Mini 291: Clue Mafia.....Game Over!

[bigAl]

Hi all!

Randomly

vote TSAGod

.

[bigAl]

Flay seems a bit defensive...interesting reaction. As far as a page one suspect goes, I would lean towards Mr. Flay, but there's no real indication one way or another yet.

Have you people actually seen the movie?

There's a Clue movie? Hollywood must be officially out of ideas if they have to start making movies out of board games.

[bigAl]

I'll have to rent it someday.

[bigAl]

i take it we just started then? fun

randomvote: MeMe

... yes that was truly random... okeydokey

(btw i have yet to be in a mafiagame in which i dont make the first post w00t)

Something seemed odd with that post as well for me. I reread it about ten times trying to see if there was some kind of hidden claim coded in it (since that's happened in my last three previous games ). The language seemed a bit akward.


I feel that voting the butler is a very, very, very small tell. As far as page one votes go, however, pretty much anything can be used as reasoning to vote someone (eg. even OMGUS votes), so it's no big deal that Elvis or MeMe voted Flay. Explanations for page one votes are also generally pretty much unecessary. Mr. Flay did seem a bit defensive though also, which made me a bit more suspicious than I might have otherwise been. Still quite too early and too little evidence to really sway me one way or another.

[bigAl]

I had considered:
1) The mafia pick a target player and everyone in the target's room is killed.
2) The mafia pick a room and everyone in that room is killed.
3) The mafia pick a target and others in the room are witnesses to the kill.
4) Something else.
Though the first two (and possibly the third) would probably unbalance the game too much. I wonder what would happen if everyone picked the same room? Probably not a good idea until we know more about how they work. There's eight rooms left and ten people alive.

[bigAl]

That would leave the library, the hall, the billiard room and the dining room. So if we picked from only those, most of the rooms would have at least two people in them. Sounds like a good idea for now at least. Though someone will probably not pick from those four just to be different.

Incidentally, I noticed that there were only six people in Clue, excluding Mr. Boddy. With ten of us, there must be a few roles not from the game; (eg. I am hearing to references to a butler that everyone but me gets.) Though too much speculation about the rolls is probably bad.

[bigAl]

If we avoid the secret passage rooms, that pretty much limits the number of rooms to choose from to four.

Mod

, when we lynch people, do we get to choose what room to do it in? And does that room become out of bounds as well or is it only for night kills?

[bigAl]

Sounds good. I'll pick one of the four rooms that are not in the corners I think. It would perhaps give the scum some advantage if too many people reveal where they are staying though.

Now we need to decide who to lynch today....

[bigAl]

unvote TSAGod
vote Tamuz

Tamuz's posts are odd and not really making much sense to me. I thought that I had pointed it out before, but I guess not. Not sure if he's scum, but I am getting a strange feeling.

I am suspicious of bigAl because last time I saw him as scum he was really noncommital about who he thought was scum until he dropped the hammer on unsuspecting townies.

(shrug) It's only page three and I hadn't too much to make me decide one way or another. I'm still pretty new and learning about the game (eg. not to be noncommital about who I thought was scum until dropping the hammer on unsuspecting townies ).

[bigAl]

* Interesting how elvis points out that there is one killing group, but makes an insinuation to scum having ability to kill two

scum

.

Is this supposed to say two

people

? If so, I very much see it as possible (unlikely, but possible). If not, then where/how did she say (or insinuate) that?

[bigAl]

I believe you already outlined several reasons why on your previous post. He's not exactly helping us catch scum with only two posts.

[bigAl]

I'm here but don't really have anything new to contribute.

BJ, why is kops scum?

[bigAl]

I knew that that was going to be the answer before I asked...

[bigAl]

Well with the deadline I guess a Tamuz lynch is as good as anything.

[bigAl]

If I may throw a wild guess out here, I would suspect that he is either scum or vanilla townie.

[bigAl]

scum maybe, but if he is vanilla then that is kind of odd to just flat out refuse to full claim... in fact i cant see any position

other

than scum to not full claim right now, (or at least say that he will at 5 votes, instead of flat out refusing)

IMHO, vanilla is one of the roles that refusing to claim is most beneficial. I get the impression that it is the general MafiaScum policy to lynch any claimed townie on D1. If so, then claiming vanilla D1 is almost as good as lynching yourself. If you can convince others not to kill you without having to resort to claims, then there is a much lower chance of getting lynched.

In fact, I think I will

unvote: Tamuz, vote: kops

.

[bigAl]

To clairify my vote, kops seemed to be overly eager to lynch Tamuz. It seemed that to kops it wouldn't matter if he claims or not here:

we need a full claim right now or i'm lynching (although youre good as dead either way at that point)..

[bigAl]

Isn't the 23rd tomorrow?

[bigAl]

Mr. Flay: are you claiming to have some role that somehow interacts with other people in the same room as you?

and @kops: capitalisation & complete sentences = good; run-on sentences = bad

[bigAl]

So TSAGod will be lynched if the votes stand right now, though both TSA and kops have three votes each by my count.

By the way, I'll be away this weekend all saturday until sunday afternoon.

[bigAl]

There's still 45 minutes left. Still time to vote.

[bigAl]

I went to the lounge which is connected by a secret passage to the Conservatory. No result.

You'd think that there would be more than one scum than just kops to send in the kill.

I suppose it is possible that we are in the Conservatory because that's where the most people spent the night?

[bigAl]

bigAl, are you saying you moved between two rooms at night? I wonder why I didn't see you come in...

No. Since I knew there was going to be someone in the room connected by the secret passage (Lounge <--> Conservatory), I figured I would try and see if anything happened, or if there is any kind of special connection between secret passage rooms. I got no messages whatsoever, so I'm assuming that there is no connection, or perhaps that I can't go through them.

[bigAl]

Um, to clairify, I got no message

regarding the secret passage

, whether or not I got a message about something else.

[bigAl]

Tamuz, if you live to nightfall, come to the Conservatory with elvis and I. Even a vanilla townie can be proven, at times...

Why did you ask Tamuz to come to your room, if he was a vanilla townie and therefore would have no night actions for you to see?

[bigAl]

I'm taking the "from the way it's worded" bit to mean that he can't tell whether he can tell if anything is done to people in the room, but whether he doesn't know or knows he can't, I would presume Flay can only see actions initiated in the room he's in.

That would make sense, realistically speaking. A mafia could potentially shot someone from through the door way without getting seen, but it would be obvious if someone left the room.

[bigAl]

Also, unless you're relying on something in addition to your role as you've described it, I'd already thought of the all-in-one-room strategy and it doesn't work. Assuming scum can kill from a different room, they

say

they went to the same room as everyone else, make their kill, and then say you didn't see them in the room because they didn't have an action.

It would be able to find out all the pro-town power roles, if townies and scum would not show up. Though there's no way to force everyone to go to one room, and letting Flay find out all the pro-town power roles might not be a good thing. Also, if the scum need to be in the same room as their target, it would make it much easier for them to kill people.

[bigAl]

I can see a possible advantage of not claiming where you are staying future nights, but none in not claiming where you were past nights. That said, this is getting to be a bigger deal than it's worth, I think.

[bigAl]

1) Kill in the same room--that means they

probably

pick one person to get a list of who is in the room w/ them or something of the sort, so they would already know who was responsible for blocking them (assuming of course there is a same-room block as well)

It seems that this would be impossible; the scum would first have to wait for all the other night choices in before making any kind of decision, and BJ didn't send a night choice so it's probably not likely.

[bigAl]

Wait, why do you categorically believe BabyJesus when he says he didn't make a night choice?

I don't know if it's true or not, but either way, I don't think that there would be time for everyone to make a night-choice, give the scum the info about who is in there room with them, allow the scum to discuss actions and then get the scum's night choice in. The deadline for night-choices was 96 hours, and D2 started about a day after that.

And knowing BJ, it does seem odd that he would not vote.

vote: BabyJesus

[bigAl]

Most importantly I think, do we want anyone in specific to go with Flay tonight?

Possibly

have him announce his room and have the doc go there (w/o saying who they are obviously). In fact, I think that might work best b/c assuming the mafia need to submit a room to kill in (which I think is a fair assumption)... even if the doc does die, we catch a scum. I'm guessing the scum wouldn't want that to happen, which leaves 7 rooms for 4 townies to hide in, which is slightly better than 8 rooms for 6 of us (assuming there are 3 scum.. although in a game this size I suppose 2 is a possibility...)

Good idea. It would be good to confirm Flay's ability if possible. Though if the doc's role says that he can protect people outside the room, maybe he shouldn't go to that room if it would perhaps put him at risk?

[bigAl]

I've read all the arguments and EVERYONE is assuming a lot of things that they have no place to.

We don't know exactly what the room choices do, but (as BJ said) we can quite fairly assume that they do

something

. What?, not sure yet, but it might be useful later. For now, it seems that the advantages of claiming outway the disadvantages.

[bigAl]

Yeah.. I don't see how BJ claiming matters.... Clearly no one character in this game is any more likely to be scum than any other (assuming everyone's character is a color character).

Claiming your role name is probably pretty useless, but claiming your role type (ie. cop, doc, etc) might make a difference. Though I don't really see why Mr Flay is voting elvis over BJ. I suppose maybe cause BJ already has a couple votes.

[bigAl]

I'm quite confused at this point. I guess if I had to choose, I would lynch BJ. It's true though that Bamboomancer hasn't really contributed a lot.

Um...that's about all I have for now.

[bigAl]

That would also be a good option, I think. I'll try to re-read tonight.

[bigAl]

Well, most of elvis's concerns are either already been explaned or pretty much insubstantial. Now she's going back on it it seems. Putting a vote on lurkers can bring them back in the game and make more participation, perhaps without needing to go al the way to a lynch?

unvote, vote bigAl

pretty sure he's scum.

Not helpful!

[bigAl]

Why to Mr. Flay? though I know I haven't been terribly helpful the last few days, mostly cause I have no idea who's scum ATM.

[bigAl]

I thought as much, though didn't quite make sense at the time (seems kind of the reverse?). I guess I understand now.

[bigAl]

Actually, the longer I look at this game, the more I am starting to agree with Mr. Flay's ideas. Elvis has had a few odd accusations the last few days.

I would also like to know why the vote.

[bigAl]

I am voting for bigAl for slightly metagaming reasons. He is being very noncommital and very I-am-so-confused-I-don't-kow-who-is-scum. Last time I saw him like that he was scum. I already said I was suspicious of his attitude in post 69.

So there is no real reason to vote me? It's based basically on one newb game*? That's pretty bad resoning.

[side note]*in which the townies were doing a good job casting suspicion on each other, so I could just watch and be non commital - unlike this game?[/side note]

unvote: BJ, vote: elvis_knits

[bigAl]

Hmmm...reading over the view all posts by bamboomancer, he has actually made very few useful, contributal posts. Mostly explanations about why not to reveal room choices.

[bigAl]

I almost believe Elvis's claim: I wonder if a scum that did not actually try to do a kill would show up on Mr. Flay's night action detector? Thematically, scum would probably have to leave a room to converse with their partner. Though there's no guarrentee that Elvis did actually go to the conservatory. Thoughts?

unvote

while I reread, though still not impressed with the reasons for voting me.

[bigAl]

Mod clairification:

If no nightkill occurs, day will happen wherever the last body was found.

Day two dawns in the Conservatory.

Not sure if this is significant, but why aren't we in the Ballroom still?


I think at the moment I would rather lynch Bamboomancer than elvis_knits.

vote: Bamboo

Still not sure if I totally believe Flay's claim.

[bigAl]

A doc claim would make sense in trying to hide what room you are in, but also if you were mafia and got blocked by the doc, you might want to try to hide what room you were in from the doc.

[bigAl]

Well, I'm willing to believe the doc claim for now and we can perhaps test it tonight with Mr Flay.

[bigAl]

What do you mean "he can't be targetted by mafia"?

Perhaps he is assuming that if mafia have to be in the same room to kill and docs have to be in the same room to protect, then the doc would always protect himself so he's pretty much un-nightkillable? Doubtful.

[bigAl]

I think BabyJ is

probably

the best lynch today, but this game is just not making it easy for me to find scum. I don't know.

Unvote: Bamboomancer, vote: BabyJesus

didn't realise that I was still voting Bamboo.

[bigAl]

I totally forget what is happening in this game right now, I'll catch up and post thoughts tonight.

[bigAl]

I would suspect it's just theme around plum being a professor.

I'm down for mass claim ATM...

[bigAl]

Well, if random it is:

1. EmpTyger (replaces MeMe)
2. BigAl
3. Tamuz
4. kops
5. elvis_knits
6. Bamboomancer
7. Mr. Flay

Using the first 7 non-repeated numbers:

Original Roll String: 20d7

20 7-Sided Dice: (1, 5, 7, 5, 5, 4, 6, 2, 5, 3, 3, 1, 4, 5, 7, 2, 7, 6, 7, 4) = 89

[bigAl]

So:
7. Mr. Flay
4. kops
2. BigAl
6. Bamboomancer
5. elvis_knits
3. Tamuz
1. EmpTyger (replaces MeMe)

[bigAl]

I've stayed in the The Lounge both nights. Bamboomancer's next.

[bigAl]

OMG FLAY...

Newbie 225... MeMe is Mod... this guy is dead scum:

Vote: Meme for not giving us a deadline

I unvoted because maybe there's someone who acts more like a scummie.

Took me a second to see what you were talking about; I think that would be slightly more applicable to newbs, still scummy though.

EmpTyger's next.

[bigAl]

And you failed to mention that you picked an unpickable room when you were claiming too?

Tyger's plan seems pretty good.

Vote: Tamuz

Regarding elvis' post 468, she was pointing another case where people who vote the mod or other non-playing people are often scum, as Flay did to start off the game.

[bigAl]

Would there be any advantage of having a couple people (Elvis and I?) not say where we are going? Propably wouldn't make much of a difference, unless scum have to pick which room that want to attack instead of the person (which is still a possibility). I'd be fine with the current plan too though.

[bigAl]

Well, BJ did have to specifically ask Orbiting where he stayed, so he

could

be telling the truth. However the much much more likely reason is that he is lying scum. Happy with my vote.

[bigAl]

Let's go to sleep!

[bigAl]

Soooo...what's the plan?

[bigAl]

So:
- EmpTyger says that Elvis is guilty
- Mr. Flay says that kops is guilty
- Mr. Flay says that EmpTyger is likely telling the truth.

Assuming that there are two scum left, they must be one of (EmpTyger or Elvis) and one of (Mr. Flay and kops). Does that clear me, or have I not thought this out?

If EmpTyger and Mr. Flay are both telling the truth, everything is fine and we lynch kops and Elvis. If either one is scum, all they need to do is convince one townie to vote for their guilty target.

Right now, I am leaning towards believing EmpTyger; still undecided on Mr. Flay. Somehow I doubt that a scum Flay would have came out so early with his role though.

*not green*

[bigAl]

As for his "lassie"-claim, note how he and I shared a room n2 (hall)... If he were telling the truth, why didn't he spot me doing anything then?? I don't know

exactly

how lassies work, never having been one, but wouldn't they spot a scum going out to talk to his partners at night? I can't see how someone who can apparently see people's roles would miss this happening. Clearly if he were really telling the truth, he would have seen me then, instead of claiming to have seen nothing.

I think that trackers often only see night

actions

, so if you weren't the one to send in the kill, you might not show up.

While it is possible for Mr. Flay to have guessed correctly (if he was scum, he would only have two or three choices to choose from, and fairly easy to realise that kops was fishing for the Reverend part of the name), I doubt he is making up his ability to see people's colour. That said, I do not see the advantage of this kind of role for a scum. I'm not believing kops claim much.

But I'd like to hear from elvis before preceeding much more.

[bigAl]

While it is possible for Mr. Flay to have guessed correctly (if he was scum, he would only have two or three choices to choose from, and fairly easy to realise that kops was fishing for the Reverend part of the name), I doubt he is making up his ability to see people's colour.

Except that I said he was Green

before

kops started asking about the Rev./Mr. part (which was a mistake on my part, should have read my PM again during that superlong post). As far as I can tell, before I named myself and kops, elvis_knits was the only one currently alive to claim a color. Therefore to be making it up I'd have had to discern correctly which of {{EmpTyger, bigAl, kops}} was Green. Only 33% odds at best, and a big risk if wrong.

But if you're scum, you'd also know the colour of you're partner, which could bring it down to 50%. And if you guessed wrong and kops called you on it, you could just say kops was saying that to make you look guilty. I'm just point this out, NOT saying that I believe it.

[bigAl]

We are not entirely sure. It's the first time all of us have been in a Clue game . Some roles are affected by room choices. For example, it appears that docs have to be in the same room as someone they want to protect. Or, (so Mr. Flay claims) he can see night actions done in the same room as him. It's unclear whether scum have to be in the same room as their target, but probably doubtful.

I'll not vote at the moment to let mc catch up.

[bigAl]

Can you explain to me why I'm high on your suspicions list, especially since I'm a new person and so far haven't really done anything to prove whether I'm scum or townie?

You may be a new person, however you still have the same alignment as elvis. So (unfortunately) we can't ignore what your role has said in the past.

More specifically, EmpTyger has reason to believe (from his role) that you/elvis is scum. See his explanation in post 537 for details.

Anyway, thanks for replacing!

[bigAl]

Hmmm, I'll have to figure this out carefully.

vote masterchief

Thanks flay!!!

The above quote looks soooo much like a scum who is confident that they won (à la PBuG in Smash Bros...), which would make sense if they weren't counting on a one-shot vig. Of course, they could have set that up beforehand, but I think that that is unlikely.

I wonder why there was no night kill tonight?

[bigAl]

Hmm, so the only way that the game wouldn't have automatically ended last night is if there was a vig left. I think that the vig had to kill someone AND the mafia's kill blocked for the game to continue.

[thinking out loud]Why no scum kill?

First posibility: I can't fathom any reason why scum would not have tried to kill last night. They might not kill if they were trying to avoid, say, Mr. Flay's tracking ability, however it seems that they would think that they would be able to win at that point and not worry about that possibility.

Second possibility: the mafia's kills are somehow tied to room choices, and therefore, there was no kill due to the game mechanics and not due to any roleblocker, doc, etc. There was no kill N1, but still, I think that this unlikely because of room choices and more likely because of a doc, roleblocker, etc.

Third poosibility: Someone blocked the kill. Someone like me? The only problem with this is that I didn't block the kill. EmpTyger has claimed vig and Flay tracker/one-shot vig? So, that's not it either.

Fourth posibility: Scum killed their own. Not true because the kill tonight had special flavour there's not real reason to do so. (The only reason that I am mentioning this is cause I'm running out of other possibilities.)

Fifth possibility: Someone is lying about their role. However this would have to be a pro-town lier since they blocked the kill. Which doesn't make sense either.

Probably the most likely of all these rather unlikely possibilities would be the second one. hmm, which doesn't help decide who is telling the truth.[/thinking out loud]

[bigAl]

Wait a minute, let me get this straight:

The first time someone tries to kill in my room, I kill the murderer first. My ability works entirely passively: I only choose a room.

Tonight {

Bamboo

, Flay, kops,

Tyger

} stay in one room. (I’m arbitrarily picking the Library)

Bamboomancer

, Mrs. Peacock, doctor. Murdered, Night Three.

...
The

Library

- Bamboomancer, with the revolver.

Double checking: is this a total lie? Why didn't you stop the kill N3, if you were in the Library with Bamboo with your supposed ability?

[bigAl]

OK, thanks that explains some things (though still not too sure).

Today from Bamboo’s role description the doctor mechanic is explained. First of all, Bamboo obviously didn’t cancel me Night 2. Moreover, I think that if a roleblocker existed, they would behave similarly, meaning that they would have had to be in the same room. elvis claimed vanilla, so clearly couldn’t have innocently blocked me herself. So I know who I’m voting.

I read everything and my biggest concern right now is that you deduced that Elvis/MC was scum, when they turned up townie. I know that there weren't any other blockers in that room. Care to explain?

My ability works entirely passively, like it appears Bamboo’s did: I only choose a room.

For that matter, why didn't you kill Elvis that night (N2?) when you were alone with Elvis? Or are you saying that you only kill people if they are scum?

[bigAl]

Ok, thanks, I understand now.

Now to decide....hmm

[bigAl]

Damn it, I don't know. Go town!

Vote: EmpTyger

[bigAl]

Yay for totally unclear post-end-game, pre-lynch posts!

[bigAl]

Also, since it’s moot now, and I’m egotistically curious: would you mind letting me know how on earth you decided to vote me over Flay?

Well it wasn't easy. You did do a very good job of convincing me though. I think I was only about 60% sure it was you. Mostly a large collection of small things that added up to my decision.
Off the top of my head:

1. The fact that Flay came out with his ability so early (D1).
   
2. kops' last in-game post ("thanks, flay"). Especially with his bah post (which gave away more info than is proper, IMHO), which said that he was "obviously not expecting that."
   
3. The fact that you had claimed elvis was scummy, when she turned out town.
   
4. I was sceptical of Flay's abilities for most of the middle of the game (in fact, I considered that this might be all vanilla vs. scum until the doc died), but later on I realised that all the changes to his claimed role could possibly be true for of various reasons.
   
5. Flay's explanation for last night's kill was, overall, more believeable. (And the fact that it was not in a room like the other kills.)
   
6. I was somewhat doubtful about a vig role. It seemed that it might be close to unbalancing the game, seeing as you
   had
   to chose a room every night, might accidentally end up killing a lot of townies by accident.

Thanks for the game, Orbiting, it was a really fun setup!

[bigAl]

I actually kept expecting EMpTyger to use kops' D4 closing speech against me; another way it could have been interpreted that I didn't mention for OBVIOUS reasons was "Thanks Flay for being such a competent and helpful scum partner!" I'm not sure how I could have responded to that WIFOM logic.

I had thought of that too...but decided not to mention it to see if EmpTyger would bring it up...