NY 161: Overly-Posh Mafia (POSH WIN - NIGHT X)

[TheUnderachivers]

@Underarchers- You are at 7 votes. I wouldn't sweat it too much.

L-4 with no wagon even close to ours in size, and you think that we would be sweating?

My, my, whyever would we be doing that?

[TheUnderachivers]

Spoiler:

First, let's look at mollie's scum meta. In a recent game we played together, she replaced into a scum-team with me. One of the first things she said in the scum QT was her feelings on listing your read on a partner. She said the following:

awww, fuck it, rob next time you make a list of your reads keep in mind that scum almost always puts their scummates in the middle of their list, lol, listing is a tool to catch scum. they also almost always list their teammmates as null unless they are trying to get them lynched or they are confident in their skillz.

So mollie is extremely likely to list her partner as town/scum instead of null even when it doesn't make total sense to do so because she considers it an associative tell. This could potentially lead to her sounding forced when composing reads.

moziperson is obvconftown and has no idea how to act. also wagon speed. and look who was on it

This leads to a weird and forced read on Mozamis. Mollie lists him as "obvconftown". If Mozamis is ObvTown, then that suggests Mollie can point to specific posts that look like town or at least provide some good reasons for him being town. Instead, she simply can't.

your posts don't feel scummy to me. I like that you are questioning my town read even though I think you are being retarded.

I don't see how the absense of scumminess, which would mean null, turns into ObvConfTown. That doesn't compute for me. Note that the one actual reason she gives occurred AFTER she listed Mozamis as obvconftown.

moziperson is obvconftown and has no idea how to act

I'm flattered, but why I am "obvconftown"?
And, since I am town, why I would I want to "act"?

Mozamis' response to Mollie's original read on him sounded nervous to me. A townie wouldn't care exclusively about those who think they're town, I don't think. If they were going to ask for support for reads, I would think they would have done it earlier when people were forming the wagon on them. Scum wouldn't question a town read on them by someone other than a partner. Scum may question a town read on them by a partner if they thought their partner had slipped up and associated them. It could be distancing.

I should note that I'm questioning whether the last bit about Mozamis' response is confirmation bias on my part. It could be. Let me know if it doesn't look nervous in your opinion or that point is otherwise unfair.

Conclusion:

Vote
Unvote mollie

Wish I had a second vote to get Mozamis as well.

~Rob

Lol at mollie for giving moz a town read in 327.

@mollie, re 333 "moziperson is obvconftown and has no idea how to act. also wagon speed. and look who was on it" how was moz acting, and who on the wagon are you referring too? (I see in 335 u list penguin and hero as scum, yet hero has not voted for mozi....so one scummy person on the wagon makes you think mozi is town?) Also, just noticed the speed of the wagon is 4 votes at this time, lol...

Noting Moz's same questions to mollie in 385. Not sure what this means yet.

Followed by a terrible vote in 387 by moz for penguin

Majiffy and Hero's followup posts to maz are right along with my thinking. town points

@Moz, what specifically about PV's and Rob's case on penguin looked good to you?

@Vifam, what about moz's 399 did you specifically like?

If Moz flips scum, I would look at mollie (see above) and vifam (see 471 & 472).

@mollie, you say you like moz's questioning of your read, but that was AFTER you gave him a conftown read. What happened before that which made you give him that read. Also, you say ""act" as in behave not pretend." Does that mean that moz needs to behave, and not pretend, since earlier you said moz "has no idea how to act"

@moz's post 540, there is an ongoing game that I (and majiffy and PV and AJtheE) cannot talk about, but let's just say it would make sense if someone had fake vigged a claim in there which outted a real town vig in that one...all hypothetical of course. In other words, I could see why AJ would be concerned.

People I wouldn't mind seeing lynched today: Mollie, Moz, Om, Lord, Jacob, probably in that order

unvote Jacob
vote pirate mollie

Meh, maybe when analyzing in greater detail, I can make a better call, butyeah, these DO look pretty similar to my eyes atm. Then again, I can't actually see these very well 'til I hit submit, making side-by-side quite difficult.

[TheUnderachivers]

'Specially the bit 'bout Mollie forcing townreads.

[TheUnderachivers]

Oh, and for the record, am leaving for the night soon.
Might post in the QT later assuming quicktopic is actually working, but no more posting from me.

[TheUnderachivers]

its working now

[Vifam]

Don't really like how Vifam is more concerned with Matts town read on Hero than his read on his own slot.

I don't see how this is scummy

[I Am Innocent]

Picking up prod. Expect a catchup post in the next 24 hrs...most likely in the next 2, unless my wife wears me out after we get the kids to bed.

[Aj The Epic]

Underachiever, where have I defended Matt? I saw you use that as a point earlier, that's a lie. I haven't made ANY attempt to defend Matt.

[TheUnderachivers]

IAI's and Hero's same read on Mollie means that a read on them should be the same?

Its partly my fault for mis-wording the question,

I think

Mastin agrees (slightly? [or atleast understands where I'm coming from]) that the Mollie case from Hero and IAI are pretty similar. In my mind, if IAI is sheeping the case from Hero then Matt should have a similar read. Scum

usually

(unless its a bus/distance thing) attack town so if he thought Hero was scum then I think its a fair assumption that Matt thought Hero was attacking town. So IAI more or less sheeping Hero made me wonder why they were being treated differently. Scum often sheep cases so IAI sheeping the Hero case and Matt ignoring it seemed odd to me.

And then you and Vifam are all like "DON'T ASK MATT!!!"

[Vifam]

I have no idea what you mean by that

[Bitmap]

@Mod: Sorry, I gotta ask to replace out. Uni, etc.

[Vifam]

Bye

[Maestro]

Searching for a replacement for Bitmap.

[Lord Mhork]

Lord Mhork - unsure, could go either way. I liked his wot. and his observations of hero cos that is where my thoughts have been too. only thing I didn't like was his assumption that 1 of us has got to be scum. where do you people come up with these retarded theories, lol.

I don't like you, but I think it's just a general personality conflict.

More to the point, you should go back and read what I said. I didn't say that one of you had to be scum. I said if one of you were scum, the other was more or less confirmed town. Do you disagree with that?

Also, Mhork had 9 lynch candidates for today. Why am I suspicious but he is not?

You should read what I said. Where did I say I had 9 lynch candidates? You must have notice that part where I said that one or two of those nine players was likely scum, and then ignored the point where I step by step checked the votes and tossed them into 'prolly town' and 'prolly scum piles.' Did you mean to misrepresent me, or did you just not read what I wrote?

[I Am Innocent]

@Matt, please explain in 804 "IAI has been doing similar things to Mhork, with added on [crap]" Please explain the added on crap, as well as the similar things.

@mollie, re 806, you said in 741 "I haven't where to put my vote cos I am still trying to figure things out. usually when there is a dumb wagon on me I freeze. it is hard to play the game a defense perspective." To me that sounded like an excuse not to scumhunt. And when the wagon shrunk and you still need not put out scum reads, that solidified my read on you (along with your obvconftown of moz while everyone else was questioning him).

Holy cow, moz is defending me now...

bork's 811 is townie

Mollie's buddying to matt in 820 is noted.

Nice OMGUS by mollie in 870.

Jacob's 908 is bad.

penguin gets town points for 918

Jacob, welcome to my top 2.

moz gets town points for seeing thru Jacob's poor play (993)

ActionDan gets town points for the same reason (996)

Nero, was that you posting in 1002? Weren't you the one in the signup thread that had the bankable deadlines explained to you by the mod? If so, why do you appear to still not get it? "But you want to hurry up the day and go into 4 day deadlines were it'll be quicklynches and most likely mislynches"

Matt's play on page 41 is just getting bad. Well there is potential like 1012, but he never follows up on this stuff.

Page 42 and Matt is now talking meta. Weren't you the one dismissing that earlier in the game?

Drum roll please...mollie (finally) in 1052 "gonna post a list of my reads in a a bit" (not overly impressed by what I saw in 1054, but still we have something on record)

@chkflip, love to see the meta you are referring to in 1053

Dude, another crappy post (1058)

Jacob, your top 4 suspects ASAP

.

Penguin, falling in love with you in 1064 (please don't tell my wife)

Action Dan, the math is off in 1086. Conditional probabilities: .9 * .95 + .1 * .60 = .915. Lol, higher pct than he said of myself (.90)....still sure I'm the right lynch today Matt???

Interesting that Matt includes Jacob on his 1095 scum list. Let's test that theory:

unvote Mollie
vote Jacob

Thoughts on the Matt push for IAI wagon:

Matt is right, my wagon not growing is a bit shady. Knowing my alignment, I know that something else is up. My guess is that the Bankable hrs is something scum are trying to whittle away as quick as possible.

Also, 4 votes were thrown at me. All four coincidentally came from Lord's wagon, the shadiest being Jacob's. If Lord was really scum, I would think that some scum would be on the counterwagon (Mollies) and would have sheeped Matt. But none did. I believe Lord to be town because of this. It also makes me wary of Mollie.

It needs to be Mollie or Jacob today.

[MattP]

If people dont vote IAI after that post they're retarded

I was right

You can all suck my dick

That is all.

[MattP]

@Matt, please explain in 804 "IAI has been doing similar things to Mhork, with added on [crap]" Please explain the added on crap, as well as the similar things.

[BULLSHIT]

Matt's play on page 41 is just getting bad. Well there is potential like 1012, but he never follows up on this stuff.

Page 42 and Matt is now talking meta. Weren't you the one dismissing that earlier in the game?

[BULLSHIT]

Interesting that Matt includes Jacob on his 1095 scum list. Let's test that theory:

unvote Mollie
vote Jacob

Thoughts on the Matt push for IAI wagon:

Matt is right, my wagon not growing is a bit shady. Knowing my alignment, I know that something else is up. My guess is that the Bankable hrs is something scum are trying to whittle away as quick as possible.

[BULLSHIT]

Case closed.

[MattP]

I'd bet JS is town after that stupid-ass vote.

Moz, underachievers, and IAI FTW for right now

[Vifam]

What the hell did he mean by "knowing my alignment"

[Herobrine]

I'd bet JS is town after that stupid-ass vote.

Moz, underachievers, and IAI FTW for right now

I totally agree with the IAI case...but again, not today. People need to vote Underachiveres (someone who you yourself say is scum in the post I quoted) to end the day and bank the deadline. DO IT NOW.

[pirate mollie]

I don't like you, but I think it's just a general personality conflict.

hhhmmmm....

More to the point, you should go back and read what I said. I didn't say that one of you had to be scum. I said if one of you were scum, the other was more or less confirmed town. Do you disagree with that?

well since I know my own alignment and if hero flips scum then no, I don't

but if I flip town it does not mean that hero is scum although he has moved to unsure cos he has ceased interaction after a town read. what do you think of that.

[MattP]

If Nero is scum i would policy lynch you tomorrow

You're demented to be pushing the stupid fucking deadline catch

I'm lynching my strongest scumread and the longer you irritate me the more I want you gone so STFU and vote IAI if you think he's scum

[MattP]

Nero is not scum*

[Lord Mhork]

I don't like you, but I think it's just a general personality conflict.

hhhmmmm....

More to the point, you should go back and read what I said. I didn't say that one of you had to be scum. I said if one of you were scum, the other was more or less confirmed town. Do you disagree with that?

well since I know my own alignment and if hero flips scum then no, I don't

but if I flip town it does not mean that hero is scum although he has moved to unsure cos he has ceased interaction after a town read. what do you think of that.

You're being purposely dense and I don't like it. Where have I said that a town flip on one confirms the other as scum?

[TheUnderachivers]

vote:JS