Committee Mafia - GAME OVER

[olio]

mod

, any word from elections?

[pablito]

I can't wait for al_ko's analysis coming up sometime this week. I think we have game already. I don't see this game going on further than D6 anymore.

[al_kohaulec]

I think a massclaim is good today as the only three unkowns are me, nightson, and mrbuddylee. And my speculation depends heavily on these two. I've got nothing to hide, so I'm willing to claim if we agree to this.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'd be fine with that.

[al_kohaulec]

So since it's really just us three who need to claim, what do you think? Put us all on a list, roll a 3 sided die to see who claims first, he chooses the next player to claim, and then the last player claims?

[al_kohaulec]

BTW, I want to get at least some of this out of the way soon, I'm going to be gone wednesday and thursday.

[pablito]

I agree with that plan. You three are the only "unclaimed" and I think I know which one(s) of you are scum, already, so I doubt that the claims will change my mind on youse.

I think the dice roll is the fairest thing to do so I'll get it started

1. al_kohaulec
2. MrBuddyLee
3. Nightson

Original Roll String: 1d3

1 3-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

[pablito]

Nightson, looks like you're first then.

[Yaw]

Ok, I know I've been busy (and there's still about a week left of this for me), but...why are we mass claiming today rather than tomorrow? With a clear lynch today, I think there has to be some justification for not holding it off.

Also, what's holding up our mayoral results?

[pablito]

We're unsure of which one of two targets is better to vig tonight rather than later. And two people have made it known that they certain that they already know who seems to be the most likely scum.

Unless we're sure of who we're vigging tonight, I think we oughta get more clarity on some of the unknowns.

But I'd also like to know more about the mayor results, but I think it's pretty much null since our mayoral candidates aren't huge lynch targets either.

[al_kohaulec]

I think I can help with figuring out who to lynch after the massclaim, there's only 3 of us unclaimed right now anyways.

Off topic, but am I the only one who sees MBL's avatar and this:

Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 9:17 pm Post subject: 1859

Just above everybod's post? Oh, and hte spot on MBL where his avatar should be is blank

[Mariyta]

Yeah, I don't want to go into this blind. Consider my vig as another lynch.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I don't even have half the votes in yet. Even if everyone votes for the same person, I still can't declare a winner.

[pablito]

Could you let us know who hasn't replicated their mayoral votes or perhaps PM those who didn't?

[al_kohaulec]

yes, send them a PM. It was a while before I realized I hadn't sent mine in when I thought I did.

[pablito]

al_ko, do you promise you're not scum, because if you're not I know who scum are.

Also, in the meanwhile, here's a safe discussion topic: do we think there are two three or four scum left?

[al_kohaulec]

Does anybody know where Nightson is?

I promise I'm not scum, I think I've got it narrowed down as to who the scum are, so we should have pretty close notes.

Are you counting our today's lynch in the scum number?

[pablito]

yeah, I'm counting all scum still alive at this point.

Meaning at least Sarcastro plus one, two or three others.

[pablito]

Mariyta, you said that N2 you believe that Yosarian2 was responsible for killing lordy. Then who did you target and why? And do you believe that extraneous circumstances affected the outcome of your night choice?

Also, what do you think about the fact that we had three NKs last night (N5), but that you were mayor-blocked? Or did you submit one of those kills and it accidentally get through? Or do you believe there's another vigilante-type person?

[pablito]

Time to list why this game is likely done soon:

(11/30)

2. Nightson (Replacing Someone)
3. Olio (Replacing FATty ACid)
8. Mariyta
10. Starkmoon (Replacing armlx)
12. MrBuddyLee
16. Thestatusquo (Replacing Vaughn)
20. al_kohaulec
21. Yaw
24. The Goat (Replacing NotForsaken (Replacing Blackberry))
26. pablito
28. Sarcastro

Claimed and night actions have confirmed (2): Mariyta, Yaw
Claimed and night actions likely confirm (1): pablito
Claimed and night actions present an unlikely case for anything but a scum pair (2): olio, the goat
_____________
Claimed parasite which he said was pro-town, but turned out to be neutral, but has said to be pro-town now (1): Vaughn/TSQ
Claimed neutral (1): armlx/starkmoon
Confirmed scum (1): Sarcastro
Unclaimed (3): Nightson, MBL, al_ko

On paper it looks like we have 5 nearly confirmed pro-town out of 11. That seems safe if we can reduce NKs. That means even if we mis-lynch/mis-vig we can still win by process of elimination.

By deduction, I may be able to take down that number.

PookyTheMagicalBear, Justyn Leontius, corrupted mafia thug, brains splattered Night 1
Kanaga, Wolfe Wallace, cop, sniped Night 1
AmeliaSlay, Maurine Halberton, doctor, beaten Night 1
Colonel Kurtz, Stephan Chandler, doctor, exploded Night 1
Rosso Carne, Orville Green, county sheriff, drawn and quartered Night 1
Bogre, Harmon Darien, vigilante, anvil'd Day 1
Masterchief, Curt Callahan, roleblocker, anvil'd Day 1
slaking_master, Zimri Jaasau, syndicate goon, lynched Day 1
lordy, Deonne Elvin, syndicate goon, rifled Night 2
Yosarian2, Val Parker, vigilante, bashed and slashed Night 2
Drummer, Harley Terrell, parasite, lynched Day 2
Max, Evelyn Arlette, inventor, closed down Night 3
petroleumjelly, Tyrik Shelby, doctor, pierced Night 3
Pie_Is_Good, Carolyn Shelby, sex object, collateral'd Night 3
rajrhcpfreak, Haydee Xanthe, syndicate goon, lynched Day 3
Coron, Isolde Xenia, doctor, brain dead Night 4
Eon (Replacing marc.six), Chloe Artanna, corrupted mafia thug, lynched Day 4
chamber, Almira Oldham, doctor, flipped over Night 5
mudbuck, Janice Ina, roleblocker, disposed of Night 5
Glork, Cymone Jossman, corrupted mafia thug, burned out Night 5

N1 - 5 kills
N2 - 2 kills
N3 - 2 kills
N4 - 1 kill
N5 - 3 kills

N1 - Mariyta claims Pooky, (four of the following five sources killed someone: thugs, goons, SK, Yos, Bogre)
N2 - Mariyta believes Yos killed lordy, someone else killed Yos then - seems like a lot of attacks may have been doc-protected for Yaw.
N3 - Mariyta vigs Vaughn. chamber protected Vaughn/TSQ. (two of three following sources killed someone: thugs, goons, SK). I think it's likely goons killed Max. It is likely Coron and other doctors protected Yaw.
N4 - Mariyta mayor-blocked. one of three following sources killed Coron: thugs, goons, SK. Others may have attacked a doc-protected Yaw or were role-blocked.
N5 - Mariyta mayor-blocked (right?). three sources successfully killed: thugs, goons, SK. If there were more, they may have tried to kill a doc-protected Yaw, but I find it highly unlikely anymore considering the low number of N2 kills. I think Sarc (the pyro) killed Glork, Glork wanted mudbuck dead because mudbuck was ruining his RB claim and was actually RBing him, and the SK killed chamber because the SK figured out he was a doctor.

I hypothesize there are three killing groups left. Six suspects left - I think we're at 50/50.

What does everyone think about having three killing groups left? Do you believe it's just two or could it be up to four?

[Mariyta]

Correct, I couldn't kill last night. But I can tonight.

I don't think we have 4. It is possible we have another vig, but considerring 2 are already dead, and we (or at least I) assume they were forced vigs, I am more apt to think it is an SK. Sarcastro is definately the lynch for today. We just need to decide who to vig tonight.

As per your questions, I submitted Lordy as my target that night. The town wanted me to kill him, I said I would. As I've said many times over, my vig is like an extra lynch for the town. I will not kill anyone of my own accord without getting the approval of the rest of the town. I do believe Yos was the only one responsible for the kill. I did not receive any information that I was blocked or anything, so why his went through and mine didn't, I have no idea.

I submitted no kill last night because I was already informed that it wouldn't work. As per your theory, we know Sarcastro has to be either a thug or goon. That would put that scum group at 4, indicating that the other group probably has 4 as well, so that's another scum. An SK would make sense as well. And there's our 3 kills.

[pablito]

Mariyta, any ideas on who you think should be vigged?

Also, do our replacements feel ready to chime in yet?

[Mariyta]

I would like to vig MBL.

[MrBuddyLee]

Please don't. I'm pro-town and not useless by any means.

[pablito]

vig starkmoon (formerly armlx).

I think it's safe to say that neutral-appearing roles are not worth keeping at this time. Especially when a neutral-role claims to be lynch-immune.

Now that I think about it, I've never heard of a lynch-immune neutral role. Sounds unique though. But I think it's best to eliminate this possible risk even though I'm not so sure that starkmoon is scum. But I think we need to take the opportunity to get rid of starkmoon while it's still possible.