Two-Headed Mafia 2 - GAME OVER!

[petroleumjelly]

If you're so sure we have a cult and a vig, then why don't get the vig to claim?

1.) It's the Vig's choice
2.) If the Vig claims, they could:
->

A.

Get culted
->

B.

Get nightkilled by scum (while the scum hope Vig targets cult, I would imagine)
3.) I would rather force scum out into the open as opposed to a useful town role

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Forcing any possible vig to claim shall give us clarity and information we really need. At this point in the game, there are at least 4 scum left, realistically speaking. And if there's a cult, we need to know and we need to lynch the recruiter(this also makes 2A pretty much meaningless(as if it weren't already as a result of 2B)). If there's not a cult, then lynching kleb might well lose us the game. The importance of the information certainly justifies a claim. And your first point is just kinda dumb.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You can scratch the "at least" in the second sentence. It's pretty much meaningless.

[ambic]

A vig claim would guarantee any "vig's" death overnight, unless you want someone to claim doctor as well? So I agree with PJ and whoever it was that said the vig should only claim if being voted. Forced or not, I would imagine a vig would be upset about hitting 2 cops randomly, whereas an SK would be rather happy.

The cult leader may be dangerous, but a potential scum group of 3 or 4 is more so. So the vote should still be the same result. MoS/Glork should die today. THe mafia will still have a decent chance of hitting cult leaders overnight anyways.

"A cult is a very real possibility": This will depend. THe mafia havent managed to nuke a single cult member to date, and we havent managed to lynch one. Either the 'cult' is very inactive in it's recruiting abilities, or we are very unlucky. 9 Deaths out of 17 players, that would make the cult so potentially big that it would be an all out Cult vs Mafia game. That doesn't appear to be the case. To me, I feel as though the whole cult thing is springing up from Glork's scum buddies (or being pushed along that line) to create confusion. And that is the risk we take by not lynching Glork outrightly. (DOn't get me wrong I'm not suggesting we don't do this). I see MGM is being credited by MrBuddyLee for MBL's theory that SV/Kleb are cult. I will try and go back later and see if I can see where and how that conclusion is made.

[klebian]

All I can say is that modding history, while may often work to find out roles, doesn't always apply. There's always a first time to use a role, after all...

[spectrumvoid]

*nods*

I'm confused as to the speculation over the cult role, simply because other than a short discussion with some other newbies, I've never heard of a cult. If I'm getting this right, the main reason you're (a generic 'you're' here) thinking we're cult is because you don't buy our claim? Is there any reason for not buying our claim other than Courk's modding history? All I can say is, it's a pretty boring mod who uses the same roles each time.

Sorry to sound a little pissed off, but our role was revealed, and we're probably going to get killed tonight by scum... and people don't believe us?!

[Mastermind of Sin]

o.O

SV, you've played in like 50 games on mafiascum and were nominated for "Most Prolific" player for the 2006 scummies, and you've never head of the cult role? WTF?

[MrBuddyLee]

Two cops and a gunsmith in this game. Out of 17 players. Excessive. It just doesn't fit.

I don't need to look at Courk's mod history to know something's not right with that claim. It doesn't fit in several ways:

1) It's excessively duplicative and overpowered in a medium-sized game.
2) It's an off role in a game with standard roles.
3) The claim took forever for its claimants to generate, and they felt pressured to make it without many people clamoring for the claim.
4) The guilty results on scum were announced with a confidence too careless or reckless for a gunsmith to have made.

This is the reasonin from my claim of pooky/adele as scum yesterday, I really didn't consider a vig (what's a forced-vig, exactly? He HAS to kill every night? And how would his choice work if he forgot to send in a choice?) as I didn't think that a reasonable vigilante wouldn't think through his kills enough to kill the cops both nights..

So you were a gunsmith and not a cop but in the process of discussing what a gunsmith is, you didn't even consider that it's most often accompanied by a vig in the game?

You assumed a game with an SK and four scum (3 is too weak with no cult), two NKs a night, and you didn't even consider for a moment that there would be a vig there to counter that killing power? If Pooky was a vig you'd have outed him with your play.

I'm not buying it.

To me, I feel as though the whole cult thing is springing up from Glork's scum buddies (or being pushed along that line) to create confusion.

Hardly. I believe I was the first head to post the possibility of a cult, and I considered it because I agreed with your comment that three cops didn't make sense and thus the "results" demanded another explanation. The scum are the people who'd prefer to rush the day through without getting everyone on the record or fully exploring possibilities.

I see MGM is being credited by MrBuddyLee for MBL's theory that SV/Kleb are cult

No, my MGM comment was in reference to something else.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Please vote Lowell/Sprontalic, they're scum. My other head thought it would be funny to claim scum since he doesn't have time for this game anymore, especially since someone seems to think we're scum. Cops are often considered to have guns when the gunsmith role is used, since RL cops usually do carry guns. The gunsmith claim could also be a lie, however, which would give us two scum now. This is a pretty open and shut case. Lynch Lowell/Sprontalic, then SV/klebian.

[Glork]

Please vote Lowell/Sprontalic, they're scum. My other head thought it would be funny to claim scum since he doesn't have time for this game anymore, especially since someone seems to think we're scum. Cops are often considered to have guns when the gunsmith role is used, since RL cops usually do carry guns. The gunsmith claim could also be a lie, however, which would give us two scum now. This is a pretty open and shut case. Lynch Lowell/Sprontalic, then SV/klebian.

MoS is basically right/telling the truth.

When I came to post for the day, I realized that we had a guilty of some kind on us, and Gunsmith just hadn't occurred to me. I wondered if Kleb/Spec were paranoid or something, or if there were some other sanity shenanigans, but I honestly didn't see anybody believing us. And I really wasn't up for putting up the fight, and MoS didn't seem active at all recently. (Heck, we hadn't talked much beyond very early in Day 2.)

Instead, since I'd pretty much lost interest in the game, I claimed Mafia and decided to see who would jump on it the most. Obviously, the real Mafia would be most enthusiastic about our lynch; I figured the SK would be, too, since they would believe me and would want to eliminate the competition. (Really, if I were a member of the Mafia, I'd have claimed SK to force the SK/Vig/whatever to come out and counterclaim. It makes so much more sense than just claiming Mafia.) On the other hand, I think I overdid it a little with the slip-ups, and I made it far too easy to get myself "caught," so to speak.

Anyway, after a good telling-off from MoS, I suppose I can express the will to live once again. I still don't particularly care, and if we do end up getting lynched, I certainly won't be upset over it. This has been one of the spammiest, most unsual games I've ever been in, and it really lost my attention quickly. The fact that MoS seemed to disappear for a while in D2/D3 did very little to inspire my enthusiasm.

[Glork]

PS. I still want CES/MGM lynched/killed at some point, because I'm still utterly convinced that they are scum. But in light of our investigation choice, Lowell/Spront is obviously a more certain lynch. I'd be okay with either, really. I'm not sure I buy this whole "cult" thing. I kinda wonder if PJ/MBL are trying to stir something up to confuse and mislead the town. Heck of a lot easier to get the Gunsmith lynched than nightkilled, eh? Especially if there's a Nurse or a second Doc around.....

[Thok]

Vote Count:

Glork/MOS (2) (klebian/SV, CES/MGM)

klebian/SV (1) (TSS/Nightson)
Lowell/sprontalic (1) (Glork/MOS)

8 Alive means 5 to lynch

[petroleumjelly]

1.) I would suggest that nobody even bother to read Glork/MoS's posts. They are clearly scum who see an opportunity to live another day and will say whatever they have to in order to save their skins.

2.) As I have said before (and I will say again), Glork/MoS is still the correct lynch today. I am currently thinking they are mafia scum (and hence have at least one partner who can still kill), although it is possible they are SK (I find this unlikely by this point, however). This will still leave two nightkills (one Vig/SK and one Mafia) which can potentially crosskill, or hit cult. I consider both of those plusses.

3.)

THe mafia havent managed to nuke a single cult member to date, and we havent managed to lynch one. Either the 'cult' is very inactive in it's recruiting abilities, or we are very unlucky. 9 Deaths out of 17 players, that would make the cult so potentially big that it would be an all out Cult vs Mafia game. That doesn't appear to be the case.

I have gone over this already. If spec/kleb are cult, they would only have had

one successful recruitment

. How do people keep reading over this point? That would mean they were successful N1,

failed

N2 on Pooky/Adele (hence calling them scum the next day), and

failed

N3 on Glork/MoS (hence calling them scum the next day).

Once

again

, look at WoT Mafia. This seriously cannot be this difficult. Just look at the first page, and the nightkills. That game had 30-31 players (not all the players are on the first page, since some of them "disappeared"). The game ended with 7 players. 4 of them were cultists. About 23/24 players

died

, and the

town never once lynched cult, and not one cultist was ever nightkilled the entire game.

Two cultists living past three nights and three days, then, is quite possible so far as I am concerned.

[Nightson]

Wouldn't it be better to try and hit a cult leader and leave Glork for the SK/vig if it's necessecary?

[Zindaras]

Zindaras, MoS is Glrok.

Yes, I know. That's why I said I don't buy it.

As an aside, armlx/Zindaras was never a pair in this game, which is why I said it was an odd target.

If I was the least bit unsure about kleb/sv before this recent activity, the gunsmith claim removed just about the last speck of doubt.

The only question is what to do now. I think some number crunching is in order, and everyone should participate. The fundamental question is: does it make any sense to lynch cult right now instead of GlorkOs? My guess is no.

No. There's a chance of there being 3 Mafia left and no Cult. Not lynching Glork would be a horrible horrible move in that case.

If we lynch Mafia, we force the Mafia to attempt to hit Cult, as the Cult could clinch the game if they don't.

1.) You tried to downplay it until it was obvious I was not going to curl up and go away.

I mentioned straight away that any vig should claim.

Dude, trackers are clearly more common than gunsmiths. Gunsmiths aren't really common, but they definitely occur.

If you're so sure we have a cult and a vig, then why don't get the vig to claim?

Vig-->Cult=Ouch.

Also, Glork, thanks for making me giggle.

[petroleumjelly]

No. You have to understand that it's not even guaranteed there is a Cult at all, and this could just be MBL and I being overly paranoid. I would just rather have our bases covered, since we clearly have the opportunity to do so. Better safe than sorry, so far as I am concerned.

We lynch Glork/MoS. This does a number of things:

1.) The Mafia will have either 1 or 2 members left. It will be in their best interests to kill spec/kleb; and this would frankly have been the case whether or not we had this discussion in the first place. Either spec/kleb are Gunsmith (which means we did right by lynching Glork/MoS anyways, as it would definitely have been worse to have lynched a Gunsmith), or they are Cult (which does our lynching for us).

2.) The Vig/SK's best interest would also be served by trying to either kill any remaining mafia scum, or any likely cultists (or if somebody crosses the realm of being a likelihood in both categories). If they hit mafia, that will either eliminate the mafia group, or leave one left alive. If they hit Cult, then spec/kleb will also be dead, with the possibility of a final cultist roaming about (which will have been recruited that same night, N4).

In other words, all the scum will probably try to take each other tonight, which will work to our advantage. I would rather lynch a confirmed scum then a

possible

scum. The downside, obviously, is that

if

spec/kleb are Cult Leader, they will get one final night to attempt a recruitment. Either way, the town really can't afford to mislynch at this point, no matter which type of set-up we're dealing with.

[petroleumjelly]

^ My "no" was directed at Nightson, obviously. Zindie posted while I was still typing.

[Nightson]

Ahh, I see now, I hadn't fully accounted for the mafia needing to take out spec/kleb for a possible town role.

vote: Glork/MoS

[petroleumjelly]

And so Nightson, too, sees the light. Town should win this game simply because scum can't afford to leave other scums alive.

Vote: Glork/MoS

. They are now one from lynch. I think this discussion was fruitful; guess we'll see whether or not it was right tomorrow.

[Zindaras]

I want to talk to Skruffs before hammering. He's probably got some insights.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yay! Jelly has common sense! (This is a good thing.)

[ambic]

Vote Glork/Mastermind of Sin

Thats five. And Glork is right, this is an extremely spammy game. This day has definitely been the most enjoyable.

[Thok]

Final Vote Count:

Glork/MOS (5) (klebian/SV, CES/MGM, TSS/Nightson, PJ/MBL, ambic/RangeroftheNorth)

Lowell/sprontalic (1) (Glork/MOS)

Glork/MOS is lynched. I'll go PM Courk.

[Skruffs]

Hai guys.
Erp night. Sorry (have to post to get this thread in my watch list)
don't hate!

[Glork]

YAUS JESTER FTW!!