Open 465 - Wot's... Uh the Deal? (Game Over! Town Win!)

[Majiffy]

Vote Count

ProHawk (L-2): Adam-12
Guile (L-2): Leviathan93
Adam-12 (L-2): ProHawk

Not Voting: - Mantisdreamz, Guile

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Day Three has begun. Deadline is Thursday, Jan 17th (I think?) at 3:00 PM EST

[leviathan93]

UNVOTE: ok. so this is a tough decision that I think needs to be made now rather than later. its between adam and hawk of who is scum. i don't know who though, but i feel that is the best bet of the matter...

[Adam-12]

Ok, so while I was doing some research into where Adam disappeared to during his hiatus, I was disappointed to see that he didn't have any other games that I could cross-reference with activity, what I did find, however was intriguing.

The title is: How to Win as Mafia: Calculated Inaction.

Spoiler:

So you've started a game. You say your role is mafia? Well congratulations, you probably just won. But here's a guide to help you win more easily. Always keep in mind, that playing as mafia is a game of waiting. Wait long enough, and the town will kill itself.

1. Do not call the strongest members of the town scum, rather pick on weaker but more neutral figures. If you pick on people that are too easy, you will eventually run out of valid scumreads, and if you only pick on the strongest members of the town, it will likely turn on you. Attack the people that can't defend themselves. Newbies are a good choice.
   
   
   
   Adam's Scum Claims:
   
   Shrimp (#107)
   Code, Guille, Mantis (#173) ((Post #230 removes Mantis from Scum))
   Mollie (#309)
   Bork (#512)
   Mala (#1249)
   
   Adam's main scum pushes D1 were Shrimp, Guille, and Mollie. Bork was a quick push with little scum-hunting, and Mala wasn't really a push. I will let you all decide who were the strongest and weakest contenders, but Shrimp was new, Guille wasn't a heavy poster (neutral) and Mollie was flailing.
   
   
   
   
2. Early on, post a lot, and frequently. Most people will subconsciously treat active players as town. Almost nobody will suspect you for this on its own.
   
   
   

   D1

   - 21 Days
   Posts D1 - 0-461 - 461 Posts
   

   Posts/Day1 - 21 posts/day

   
   

   D2

   - 6 Days
   Posts D2 - 461-485 - 25 Posts
   

   Posts/Day2 - 4 posts/day

   
   
   Because we didn't have nearly the same amount of time D2 as D1, I wanted to make a post/day comparison. I have never seen anyone post as much as Adam. He definately doesn't have the same vigor he did D1.
   
   
   
   
3. Call out lurkers. They are easy to lynch, but don't try to lynch them until later in the game. Their wagon will provide good escape later if you need it. Be sure to make this a long-term campaign. If you notice the flow go against your allies or your scum-calls begin to push the lurkers.
   
   
   
   
   First major post of calling out lurkers is #173, with small jabs at them later on.
   
   
   
   
   
4. Outline rough suspicion of your dumbest partner. Do not push their wagon, just list them as neutral-leaning-scum or something to that effect. Meanwhile, defend your other partner from significant attacks. This will separate your team in the minds of the town.
   
   
   
   Outlined Rough Suspicion and proceeded to pressure others. His vote for Bork Starts in Post #511, and is maintained until his next vote for Mollie in #798. His pressuring of Bork stops in Post #552, he didn't push the wagon, just let the vote sit.
   
   He didn't have another partner, so it doesn't apply.
   
   
   
   
5. Defend the strongest players of the town. Pick one in particular to defend excessively. If you die, this will tie you to them and allow your team to lynch them quickly. As a note, generally, if you build a meta for defending people you will do well in all your games.
   
   
   
   Adam made more than one post defending me, I would even say excessively. I am sure you remember, but if you don't I would be happy to quote them for you.
   
   
   
   
6. For lynch on the first day, push the second or third most popular lynch. Do not try to make your wagon fail, but hope that it does. After that, continue to push reads that are less likely to be lynched. If one of your reads becomes a major lynch though, lynch them. Do not back down.
   
   
   
   Adam's vote on Bork strikes me as a strong indicator of this play. Bork was the second most popular lynch.
   
   
   
   
7. If you notice someone acting scummy, and no one else has yet picked up on it, take the opportunity. If you lynch an unexpected person the next day reverts to earlier lynch prospects much of the time. Essentially the town loses a day.
   
   
   
   Adam's push on Angel, despite saying that he believed Shrimps town-slip fits nicely into this category.
   
   
   
   
8. Taper off your posting as you go. Do not suddenly disappear, just gradually reduce your rate of posting. Try to keep large but infrequent posts at first, but later shorter posts will do. You want to appear like you are losing interest in the game. You also want to have an excuse for dodging the nightkills. Living too long being too town will be problematic.
   
   
   
   Notice the posting frequency at the start of the game to now.
   
   
   
   
9. Attack players that do not know how to defend themselves properly. Start with a case that is factual, but weak. When the player overreacts and digs themselves deeper and deeper, you will have a good wagon to sit on. If it sees lynch, you have lynched someone that everyone agrees deserved it, and if it doesn't you have a plausible distraction from the main lynches.
   
   
   
   Mollie wasn't on Adam's push-agenda until he saw how much she was able to dig herself deeper and deeper.
   
   
   
   
10. Don't underestimate the power of subtle praise. "That's a great point" and "I didn't notice that" or even "I'm sheeping X, who is obv-town" helps building false confidence in townies. This will make the townie think you are town, and if they turn out to be wrong they get the blame and their confidence is shaken. It is generally good to leave the responsibility for the town's lynches on the town.
    
    
    
    Adam was full of praise for me D1. My Favorite - Lifetime Subscription
    
    
    
    
11. The town tends to believe that it ought to win. They are wrong, but you can take advantage of this. If someone has been on many of the major wagons, you have just found a free lynch target. Similarly, if there is someone that seems to be causing the town not to succeed, they are a good target. Generally, the mafia should be encouraging the idea that the town is being conned by their leaders.
    
    
    Post #1356 - "I think we are being played"
    

Notes are in green, I edited out the topics that weren't relevant to Adam's play. Feel free to read the whole post if you wish.

As I said before, I have it on good authority that he as used this post as research. The evidence in this game is more than coincidence that he is putting the advice to use. So did he use this research as scum or to find scum? The fact that he has incorporated 11 of the suggestions into his play here leads me to believe that he used it as scum in order to play an amazing scum-game.

This is interesting, but I am worried. I'll let Adam respond first, before I comment on this.

I think Hawk put alot of work into this but the idea that somehow as scum I need to study posts so I can properly form a strategy is just really out there. It is true that I deliberately laid back at the end of the day; I said who my lynch candidates where and decided to watch behavior.

[ProHawk]

You are a studious player Adam. I wouldn't put it past you.

[ProHawk]

So hey, what was the deal with you voting Angel right after she soft-claimed Watcher?

[Adam-12]

1) I didn't notice any soft claim
2) She wouldn't answer my question regarding her bizarre play at the end of D1

[leviathan93]

I wouldn't put it past you either adam being as studious as you are. however, i didn't notice the soft claim either so i give you points there. as well as the fact that hawk it WAS out there to do that whole post you did even it I think it was literally the nail on the head of adams activities. like a play by the book scum. and it literally was convincing to me how adam could be the perfect scum and the last one...it literally is between hawk and adam at the moment. THIS i want to make clear. as town, we have two shots at this. if we guess wrong. its lynch or lose and I think it will be obvious to everyone who the scum is once either hawk or adam is gone and mantis is left. even if i'm dead and its guille, mantis and adam or hawk.

[ProHawk]

There is no way Mantis survives, as she is confirmed town

[ProHawk]

Oh, and its just like scum to deny knowing about the claim, you just randomly killed Angel to find she was the Watcher right? I find it hard to believe that you (Adam) didn't see the claim, you were the one attacking Angel/following her posts.

[guille2015]

There is no way Mantis survives, as she is confirmed town

I actually expected her to survive. She was the prime target for the watcher. I wouldn't expect Angel to have watched her both nights.

[ProHawk]

Everyone needs to re-read this string of posts.

Spoiler: String of Posts RE:Claim

Sorry for the double post.. i honestly don't know how that was happened.

Mantis, I am open to consider if you can actually tell me why i should believe you
In what way you're the Tracker and confirmed townie. If you tell me that then i ll hint something about me. Its an exciting news for you.

In what way you're the Tracker and confirmed townie. If you tell me that then i ll hint something about mxe. Its an exciting news for you.

oh yea, what was the exciting news?

Mantis, I am open to consider if you can actually tell me why i should believe you
In what way you're the Tracker and confirmed townie. If you tell me that then i ll hint something about me. Its an exciting news for you.

well....
i told you before (or other people have told you), that if i was not tracker, someone else would step up and claim that i was indeed lying. nobody has done that. and, there is no reason for anyone NOT TO, at this point. being that there is only one scum left. someone could counter claim me, and then expose me as scum.

so the fact that no one has counterclaimed right now, and in day 1 - WHEN EVERYONE HAD THE CHANCE TO CLAIM 'not tracker', goes to show that there is not a counterclaim.

I'm a bit baffled that we are discussing this.


but if you are town - i think you are very much wrong about Adam.
What are your opinions on Guille, Thor and Prohawk? and if you had to choose a scum from them, which one would it be?

Why would you think that there is only one more scum, I was hoping there are at least two scums.
about Guille, Thor and Prohawk. I will need to re-look at them, and this time i won't be rushing but let my vote stay on you though i believe you for now.
And about Adam, I am tired of his questions. He just doesn't stop. that's no good

And about me. I thought you would have guessed already. Anyways i am one of those people in town you were looking for.

Ok, I'm really fed up with this.

I read Hawk's post and I find it quite town.

How about my vote stays here until you tell me when "later" you learned that Levi's vote killed Bork?

Unvote, Vote Angel

In what way you're the Tracker and confirmed townie. If you tell me that then i ll hint something about me. Its an exciting news for you.

Neutral about whom? Mantis
What is your reason?

No, mantis is confirmed town unless anyone else says they are the Tracker.
No one else is.
Hence - she is confirmed town.
The rest of your play at the moment is what leaves me neutral. Please stop it and just scumhunt.

Okay, so new plan.

Any tracker needs to counterclaim *today* and also right now.
Otherwise they are scum if they claim at any other time.
That gives us a confirmed town in Mantis - huzzah.

She can keep looking for the Watcher, because functionally every person she investigates she'll learn to help us to root out any fake Watcher claims later.

Vote: Guille

I tend to expect scum to have bussed or fled the wagon - Guille looks like a busser due to location.
I could do Arc too for ducking the wagon. ::shrug::
I think Levi is probably town, because I don't think both scum buddied me.

So you are taking the bussing route. That would leave Levi, Adam, and Guille.

Adam voted to tie up Mala-town and Bork-scum.
Guille voted to place Bork-scum at L-1.
Levi hammer voted Bork-scum.

I pretty much defended Bork to the end, calling for people to lynch Mala-town. Scum had me practically doing all of the dirty work for them.
So...
Why would the remaining scum, when Mala was the lead wagon, give momentum to the Bork-Wagon (Adam)?
Or
Why would the scum put the Bork-Scum wagon in the lead when he could have easily put Mala-town in the lead (Guille)?
Or
Why would scum hammer Bork-scum when he could have voted Mala-town to tie up both wagons and potentially stall the game into a no-lynch (Levi)?

To gain town-cred you say? I am seeing way too much risk here without enough reward. At least to me until Guille voted, Bork did not seem like he was going down in a ball of flames. While I agree that your choice (Guille) is the most likely candidate out of the three, I fully believe that scum will be found in the non-bussing category, ala you, me, and Angel.

Your predecessor was acting like scum before she replaced out most likely because your slot is scum. You are obviously a well seasoned mafia-man which is why you wiggled out of the lynch D1, but I feel like the evidence against you is overwhelming in this case.

It is a definite possibility that thor is scum. i'm not saying this for sure but it is my gut right now. I do have an uneasy feel about guille but honestly its because of his beginning play as a lurker that bugs me the most and I feel he hasn't added much other then really long explanations every once in a while. yes, they are kind of helpful but still. it may be because he is trying to just get by. i don't know. honestly my hammer of bork was luck. I chose bork because I felt mala was innocent. even though I had pretty much absolutely no read on bork, and to find out he is scum scared the bejeebies out of me. to me, that either means I suck at judging people, catching scum tells or what. if that is the case then i am almost shit out of luck. however, i was confident in my mala as town read and her death unfortunately confirms that.
adam is the new mala for me this day. he is my confirmed town. so am I. for me this leaves 5. mantis claims tracker so this leaves 4. thor, angel, hawk, guille. my gut tells me to believe angel. this leaves 3. thor, hawk, guille. hawk seems helpful, but pushy. could be like someone who doesn't care about how they look which to me is a town tell. this is only a light read that could be wrong however. but ill go with it for the time being. this leaves 2. thor and guille. I am not impressed with guille at the moment and i believe scum to be most likely in one of those two. therefore my vote goes too. VOTE: guille

Adam, its clear you, Mantis, and Thor were reading Angel's posts, I just skipped over them as I was tunneling Thor, and it looks like Levi skipped over them too. Guille was just... gone as per usual.

[ProHawk]

Survives in the future tense Guille, not past tense. I don't really think Angel had much clue as to how important her role actually was.

[guille2015]

Survives in the future tense Guille, not past tense. I don't really think Angel had much clue as to how important her role actually was.

Yeah, true that. I figured the same!

[guille2015]

I will be VLA until January 10th. I will try to be up to date throughout my vacation as I will be able to check the internet. It really depends on whether my wife is annoyed by it or not.

[Mantisdreamz]

Survives in the future tense Guille, not past tense. I don't really think Angel had much clue as to how important her role actually was.

No I don't think so either.

Guille you asked me if I tracked angel. I did and was just checking to see if her claim was real. She watched Adam, but that doesn't mean anything now.

Whats interesting is guille, it seems you really didn't see that angel made that claim... and that's the only reason scum did go for her.

[Mantisdreamz]

Post 1920 kind of confirms that u didn't know she claimed.
Maybe not confirm, but at least looks convincingly genuine.

[Mantisdreamz]

Adam have you tricked us all this time?

[leviathan93]

as I said. if he has. GO ADAM! but seriously. he would need to be lynched because of it...

[leviathan93]

Since its Adam or hawk this time around for me. I guess my vote is this. VOTE: adam

[Adam-12]

Sorry I am sick with a fever.

I feel I am being set up here with all of that big deal about that thread and I am certain that Hawk must be scum, again, because I don't think Levi or Guille are, as neither of them bused Bork.

I don't have much else to say other than Hawk needs to be the lynch today and the game should end at that point.

If not, I believe LYLO will be Hawk, Levi, Guille. We have to be certain of what we are doing today because there is no doubt in my mind that Hawk will try to manipulate a win in LYLO as he is doing here today.

I have noticed his switch from "Vote me tomorrow as long as we vote Thor today" (yesterday) to "Vote Adam today" with this massive ott post about some other thread on this site.

I think we need to lynch Hawk and the game will end.

[leviathan93]

either way I think the scum is between you and hawk. honestly to me. hawk seems more scummy then you are but he does have is weird convincing point that has me really kind of convinced. and it was you that convinced me that guille was town when I really thought him scummy...so that seems like a town thing. I JUST DON"T KNOW AND AM REALLY CONFUSED AND MY HEAD HURTS AT THIS SITUATION!

[ProHawk]

Adam, you're almost right. I had originally thought that scum was in the non-bussing category from D1 (Thor, Hawk, Angel), but I believe that with Thor's lynch being town, as well as Angel's death being town that scum will be found in the bussing category (Adam, Levi, Guille).

The biggest issue is you went right along with it, no questions asked. Also, it was "Vote me today as long as you vote Thor tomorrow" not the other way around.

Being sick sucks, but we have plenty of time to let you get over it so you can actually make a convincing case. Your defense about your play has been lack-luster at best.

[Mantisdreamz]

and there was the fact that Adam seemed a bit frustrated after the lynch. He said that in general, bork should have been able to claim. Which is true. But i wonder if the frustration of losing his scum partner was translated into that post.

either way, i'm nearly 100% certain it's not guille. After post 1920, you can see that he DID NOT know that Arcangel had 'soft' claimed watcher.


Agree with Prohawk about allowing you to make a proper case, Adam - i hope you feel better soon.

[guille2015]

Let's not vote yet. I want to go through Adams ISO. I think he is at L-1 and I have limited access so it will take a bit.

In the mean time. Hawk, did you just now realize that scum was in the busser category?

[Majiffy]

OH GOD COULD THIS PAGE MOVE ANY FUCKING SLOWER.