Mafia in La-La Land (Game over!)

[petapan]

i don't see why you wouldn't try to lynch someone that would confirm you as town if they flip scum and i want to know why you scumread nacho - scumreading seastorm i understand but seastorm isn't here anymore

[Empking]

I wouldn't mind a 4nx claim honestly.

[Jarvis]

All 4nx is doing is stalling hard.

[N]

Deadlines is in like 5 days, so we shouldn't waste too much time waiting for his claim.

[DeasVail]

What do you mean?

[petapan]

effortposting my draft from earlier

think most of the dream theory stuff is dumb and kind of nonsense but i do have a thought that the oddness with today's dream is either nacho lying, which would be a really really dumb thing, or that the game itself has some sort of auto-balancing mechanic - not mod-influenced, just that with a limited number of scum left, the dreams only repeat information in order to avoid scum losing in some sort of pseudo-dethy way. i don't think discussing this at length is helpful but that's the assumption i'm working with and i want to make it known.

regardless the info from the dreams is true, completely independent of the alignment of the people claiming them. so pv and greygnarl are clear and i'm not going to bother reading them for this. this also means that the dreams claimed are likely unaltered, which has me wanting to think it's a town-tell because it seems stupid as hell to give the town accurate information as scum but i've seen people do stupid as hell things as scum so i hesitate there

ugh I was going to say I think N is town then i reread him and his one major scumread was rach, his effortposts stink, his anxiety vote today sucks, and I can't remember for the god damn life of me what struck me as town about him other than interactions and his opening post

jarvis i still think is town he's kind of annoying but i'm not sure why people actually suspect him? feels like he's legit trying to scumhunt etc no great way to explain it although i have no idea why he's not following up on his suspicion of me from yesterday

staeg is literally a bunch of white noise and nothing, the timing of him moving his vote from rach to KoC is terrible, nothing aside from the dream claim is town about him and i'd still probably lynch him

deasvail comes across as

sounding

town in his posts but i don't really have anything substantive there, his read of KoC early game was pretty damn odd

seastormjt was a POS and fishy as hell with the timing of her votes/posts, nacho is a lot better but i have to admit i'm paranoidto a degree - still generally seems to be looking at the game insightfully and i have a soft spot for people who suspect me

empking is empking, but i generally thought shiidaji was town he aggressively called out KoC and i just overall liked his posts although this one is a little bit weird as is him townreading me but i probably wouldn't vote him today

4nx, what bugs me about him but i have trouble explaining is that most of his votes seem to come with very little

why

attached to them, and when it is there it reads very surface, not like genuine analysis and it's stupid as hell for me to be trying to meta him off of one game but i feel like he was a lot more analytical in abarat - i'll do some legwork to confirm this before i vote but given that i don't townread him vs the other 2 people i'm pretty sure i'm gonna vote him

[petapan]

biggest thing that bugs me on a reread is how he clings hard to the konowa vote but never goes beyond "this looks like he's setting up connections between these players" (which later proved to be invalid) and not talking about the person he was voting. granted jarvis did a similar tunnelvision thing so maybe i'm a stupid fucker but here it just lacks real conviction

[4nxi3ty]

I have explained why I am not giving unnecessary scumreads.

Grey's content has been null but he is town because Bitmap's reactions were very town. Staeg is town because you said so.

And so ends the stalling.

Really Jarvis? What advantage do you gain from holding on to that?

What advantage does anyone gain from me not holding onto that? No need for me to explain townreads at this point, no need to influence the night kill by giving any more reads than necessary.

one scumread now. that is the deal take it or leave it.

but if you think I'm jarvis's partner, then why waste so much time on me as opposed to talking to everyone else...?

I already tried that once when I wanted people to talk about jarvis, it didn't take. people are too blinded by apathy and confirmation bias to listen to me.

(btw this post is an awesomely subtle nudging of my wagon despite you saying my lynch is bad.)

i don't see why you wouldn't try to lynch someone that would confirm you as town if they flip scum and i want to know why you scumread nacho - scumreading seastorm i understand but seastorm isn't here anymore

huh? I am trying to lynch someone who will confirm 4 people. (its a shame, PoE would be incredibly strong tomorrow with a jarvis flip)

nacho's replace in does seem like his is putting a lot of effort into the game, but his wall and vca feels like overcompensation. plus he never follows up on the conclusions he reaches in the vca or on the comments he made yesterday about the dream list. Then his push on you today feels like busy work so he doesn't have to take a significant stance on me or jarvis.

[greygnarl]

V/la till tomorrow afternoon

[petapan]

nope not buying it

VOTE: 4nxi3ty

[petapan]

i mean if he thinks i'm scum he obviously thinks you're town and this is stupid as hell for me to say but there are valid reasons to suspect me atp - i'm going to be suspicious at this point of people who don't suspect me at all, and to say it's 'busywork' like his reasoning is completely implausible is uhh what

[4nxi3ty]

sigh you have an incredibly low opinion of your own play this game

his reasoning sounds logical, but it doesn't fit in with how he cleared you from not being rach's buddy with vca.

also if you take note of how the day has gone he is content to sit back and let my lynch happen. If he really wanted to lynch one of his scumreads I would expect him to put more effort into defending me and forming a counterwagon on you or jarvis. The fact that he keeps his vote on you when there is absolutely zero support for your lynch instead of changing to jarvis is major indication of this.

[DeasVail]

4nx, can you claim?

[4nxi3ty]

vt

[petapan]

sigh you have an incredibly low opinion of your own play this game

can you blame me? i've not been exactly on-point this game

i dunno man like

i'll go back and read him but i'm really not feeling what you are saying

UNVOTE:

unvoting so no one steals the hammer

[DeasVail]

Wait peta, why are the dreams true regardless of the dreamer's alignment?

[petapan]

because nacho and staeg are claiming matching information that includes them in the dreams

meaning that even if one is scum, the information about who the scumz could be is still true and if they're both scum it would still meet the conditions

and right now either nacho is a lying liar that will get exposed immediately, oor i'm think there's possibly some-autobalancing mechanic for when there's only 2 scumz left so that they don't get dethy'd by dreams where he just receives an amalgam of previous dreaminfo. that wouldn't be 'mod-influenced' but rather determined by the ruleset.

we'll see it's just a sillytheory but regardless, we have 2 pools with 1 scum each in 'em and PV and greygnarl are as good as clear

[Nachomamma8]

Going V/LA for a little while (hopefully more limited than vacation), but I should have the big post in before deadline. Will try to get down a few thoughts before I leave since deadline is so close, but don't really have much time to work with here.

4nx, I really don't know what you're expecting from me here. Yes VCA says that Rach and peta probably aren't scum together, but I sort of gave up on that when it didn't have the great results that I figured it would be. I don't quite remember the specifics, but when I return, I will go back and dig them up for you. You talk about confirmation bias and things pointing to people not listen to your case, but even when I've talked about peta with you, you've just dismissed my case. You say that you didn't mind peta protecting Rach because you thought he was just trying not to lynch a claimed PR, but there's no reason for him to not just out and say that as opposed to trying to bring things back to dreams. Playing loose doesn't mean shit because plenty of people can play loose as scum, so...?
also the whole "if you were town, you would defend me and vote jarvis" thing is bad and please never do something like that again.

peta, would you say you've been putting a lot of depth behind your analysis? because I don't think you've had much depth on any of your scumreads this game, although I do think you've had a couple good townreads.

so basically scumhunting in my group is stupid and i'm going to vote N because he is scum
you should join

Unvote, Vote: N

[4nxi3ty]

not feeling a N lynch.

getting deja vu from yesterday, where KoC pushed a weaker player in PMyst

Just look at how rach slides onto the PM, KoC, and Konowa wagons to see how scummy she is; She is doing the same thing N today as well.

[Nachomamma8]

a little more time, more in depth posting on peta and N.

peta:
peta didn't really have any strong reads Day 1, and I didn't think he made an actual effort in order to develop stronger reads. There was also the manho vote, which was pretty strange in that he saw a scummy post by manho, then goes back to check his meta, then finds that his meta doesn't make him scum, but votes him anyways. I don't see the purpose of checking someone's meta if you're going to vote him anyways, and it makes it look like he was just trying to create a thought process that looked townish. Then there's the PM vote which was set up with "yeah, I don't see how PM is scum, he's null to me" and "yeah I see how PM gets attacked because he gets attacked for posting a lot" then ends up following KoC's "even if he is town, he is useless" reasoning, which is strange to me, considering he seemed to care about why PM actually was scum and not just PM, but then just dropped it completely and followed along.

day 2, there's the KoC vote, which I thought was pretty cool because of the whole "I'm just sheeping townreads on this one", which means that he wouldn't really get towncred for making a vote like that, but he later sneaks off the wagon onto Bitmap and jumps back on only because he thought KoC was a better lynch than Rach even though Rach hadn't done shit, which is another ":/" moment now that Rach has flipped scum PR.

After that, there was the flash konowa lynch which is enough of a shitshow where it doesn't count for shit, and then a bunch of bouncing inbetween 4nx and things and then an interesting interaction with N in #1259, #1261, #1264. It's the first strong push peta really has on anyone, but it's mostly due to them being a useless piece of shit and the promise that he will hammer him whenever he reaches L-1, but not really anything beyond that. It's unlike anything he's posted for the entire game and it makes me want to call it distancing because that would make so much sense, but it's also possible peta was just honestly frustrated with N and his lip regardless of alignment, so just ging to point this out and leave it here.

Then there's this:

i mean my problem here is tonally i read N as town where rachmarie is super scummy but circumstantially has interactions suggesting she might be town, strategically though i don't think she's a great lynch at all based on the dreams. neither is likely to ever be of any value to this game whatsoever.

so i'm stuck here being fat and useless because because i'm too afraid to vote either of them

which happens after peta defends Rach against 4nxi3ty for a little while, but is a setup for her to live until she appears in a dream which would allow her to get a lot of actions without still having to do shit. i don't think that he would be so brazen to defend both of his partners the same way like that which makes me lean town on N again, but I honestly wouldn't put him past it at this point. Then after this, he begins to prod at Rach, but never follows up on it, which again is weird and looks like mild distancing.

his effort post is cool and mostly correct, but it's nothing spectacular and postures for a vote on the biggest wagon and doesn't really have a second big read which is still sort of crap

so either peta is scum and got away with a ton of bullshit or he is town and has a ton of unfortunate coincidences

[Nachomamma8]

and the buddying thing is BAD because my scumbuddy in some newbie game buddied back to me because I was buddying so hard to him and then I was lynched Day 1 and then they were like "oh, no way in hell he's scum because no scum buddies to each other so hard"

but i think you're town for being so damn stubborn
it's pretty important that you don't get lynched today as scum, so I'd expect you to be a bit more accommodating
and I've decided that I don't want to vote N today because that read is lazy and staeg is still a big black hold of nothing
so back to square 1

Unvote, Vote: petapan

[4nxi3ty]

staeg's dream is the only list that jarvis doesn't appear on. Assuming I am correct about jarvis and the dream is accurate, we can clear deas, n, pv, and greygnarl once jarvis is confirmed scum.

nacho, is this a correct analysis?

[petapan]

peta, would you say you've been putting a lot of depth behind your analysis? because I don't think you've had much depth on any of your scumreads this game, although I do think you've had a couple good townreads.

i rarely do

trying to be deeply analytical rarely works out for me as re-reading tends to gray my own reads, even looking through isos is kind of painful. open to criticism but i can't much help it

[DeasVail]

I'm not sure about the dreams being confirmed regardless of alignment thing, because if scum choose them, I think it could be how it is with only one of the dreams being correct. (Please tell me if I'm missing something though, as I'm often quite derpy with these things).

I was thinking Staeg would be a decent lynch because if he's scum then Woo! and we know not to necessarily trust his dream, and if he's town then it's confirmed and we narrow down the other dream too. This is not valid if the dreams are confirmed anyway though.

In other news, I'm ok with a 4nx lynch, but I don't really find him (or anyone else actually) particularly scummy. Well, except N, but then there's stuff that makes me think he's town so ugh.

I'd probably prefer 4nx over Peta though.

[petapan]

a little more time, more in depth posting on peta and N.

peta:
peta didn't really have any strong reads Day 1, and I didn't think he made an actual effort in order to develop stronger reads. There was also the manho vote, which was pretty strange in that he saw a scummy post by manho, then goes back to check his meta, then finds that his meta doesn't make him scum, but votes him anyways. I don't see the purpose of checking someone's meta if you're going to vote him anyways, and it makes it look like he was just trying to create a thought process that looked townish. Then there's the PM vote which was set up with "yeah, I don't see how PM is scum, he's null to me" and "yeah I see how PM gets attacked because he gets attacked for posting a lot" then ends up following KoC's "even if he is town, he is useless" reasoning, which is strange to me, considering he seemed to care about why PM actually was scum and not just PM, but then just dropped it completely and followed along.

day 2, there's the KoC vote, which I thought was pretty cool because of the whole "I'm just sheeping townreads on this one", which means that he wouldn't really get towncred for making a vote like that, but he later sneaks off the wagon onto Bitmap and jumps back on only because he thought KoC was a better lynch than Rach even though Rach hadn't done shit, which is another ":/" moment now that Rach has flipped scum PR.

After that, there was the flash konowa lynch which is enough of a shitshow where it doesn't count for shit, and then a bunch of bouncing inbetween 4nx and things and then an interesting interaction with N in #1259, #1261, #1264. It's the first strong push peta really has on anyone, but it's mostly due to them being a useless piece of shit and the promise that he will hammer him whenever he reaches L-1, but not really anything beyond that. It's unlike anything he's posted for the entire game and it makes me want to call it distancing because that would make so much sense, but it's also possible peta was just honestly frustrated with N and his lip regardless of alignment, so just ging to point this out and leave it here.

Then there's this:

i mean my problem here is tonally i read N as town where rachmarie is super scummy but circumstantially has interactions suggesting she might be town, strategically though i don't think she's a great lynch at all based on the dreams. neither is likely to ever be of any value to this game whatsoever.

so i'm stuck here being fat and useless because because i'm too afraid to vote either of them

which happens after peta defends Rach against 4nxi3ty for a little while, but is a setup for her to live until she appears in a dream which would allow her to get a lot of actions without still having to do shit. i don't think that he would be so brazen to defend both of his partners the same way like that which makes me lean town on N again, but I honestly wouldn't put him past it at this point. Then after this, he begins to prod at Rach, but never follows up on it, which again is weird and looks like mild distancing.

his effort post is cool and mostly correct, but it's nothing spectacular and postures for a vote on the biggest wagon and doesn't really have a second big read which is still sort of crap

so either peta is scum and got away with a ton of bullshit or he is town and has a ton of unfortunate coincidences

not going to quote-stripe this but do feel the need to respond buz you're off on a few things

i found manho's meta null at best - it wasn't like it cleared him of being scum, just that in general he posted that way, so I had to go back to reading the post itself. granted i could fake that as scum but to do so in such a wishy-washy manner? nah.

pretty sure i was reluctant to vote PMysterious for a long time, because he's a dumb kid what gets lynched a lot. the reason i eventually decided to vote him was because of the "i'll get you for this" post because why would you threaten revenge on someone who dayvigged you as town - then he said "no i would have reacted differently if i knew it was fake" which ensued i kept my vote on him because jesus christ he failed a reaction test as town. pretty sure i let myself get talked into that one.

bitmap vote was - he was a player in the dream and i reread and got a feeling based on him being kind of a whitenoise poster. i felt the way the rach wagon sprung up, it was a wagon to lynch the inactive/lurky player over a player with legitimate scumtells - and it was. it just happened to be on scum. i underestimated the willingness of scum to bus. i always do. but. i could see myself acting with regard to that wagon the same way as scum, because i know i have before - bussing the goon in order to save the scum PR who's starting to pick up heat. i don't know how to defend myself when it's something i

would

have done as scum, but i'm

not scum

- makes me feel like a stupid newbie because i know the truth but can't prove it

me being pissed off at N is a rage-tell, all there is too it. he shattered my shell of cool aloofness with his dickery. dw about the associations, they're a waste of time.

here's the thing though i've been reading 4nx as scum for a while, but i was sort of half-unsure if i thought staeg was scum and therefore should not trust his dream but in general 4nx isn't putting much analysis into his posts this game, i remember him doing that and townreading him fairly confidently in abarat 2, and here he's just flat. i think i explained that already. i can't find any recent scum meta of his to compare, his games from 2011 are like reading a completely different person

if you put a gun to my head and asked me who is scum from the notme pool, i'd say N or staeg (depending on flip) but like, everyone there has reasons for me to see them as town and reasons to see them as scum, it's very hard to prioritize. sorry?