[bah- Been busy, finally get a chance to post, and get beaten into the thread by an hour. Naturally.]
Since we’re in modconfirmed endgame, there’s no reason not to describe my ability; we’re not getting another night, and I suppose it simplifies things. Sgt. Grey, vigilante: the first time someone tries to kill in my room, I kill the murderer first. My ability works entirely passively, like it appears Bamboo’s did: I only choose a room. (N3 appears to be a cornercase involving how Bamboo and my abilities interacted. I’m still not sure what happened N2; the PM I received implied that no one else was with me.) And this should provide a most satisfactory explanation for why I did not want get into explain exactly how my ability worked previously.
Flay:
Mr. Flay [584] wrote:So are you saying you didn't kill kops? Remember that you just said you couldn't decide which of us was guilty....
I don’t know where you are getting that idea. *Yesterday* I couldn’t decide which of you were guilty. At twilight- when you 2 speedlynched Masterchief and he was revealed as an innocent- I kind of got a slight sneaking suspicion that just maybe you 2 might somehow be mafia together. But, as I said above, kops’s death wasn’t caused by my thinking him guilty.
I think I cover most of [589] in my response to bigAl below, but briefly:
Mr. Flay [589] wrote:<snip>Nighttalker:
Mr. Flay wrote:elvis and I can "talk" tonight.
Note the quotes; I didn't mean it literally, I was building on elvis' "It's a date, Flay.", and on my own role as a femme fatale. Strange that the only person who really was suspicious of it was...
your predecessor, MeMe.
Blatant lie. You post about “talk”ing in [66]. Tamuz wasn’t suspicious of it in [67]- but he was mafia. MeMe was suspicious in [68]. elvis doubleposted [69-70], and was suspicious [70]. You recant in [71].
Mr. Flay [cont] wrote:Cop:
I never claimed this; in fact I said so back in
April. What I *did* say was that I was pretty sure my role could prove MY innocence. At the time I thought I could clear Tamuz, I wasn't sure what my night results would be, so I thought perhaps I'd see someone try to act on him, and have an answer that way.
Lassie: true.
My role clearly states that I am a vigilante, and Bamboo was clearly stated to be a doctor, despite the fact that our roles differ slightly from the norm due to the room mechanic. I cannot believe you expect us to believe that you would have been announced as “Miss Scarlet, Lassie” had you died.
Mr. Flay [cont] wrote:Colorinvestigator: This wasn't described in my role PM, just came up when I finally saw something. Since I was *right* about kops, how does this incriminate me? Please explain what you find suspicious/pro-scum about this ability?
As stated below to bigAl, remember when you tried to accuse me by stating that “there was NO ambiguity about how [your] role works in [your] role PM”?
Mr. Flay [cont] wrote:One-shot vigilante:
Well, as you yourself said yesterday, it wouldn't make much sense to telegraph to the scum that I had a derringer in my garter, would it? Only I think I can prove my claim, unlikely as it is, and you...haven't.
You’re absolutely right. The fact that I claimed vigilante and then had a dead mafia turn up the next morning in no way proves my claim, but completely exonerates the guy who was claiming to be a cop up through dawn. Sure.
Mr. Flay [cont] wrote:Looking back on EmpTyger's room assignments, he put two scum and two town (from my perspective) {Bamboo, Flay, kops, Tyger} in the Library, and two townies {bigAl, elvis} in a second room. Maybe they have to outnumber/equal the townies in a room in order to get their kill through? Would make sense with respect to having three scum in a game of 10, it hampers them somewhat.
Except for the part where you have already stated that you didn’t see me do anything in the Hall N3.
Mr. Flay [cont] wrote:Then last night his proposal (which didn't work, obviously) was to put me in a room with kops (now known scum), and himself and bigAl in separate rooms. He was all-fired up to kill elvis that day despite my claim of evidence, and that would have put me in a room with a single scum by ourselves. That should have ended it with a town loss, if it had worked.
My proposal was assuming that elvis was guilty and exactly 1 of you and kops were mafia. Obviously that assumption was contradicted at nightfall.
Mr. Flay [cont] wrote:That's pretty much what I've got. If ET somehow DOESN'T claim his vigilante action worked last night, then you have to work under the assumption that I took out my partner, at night, in order to get to a three-man endgame where I'm relying on votes going my way. That stretches incredulity just a
bit
, for me anyway...
Except for the part where I killed kops. (And in any case, how is that less incredulous than what you are arguing: that I led the lynch of Tamuz D3 and pushed a cops in front of kops N4? Or, for that matter less incredulous than your claim?)
bigAl:
Er, forgive me, but where’s the confusion? This doesn’t seem that complicated…
Yesterday there were, for me, exactly 2 reasons to believe Flay. First was being an uncounterclaimed cop. Second was correctly identifying Scarlet and Green. Well, now there’s a much simpler explanation for the second than Flay suddenly developed color-detection: he was kops’s fellow mafia, and thusly knew his color! So that leaves the cop claim. A cop claim that kept changing despite Flay’s saying that “there was NO ambiguity about how my role works in my role PM.”
Temporarily assume that Flay has the ability that he described. Why on earth would he play it the way he did? (Interestingly, the plan kops proposed would have indeed been the most effective use of Flay’s alleged ability!) But rather than go with kops’s plan- or go with any alternative to take advantage of his alleged power, Flay weakened his claim and used that as reason to ignore the subject. His main concern is the worry that the doctor might be exposed- but even after Bamboo admits he’s the doctor, Flay still argues for randomized rooms. It is only the next day, when *I* set up the proper assignments that Flay is forced to use his ability in the way he should have from the beginning. (And at that point he has 2 choices: have it revealed that his ability is bogus, or sell out his fellow mafia and try to use that confirm himself. Not much of a choice.)
Moreover, let’s consider the cop ability. Temporarily assume Flay’s telling the truth. As I pointed out, he’s allegedly claimed “there was NO ambiguity about how my role works in my role PM.” (ignore for now the fact that he admits that he was not expecting the color). So he gets no result from vanillas (N1) and also no result from Bamboo’s doctor ability (N3). If he’s telling the truth, I’m guilty and thus don’t have my vigilante ability. So the only results he’d be able to get are mafia nightkills. (And any ability that you might be hinting at in [586], but honestly I’m skeptical.) First of all, this ability seems rather useless, since it seems that most of the time the cop would be able to see anything, it would be his own death! But most importantly, if Flay did have this ability, why would he try to set up a scenario where he’d be with only elvis?
I was suspicious of Flay because I noticed so many invocations of WIFOM logic, often explicitly: [35], [60], [206], [254], [512]. Interestingly, this includes a comment to Tamuz in which Flay describes how “[Flay]'ll sell [his] partner down the river at the slightest provocation”
Flay has lynched 3 protowns. While he did lynch Tamuz, that was only after I presented ironclad evidence against him- and only after he tried to provide a plausible explanation for Tamuz’s misclaim. And only after he kept trying to shift the lynch to elvis, until I pointblank asked him if he had any reason to do so. Which he had to admit that he didn’t.
Flay’s suspicions Day 1 and 2 are usually on people who have been confirmed as protown. The exception is that he does vote for Tamuz; but only after stating that he’s worried about how closely Tamuz has linked himself to him. Which can obviously be taken 2 ways. He soon abandons Tamuz for TSAGod- yet attacks you for doing the exact same thing.
He tried to get me to label the people I assigned to the Hall (which include him and kops) as being cleared, despite trying to cast suspicion on Bamboo.
The first time BabyJ was bandwagoned, Flay put the 4th vote on, and preemptively placed suspicion on a 5th vote [the lynching vote]. This reminded me of the classic newbie game tell: placing the 3rd vote Day 1 (with 4 to lynch).
Day 3 Flay wanted to start with a nameclaim, rather than a roomclaim, despite the fact that there is no evidence for any use for a nameclaim. Except, of course, for his alleged ability- except he didn’t “discover” until the following night.
Day 4 Flay pointed fingers equally at each other player. It didn’t make sense how he could have held the same level of suspicious towards elvis as he did towards me or you after what happened yesterday- unless he was trying to keep suspicion onto everyone, so that whoever he needed good be the target. Even today, he hasn’t yet voted me, I suppose holding out some hope that I might be manipulated otherwise?- despite the fact that you now are a confirmed innocent by virtue of not lynching Flay in endgame.
And what were his alternatives? Yesterday he was careful to keep suspicion on you and I as well as elvis- despite the fact there was little evidence against you and less against me. Today, since I’ve proven my ability, and I voted Flay, so the only way that he can win is by trying to somehow discredit me.
Also, MeMe picked up a tell that never got followed up on: “My instinct says
our
kill was blocked last night.” Also never followed up on what Fuldu pointed out: “Flay seemed awfully convinced that he was going to be able to prove himself, but his role doesn't seem to justify that level of confidence.” Nor the “Vote: The Butler” detail.
<speculation>One thing that struck me on my first readthrough as being rather odd was how Flay mentioned being able to “talk” with others in his room, which he then quickly recanted when the town found this unusual. I was recently in a game where, to balance a larger-than-expected mafia group, there were limits placed on their ability to nighttalk. This game, with the room mechanic and 10 players instead of 12, seemed like it could easily have something like that: the mafia being only allowed to nighttalk if in the same room. Day 1, Flay might not have realized that only mafia got this ability, and slipped up in thread. This might also explain some of the summarizational posts (ie [430]) that he would make when it seemed like the day would be about to end: to get the mafia onto the same page, in case they couldn’t nighttalk.</speculation>
Incidentally, I’m guessing the no-kill N1 was because Bamboo protected Fuldu. Impossible to tell for sure, since Fuldu never claimed his N1 room, and Bamboo would have had to have gotten extremely lucky to have hit him. But he seems the most likely target, both for his playskill and I’d guess because the mafia probably suspected he was the real cop, as he only cast 1 vote all day: for kops. (At first I thought that there was some interplay involving the secret passages, that Bamboo in the Kitchen was able to protect MeMe in the Study; but then I realized that I had forgotten about the players who had died before I joined the game, and realized that the simplest explanation would be that Fuldu was in the Kitchen N1.)
