Double-Dip Mafia, Game Over

[Empking]

Yes. Crazy isn't scum.

I'm planning on voting empking and/or tar. Any problems?

Well I'm town and I'm more confident of the quicklyncher than Tar.

[Crazy]

I hammered Quilford because I thought he was scum, knew that nothing would change my mind, and I wanted to lynch him before anyone had a chance to unvote.

Why is that a problem?

[Empking]

I hammered Quilford because I thought he was scum, knew that nothing would change my mind, and I wanted to lynch him before anyone had a chance to unvote.

Why is that a problem?

Because you din't give anyone else a chance to work out who (if nor Quilford) was the scum.

[Crazy]

I'm planning on voting empking and/or tar. Any problems?

Whatever you do, don't vote two people.

I gotta think over what the most likely scum-pairings are before I vote.

Because you din't give anyone else a chance to work out who (if nor Quilford) was the scum.

To me, getting Quilford lynched was more important than being fair and democratic. I didn't want to risk a townie changing their mind or a distancing scum to jump off Quilford's wagon.

You can argue against my actions, I suppose, but I don't understand why that would necessarily make me scum. I've explained why, as town, that I felt the need to quickhammer Quilford. Can you accept that, or not? If not, then why would the quickhammer benefit me if I was scum?

[Empking]

You can argue against my actions, I suppose, but I don't understand why that would necessarily make me scum. I've explained why, as town, that I felt the need to quickhammer Quilford. Can you accept that, or not? If not, then why would the quickhammer benefit me if I was scum?

Is this a serious question? Why would lynching town help you?

[Crazy]

What I mean is, if I was scum, why would it especially benefit me to hammer Quilford

then

, as opposed to waiting? The only people in danger of being lynched were Quilford and you, and obviously from your perspective, you're town, right?

[Amrun]

Crazy only makes sense as scum with empkingn, but empking doesn't make sense as scum with crazy.

Ergo, Crazy is town.

Once again, two of tar, imaginality, and empking are scum. Which two? Still don't know.

No need to rush. I'll take my time deciding.

P-edit: exactly, because he is scumz.

[Empking]

What I mean is, if I was scum, why would it especially benefit me to hammer Quilford

then

, as opposed to waiting? The only people in danger of being lynched were Quilford and you, and obviously from your perspective, you're town, right?

Everyone was in danger of lynch. It could've changed like

that

[Crazy]

I suppose so, but you're already arguing the point that it's

possible

for me to be scum. Of course anything's possible, but why is it

likely

that I'm scum? Why is your argument for why Crazy-scum would hammer Quilford better than my argument for why Crazy-town did hammer Quilford?

[Amrun]

Yeah you and quil were at l-1. Unlikely.

[Empking]

I suppose so, but you're already arguing the point that it's

possible

for me to be scum. Of course anything's possible, but why is it

likely

that I'm scum? Why is your argument for why Crazy-scum would hammer Quilford better than my argument for why Crazy-town did hammer Quilford?

Town does not quickhammer on day 5.
Scum does if they can get away with it.

If we say that you have a 0% chance of being town. Then you must be scum.

[Amrun]

Scott Brosius' biggest scumread besides Quil was empking with a side of imaginality; very minor on Crazy and me.

Hey scum

I was probably a better bet gj

Our reads weren't that different so idk what the deciding factor was for scum between us; we were the only two kills that SHOULD have been considered, for any smart scumteam.

So what was that deciding factor? Smalls' slot was bad before scott so it was conceivable to leave it alive.

I feel like if I could figure this out, I'd solve the puzzle.

I guess it could be a small townpoint for tar. Maybe. Or it could be wifom. :/

P-edit: No.

[imaginality]

I'm not at all happy with Crazy's quick-hammer. There's obvious scum benefit to cutting the day short and hammering a townie. It would be bold for scum to hammer like that considering the other quick-hammerers this game (kunkstar and DGB) both got lynched. I'm going to meta him and see how he plays as scum.

Empking and Crazy could be distancing/bussing scum, I think. I'm wary of how Empking only commented on Crazy so far - for example:

@Empking

, what happened to this theory?

I'm really sure that one of Tar and Quil is scum

[Crazy]

I'll be V/LA tomorrow. Looking forward to imag and Tar's input on this scenario.

I got the same hunch that it's Empking/imag. Amrun is town barring some weird gambit where she's bussing Empking. If she was scum with Tar or imag, then she would have assisted Empking in lynching me and won. I also have a moderate town read on Tar just because he changes his mind a lot, which I consider a town-tell. But I have to think more on everything.

[imaginality]

Edit: That should read 'But it would be bold...'

[Amrun]

I had the same thoughts as imaginality but was too lazy to post them. Townpoints to him. :/

[Empking]

I'm not at all happy with Crazy's quick-hammer. There's obvious scum benefit to cutting the day short and hammering a townie. It would be bold for scum to hammer like that considering the other quick-hammerers this game (kunkstar and DGB) both got lynched. I'm going to meta him and see how he plays as scum.

Empking and Crazy could be distancing/bussing scum, I think. I'm wary of how Empking only commented on Crazy so far - for example:

@Empking

, what happened to this theory?

I'm really sure that one of Tar and Quil is scum

New information came too light. I think I mentioned earlier that I'm still suspicious of Tar just not to the same degree as Crazy.

I would like to mention that Crazy went from quickhammerring to (in part) protect me from getting lynched to declaring me scum.

That

isn't simply reacting to new circumstances but evidence of an evil plan.

[Tarhalindur]

Mod: Moderate V/LA until Wednesday.

I'll be frank - I don't really feel that I need to think much today, since yesterday a) fits perfectly with the read on the game I gave late yesterday (Amrun/Quil or Empking/Crazy as only logical scumteams) and b) disproves one of the possible scumteams.

Scum are Empking and Crazy (outside shot Amrun and Crazy, but Empking is FAR more likely given that Amrun hates my player slot in a way Empking doesn't). No way in HELL is Crazy town after that quickhammer - I'm willing to bet the game on that read - and Empking is his only logical partner. Imaginality's play has been obviously town ever since I challenged him on it Day 4. Amrun's being an utter and complete IDIOT, but Quilford flipping town pretty much clears her because I still can't see any other logical Amrun partners. (Also, her choice of players to look at in endgame reads town to me - the scumhunting looks genuine.)

Moreover, I'm pretty sure at this point that I can identify the scum endgame EXACTLY - scum are counting on Amrun deciding on me over Empking at endgame. THAT'S why Crazy quickhammered Quilford - because doing so would a) shut down the possibility of an Empking lynch D4 and b) set up an endgame where Amrun would have to choose between voting me and voting scum, either D6 or (more likely) D7 (Amrun/Tar/Empking endgame).

So, my priority is to convince Amrun that I am town.

HoS: Crazy

, will upgrade to vote (and Lock On) once we are ready for day to end.

[imaginality]

I didn't garner much from looking for Crazy's scum games, although I did enjoy Crazy's win in this effortless game - superbly effortless. (Replace in during night, win during night, 0 posts in thread.)

Mini 699 suggests Crazy wouldn't be scared to do something bold/risky as scum though. In Crazy's own words (from the 'Your Worst Performance Ever' thread):

I got a really really cool semi-bastardly role, a Mafia Godfather that would flip Vanilla Town when he was lynched. Instead of doing the logical thing and just acting like Vanilla Town, I decided to do an absurd fake-claim. When 3 people claimed miller Day 1, I made a not-so-hidden "breadcrumb" that hinted that I was also a miller, or as I later changed it, a "miller-like" role. I think I changed my mind about exactly what I wanted to claim several times.

My eventual role-claim on Day 3 was that I was a Kleptomaniac that would be forced to steal something from another player each night (which would also roleblock them, I think) and then I would be revealed as whatever that person's role was when I died. That got me lynched, and I flipped Vanilla Town, but everyone knew I was scum anyway. If that wasn't bad enough, I used my role to confirm one of my scumbuddies which inevitably got her lynched the following day.

So I can see him quick-hammering as scum rather than being afraid to draw attention onto him.


@Amrun: Why do you feel Empking doesn't make sense as scum with Crazy?
And Tarhalindur-Crazy too for that matter - Tar defended Crazy pretty strongly on replacing in, and arguably saved him from being lynched that day (Crazy was L-1 at that point).


@Crazy: What do you mean by "Amrun is town barring some weird gambit where she's bussing Empking. If she was scum with Tar or imag, then she would have assisted Empking in lynching me and won" - are you talking about today? (If so, I think it's a bit weak to say she's town just for not auto-leaping on your wagon straightaway. I lean town on her anyhow but not for that reason.)

[Amrun]

I admit that I'm less confident about Crazy than I once was, and I was pissed about the quickhammer, but why would partners immediately go for each other's lynch in a lylo or potential lylo situation?

Tar, you have some convincing to do.

[petroleumjelly]

Day Six Vote Count #1

~ Nobody Voting ~

With

5

alive, it takes

3

to lynch. Deadline is August 27 at 5:00 PM PDT.

Not Voting - 5 - Amrun, Crazy, Empking, imaginality, Tarhalindur

[imaginality]

Here's something I've noticed about how we stand at the moment.

Amrun wants to vote Empking or Tarhalindur.
Crazy thinks Empking and I are scumbuddies.
I think Crazy-Empking is likeliest.
Tarhalindur also thinks it's Crazy-Empking.

Everyone (except Empking) has Empking among their top two suspects.

This means either Empking is town and two townies are wrong in their suspicions of him, or he's scum and someone is distancing from him.

If Empking's town

, what would that mean? Based on current suspicions:

For me Amrun-Tarhalindur or Crazy-Tarhalindur are the next most likely pairings (I think Crazy-scum makes sense with Empking, or possibly Tarhalindur, but not with Amrun).
Amrun based on 1631 says me - Tarhalindur is the next most likely pairing.
Crazy based on 1638 (where he rules out Amrun - Tarhalindur and Amrun - me) says me - Tarhalindur is next most likely pairing, as well.
Empking suspects Crazy and Tarhalindur.
Tarhalindur's second choice pairing is Amrun-Crazy.

So,

if Empking's town, everyone except Tarhalindur suspects Tarhalindur.

As above, for us to be wrong about Tarhalindur, it would take two townies to be wrong.

So what?

Well, to me this suggests,

it could be good for us to make Empking and Tarhalindur cross-vote

.*

Then, if neither gets quicklynched, we've proven one of them must be scum. That then improves our lynch choice - we can choose from just two players, of whom one is

definitely

scum, and possibly both are.
What are the risks of a quicklynch? Well, we can only get quicklynched if they're

both town

- which can only be the case if two townies are wrong about Empking-scum, and two townies are wrong about Empking-town implying Tarhalindur-scum. To me, that seems like a reasonable level of confidence for a lylo situation.


*Maybe it's a bit early to propose this, since our suspicions can still change, obviously. But anyhow, I'd be interested to hear people's thoughts about this plan.

[Amrun]

Interesting observation, but what makes you think I can be scum with Tar? I've been riding that slot's case all game.

I'm worried about this proposition because the more I think about it, the more I see a achance of Crazy-imag and that would be game over.

[Empking]

Yeah I think the best thing we can do now is lynch Crazy.

[Amrun]

I'm not ready to vote. I need a couple of days to review some things.