Mini 291: Clue Mafia.....Game Over!

[Mr. Flay]

Indeed; while not everyone may have followed the plan this time, it was enough for me to finally get results.

Sorry, Bamboo, for doubting you; but I don't believe you died in vain.

[kops]

well would you like to share.... ?

Also, i want to hear EmpTyger's explanation that he promised us about his room choices.

Sucks that we lost the doc but I still don't really get how he worked...

Anyway, if Flay is actually telling the truth, then I'm guessing Elvis is whoever he names's scumbuddy, but I don't regard it as particularly likely that he

is

telling the truth considering he hasn't given us any info until now and now that he "has" info he has refrained from giving it to us... anyway, I'll hear what he has to say first.

[kops]

(obviously if he names elvis, than elvis isn't her own scumbuddy... in that case I'm not sure)

[kops]

oh crap, just remembered
I will be unable to post on June 1st or 2nd, and probably not until late on the 3rd

[bigAl]

Soooo...what's the plan?

[Mr. Flay]

well would you like to share.... ?

Actually, not yet. If I was to come out and say, "X did it", any other scum would be free to jump on with impunity (and I believe we have two left, based on a reread of the thread). With the doc dead, I'm unlikely to live through tonight, so today has to count for as much as possible for me. I should point out that a pro-town player would likely have been thinking this way already, kops.

That said, if it's the will of the group that I reveal early, I will. I'd prefer to first hear what night actions, if any, people are willing to claim happened in the Library. Maybe not even specifics yet, but "I took an action" or not might help. Interestingly, now that I've got information I've also got at least one person's role name (their color), so NO ONE else should reveal their color as yet. This may help me prove I'm not lying, later; I can go first with respect to colors to show I'm not just guessing, but I'd rather wait to reveal what I saw.

[Bamboomancer]

SCANDALOUS!

(Go town)

[EmpTyger]

Sorry- am running late for work; will post later tonight. For now, I was in the Library.

[kops]

Alright, while I still don't really understand the reasoning behind witholding information since the scum know who you saw and can jump on whenever they want whether or not you tell us what you saw but w/e.

Anway, I too was in the library. Hopefully an explanation from Emp is forthcoming.

[Mr. Flay]

Yes, but did either of you do anything there??

[EmpTyger]

Flay:
Right now I see 4 possibilities for you:
A) You identified 2 mafia, and are trying to find a way to confirm yourself in the town’s eyes to provide a win.
B) You identified 1 mafia, and in addition to trying to find a way to confirm yourself, you are hoping to catch out the deduced third mafia.
C) You did not get the type of result you are expecting, and are trying to clarify without giving enough away to the mafia that they would be able to escape.
D) You are lying through your teeth.

I’m trying to think up a scheme whereby both of us would be able to test and/or clear the other. If necessary, or if I am unable to, I will make the first move (as promised yesterday, as kops is so quick to remind), but I would like a little more time to try to solve this dilemma, if you are willing to be patient. [Obviously ipso facto my stating this has the potential to give something away, but that seems unavoidable.]

[EmpTyger]

Wait a second. I think this is much easier than I thought. Will post after dinner.

[EmpTyger]

[Argh, it’s not that easy. I briefly thought I had a way to absolutely settle things- and then *Fuldu* of all people stopped me. Weird game.]

I can’t think of a good way of doing this, and at this point I don’t think it is worth fighting over. Sorry, Flay, but I can’t answer your question. Because I myself don’t know whether I did anything observable last night in the Library.

I am a vigilante. <character withheld per request> I am not really sure how my ability works. In fact, MeMe wasn’t sure; she forwarded me nothing about the inthread details, but several correspondences with the mod trying to understand the role.

Night 1 I [MeMe] was in the Study. (In rereading, I was wondering whether MeMe had been trying to discourage protowns from the corner rooms and then go to one herself, with the expectation that anyone there was antitown, but this is just my guess.) Nothing happened.

Night 2 I was in the Dining Room. Which elvis also claimed. Nothing happened…

During Day 3 I realized that bigAl’s convenient assignments, elvis’s claim of the Dining Room, and Tamuz’s implosion together provided me an opportunity. I assigned elvis to a different room than me to see if anything different happened. I put bigAl (the only one besides myself who hadn’t yet claimed vanilla status) with her, to keep both of them honest. I put the claimed doctor with the claimed cop, to test each other. I kept kops and Flay, who had claimed the same room, together. I gave the claimed cop an opportunity which would at the very least very his previous 2 nights. And I put myself in the room with 3 other people, to make sure that I would know what would actually happen when I was in a room with someone else. And I made sure that there wasn’t anything weird with secret passages interfering, because I was wondering whether that might have happened Night 1 with Bamboo in the Kitchen. And… nothing happened…?

Today from Bamboo’s role description the doctor mechanic is explained. First of all, Bamboo obviously didn’t cancel me Night 2. Moreover, I think that if a roleblocker existed, they would behave similarly, meaning that they would have had to be in the same room. elvis claimed vanilla, so clearly couldn’t have innocently blocked me herself. So I know who I’m voting.

But first, as I’m sure elvis would want, let’s have a little discussion. We might as well assume a third mafia member and plan for them.

Tonight: Even assuming the secret passages work, I can’t think of any room assignment which would provide an advantage. If anyone has any suggestions, I’m receptive.


Flay:
Let me be fully honest: I cannot bring myself to fully believe you. On my first readthrough, I was genuinely amazed you hadn’t been lynched. You’ve changed you’re claim between one day and the next. You’ve frequently invoked WIFOM in your logic. You’ve done your best to try to continuously discredit the [now-confirmed] doctor. You were the only one on both innocents’ lynches. You’ve fished the most throughout the game. There’s that “talk” slipup. And you seem overeager to assume that the town thinks you a confirmed innocent. And a lot of little things from the past 3 days, just so much evidence that I cannot bring myself to simply trust you…

…and yet, you *are* an uncounterclaimed cop. And for all the reversing, the confusion over your role rings too true.

Your turn. Let’s hear your story. Convince me.

[Mr. Flay]

First of all, I'm Miss Scarlet. Let's get that color out of the way right off, so that I can show you I'm not guessing when I say I saw

Mr. Green

kill Bamboomancer

last night. And furthermore that

kops is Mr Green!

I believe now the rest of you should claim colors, although I want kops to go last for obvious reasons. If he tries to pre-empt this, consider why he might do that.

EmpTyger, I'm not entirely clear on your vigilante kill mechanism, but it sounds like you're not either. I can tell you that as far as I know, you didn't attempt to kill anyone last night. I get all "actions" in the room I'm in, and any attempts even if they don't succeed, according to the Mod. I'm not going to speculate more about your role, though I'm curious why you couldn't give us your room choices yesterday when everyone else did. More on that later.

As for your four possibilities, the only one that is important to me to disprove is D. (C happened to be true as well, but only insofar as I didn't expect to get a color name). One of two things would have to be true:
D1) Tamuz and I were in a 3-man scum group. This means we're still at lynch or lose (3 Town vs. 2 Scum) but I just gave you my other co-conspirator's name. Otherwise how would I know who Mr. Green is, if he's a townie? So I'm purposefully throwing my remaining partner under the wheels today in hopes of a win tomorrow/tonight? Colorclaims should prove this false, unless his partner wants to claim Green, of course...
D2) Tamuz and I were a 2-man scum group. In which case my cause is hopeless because I'll be lynched tomorrow when kops shows up pro-town, so I'd be better off arguing that my ability doesn't work at all, rather than staking my life on a bad lynch based on a false ability. Which still wouldn't explain why I know what kops' rolename/color is.

In turn, I see two possibilities:
E1) Tamuz and kops are the scum, full stop. If so, it'll become evident once we lynch kops; otherwise we failsafe to...
E2) Tamuz was in a three-man scum group, with kops and one other person. This seems extremely likely, because kops himself mentions in post #437 that we're "likely at 4-3, maybe at 5-2". This means there's one more person out there to catch; I wasn't sure it would work to hold off claiming, but let's get all our cards on the table now. I've got seven colors and seven alignments at this point, and while I understand that two of them are only PROVEN true from my end, I hope the remaining two townspersons will see the truth of it. I did a full voting analysis of the entire game, which I can post if you really want.

First of all, voting records show that Tamuz only actually voted for 3 people the entire game: BabyJesus on D1 & D2, bamboomancer on D2 right before he claimed, and MeMe on D1, saying he found her reason-not-given vote on me to be scummier than elvis_knits'. He's not been shown to vote for any known scum. On the other hand, he was voted for by bigAl, BabyJesus, elvis_knits, Mr. Flay (4 of 6 needed!), TSAGod (again 4 of 6 needed), and BabyJesus (5 of 6, we almost had him!) on D1. No one voted for him D2 at ALL, and D3, EmpTyger/MeMe led the charge based on his room claim, followed by bigAl, myself, and Bamboomancer. Both kops and elvis claimed to want to vote Tamuz that day, but we'd decided to let Bamboo hammer him.

From my perspective, I can see that kops had a similar voting record: MeMe on D1 (explicitly random, he says), then TSAGod, myself, back to TSAGod. He threatened to hammer Tamuz D1 when Tamuz was at 5/6, but didn't. D2 he only voted once, saying he could see the argument against elvis_knits now. Didn't vote D3, but says he suspected elvis over Tamuz early on, he's the only other player besides Tamuz to "blink" when EmpTyger calls out Tamuz' weird room choice. Why is HE asking for clarification? However late in D3 kops says he suspects elvis and Tamuz, but Tamuz "somewhat more". D4 he goes on that weird "elvis_knits is probably the scumbuddy of whoever Flay saw" thing right after I said I had results, which looks like it could be false association to me.

1st possibility:

MeMe/EmpTyger is the 3rd scum. For this to be true, EmpTyger would have had to sell out Tamuz yesterday during room claims, and push for his lynch REPEATEDLY D3 when he could have shifted with elvis' doubts and gone directly for the win. I'm leaning heavily against this possibility right now, although the Vigilante claim is awfully convenient for scum. What more can you tell us about this "confusing mechanic" without quoting your role PM, EmpTyger? The only globally proven power role worked on the room he was in (Bamboomancer), and mine works that way. Scum's may work that way, since I saw the kill last night and I don't think they'd have done it from the room I was in if they could possibly avoid it, since scum know I'm pro-town, and thus not lying.

2nd possibility:

bigAl is the 3rd scum. His voting record has been all over the place, including Tamuz and kops both on D1 (as well as TSAGod, who he later unvoted). D2 he voted for BJ, elvis, bamboomancer, and then back to BJ for the deadline lynch, on 5/2. He says he forgot to unvote Bamboomancer after he claimed doc, which might be true. Only BJ and elvis_knits voted for him ever, both on D2, but that doesn't tell me much. I actually thought bigAl was DEAD because I saw so few posts from him... but in his defense, he did put the first solid vote on Tamuz after EmpTyger's roomclaim catch, and stuck with it throughout D3.

3rd possibility:

elvis_knits is the 3rd scum. I've been on her case since D1, but that doesn't prove anything. A weird thing happened on D2; she switched her vote to MeMe hours before the deadline on 5/3, despite the fact that BJ's lynch was nearly a

fait accompli

(and yes, I was on BJ's lynch, and yes, elvis yelled at me for it the next day). The weird thing here is the only other two people to vote for MeMe the entire game were... Tamuz and kops (both on D1)! That's circumstantial at best, of course, but it is weird.
She also saved Tamuz and put TSAGod on the chopping block for D1's deadline - by switching her vote to kops, of all things! This really weirded me out at the time and I did mention it, but it looks really scummy in hindsight knowing more alignments now. Oddly, elvis says early on D2 that she "wants to lynch kops, just like yesterday", but never votes him that entire Day (or ever since D1, for that matter). She also voted for Tamuz on D1, but that's a small point of scumminess at best, as we had him up to 5 of 6 votes needed at one point... In her defense, scum could have been manipulating her feuds with myself, MeMe, and BJ, but I consider that doubtful...she looks like the best lynch right now, but I want EmpTyger's eyes on it as well.

Hopefully that answers your questions, ET.

[EmpTyger]

Flay:
I don’t understand the “obvious reasons” for kops claiming last, and am very leery of your push to have colors claimed out. Your role has changed *again*. This color business comes forward just when it would be most convenient for you if you were mafia. Your scattershot “everyone else is suspicious and potentially mafia” feels like an attempt to score a misvote in a lynch-or-lose scenario. And there is a huge problem with the logic you are using in your (D1) and (D2) cases, which I am not going to point out just yet. But mostly, claiming colors just doesn’t seem to make sense:

For all your bluster about being the most likely to die tonight- I don’t see how on earth you’d *not* live through the night. Temporarily assuming you’re innocent: if you die, then kops’s lynch becomes automatic, and the mafia automatically loses. Rather, I think it is certain that *I* will die overnight: it will be either bigAl or myself, and I have caught out at least as many mafia as you, and there is a chance that my vigilante ability could steal a draw.

But the point is, tomorrow 7 roles will be known from death, and whoever is kingmaking will clearly know the 8th. So, temporarily assuming you are innocent and kops is guilty: I don’t see the potential advantage of your color claiming plan.

I will claim Green/not-Green status, so if that is all you are looking for:

I am not Mr. Green

. But at the moment I am not comfortable saying more than that.

<snip>I'm curious why you couldn't give us your room choices yesterday when everyone else did."<snip>

It wasn’t that I *couldn’t*; it was that I saw no reason to, and had a reason to not. Tamuz was the lynch. Temporally, it didn’t matter whether I claimed first today or last yesterday; the only thing that might happen between them to prevent my claiming would be my death. And at first I didn’t want anything to be assumed about elvis Night 2 if I were to die and be revealed as a vigilante, because I myself couldn’t be sure about what had happened. Later, when I no longer had worry that elvis would be a mislynch, I nearly did claim- but realized that because it seemed so important to elvis that I do, it probably was worth doing the opposite.


bigAl:
Obviously I am biased in disregarding Flay’s 1st possibility, but I also think the 2nd is ridiculous- that requires both you could be guilty *and* elvis to be innocent, and I just don’t see that. So I am confident that regardless of the rest, you are a confirmed innocent. So I really want to make sure that you have my input, should you be kingmaking tomorrow. And just as importantly, vice versa.

[bigAl]

So:
- EmpTyger says that Elvis is guilty
- Mr. Flay says that kops is guilty
- Mr. Flay says that EmpTyger is likely telling the truth.

Assuming that there are two scum left, they must be one of (EmpTyger or Elvis) and one of (Mr. Flay and kops). Does that clear me, or have I not thought this out?

If EmpTyger and Mr. Flay are both telling the truth, everything is fine and we lynch kops and Elvis. If either one is scum, all they need to do is convince one townie to vote for their guilty target.

Right now, I am leaning towards believing EmpTyger; still undecided on Mr. Flay. Somehow I doubt that a scum Flay would have came out so early with his role though.

*not green*

[EmpTyger]

Had an idea for tonight. I am suggesting:
{Flay, kops} together in the Hall.
One of {bigAl, Tyger} in either {Kitchen, Study, Hall}, chosen as that player thinks best.
The other of {bigAl, Tyger} in either {Dining Room, Lounge, Hall}, again chosen as that player thinks best.
(I’m not sure what triggered the Day 2 lynch sealing off the Conservatory, and the dawnscene doesn’t really say which room we’re in, so it is theoretically possible that a room could be lost at lynch. So just in case that does happen: if we lose any room other than the Hall, the above doesn’t change. If we lose the Hall, replace “Hall” with “Dining Room”.)

I’ll defer to bigAl in terms of which set of rooms he’d like. (I recommend he not give an explanation either way.) While I have a preference, at the moment he has the most knowledge and I don’t feel that it is worth revealing things unknown to the mafia. If he thinks another plan would be better, say so (and again, he needn’t say why). For that matter, if anyone else wants to suggest room assignments, speak up.


Flay:
The cop claim is a sticking point for me, and that might be what decides it. And correctly calling that neither bigAl nor myself were Mr. Green would require you to either indeed have some investigative ability (albeit independent of your alignment, but I’m skeptical of a powerrole in a 3 person mafia in a 10 player game) or else be lucky (though it was admittedly a coinflip if you were mafia). I’m actually more convinced by Scarlet than by Green; for one thing, since bigAl didn’t counterclaim, it means that you correctly called both of the last 2 colors, which is more significant. And Occam’s Razor: kops and elvis, the ones who didn’t vote Tamuz yesterday, are the mafia.


kops:
Whenever you get back, I’d really love to hear your side of things…


elvis:
And here you are, missing your beloved discussion. Come, wouldn’t you like to provide some insight with your words?

[Mr. Flay]

Flay:
I don’t understand the “obvious reasons” for kops claiming last, and am very leery of your push to have colors claimed out. Your role has changed *again*. This color business comes forward just when it would be most convenient for you if you were mafia.

The color business came from the mod; I didn't expect it, but it did give me additional leverage against kops.

Your scattershot “everyone else is suspicious and potentially mafia” feels like an attempt to score a misvote in a lynch-or-lose scenario.

I don't understand this. I'm saying outright that kops should be today's lynch. If you think that's aiming for a mislynch, say so. If I'm scum and kops is town and I get him lynched, you can vigilante me tonight, right? Except that it's not true, of course; I saw him shoot Bamboomancer!

For all your bluster about being the most likely to die tonight - I don’t see how on earth you’d *not* live through the night. Temporarily assuming you’re innocent: if you die, then kops’s lynch becomes automatic, and the mafia automatically loses. Rather, I think it is certain that *I* will die overnight: it will be either bigAl or myself, and I have caught out at least as many mafia as you, and there is a chance that my vigilante ability could steal a draw.

Who are you thinking is the lynch for today? elvis? I've got eyewitness evidence on kops, why are you pushing for a "possible" lynch (unless you're claiming some sort of investigative ability, you're going on deduction vs. my witnessing), rather than the sure thing? I must be missing something, or YOU are the one playing for the mislynch.

If you die tonight, we lose a vigilante who may or may not be able to trigger their ability. If I die, we lose the ability to see who kills (you). Scum have two good options at this point, but if we lynch kops and he comes up scum, I think I look like the more solid NK. More on that when we talk about rooms.

But the point is, tomorrow 7 roles will be known from death, and whoever is kingmaking will clearly know the 8th. So, temporarily assuming you are innocent and kops is guilty: I don’t see the potential advantage of your color claiming plan.

I will claim Green/not-Green status, so if that is all you are looking for:

I am not Mr. Green

.

Fine. That's all I wanted, was to prove kops' color, as I saw him do the deed. I don't care about the rest of the colors, frankly, just wanted to show I wasn't guessing/lying.

<snip>I'm curious why you couldn't give us your room choices yesterday when everyone else did."<snip>

It wasn’t that I *couldn’t*; it was that I saw no reason to, and had a reason to not. Tamuz was the lynch. Temporally, it didn’t matter whether I claimed first today or last yesterday; the only thing that might happen between them to prevent my claiming would be my death. And at first I didn’t want anything to be assumed about elvis Night 2 if I were to die and be revealed as a vigilante, because I myself couldn’t be sure about what had happened. Later, when I no longer had worry that elvis would be a mislynch, I nearly did claim- but realized that because it seemed so important to elvis that I do, it probably was worth doing the opposite.

I honestly don't see this. Where is your ironclad conviction that elvis is scum coming from? I'm not saying I disagree; I DO find her scummiest right now, but your certainty is bizarre. And what are you saying about N2?

So:
- EmpTyger says that Elvis is guilty
- Mr. Flay says that kops is guilty
- Mr. Flay says that EmpTyger is likely telling the truth.

Assuming that there are two scum left, they must be one of (EmpTyger or Elvis) and one of (Mr. Flay and kops). Does that clear me, or have I not thought this out?

No, that seems reasonable. But (from my perspective) if EmpTyger is lying about elvis, and wants to lynch her today, we could lose (like I said, confused/incompetent vigilante is one of the easiest scum claims). So I'd obviously rather lynch kops today, and see which one of EmpTyger, myself, or bigAl dies tonight. I can't imagine they'd kill you bigAl, but we DID just seem to clear you....

I want to hear from both of the others before we even begin to vote, however. And the room thing depends wholly on who we lynch; I'd still like to figure out the apparent confusion about EmpTyger's role and how it's triggered. That's the largest source of my doubt; there was NO ambiguity about how my role works in my role PM.

(I’m not sure what triggered the Day 2 lynch sealing off the Conservatory, and the dawnscene doesn’t really say which room we’re in, so it is theoretically possible that a room could be lost at lynch. So just in case that does happen: if we lose any room other than the Hall, the above doesn’t change. If we lose the Hall, replace “Hall” with “Dining Room”.)

Rooms seem to get sealed off when there's a dead body there at nightfall; it doesn't prevent us from gathering there at Day, but it does preclude any further night stays there. Thus D1 we were IN the Ballroom, where Boddy "died" N0, then we couldn't pick it that night, leaving TSAGod's body there too. D2 we killed BJ in the Conservatory (I don't know why we gathered there, presumably that's where the most number of nightchoices ended up). D3 we found Fuldu in the Billiard Room, and lynched Tamuz there. Today we're in the Library, but won't be able to choose it tonight (I'm assuming, since Orbiting has already taken it off the list of available rooms). I have no idea what would happen if there were two nightkills in two different rooms; I don't think it matters much at this point.

[Mr. Flay]

I've got to think about this a bit more; with a Vigilante, No Lynch may become viable here, if you're 100% certain somehow about elvis. It essentially pushes the lynch into the night phase. On the other hand, if we lynch kops, you can either vig me (if he's town, improbably), or elvis, right? Or are you that uncertain about your ability to trigger it???

That just baffles me. Please elaborate, EmpTyger; we don't have any room to guess wrong.

[EmpTyger]

I would like to hear something from kops, who was to be back by now, before I respond to Flay’s most recent posts.

[Mr. Flay]

Sure, without hearing from elvis and kops we're likely to go in circles.

[kops]

Yes I am back, but before I answer anything, I need Flay to answer this question. Trust me, the purpose will be revealed when it has been answered:
Flay, what did the mod tell you my role was? This question needs to be answered exactly down to the letter. Title followed by color.

[Mr. Flay]

Rev. Green; I paraphrased earlier.

[kops]

Alright, sorry 'bout not following up untill now but I had some major internet problems.

So anyway, yes, the purpose of that question was to check how much you really knew, and yes I am

not

Mr. Green, but rather Reverend Green.
Obviously I need to claim now, so here's what I have to say.

I am vanilla. I'm really not sure how Flay know's my color, but I'm guessing that he has an additional scum ability to find out people's colors/role names at night. This is the only possible explanation I can think of because I can't figure out how else he could know my color.
As for his "lassie"-claim, note how he and I shared a room n2 (hall)... If he were telling the truth, why didn't he spot me doing anything then?? I don't know

exactly

how lassies work, never having been one, but wouldn't they spot a scum going out to talk to his partners at night? I can't see how someone who can apparently see people's roles would miss this happening. Clearly if he were really telling the truth, he would have seen me then, instead of claiming to have seen nothing.
In addition to all that, as has already been pointed out by a number of people I believe, he has continually changed his story about his role.. first claiming to be able to tell us something d2, and then not following through, not giving us anything d3

either

and only now, in probable lylo when he is desperate, does he claim to have seen anything.

What I think really happened is that he now knows a number of people's colors, but this is the first time he's been able to use it to his advantage, being able to claim that one townie killed another.

Honestly, I see no other possible situation for what happened, because all I know is that I'm vanilla, and Flay was in the same room as both me and the night kill.

So as such,

fos that would be a vote were we not in a dangerous situation: flay

, at least untill he has a chance to say his piece about what I just said.

[bigAl]

As for his "lassie"-claim, note how he and I shared a room n2 (hall)... If he were telling the truth, why didn't he spot me doing anything then?? I don't know

exactly

how lassies work, never having been one, but wouldn't they spot a scum going out to talk to his partners at night? I can't see how someone who can apparently see people's roles would miss this happening. Clearly if he were really telling the truth, he would have seen me then, instead of claiming to have seen nothing.

I think that trackers often only see night

actions

, so if you weren't the one to send in the kill, you might not show up.

While it is possible for Mr. Flay to have guessed correctly (if he was scum, he would only have two or three choices to choose from, and fairly easy to realise that kops was fishing for the Reverend part of the name), I doubt he is making up his ability to see people's colour. That said, I do not see the advantage of this kind of role for a scum. I'm not believing kops claim much.

But I'd like to hear from elvis before preceeding much more.