Brightest Day Mafia, Part 1 - GAME OVER

[Mr Subliminal]

vezok, did you receive a ring?

[Kast]

I don't know how you can call someone retarded when he singlehandedly got Toog-scum lynched.

On a fake investigation result, that he carelessly based off of Toog posting "lolwut? /anywhoconfirmandwhatnot", that could have been just as dead wrong as his dead wrong read on Toast. And that caused several townies to wrongly suspect Toast. A lucky fool is no less a fool.

Hold on what is going on with this statement. First, what does martyr syndrom mean to you in context of this game? Second, the fact that you acknowledge someone could be a ballsy townie but you are willing to lynch them anyones is not a town mindset. Thirldy, from the progression of actions nikanor jokingly (?) claimed a SK result on toasty, toasty over-reacted and then claimed JK, and then nikanor argued that he was probably a scum jailkeeper. He didn't fake a result on someone he thought was a mafia jailkeeper, he faked a result on someone who after several actions transpired he now thinkis is a mafia jailkeeper.

Not sure what you're also talking about with keeping mafia alive longer and lulling the town into anything. This post is disingenious.

FOS: KAST

Martyr syndrome refers to town reluctance to take action after once failing to take such action. This is rooted in behavioral theory, often referred to as the Endowment Effect. The term was a pretty common term where I learned mafia, with the name deriving from the most common occurrence when a scum player sets up a false proposition

i.e. lynch me then you'll know I'm telling the truth

, the town fails to act on it, then later assumes it is true despite the fact that it was never proven.

I feel like this is mostly a waste of time since we're already in a martyr syndrome, but since several peopel seem to think Nik's gambit is smart play:

Spoiler: why Nik as town requires Nik to be a retard

Assumption: Nik is town.

Nik initiated his read on Toog in post 56. At this time, Toog had posted exactly once in post 42. His entirety of his post read "lolwut? /anywhoconfirmandwhatnot".

No sane, rational player forms a strong enough read on that alone to risk recklessly lynching a possible townie. It may have made sense as a joke vote, but not as a false claim. He also argued strongly that it wasn't a joke investigation, even after Friend called it a joke.

In light of the fact that it was a fake cop claim, this was carelessness that could have easily resulted in two townie deaths if he

hadn't

gotten lucky on his read.

Post 337 of Day 1 he argues with others including Mastin and claims Toast is TOWN, and continues that maintain that point several times in the next ~100 posts, then...in post 498takes another complete reversal asking anyone to vig Toast. This indicates (And is consistent with) Nik not knowing Toast's affiliation, and certainly not having enough confidence to win.

Day 2 start, he sees a post that he thinks might mean Toast is an SK. So he fakes a result that, if believed, would indicate we should leave Toast alive for one night, and if he doesn't make a townie directed kill, then we should lynch Toast on Day 3. Except that if Toast is town, then he can't make an SK kill, and would be lynched on Day 3. And if Toast is mafia, then he can keep quiet and go along with the plan, get an extra free night of mafia actions, and have as much or more of a chance of surviving as a townie Toast would have.

With a play that has such terrible results for town if Nik is wrong on his bet, he damn well better be sure he is right. Except he wasn't sure. His play has been about as smart as playing russian roulette, and then opting to take another turn.

And we know he's wrong. If not for his potential mason status, I'd be convinced he's scum. As is, the only explanation is incompetence.

Oh, and while I'm at it, I'm going to vote: Andy, with understanding that I'm quite willing to lynch cult if someone actually makes a good case.

How does this even make sense? If someone is acting anti-town and scummy, you'll only place a vote down on them if you can get them to configure to a view where they are cult?

Do you not read posts in context?

Anyway, I agree that it would be

best to lynch cult

. I'm not sure I buy into the theories on who the cultists are. I think WLC is more likely cult than Apok, but going through my notes I can't find anything specific to indicate why I have that thought. I may have internalized some of NPIAU's arguments.

I think

the most obvscum

right now

is Andy

,

and

that

he is

most likely

mafia

, next most likely an ADD townie, and unlikely SK or cult.

I clearly stated my preference to lynch cult over mafia, but as I didn't see any merit to the arguments against WLC and Apok as cult, I instead voted the most obvious mafia member, Andy.

[Kast]

@CJ: How is this not obvious? Yes, I thought he was town. Then he claimed a result on me that was 100% impossible to have. So yeah, now I don't even remotely trust him and think he's scum. Common, logical sense.

Toast, for Nik to be scum, Friend, muffin, and hiplop would have to be scum as well, and that doesn't seem too plausible.

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity _{- Hanlon's razor}

Incidentally, going through Andy's posts, he seems awfully close to CJ.

BTW CJ:

Why in the nine hells are you voting Nikanor just because of a stupid gambit? He's pretty much confirmed town.

Flailing is not the word I use to describe people I consider confirmed town.

Ifyou read that statement

in context

, you'll notice the full statment Apok made was,

-Kast's twin:

Why in the nine hells are you voting Nikanor just because of a stupid gambit? He's pretty much confirmed town.

That wasn't addressed to you, it was addressed to me. Please try to read in context. You get distorted and completely wacky interpretations when you do that.

[WeyounsLastClone]

Anyways, WLC has been just so under-the-radar that his play works from a CL mindset. If you read his ISO it's basically just wagoning and trying to look town by questioning the WL stuff.

I'm always an under-the-radar player. I guess the the lack of me posting that makes you think I'm cult then, rather than anything I actually did post. I really don't get how you can be so vehement about me not being town-aligned. Also, why pick me out, and not Peregrine who has even less posts than I do? Peregrine is saying I need to post more, and answer him, but I already did so in post #906.

I guess either scum or cult is trying to push me because they guess I'm an easy lynch.

Lastly, didn't get any ring. Mr. Subliminal, why would you think I'd get one? My character isn't one of the white lanterns. Do you want to know who received just to confirm who is non-cult, or is there more to it. What was your brilliant plan, how did you fuck it up, and how can you salvage it? Unless we can be sure the plan works, can you give us any indication we can trust you? Sorry I sound really paranoid, but when we started claiming our choices, Mr. Subliminal was one of the few who did not want to provide info, but now he's demanding information for some plan that might or might not work.

[Mr Subliminal]

Entity claim retracted.
hiplop, splain.

[hiplop]

last day phase I got A pm about white lantern stuff. I thought you triggered that.

[Mr Subliminal]

Even though I said that I sent them out at the beginning of this Day phase...

Anywho, WLC or Apok?

[Kast]

Entity claim retracted.

Does this mean you

don't

have a fix to your potential game-breaking plan?

[ToastyToast]

Toast, for Nik to be scum, Friend, muffin, and hiplop would have to be scum as well, and that doesn't seem too plausible.

Yeah, I get it. I was very pissed, as I have said repeatedly.
However, 1) They are still very unclear as to what they are. Muffin saying its safe to assume that they're all town but not explicitly saying such is odd. I can think of a few other possibilities that would cause them to think this way, however.
2) I was in a game with Nikanor in which the scum-team fake-claimed masons and won. So yeah, the connection worries me a lot.

[hiplop]

Even though I said that I sent them out at the beginning of this Day phase...

Anywho, WLC or Apok?

I think I just got confused

eh Id prefer vezok more than anyone still

[ToastyToast]

Even though I said that I sent them out at the beginning of this Day phase...
Anywho, WLC or Apok?

I think I just got confused
eh Id prefer vezok more than anyone still

Was this message special and game related? Like, was it just something role-related or something that causes you to believe another player had targeted you?

[Mr Subliminal]

Does this mean you don't have a fix to your potential game-breaking plan?

Yes, we're too dumb, so we're going with retraction rather than admit that we're wrong.

Ok.

Let's get some things clear here, since there's a lot of gambitting being done and some people are losing track of what should be the basics.

Our Entity claim was a gambit. Ignore it.

The following things are all true:

Nikanor is 100% mod-confirmed town. This isn't even in question. Asking about it will just get you laughed at.
hiplop doesn't need to explain anything as we asked in #1079, as I understand it and will explain it to my other head.

@Nikanor:

I (although not necessarily my other head) don't agree with your "Toasty is flailing" argument. Toasty's like 98% town, not for any confirmed shenanigans, but just from sheer play.

Vezokpiraka is probably town.

We have no opinion, good or bad, on Apokalyptica or WLC and are willing to see how the wagons on those form.

[ToastyToast]

@Subliminal: What do you think hiplop's response means?

[hiplop]

Was this message special and game related? Like, was it just something role-related or something that causes you to believe another player had targeted you?

Yeah, I can't see dana sending it unless something happened, which is why I believed sub

[Mr Subliminal]

@Subliminal: What do you think hiplop's response means?

hiplop is town. We understand the source of his confusion. He doesn't need to explain anything.

[Mr Subliminal]

What was your brilliant plan, how did you fuck it up, and how can you salvage it? Unless we can be sure the plan works, can you give us any indication we can trust you? Sorry I sound really paranoid, but when we started claiming our choices, Mr. Subliminal was one of the few who did not want to provide info, but now he's demanding information for some plan that might or might not work.

Not answering questions about the gambit. If you think we're scum for it, vote us.

You trust us based on whether you think we're town or not, through this neat little thing called "Scumhunting." Maybe look at our play, think for yourself.

One of the reasons we picked you was because you simply don't have a lot of content, and what content you have isn't very good. From our point of view, you've only voted town (ooba + ourselves), and your vote on us is pretty weak: you fencesit, saying "it does make sense," but vote us as you ask us questions rather than ask us questions and then vote us depending on the answer.

[GhostWriter]

My problem with WLC is that MrS's Entity claim was fairly obviously fake, due mostly to the fact that it's too early in the timeline for that. Yet WLC seems to try to discredit the White Lanterns. In conjunction with Ooba's train of thought yesterday, I'm really feeling like WLC is indeed the CR.

[WeyounsLastClone]

@GW, Maybe then I'm just stupid, or not reading closely enough, but at first I thought Mr. S claim was real.

If you think we're scum for it, vote us.

Exactly what I'm doing right now.
Unless you have provable results, fact is you were lying. Without, up til now at least, a good town reason. I'm not a big fan of the so-called 'gambits', that's why I also don't really like Nikanor's behavior in this game.

@GW, I was not discrediting White Lanterns per se. I had my doubts by Mr. S claiming, and corresponding statement/assumption that people responding to his 'sending out rings' would be inherently town (or at least non-cult). Also, what exactly in Ooba's train of thought makes you feel I'm CR?

[Nikanor]

Hey Kast2 I know it probably trips your thirteen-year-old ego to come into a forum of strangers as a temporary replacement and start calling people retards but I'd appreciate if you would stop. tia.

[GhostWriter]

Also, what exactly in Ooba's train of thought makes you feel I'm CR?

That post is too long to quote, so I'll link it instead.

[Friend]

We have so many confirmed town in this game that it's just a matter of finding the CL.

[ToastyToast]

@WLC: There's a difference b/w faking a guilty and asking people if they received a PM.

[tanstalas]

@Tans: How so? Besides, its not like dana would say "HEY GUSY YOU A JAILKEEPER BUT IT ONLY WORKS SOMETIMES"

Waiting for clarification from mod on something.

OK, ignore this. Got my clarification from the mod.

Why isn't WLC dead yet?

[Kast]

Nik: I'm sorry. I did go overboard. I got frustrated with what is very clearly senseless play, and while it doesn't validate my language, I assumed from the prolific labeling of

idiot/stupid/dumbass

during Day 1 that this was not out of place on these forums. In retrospect, that it was only Andy and Mr. S using such appellants, and I will refrain from doing so any further. While I bristle at your comment, I recognize and acknowledge that it is fitting and appropriate given my name calling and I hope you will pardon my offense.

BTW. It has no bearing on my analysis of your play and decisions. I still find your gambit unwise and more harmful/confusing than anything, and full of contradictions and careless or thoughtless behavior.

[Candle Jack]

Also, why are you only saying what happened from Nikanor's perspective? That was NOT a joking tone, and that was NOT an overreaction

I think it is highly likely Nikanor is town. It seemed joking to me from the outside. What specifically, am I saying that is coming from 'Nikanors perspective' that is bothering you?

Delayed means that his actions will resolve the next night instead of this one.

um, why did you do this? Did you have a scum read on him going into night, because that is the only way delaying someone's action make sense from a town point of view.

I clearly stated my preference to lynch cult over mafia, but as I didn't see any merit to the arguments against WLC and Apok as cult, I instead voted the most obvious mafia member, Andy.

For one I happen to think Andrius is town, not 'the most obvious mafia member' at all. And my point stands, if someone else is acting anti-town and most people agree on this, (and you too possibly), but think he is mafia, you are saying you wouldn't place a vote down on them because they 'aren't cult'?

That wasn't addressed to you, it was addressed to me. Please try to read in context. You get distorted and completely wacky interpretations when you do that.

Oh thanks I didn't realize at all. The point here was that Apok used a verb most common to scum 'flailing' to describe someone he thinks is 'confirmed town'. There is a dissonance here. I could care less that he addressed it to you.

2) I was in a game with Nikanor in which the scum-team fake-claimed masons and won. So yeah, the connection worries me a lot.

Is this the game where another set of masons had already flipped and the scum masons that had claimed day one were both still alive? There is a clear difference between these cases