Open 319: Jungle Republic - Day 5: Calamity *GAME OVER*

[DonJosh]

BADBADBADBADBAD

Huh?

Think. There was a wagon on a Townie day 1. Why the hell

wouldn't

scum be on the wagon?

[blindfaeth]

It is only my second game on this site, we don't use that term at all on my native site. We never call people scum at all its just "mafia" >.> So if I do not understand it correctly it would be awesome if you explained it correctly?

[Thor665]

@blindfaeth - how about you answer #2 and then I'll explain my sig to you; to restate my questions;

1. Nowhere in my sig does it suggest that it's keeping track of scum who do that.

2. If you DID believe that it was only a list about scum who did that...why does it matter that I didn't call out havingfitz on it?

[BBmolla]

Quick question for everyone:
Do you think scum-CM would imply scum-Thor? And vise versa?
Cause CM is buddying Thor pretty hard.

Seems scum would go out of their way to pin this on Thor. Yes, he said he would take the blame if Ray flipped town but that does not make Thor scum IMO. It just made him wrong, like 6 other people were including me (Yes it took 7 to lynch, not just Thor)

Thor is town

CM here displays that he thinks Thor is undoubtedly town which is wierd in itself. This could be because CM-Scum knows Thor-Town is town, or because he's trying to make his scum brother seem more town... or something. I don't think that would be a smart move which is why I'm raising my eyebrow at their relationship.

And ISOing Thor you find only a few CM mentions:
The first is Thor responding to CM about DK and is rather unimportant.

Very interested as to why, in 27 posts Ray has yet to put his vote anywhere, seems overly cautious to me and could be scum trying not to draw attention to themselves.

I agree with you Thor.

Wait...you're not Thor, *I'm* Thor...but you're almost quoting Thor's case! In any case, Thor is fething brilliant, so you should probably back him up since you think exactly like him and may be as awesome as him too (well, not really, but there's always hope).

I think this would imply it if CM pops scum. Generally I find scum and town do not think alike. Which is another reason I suspect Thor/CM, because their opinion on blind differs heavily compared to mine.

What are your thoughts on CMPunk (sorry if you have posted it already).

Posted them today, consider him a likely scumspect, consider him in the less certain pool of three. Would vote, but prefer a vote on Blindfaeth.

@Thor: I'd like you to go more in depth about why you think he's a likely scumspect.

I think CM-Town would imply Thor-Town a little bit, but I don't know if CM-Scum would imply Thor-Scum.
Oh, and I think CM-Scum implies DK-Town. Possibly.

Thoughts?

Also, another question for those not voting CM, what makes CM townier than the person you are currently voting?

[Thor665]

@Thor: I'd like you to go more in depth about why you think he's a likely scumspect.

To suss it out clearly - I already said this in my first post of the day when I described the wagon and the chances of scum on it. There were two three person groups - he was in one of them, hence he is a scumspect. That's really the beginning and the end of my scum read on him.

I think CM-Town would imply Thor-Town a little bit, but I don't know if CM-Scum would imply Thor-Scum.
Oh, and I think CM-Scum implies DK-Town. Possibly.

Thoughts?

This is a multi-scum game.

Also, another question for those not voting CM, what makes CM townier than the person you are currently voting?

Because blindfaeth is in a three person group with two players I consider pretty likely town - thus dramatically increasing his chance to be scum from that group as compared to CM who is in with Fool and DK in a derptastic newbie/scum/wtf playstyle sludge fest that I'm hoping I don't actually have to try to figure out.

[TheFool]

TheFool, you think a 50% chance of lynching scum isn't good?

No, and I'm beginning to think I misspoke in that post. I just disagree that we "must" lynch someone on the wagon.

Think. There was a wagon on a Townie day 1. Why the hell wouldn't scum be on the wagon?

To stay away from a mislynch and keep their hands clean?

Do you think that all five scum were in on the lynch?

Also, another question for those not voting CM, what makes CM townier than the person you are currently voting?

I think the sheeping and generic reads in CM's play is just coming from a newer player's perspective, and it looks like genuine scumhunting to me as a gut read.

There were two three person groups - he was in one of them, hence he is a scumspect.

Sorry if this is totally obvious, but what's the distinction with those groupings? I'm not sure how you derived them.

[Thor665]

@The Fool - quite frankly, I just split the wagon in half.

Some scum would want to get on early to a wagon they saw as possibly gaining speed, and both scum teams would have been fine supporting that wagon. This is the first half of the wagon.
After some scum get on, other scum from their team would want some other people to show support for the wagon and then might snark in towards the end to finish pushing it through - these would be the tail end of the wagon.
Two groups, probably at least 1 scum in each set of three.

There's also scum off the wagon, but those are a little harder to predict where they were lurking until you get a couple more flips.

[TheFool]

Because blindfaeth is in a three person group with two players I consider pretty likely town

meaning

DonJosh, blindfaeth, DeityKabuto

but

I was never super enthused on DK town - and his presence as a counter wagon to town when before that I thought he was counter wagon to scum does tend to adjust ones beliefs. Derpy-doo.

seems contrary. And even without that, I'm not sure I see the logic in assuming that at least one of the last three votes

must

be scum.

There's also scum off the wagon, but those are a little harder to predict where they were lurking until you get a couple more flips.

There's also three of them; it's just as concise a group :P

[DeityKabuto]

@The Fool - quite frankly, I just split the wagon in half.

Some scum would want to get on early to a wagon they saw as possibly gaining speed, and both scum teams would have been fine supporting that wagon. This is the first half of the wagon.
After some scum get on, other scum from their team would want some other people to show support for the wagon and then might snark in towards the end to finish pushing it through - these would be the tail end of the wagon.
Two groups, probably at least 1 scum in each set of three.

There's also scum off the wagon, but those are a little harder to predict where they were lurking until you get a couple more flips.

lmao. You are dividing the wagons into two groups when you are the main driver who got everyone to sheep them, but nonetheless scum were on that wagon.

[whispersilk]

I will have a real post up by the end of the day.

[DeityKabuto]

I will have a real post up by the end of the day.

So this one's a fake?

[Thor665]

seems contrary. And even without that, I'm not sure I see the logic in assuming that at least one of the last three votes

must

be scum.

1. Despite misgivings he's still more town looking than you or CM - sorry, deal with it.
2. Not scum in the last three votes of a Day 1 wagon on town with 5 scum available? Really? Where the heck were the scum then, 2-3 in the first 4 votes and then 2-3 in the three votes off the wagon? Derp-derp-herp, amirite?

There's also three of them; it's just as concise a group

There's not three of them voting for one person - as we get more flips the motives of those three will become more clear. As stands, with everyone voting the same, you can apply direct tells of how they got on the wagon and whether other people there look more or less town than other voters - plus the positional tells.

If you'd like to explain how my method works with the three off the wagon, please do so, I'd be happy to vote in a better group than I am currently.

[Thor665]

lmao. You are dividing the wagons into two groups when you are the main driver who got everyone to sheep them, but nonetheless scum were on that wagon.

Wagon contained 7 of 10 alive players.
There are 5 scum alive.
Derp - there were scum on the wagon, derp-derp-duuuuh.

[DeityKabuto]

lmao. You are dividing the wagons into two groups when you are the main driver who got everyone to sheep them, but nonetheless scum were on that wagon.

Wagon contained 7 of 10 alive players.
There are 5 scum alive.
Derp - there were scum on the wagon, derp-derp-duuuuh.

This is your counter-case?

Are you saying you're not among those scum, or are you trying to divert attention?

[Thor665]

1. Counter case? I wasn't aware you'd even managed a case, all you did was ask me if there were scum on the wagon and I proved there were.
2. Everyone is saying they aren't among the scum. Yes, I am saying I'm not scum - derp-herp-herp-drool.
3. Divert attention from what? The super strong cases everyone else is whipping out while saying we should lynch off the wagon?

You asked me if scum was on the wagon - I specifically showed you that *yes* they were. In fact, it's possible that every scum was on the wagon and it's *impossible* for there not to be scum on the wagon. Therefore lynching from the wagon is fething brilliant, and I'm even going a step further and showing logical reasoning of where the scum are and in what numbers.

[Shadowmod]

Thor665 (2/6) - DeityKabuto , blindfaeth , havingfitz blindfaeth (2/6) - Thor665 , TheFool CMPunk (4/6) - Sky , BBmolla , DonJosh , blindfaeth DeityKabuto (1/6) - CMPunk Not Voting (1/10): whispersilk With 10 Players alive it requires 6 Votes to lynch / 5 to nolynch. Deadline will be reached on Monday August 29th 2011, 6:00 p.m. Forum Time [UTC-6].

(expired on 2011-08-29 18:00:00)

till Day 2 Deadline

Still no vote changes... But a new page, so here you are. And no prods due, keep it this way!

[Sky]

The Punk/Thor combo could be a possibility, but due to the lack of posts from CMPunk, it's hard to really gauge. CMPunk, why do you find Thor town?

[blindfaeth]

K so since his role hasn't been revealed yet how can you add him to the list of people that were scum that said that to you? Perhaps I'm misunderstanding >.>

Mmmm? You're seriously misunderstanding something.

1. Nowhere in my sig does it suggest that it's keeping track of scum who do that.

2. If you DID believe that it was only a list about scum who did that...why does it matter that I didn't call out havingfitz on it?

The fact that you have that counter in your quote is an indication that you dislike that particularly weak method of suspecting someone used against you. Or at least thats how I interpreted it. So I thought you'd go out of your way to show some irritation with it, does that make sense?

I'm also not really following the 2 groups of 3 thing Thor is talking about. I understand it but I don't know where he's pulling the numbers from as far as its likely that so many jumped on at the beginning and so many jumped on at the end. They could have been all of the first votes as far as we know especially if they are on different teams?

[Thor665]

[1]

The fact that you have that counter in your quote is an indication that you dislike that particularly weak method of suspecting someone used against you. Or at least thats how I interpreted it. So I thought you'd go out of your way to show some irritation with it, does that make sense?

[2]

I'm also not really following the 2 groups of 3 thing Thor is talking about. I understand it but I don't know where he's pulling the numbers from as far as its likely that so many jumped on at the beginning and so many jumped on at the end. They could have been all of the first votes as far as we know especially if they are on different teams?

1. Ay-yi-yi. Let me give a rundown - then I'll want you to clarify it because the rundown *can't* be correct if you're town.

You : Look at Thor's sig, then look at this post of fitz's. Why didn't Thor call him out on that? Total scumtell (of some vague and unclear scumtell method)!

Me: I did call him out on it.

You: Ah-ha! But how can you call him out on it if he hasn't flipped as scum yet?

Thor:

Then we have your current commentary where you're basically asking me why I didn't call him out on it...which really is best answered by "I did, and I already said I did." But let's get to the core of your belief and why it's scummy;

A. Thor didn't call out havingfitz on this point - that's scummy.
B. Presuming Thor did call him out (not that we'll admit as much) it was scummy of Thor to call him out on it before knowing what alignment havingfitz would flip.

So, basically - if I called him out it was scummy, and if I didn't call him out it was scummy, and when I asked you to explain how both could be true you basically circled around and started attacking me again for not calling him out (which I did). So...again, please explain this - most importantly please explain where I'm wrong, because you look super scummy right now and need rope.

2. Experience tells us this doesn't happen except extremely rarely. So, for the same reason I don't have 'Eaten by Shark' insurance I don't think that scum magically deviated from the expected norm of behavior.

[blindfaeth]

except you made it clear that you called him out after he'd done it twice? >.>

[whispersilk]

Ok, this daft Thor signature thing: Thor, I believe you have a counter in your signature that displays how many times someone has said to you "you're better than this" (referring to your game play) and has suspected you of being scum because they all think you are some Mafia God and should play every game perfectly, when in reality, you are not perfect, and as your beard is clearly not magical, you will make mistakes, and you will drop scum tells and get lynched, or maybe you're just a townie having an off day. Whatever.

Anyway, the counter in your signature means nothing when unaccompanied by another counter which shows how many times those people have been right.

Right?

In short: Thor's signature can not be used to determine his guilt or innocence.

[Thor665]

@blindfaeth - answer the question. You're still circling around while not making clear what you believe and are saying too diametrically opposite things and basically hoping no one notices.

@whisper - That might actually be funny - but I'd note that they were never "right" because even if I was scum I'd be playing a good enough scum game they shouldn't have caught me anyway. That's part of the joke behind my annoyance at that being used as a tell against me - it never actually makes sense.

Also, you're still the only player not voting, who are your current top two scumreads and why?

[TheFool]

1. Despite misgivings he's still more town looking than you or CM - sorry, deal with it.
2. Not scum in the last three votes of a Day 1 wagon on town with 5 scum available? Really? Where the heck were the scum then, 2-3 in the first 4 votes and then 2-3 in the three votes off the wagon? Derp-derp-herp, amirite?

Yeah, I get that, but it still seems like a jump from that to "blindfaeth is dramatically scummier than CMPunk because he was next to townier people on the wagon".

Also, I'm not sure how it's so derp-derp-herp to assume that the votes were scattered non-uniformly.

And yeah, the signiture thing is pretty pointless.

[DonJosh]

1. Despite misgivings he's still more town looking than you or CM - sorry, deal with it.
2. Not scum in the last three votes of a Day 1 wagon on town with 5 scum available? Really? Where the heck were the scum then, 2-3 in the first 4 votes and then 2-3 in the three votes off the wagon? Derp-derp-herp, amirite?

Yeah, I get that, but it still seems like a jump from that to "blindfaeth is dramatically scummier than CMPunk because he was next to townier people on the wagon".

Also, I'm not sure how it's so derp-derp-herp to assume that the votes were scattered non-uniformly.

And yeah, the signiture thing is pretty pointless.

This guy goes up a notch on my scum list every post...

[havingfitz]

Still v/LA but the comments about my ~"Thor is better than this" are ridiculous. I was obviously trying to pad Thor's signature metric and after he made his comment to the effect that only one per person per game would be counted, I was/am done with it. Ie, it was a joke.