stage.

IH - I'll read your thoughts on Yamahako again, but I didn't really like the case against him from what I remember. Nevertheless, I'll give it another shot.

[Kison]

Unvote

as well.

[Kison]

You continued insistance in my scum alignment makes you seem suspicious to me, but not enough for me to think you're town.

You mean scum?

Anyway, I'm not sure whether or not Spectrumvoid's latest post means he'll be replacing, imposing a deadline, both, or what. Keeping that in mind, IH, we know your thoughts on Yamahako, but what do you think of Toaster Strudel?

[Kison]

Not looking for scum? I remained active up until the case against you, TS, and since then, I feel that nothing substantial has formed. I find it ironic that you of all people are trying to accuse me of lurking. :/

And, read IH's posts, because he has explained why he thinks that Yamahako is scum.

[Kison]

Umpteen pages ago.

[Kison]

Damnit, and now I really don't know who to believe, to be honest. The only kind of power I saw Lowell wielding was the fact that he was not getting voted. The fact that he claimed may have very well been to get you to come out and claim yourself. Now, if we let both of you live, our doc(assuming we have one), will have to pick and choose between you two.

I'll have to think on this, but in the mean time, would it be possible that we have two copes, one possibly with a sanity issue?

OTU

: What is your role's name?

[Kison]

Good. The reason I asked for the role name was to confirm that this was a counter claim. Now we

know

that one of them is lying, and that we're not dealing with a dual-cop possibility.

OTU - Did you investigate someone last night? Without specifying who, was it an innocent or guilty result?

Of the two of these, one of them has to go today.

Unvote

Vote : OverTheUnder

At first, he decided not to believe Lowell's claim, demanding that he reveal his investigation result:

I'm not one quick to believe that claim, let's hear who you investigated to clarify your claim.

Later, he changes his mind and begins playing against the same card he'd been a few posts before:

...

WHY IS IT SO WRONG FOR LOWELL TO TELL US WHO HE INSPECTED?
He's already claimed cop... the person who he inspected doesn't have to roleclaim, so his role would still be a mystery....

The reason has been given numerous times and yet you still don't understand? You're still trying to get that name aren't you, you scum.

Vote ac1983fan

This isn't exactly indicative of his role, but it's a pretty scummy move. He hadn't posted

anything

all throughout April, so there's really nothing implying his role here.

[Kison]

vote:OTU

idiot scum...
if you really were the cop, you would've claimed earlier...
unless theres two cops... which I doubt. Booker would probably be a backup cop.

Okay, that'll be an

FOS ac1983fan

Guess who's getting investigated tonight????

ps- just kidding, I'm not telling who... you can't begin to keep up with me!

Anyone see the De La Hoya/ Mayweahter fight? Anyone else drunk and disappointed??? No? Just me? Okay

.

Probably not the best thing in the world to announce that... If he isn't scum, he'll be dead tomorrow.

[Kison]

FoS : ac1983fan

for the same reasons Lowell specified. I feared the same thing, so I put the question out there ASAP.

[Kison]

Yeah... What happened, there?

[Kison]

Vote for Bells: Lowell

Why? Because I don't trust anyone else.

[Kison]

Or a vigilante. Notice how IH was deadset on going after Yamahako, and look who wound up dead. Someone probably took it upon themselves to do the deed. Though I wouldn't call it conclusive, I'd rather not speculate on what scum says. So keep an open mind.

[Kison]

IH - I would rather waste the bells having them go to Lowell unnecessarily than to see them in the hands of scum.

[Kison]

Or not...

[Kison]

Go for it.

[Kison]

Seeing as we don't know who the author on the bulletin board is, I won't really take it very seriously unless we first test some of its claims.

[Kison]

Vote : ~N9V~

Need I say more?

[Kison]

You forgot the closing tag, PBuG.

[Kison]

...

Vote : ~N9V~

[Kison]

Is it nine to lynch?

17 alive, 9 to lynch.

[Kison]

HAHAHA, good job Yamahako.

Lowell, you were my hero this game. You did awesome.

My role was kind of bizarre. I was able to check people's clothing articles. I had no idea what to do with that except maybe later confirm the Sabel.