Xenoblade Mafia (Game Over)

[waynegg]

Did you notice I let you dangle for a good while at L-1? I was waiting for scum hammer that never came. So TD, MS, SAD. One ML on the 3 makes me really change my read Nacho (yeah, I never trust anyone fully until endgame), but I'm happy to have you until then. I did mean to get back sooner after you started posting and got tied up somewhere. Those extra 30 minutes were an oops.

[spinachattack]

Did you notice I let you dangle for a good while at L-1? I was waiting for scum hammer that never came. So TD, MS, SAD. One ML on the 3 makes me really change my read Nacho (yeah, I never trust anyone fully until endgame), but I'm happy to have you until then. I did mean to get back sooner after you started posting and got tied up somewhere. Those extra 30 minutes were an oops.

Fuckin' 'ell!

[TiphaineDeath]

hehe, freedom for the heaaaads!

[Nachomamma8]

Then I had decided you were scum, but you couldn't be that color of scum because you were telling me to lynch that color of scum. So you had to be the other color of scum. Honestly the idea that after you slipped you might actually be town didn't enter in to my head, cept the once I think it might have. I just kind of kept thinking "slippityslippityscummity."

And now that I've confronted you on that reasoning, your opinion isn't changing at all...?

An honestly, if I had really wanted you lynched and didn't care all I had to do was retract my reasoning, go along with you, say that lynching red scum today was right (even though it's totally not) and then call you red and happily sing and dance my way on to your grave. For fucks sake man.

But backing down like that probably would've have looked pretty fucking scummy, don't you think?

Who is SA?

Spinachattack.

[Nachomamma8]

Then I had decided you were scum, but you couldn't be that color of scum because you were telling me to lynch that color of scum. So you had to be the other color of scum. Honestly the idea that after you slipped you might actually be town didn't enter in to my head, cept the once I think it might have. I just kind of kept thinking "slippityslippityscummity."

And now that I've confronted you on that reasoning, your opinion isn't changing at all...?

An honestly, if I had really wanted you lynched and didn't care all I had to do was retract my reasoning, go along with you, say that lynching red scum today was right (even though it's totally not) and then call you red and happily sing and dance my way on to your grave. For fucks sake man.

But backing down like that probably would've have looked pretty fucking scummy, don't you think?

Who is SA?

Spinachattack.

[TiphaineDeath]

I don't know man. You feel scum to me, so does MS. I have no clue who the third is. All my beautiful little logic trees have been set on fire by angry spinach and nachos X_x There are good reasons for you to be scum, more than just the slip, post slip. I remember seeing them.

No it wouldn't backing down in the face of superior logic never looks scummy, it would have been fucking cake and if you think I couldn't have pulled that off smelling like a rose I feel slightly insulted.

wait waaaaaait, waitwaitwaitwait, did you just call me and spinach scumbuddies?

[spinachattack]

Hey, spinach nachos are pretty daned good. Don't knock it!

[Nachomamma8]

There are good reasons for you to be scum, more than just the slip, post slip. I remember seeing them.

Cool. Talk about them. I'll give you plenty of time.

wait waaaaaait, waitwaitwaitwait, did you just call me and spinach scumbuddies?

No.

[TiphaineDeath]

Not only does that sound grody but, ANGRY spinach nachos man, like, fire in the belly. Do. Not. Want.

Pedit: I-that, I probably should have been doing that this whole time insteadd of bitching about confusion huh? Aright it's late and I'm way tired, I'm kind of falling apart so it's sleep time. I'll go and make an actual case on you tomorrow.

Why are you being so goddamned helpful? X_x.

[spinachattack]

I am going to get some sleep been up most of the night so I could get some computer time while NS is sleeping but I am totally wiped now. I will be doing more with reads n such

BTW no one hammer til I get a chance to claim n post my reads please

Remember that I am sharing a computer atm.

And since the day started it is not like there is not time to sort things out.



Pedit

seered?

you mean a cop result? A seer does werewolf guilties and town innocents, a cop can read mafia members.

Not only does that sound grody but, ANGRY spinach nachos man, like, fire in the belly. Do. Not. Want.

Pedit: I-that, I probably should have been doing that this whole time insteadd of bitching about confusion huh? Aright it's late and I'm way tired, I'm kind of falling apart so it's sleep time. I'll go and make an actual case on you tomorrow.

Why are you being so goddamned helpful? X_x.

Is there a fucking echo in here? Helloooo, eloooo, loop, loo, lo...

[spinachattack]

Pulled pork
Refried beans
Queso blanco
Monterey Jack
SPINACH
Habanero pico


Sour cream
Guacamole

It's the shit!

[spinachattack]

Doing this "for" you TD

SAD is town =/= strong town

SAD cannot be my buddy,

meaning he's not red.

And he's absolutely convinced that you're the blue.
So...

Stand alone, this is so fucking bad. In context, he's playing along with the hypothetical you two were pushing and talking in second person.

Pedit: huh, I'm calling you red scum, if redscum flip than I was right X_x. Explain that question better.

If

the redscumteam dies and

I'm not one of them

what happens?

Yup. I know. More experience there than I would like to admit. You were last on my lynch list, I really hope to play with you again. You've expanded my knowledge with this game a lot. That said, this is my lynch list.

And I hope if I get lynched and

if

I flip town, you will drop that BRO suspicion and lynch the fuck out of MS if we can still somehow pull off the win. A mislynch means that blue scum needs to hit redscum, which shouldn't be that hard considering scum will be in {Metal Sonic, Ser Arthur Dayne, TiphaineDeath}.

Soooo much if, not enough when. But still taken OOC in regards to the prevailing conversation.

Now. Can you put that in context with the conversation where he wasn't going along with the hypothetical you two had going with Nacho?

[borkjerfkin]

Votecount 5.6

[3] Nachomamma8 (Ser Arthur Dayne, Metal Sonic, TiphaineDeath)
[3] TiphaineDeath (BROseidon, Nachomamma8, spinachattack)

[2] Not Voting (Andrius, GuyInFreezer)

With 8 alive, it is 5 to lynch.

Let me know if you see any problems.

Deadline is in (expired on 2013-06-27 14:00:00)

[Metal Sonic]

where is andy

where is andy
we need his input!

[Metal Sonic]

7 days deadline ooh lala lets afk here

too much speculation too much theories

too little evidence

[waynegg]

Interesting.

[spinachattack]

Interesting.

QFT

[TiphaineDeath]

Ok boys and girls, prep for wall.

I'm gonna start with what spinach pointed out and go from there..... Oh wait, no I'm not because all of the reasoning for those posts being scummy is a load of crap and he's gambiting again, de hurr de durr.

The first post is obviously the scumslip. This is where Nacho says there is only one scum left. *Bam Scumdar* Logically if he only cares about one scum left he must be red scum.

Nacho's 3615 is feigning ignorance, I do not like this. Scum scummity scum want a mislynch, always, and you know that.

3680 is another post that I Severely dislike. If/When Nacho flips scum look for his buddies in that second list. It is not safe in the slightest to say those four are town. Once again, town nacho is smarter than this. Like, andi is town, but the other three?

3682 is twisting my words to his own purposes, do-not-like.

3689 was one the spinach tried to quote at me as being bad, but there's nothing wrong with this post. Something feels off in relation to this though, we'll touch back on it later.

3720 is definitive proof nacho and MS are on different teams, I'll touch back on this one too.

3737 is where nacho's stubbornness really crosses the line from reasonable to unreasonable. I've addressed this like five times and he still wants me too. This is also when I get the inkling that something is off with my read on him as red scum.

The end of post 3809 is another bad ignorance/non ignorance tell by nacho.

But then at the end of all this, a few things are true.
One Nacho scum slipped Red. Two, Nacho has been advocating HARD for a red-lynch. Three, Nacho has more good/strong posts then bad/weak ones. Four, nacho's general attitude has been helpful towards me, despite me calling for his blood. Five, I've been completely ignoring the fact that there are too many contradictions here for nacho to be scum.

Three really has to be ignored on the basis that nacho is a strong player, even as scum he would have many strong posts and but a few weak ones we'd have to catch and hold on to hard if we wanted him lynched. The problem is one-two-four=five. And five stinks.

You know what I smell? I smell a rat. Hold on to your underwear ladies and gentleman cause this post is taking a turn towards the unexpected.

If I may draw your attention to spinach for a moment. Let's take a minute to look at this guy, who for quite awhile now both me and nacho have been townreading, and lets look at his vote pattern since nacho's "slip."

Unvote TD Vote SAD
Unvote SAD Vote Nacho
Unvote Nacho
Vote TD
Unvote TD Vote Nacho
Unvote Nacho
Vote Nacho
Unvote Nacho Vote TD

Spinach has been in a position of relative power ever since nacho's "slip." I stopped poking at him, nobody else bothered. Me-MS-Nacho were pretty much what was being argued over. However the vote's been pretty well split between me and nacho, sometimes one of us'll get close, sometimes the other will, but we don't get lynched. Hell I've never even hit L-1. This makes me think there are already scum on one or both of our wagons.

What happens, if in some crazy world, I admit I'm wrong and decide that this me v nacho thing is town on town? What happens if MS isn't in fact blue scum? I tried this earlier, but I second guessed myself and came up with the wrong result. Spinach has been egging on this stupid me and nacho thing, trying to get more people to come down on one side or the other, or get one of us to slip hard enough he can force town to vote us.

his 3488 says "I stand by this, nacho is scum"

by his next post 3489, he's voting me.

It's almost like he looked at the two people most likely to eat it today and got on both of their wagons. When they started attacking each other it was like Christmas come early for this guy.

He's been gambiting up down and every whichway trying so hard his eyeballs are fuckin bugging out to make me or nacho slip. He just tried again with that useless fucking quotes post. And if he thought I was scum right no why the frack would he be helping me, AT ALL.

Spinach has been defending MS throughout much of today. He saw that I could finally, maybe pull a lynch on this guy, and headed that off at the pass with a classic chainsaw defense.

Let's try this logic tree one last time.

8 players alive 2 scum 1 scum 5 town

Town(Me, Nacho, Andi)
Scum(Spinach, MS)
To Be Sorted (SAD, Gif, Bro)
Now who from the TBS pile has connections to orc and rach? That's the substance of another post as this one has already gone far past reasonable length, but that's my next step, expect it later today.

[waynegg]

There is so much ah-ha caught you, it was my grand plan all along AtE in that I can't do anything but laugh. Is that the best you've got? I think I'll quote it and hi light all the lie tells just for fun. Really desperate aren't you!

[TiphaineDeath]

Nice misrep brothah, this was not my grand plan all along. I wish I was that fuggin smart. I'm just realizing all this now. But yes, I caught you, and yes that is exactly the way I expected you to react. And no, I've said it before and i'll say it again, I don't care about your silly little lie detector list. If it was that infallible the government would be like perfect avenging angels, and they are obviously not. Also double agents would never exist because everyone would be able to tell.

[TiphaineDeath]

Also, can't believe I forgot this. UNVOTE:

[waynegg]

Fucking ipad dropped all my formatting. Not starting over again so here's the link again

http://liespotting.com/liespotting-basics/words/

I see all but points 1 and 9. These in particular:

Liars use long introductions but skip over main events. When a liar wants to build credibility, she will pad her story with as much factual content as possible. The Israeli researcher Avinoam Sapir found that deceptive individuals will add more detail around the prologue of a story, but gloss over the main event where the deception comes into play. Careful listeners can pick up on this lopsided storytelling style and use the BASIC method to zero in on the missing details with specific questions.

Liars hedge their statements. We hear them in court testimony, political hearings and TV confessional interviews all the time: qualifying statements that leave an out for the person on the hot seat. “As far as I recall…” “If you really think about it…” “What I remember is…” Hedged statements aren’t an absolute indicator of deception, but an overuse of such qualifying phrases certainly should raise suspicion that a person isn’t being totally up front with what he or she knows.

Liars love euphemisms. It’s human nature not to implicate ourselves in wrongdoing. This holds true even for liars, who will shy away from dwelling on their deception if possible. One way they do this is opting for softer language—instead of saying “I didn’t steal the purse” they may say “I didn’t take the purse.” If you ask someone a direct question about their involvement in an incident and they change your words to something softer, raise your deception antennae.

Liars overemphasize their truthfulness. “To tell you the truth…” “Honestly…” “I swear to you…” Oh, if only it were so! When people use these bolstering statements to emphasize their honesty, there’s a good chance they are hiding something. Learning to baseline someone’s normal behavior is important in situations such as this: You want to listen for normal or harmless use of such phrases. There’s no need to add them if you really are telling the truth, so be on guard.

And you don't know what chainsaw is, so let me help

The general form of this tell is "a player who defends another player by attacking the other player's attacker is very probably scum".
The key to identifying this tell is intent - it is possible to confuse Chainsaw Defense with a player who simply finds the attacker scummy and has no intent of defense. In general, you can be reasonably sure that this tell is involved if a) the player supposedly using Chainsaw Defense has not previously been especially critical of the player he is now attacking, and b) the player supposedly using Chainsaw Defense seems to find the player he is supposedly defending at least reasonably pro-town.
The extreme form of this tell is Mutual Chainsaw Defense, where two players defend each other by attacking each others' attackers. This is a major scumtell, and Tarhalindur would be willing to lynch/vig both players with only this tell as justification.
The Chainsaw Defense is named after the mental image of a player ripping apart another player with a chainsaw for daring to attack his ally. It should not be confused with the Cochrane Defense, which can also be referred to as the Chainsaw Defense (the Wiki refers to the Cochrane Defense this way), which is a gambit made by players investigated as scum. The Chainsaw Defense can also be referred to as the Bodyguard Defense in order to prevent confusion.
UPDATE: After further analysis, Tarhalindur has determined that the Chainsaw Defense is only trustworthy once the player defended has been revealed to be group scum (once the player defended is proved to be Mafia, any player that used Chainsaw Defense on the dead scum should be scrutinized). Otherwise, it is a null tell. Mutual Chainsaw Defense may, however, still be an outright scumtell; more research is required here.

[spinachattack]

Fucking ipad dropped all my formatting. Not starting over again so here's the link again

http://liespotting.com/liespotting-basics/words/

I see all but points 1 and 9. These in particular:

Liars use long introductions but skip over main events. When a liar wants to build credibility, she will pad her story with as much factual content as possible. The Israeli researcher Avinoam Sapir found that deceptive individuals will add more detail around the prologue of a story, but gloss over the main event where the deception comes into play. Careful listeners can pick up on this lopsided storytelling style and use the BASIC method to zero in on the missing details with specific questions.

Liars hedge their statements. We hear them in court testimony, political hearings and TV confessional interviews all the time: qualifying statements that leave an out for the person on the hot seat. “As far as I recall…” “If you really think about it…” “What I remember is…” Hedged statements aren’t an absolute indicator of deception, but an overuse of such qualifying phrases certainly should raise suspicion that a person isn’t being totally up front with what he or she knows.

Liars love euphemisms. It’s human nature not to implicate ourselves in wrongdoing. This holds true even for liars, who will shy away from dwelling on their deception if possible. One way they do this is opting for softer language—instead of saying “I didn’t steal the purse” they may say “I didn’t take the purse.” If you ask someone a direct question about their involvement in an incident and they change your words to something softer, raise your deception antennae.

Liars overemphasize their truthfulness. “To tell you the truth…” “Honestly…” “I swear to you…” Oh, if only it were so! When people use these bolstering statements to emphasize their honesty, there’s a good chance they are hiding something. Learning to baseline someone’s normal behavior is important in situations such as this: You want to listen for normal or harmless use of such phrases. There’s no need to add them if you really are telling the truth, so be on guard.

And you don't know what chainsaw is, so let me help

The general form of this tell is "a player who defends another player by attacking the other player's attacker is very probably scum".
The key to identifying this tell is intent - it is possible to confuse Chainsaw Defense with a player who simply finds the attacker scummy and has no intent of defense. In general, you can be reasonably sure that this tell is involved if a) the player supposedly using Chainsaw Defense has not previously been especially critical of the player he is now attacking, and b) the player supposedly using Chainsaw Defense seems to find the player he is supposedly defending at least reasonably pro-town.
The extreme form of this tell is Mutual Chainsaw Defense, where two players defend each other by attacking each others' attackers. This is a major scumtell, and Tarhalindur would be willing to lynch/vig both players with only this tell as justification.
The Chainsaw Defense is named after the mental image of a player ripping apart another player with a chainsaw for daring to attack his ally. It should not be confused with the Cochrane Defense, which can also be referred to as the Chainsaw Defense (the Wiki refers to the Cochrane Defense this way), which is a gambit made by players investigated as scum. The Chainsaw Defense can also be referred to as the Bodyguard Defense in order to prevent confusion.
UPDATE: After further analysis, Tarhalindur has determined that the Chainsaw Defense is only trustworthy once the player defended has been revealed to be group scum (once the player defended is proved to be Mafia, any player that used Chainsaw Defense on the dead scum should be scrutinized). Otherwise, it is a null tell. Mutual Chainsaw Defense may, however, still be an outright scumtell; more research is required here.

[borkjerfkin]

I would appreciate if we could be a little more conscientious about posting on the correct account.

[TiphaineDeath]

I would appreciate it if you wouldn't used undefendable "You're lying because blabbityblabbityblah" statements as your only form of defense.

Oh wait, I'm totally cool with it because it makes you look even scummier.