Mini 1150 - There Goes the Neighborhood - Game Over

Seacore · Post Post #1050 (ISO) » Wed Jun 15, 2011 11:35 am

Heh. I've been hoping you were a doc all game.

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #1051 (ISO) » Wed Jun 15, 2011 11:39 am

No comments on me thinking Reg is town, or that AV is scum?

Feysal · Post Post #1052 (ISO) » Wed Jun 15, 2011 1:27 pm

Nachomamma8 [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=3133195#p3133195]#1048[/url] wrote:I also went through krypt's ISO while making a post on AV, and I'm pretty sure Regfan is town.

That may be. I'm not sold on you being town though. I went to your ISO looking for something specific, but as I skimmed I found some other things of interest.

#140 - Something that has bothered me about you was that even though the stated purpose of your gambit was to gauge reactions to your claim, it seemed that LlamaFluff was doing far more reaction mining than you. In fact I could only remember one post where you analyzed the reaction of one player, and that was kryptinen. The first time I read this I had a town read on her so I moved on and forgot who it was about, until now. This looks suspicious to me, not so much for having the wrong read on kryptinen, but because hers was the only reaction you commented on.

#604 - Here you said your read on Setael should be obvious, but was it? You had questioned her, but I couldn't find a post where you'd have taken a stance on her.
#610 - Here you voted Setael...
#670 - ...called her a good vote and everyone else bad...
#727 - ...only to unvote her when she claimed doctor. You then asked for a counterclaim and voted Doombunny out of the blue, no arguments given.
#754 - In the last post of the day, after Setael gave up, you hammered. Again no arguments given.

What was up with all this?

Nachomamma8 [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=3133195#p3133195]#1048[/url] wrote:krypt's scumflip also does a pretty good job of clearing Seacore, I think. The "one scum out of Set/Sea" seemed like something she knew because of inside info; there really wasn't any reasoning behind it except for "gut", and yet she was pretty damn confident about it.

I agree about Seacore. Had there really been two competing wagons on scum, kryptinen should've known one of them would be lynched, and she could've voted either one. The fact that she hesitated to vote Seacore would indicate she did not want to be seen as responsible for a mislynch. That bit about inside info is interesting though. Remember this?

Nachomamma8 [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=3039904#p3039904]#669[/url] wrote:Grey, you do realize that Set and Sea AREN'T scum together, right?

You later explained that the pairing of Seacore and Setael lacked a good third wheel. I find that explanation suspect to say the least. I don't see why your other suspects couldn't be scum with the two, and given how uncertain you were about your other suspects, I don't get why you'd even try to nail the entire scum team at once, before a single one had been revealed.

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1053 (ISO) » Wed Jun 15, 2011 1:35 pm

@Nacho - While I agree with quite a few of your points really, my biggest problem is the supposed N0 action. Now I have no idea if actions were really allowed N0 or not, but if they were... why would Krypt talk to her partner?

Eggh...

Wish there was a lot more to be confident over at this stage in the game.

Regfan · Post Post #1054 (ISO) » Wed Jun 15, 2011 2:01 pm

I don't have the time do an anaylsis just yet - I'll get to it later today but if anyone else is interested below are the vote counts.

Spoiler: Day 1

Spoiler: Day 2

Spoiler: Day 3

Feysal · Post Post #1055 (ISO) » Wed Jun 15, 2011 4:09 pm

Rules wrote:E5) Because this game is based heavily on quicktopics, there will be a 48 hour N0. The purpose for this time will be to use the quicktopics. No other powers/kills will be allowed on N0 (unless the role specifically says otherwise).

Ever since I read the QuickTopic with AV, I've thought that the disclaimer in this rule was referring to the neighborizer. So yes, I do believe AV was targeted, and I can't see why scum would target each other. That is another solid reason why AV is town, aside from his tunneling on kryptinen.

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1056 (ISO) » Wed Jun 15, 2011 4:09 pm

Ok, I have to look at this from an objective standpoint of why would people do the things that they have in this endgame. First question of course is why would Sea move himself away from me? That makes zero sense since we both had town reads in eachother and we would have had the ability to talk in private which would have helped him go further in the game. I cant see scum-sea move himself away from me at all. Next question is did Reg really realize that he was moved, I mean, could scum be that bold as to feign ignorance over that? Not too sure.

Now we move over to Nacho, AV and Feysal. If Reg and Sea are town, they were moved to either through WIFOM over there or keep me and Sea apart. Either one of these I see coming least from Feysal. Also the claim like nacho pointed out... would TS really be able to come up with a BP fakeclaim like that pregame?

Whats up with the N0 ability from Krypt too? How does that really benifit anyone? What gets me though is that the rules

specifically

hint at a N0 action. But again, Krypt uses it on a partner? Really? I honestly can believe that scum-Krypt decided to just burn her power on a random player.

.................................................................................................

........
...................................

damn

no epiphany yet.

Still. Here are my early conclusions

1) Sea is town. It makes no sense for him to move away from me as scum since I had a town read on him. WIFOM I know but still I cant see it happening. Other actions back this up heavily.
2) I actually lean Feysal to town. Some interactions + the role and who claimed it. Was it stupid to claim when he did? Yeah but I can still see him doing that as scum.
3) If Krypt had a N0 action, AV is town. If Krypt had no N0 action, AV is scum. I actually lean to the action being real. I can completely see scum pulling a move like that.

As M. Night Shamallamallamalyin says...

ITS A TWIST

Vote Nacho

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1057 (ISO) » Wed Jun 15, 2011 4:10 pm

NO! Damnit Feysal I wanted to be the one pointing out that N0 rule thing

Feysal · Post Post #1058 (ISO) » Wed Jun 15, 2011 4:16 pm

You did. Our posts were only seconds apart, you couldn't have written all that after reading my post.

Seacore · Post Post #1059 (ISO) » Wed Jun 15, 2011 4:54 pm

I agree with the N0 conversation and conclusion completely.

I'd be happier with a Reg kill tonight but will accept a Nacho. Either way, i think we've won.

I don't buy Reg's display of confusion, not enough to change my read anyway.

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1060 (ISO) » Wed Jun 15, 2011 5:21 pm

I think there is a slip from Nacho out there, I want to see if anyone else actually comes to the same conclusion I did though. One thing makes zero sense from town to me, and more like scum with a fakeclaim given to them.

AurorusVox · Post Post #1061 (ISO) » Wed Jun 15, 2011 11:25 pm

Nachomamma8 wrote:(A): Doesn't mention why he's decided to stop voting krypt, and the switch itself is pretty awkward; he hadn't mentioned krypt for sometime, and was sort of floating around for a little while before this.

I quite clearly do mention it. Powerrox's vote was godawful.

Nachomamma8 wrote:(B): After the Quaorath lynch. Seems like an early attempt to get someone lynched for bad play, manages to distance from his krypt read a little more, but it remains his "second strongest read".

Krypt was still my second strongest scumread, but I saw ZERO reason for TownPowerrox to claim the way he did. Putting your claim out in bits and pieces "accidentally", made it look like a surefire fakeclaim.

Nachomamma8 wrote:(C): Here, AV pretty much uses krypt as a placeholder vote. There's a short period of questioning, a reread, and then... a Seacore vote, and no reasoning as to why suspicion of krypt was dropped off.

The reason is self-evident. Because Seacore was in that spat with Setael, which was the scummiest thing in-thread at that time.

Nachomamma8 wrote:There's also this handy quote wall:

Spoiler: Tunneling
ISO 19 wrote:Maybe I'm just a grumpy asshole cos it took so long to get an answer.

ISO 20 wrote:I'm still not happy with Krypt but it could be tunnelvision or irritation at having to keep repeating my questions to get a straight answer

ISO 41 wrote:My tunnelling could be to blame for this.

ISO 46 wrote:I am aware that I may be biased due to my frustrations at having to work so hard to get an answer yesterday.

ISO 50 wrote:Maybe I'm blinkered by tunnel vision after all...

Shall we just ignore everything else I've said about why I found him scummy?
Or shall we just counterbalance my attempts to get him lynched with your persistent attempts to derail the Krypt wagon yesterday?
You helped get Setael - the goon - lynched, but you were not interested in the Krypt wagon in the slightest.

Nachomamma8 wrote:I think that if AV was genuine, he wouldn't fencesit on his suspicions so much; he'd push to get krypt lynched with all of his might, or he'd consider her town. And I seriously hope that I'm not the only one who finds it suspicious that AV couldn't get krypt lynched for three days, but the moment someone else starts a wagon, krypt gets lynched. I've never seen a town on town or town on scum tunneling session go on this long without one of the two dying; the only times it occurs is when both are scum, and neither really wants the other lynched.

A significant part of my initial suspicions and the reason that I focused on her for so long were the N0 interactions. But I didn't want to out-and-out say that because I was curious who else she'd try to neighbourize and didn't want to influence that, or how she talked in it. Guess when she hit PR she didn't need to fish anymore. So if I sounded non-committal, it was only because I was pushing her with half the case, and felt I should downplay my tunnelling because I didn't want to admit why I was doing it.

I also continuously tried to get her lynched, but barely anyone else was interested in the wagon. It's not surprising it took this long to get her lynched when no one else really wanted to lynch her other than me for a long, long time.

Nachomamma8 wrote:I also find it pretty strange that krypt never turned on AV, or really made the effort to turn him off her. Maybe it's just because she was newscum, but she really didn't toss any dirt on him (apparently not even in QTs either), and she never tried to buddy up with him or anything. This tells me that she didn't perceive him as a threat, or that she really didn't know how to react.

She never "turned on" anyone that's still alive here. Look at her complete lack yesterday. "Oh I need to look at Llama moar" but then failing to follow that up at all is just one example.

Also worth noting is her fear of major wagons. She didn't vote for me because she barely ever took a significant place on the major wagons (the exception was the PR wagon that you yourself started). She never voted for Reg yesterday until there were no other votes there. She didn't hammer Seacore when she had the chance; hell, she didn't vote him even when the wagon shifted to Setael. She called out the hammer vote on Quar as scummy, which shows that in her mind, voting in a prominent position on major (mislynch) wagons is a cause for suspicion. This explains why she stayed off mine far better than your theory which could be said of anyone here.

---

Also, your reasons for trusting Seacore due to you not dying are shaky at best:

Wicked was a strong and obvtown player (who had declared suspicions of Seteal, which, incidentally, were starting to change, something he told me in the QT...)
Power was a claimed Watcher
Grey was a proven Vigilante

Are you suggesting scum would kill you off over any of these players?

Also, Grey and I discussed this N2 and we both agreed that you were probably a gambitting PR (I think he reckoned it was like, 80% chance; he said it was 10% likely you were gambitting scum and 10% an actual neutral survivor. He NOWHERE considered it as a VT gambit, and said unequivocally that if you claimed VT you should be the noose without a second thought.)

So. That kinda trashes that idea...

---

Like Seacore, I'm happy for a Nacho or a Regfan lynch today. I don't think we can lose this.

Reg is still scummy from previous days, and if scum moved themselves last night, between him and Seacore he comes out by far the worst. Also, I really don't believe he missed all the QT topic posts - I'm guessing here but LF/Seacore, did you ask him about the switch? My thought is, if he's scum he probably didn't fancy facing questions about that. I still maintain there are connections between Krypt and DB, and I

still

have an issue with Reg saying Krypt acted protown in the QTs. From the sounds of what Krypt said to him, he posted a bunch of non-committal reads. I also find it hard to believe that if Reg was town, Krypt didn't try to rolefish him like he tried on me.

As for Nacho, I would have been far more likely to read the gambit as town if he had been a PR. I think if he's scum, he was hoping to coast on towncred gained from pushing Setael (goon). He was arguing for KryptTown and was completely uninterested in his wagon yesterday (he definitely came across as very "coast"y then). Plus, he could have been WK'ing Seacore (Grey thought this too), and it looks like he "knew" Seacore is town, something that Feysal has touched upon above.

---

@Llama, are you referring to the change in name?

LimMePls · Post Post #1062 (ISO) » Thu Jun 16, 2011 2:51 am

Vote Count 4.3

Seacore (0)

-

Regfan (2)

- Seacore, AurorusVox

LlamaFluff (0)

-

Nachomamma8 (1)

- LlamaFluff

Feysal (0)

-

AurorusVox (1)

- Nachomamma8

No Lynch (0)

-

Not Voting (2)

- Feysal, Regfan

6 votes available, 4 votes needed for an arrest

It is now day. Deadline is approximately 3:00pm EDT June 24.

AurorusVox · Post Post #1063 (ISO) » Thu Jun 16, 2011 3:23 am

LMP: Think you've got mine and Regfan's votes switched there ^^"

Fixed. Thanks

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1064 (ISO) » Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:39 am

AV got it!

I see zero idea for town to actually lie about their flavor name. What difference does it make if he says he is Mr. X or Mrs. Y for that flavor? Then again why would scum lie about it... but I see it as slightly more likely that scum has a safeclaim name for whatever reason and messed it up.

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #1065 (ISO) » Thu Jun 16, 2011 10:06 am

LlamaFluff wrote:AV got it!

I see zero idea for town to actually lie about their flavor name. What difference does it make if he says he is Mr. X or Mrs. Y for that flavor? Then again why would scum lie about it... but I see it as slightly more likely that scum has a safeclaim name for whatever reason and messed it up.

How as scum do you think I messed it up? Do you think I "accidentally" posted my fakeclaim and my realclaim right next to each other while claiming to both you and Feysal? And do you really think scum HAVE safeclaim names? Are Luke Bronston and Maggie Johnson obvious scum names to you?

When I claimed survivor, I created a fakeclaim. That included fake flavor, and a fake name. It's not a slip to do something thoroughly.

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #1066 (ISO) » Thu Jun 16, 2011 10:42 am

AV wrote:I quite clearly do mention it. Powerrox's vote was godawful.

But you used the vote as a way of getting out of an awkward situation (having your vote on krypt but not really having anything to say about her), and getting out of a promised reread. If PR's vote was so damn bad, you wouldn't just coast by on that, would you? You'd follow up on him. Did you? No. You sat on his wagon until he claimed, and then you switched back to krypt, no explanation.

AV wrote:Krypt was still my second strongest scumread, but I saw ZERO reason for TownPowerrox to claim the way he did. Putting your claim out in bits and pieces "accidentally", made it look like a surefire fakeclaim.

The krypt read was pretty heavily weakened though, considering you opened it up with the whole "This might just be me tunneling again...", and the last thing you said on her was that she was leaving your scumlist because she as making a few decent points. Was there any explanation for that? No.

AV wrote:The reason is self-evident. Because Seacore was in that spat with Setael, which was the scummiest thing in-thread at that time.

I don't think the reason is self-evident. Why Seacore over Setael?

AV wrote:Shall we just ignore everything else I've said about why I found him scummy?
Or shall we just counterbalance my attempts to get him lynched with your persistent attempts to derail the Krypt wagon yesterday?
You helped get Setael - the goon - lynched, but you were not interested in the Krypt wagon in the slightest.

You said a lot about why he was scummy, but you kept offsetting it with those little blurbs.
I tried to derail the krypt wagon by getting her buddy lynched. Somehow, I don't think that's too bad of a crime.

AV wrote:A significant part of my initial suspicions and the reason that I focused on her for so long were the N0 interactions. But I didn't want to out-and-out say that because I was curious who else she'd try to neighbourize and didn't want to influence that, or how she talked in it.

And how were you expecting to know who else she'd try to neighbourize?
And you were okay letting her go on and continue her business even though she was using the QTs as rolefishing grounds? Because you were curious?

AV wrote: So if I sounded non-committal, it was only because I was pushing her with half the case, and felt I should downplay my tunnelling because I didn't want to admit why I was doing it.

Oh lord.
You purposely didn't push the case that hard because you didn't want to be questioned on it?

AV wrote:I also continuously tried to get her lynched, but barely anyone else was interested in the wagon. It's not surprising it took this long to get her lynched when no one else really wanted to lynch her other than me for a long, long time.

They didn't want to because you were downplaying your case FAR too well.

AV wrote:Also worth noting is her fear of major wagons. She didn't vote for me because she barely ever took a significant place on the major wagons (the exception was the PR wagon that you yourself started). She never voted for Reg yesterday until there were no other votes there. She didn't hammer Seacore when she had the chance; hell, she didn't vote him even when the wagon shifted to Setael. She called out the hammer vote on Quar as scummy, which shows that in her mind, voting in a prominent position on major (mislynch) wagons is a cause for suspicion. This explains why she stayed off mine far better than your theory which could be said of anyone here.

Fair enough.

AV wrote:Are you suggesting scum would kill you off over any of these players?

Hmmm... Power was a claimed, limited watcher who the scum didn't kill when he first claim FULL watcher.
GreyICE was a vigilante who killed his lurking neighbor over a claimed survivor, and who didn't kill N1.

I wouldn't be surprised if I was killed over either of those.

Personally, I'm wondering WHY scum would move themselves during the night. The last scum does NOT need that sort of attention in LyLo.

Regfan · Post Post #1067 (ISO) » Thu Jun 16, 2011 2:24 pm

AV, the final mafia has to get through two days lynches with multiple power role claims out in the open therefore the final mafia would be more inclined to take some form of risk in an attempt to clear themselves. If anything Seacores move towards GreyICE would ressemble a gambit attempt from the mafia therefore I'm unable to determine how your town-read on Seacore stems from this.

Although I don't agree with your reasoning behind the Seacore town-read I still have quite a strong town-read on him myself, I believe the interactions between Krypt, Seacore and Set on day one make them highly unlikely to be partners, furthermore looking at the VCA Seacore was on Krypt throughout a large portion of day one and moved to suggseted Set further on. I fail to see him attempt to double buss in this sort of position when he was already highly suspected.

Nacho, I'm still unsure if I understand the full reasoning for your supposed attempted gambit, it's a basic fact that claiming some form of survival role as a VT would actually lead to an increased likelihood that a power-role would die at night reducing the strength that town has alive. Though, I don't exactly understand the 'scum-slip' that's being pushed in relation to the name-change, there's no chance for a name-counter claim in a setup like this meaning there's highly likely no fake-claims from the mafia, if this is the case what's gained from changing his role-name during the game?

To top that of, I'm uncertain whether I believe that Nacho would attempt to fake a survivor claim with Krypt and Fuzzy being his original partners. He would know that there's a great likelyhood that both would be lynched farily early into the game leading to a situation like this where he's forced to take responsibility for his gambit with a mslynch in hand.

I'm still behind and haven't had a chance to read into the AV or Nacho cases which I will attempt to do later today as well as actually going through and stating my anaylsis over the vote-count placed earlier. At the moment though the more I read the more I am certain of both Seacore and Llama being town due to previous interactions and their claims. I do have to agree with Nacho in regards to TS/Feysal as well though, as much as I may suspect that slot I'm finding it highly, highly unlikely that Krpt/Fuzzy/TS came up with that claim together, claimed it N0 and followed up with him replacing out.

AurorusVox · Post Post #1068 (ISO) » Fri Jun 17, 2011 1:21 am

Nachomamma8 wrote:But you used the vote as a way of getting out of an awkward situation (having your vote on krypt but not really having anything to say about her), and getting out of a promised reread. If PR's vote was so damn bad, you wouldn't just coast by on that, would you? You'd follow up on him. Did you? No. You sat on his wagon until he claimed, and then you switched back to krypt, no explanation.

I did follow up on it as much as I could. Here and here. Don't forget, PR basically disappeared after he was put under pressure. There was one post made between his vote and his distancing from the vote. I commented on that. I commented on him being a non-presence in thread. Then he claimed Watcher - which was a confirmable role - so I returned to my older vote on my second suspect. What's not been explained?

Nachomamma8 wrote:
AV wrote:Krypt was still my second strongest scumread, but I saw ZERO reason for TownPowerrox to claim the way he did. Putting your claim out in bits and pieces "accidentally", made it look like a surefire fakeclaim.

The krypt read was pretty heavily weakened though, considering you opened it up with the whole "This might just be me tunneling again...", and the last thing you said on her was that she was leaving your scumlist because she as making a few decent points. Was there any explanation for that? No.

When I put her back at second scummiest at the start of D2, things had changed. For one thing, she didn't neighbour me N1 like she said she'd do. For another her Packbat hammer comment. For a third, I re-read her in ISO and saw the badthings in her interaction with Jedo. If it hadn't been for PR's failclaim distracting me, she'd have been my #1 suspect.

Nachomamma8 wrote:
AV wrote:The reason is self-evident. Because Seacore was in that spat with Setael, which was the scummiest thing in-thread at that time.

I don't think the reason is self-evident. Why Seacore over Setael?

Because they were guilty of the exact same thing and his wagon had the most votes on it. I was going away for a week and wanted my vote to be useful. I also tried getting support for a Kryptinen wagon that day before I left.

Nachomamma8 wrote:
AV wrote:Shall we just ignore everything else I've said about why I found him scummy?
Or shall we just counterbalance my attempts to get him lynched with your persistent attempts to derail the Krypt wagon yesterday?
You helped get Setael - the goon - lynched, but you were not interested in the Krypt wagon in the slightest.

You said a lot about why he was scummy, but you kept offsetting it with those little blurbs.
I tried to derail the krypt wagon by getting her buddy lynched. Somehow, I don't think that's too bad of a crime.

No. You tried to derail it by getting me mislynched.
And don't even imply you were suspicious of me and Kryptinen being buddies that day. That's a blatant lie, or you wouldn't have called the wagon dumb and stubbornly refused to get on board with it.

Nachomamma8 wrote:
AV wrote:A significant part of my initial suspicions and the reason that I focused on her for so long were the N0 interactions. But I didn't want to out-and-out say that because I was curious who else she'd try to neighbourize and didn't want to influence that, or how she talked in it.

And how were you expecting to know who else she'd try to neighbourize?
And you were okay letting her go on and continue her business even though she was using the QTs as rolefishing grounds? Because you were curious?

I wasn't going to know but it would have been useful information later down the line if people claimed she'd neighboured them. We could have gotten some clears from it. But I'd have corrupted that by letting on too soon.

Nachomamma8 wrote:
AV wrote: So if I sounded non-committal, it was only because I was pushing her with half the case, and felt I should downplay my tunnelling because I didn't want to admit why I was doing it.

Oh lord.
You purposely didn't push the case that hard because you didn't want to be questioned on it?

No. Read what I said.
I didn't push it too hard because that would have shown my hand regarding her role. The last two points you've quoted are connected (that's why they're in the same paragraph). Are you being dense on purpose?

Nachomamma8 wrote:
AV wrote:I also continuously tried to get her lynched, but barely anyone else was interested in the wagon. It's not surprising it took this long to get her lynched when no one else really wanted to lynch her other than me for a long, long time.

They didn't want to because you were downplaying your case FAR too well.

So maybe I overdid it, but the points were still there. No one else wanted to pick up on the points I was making about her actually being scummy, it would have been quite easy for someone to say "No, AV, it's not just you're tunnelling, she is scummy." That wouldn't have made me show that I was onto something from the N0 topic. Also, fuck it, let's not pretend to be bigger than we are here, when I'm the only one saying it, well, I doubted myself. But I wanted to keep pushing the case because I still thought she was scum, and in recent games I'm trying to stick to my guns more when I think I've found scum (I used to be very self-doubtful and back off cases too easily). The fact I still wanted to push it, with people telling me I was tunnelling, made me doubt it again, which made me want to keep tunnelling which made me doubt it, etc etc etc.

Nachomamma8 wrote:
AV wrote:Are you suggesting scum would kill you off over any of these players?

Hmmm... Power was a claimed, limited watcher who the scum didn't kill when he first claim FULL watcher.
GreyICE was a vigilante who killed his lurking neighbor over a claimed survivor, and who didn't kill N1.

Actually, I take your point on PR. (I find it strange he was killed if neither of his neighbours have been killed. Maybe scum had their eyes on killing LF down the line after he hinted at being a PR?) But I don't think scum would kill off a claimed survivor on the first night, in case you

were

a survivor.
And Grey was confirmed town. If you think you'd be killed over a confirmed townie then I want whatever it is you're smoking.

Nachomamma8 wrote:Personally, I'm wondering WHY scum would move themselves during the night. The last scum does NOT need that sort of attention in LyLo.

Regfan has all the reasons: if Grey has another shot, he might have turned it on her. He might have also wanted to keep LF and Seacore apart for whatever reason. Seacore's already gone into this.

Clearly either we're TvT'ing here, or you're trying to mislynch me while white knighting Regfan.
I'm looking forwards to Reg's promised read of our exchange, that might shed some light on which is more likely.

---

Regfan wrote:AV, the final mafia has to get through two days lynches with multiple power role claims out in the open therefore the final mafia would be more inclined to take some form of risk in an attempt to clear themselves. If anything Seacores move towards GreyICE would ressemble a gambit attempt from the mafia therefore I'm unable to determine how your town-read on Seacore stems from this.

Well, it would be a very brave gambit if it was from scum. If Grey had another shot, he had expressed suspicions of Seacore in-thread. Seacore putting himself there would have been hella-crazy. Grey was worried about losing to Seacore scum so I wholly believe he'd have shot Seacore if he'd had the chance. That's suicide for scum.

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1069 (ISO) » Fri Jun 17, 2011 7:57 am

unvote

Friggen hate endgames.

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1070 (ISO) » Fri Jun 17, 2011 8:52 am

I need to think about this better.

First assumption in this position is that Sea is town. He would not have needed to move himself away from me to make me suspect of Reg and risk me thinking he is scum over something like that. I had told him and everyone else that I thought Reg-Krypt was a good chance at a scumteam quite a few times throughout the game. He also claimed vanilla to me early before all the PR claims started coming out fast so I consider that a slight town tell.

Feysal is town because I really doubt that the role is a lie, and for the same reasons I am cleared he is. I dont see scum NOT claiming backup, since its a legitimate role in this game, especially claiming something else entirely as early in the game as he did.

So its one of AV/Reg/Nacho.

The biggest wildcard is Reg. Question here is would he feign ignorance over being moved. Nothing in the QT shows him thinking this much either way, although he did seem to realize that Nacho was my other neighbor, so I have to wonder how he missed ordering a bit. Not sure, will come back to all of this later. I mean, I could easily see a scum flip from any of these three at this point. At least we are running an at least 67% win chance.

Maybe im leaning to AV right now because I *so* want my early game suspicion of him to be right, but we will see.

Feysal · Post Post #1071 (ISO) » Fri Jun 17, 2011 1:12 pm

There is a theory I've been thinking about for why Regfan and Seacore were switched. We've been speculating that scum may have wanted to move away from GreyICE, which would implicate Regfan, but what if the mafia suspected him of being a neighbor doctor instead, and wanted to move him away so he could not protect GreyICE? There has been some speculation about such a role from time to time, and after all the claims and soft claims yesterday, Regfan and Seacore were the only candidates for doctor, if one existed in the game, excluding the possibility of Nacho gambitting.

I feel we're running out of new angles we could try to look at this from. I know I am. Our lynch pool today seems to consist of three players - Regfan, Nacho and AV. LlamaFluff is confirmed, and there seems to be no support for lynching either Seacore or myself.

It occurs to me that the scum now need two mislynches to win, and that means if the last scum is in our lynch pool, they would need to ensure there were at least two other players lynchable to avoid a one-on-one with town. So far, I'd say it is Nacho whose case on AV looks most like an attempt to introduce another potential mislynch.

LlamaFluff · Post Post #1072 (ISO) » Fri Jun 17, 2011 1:18 pm

Problem with that Feysal is that Grey was amazingly obviously a one shot vig given how the play there occured. I will be shocked if anyone really didnt take that into consideration. Also a doctor in this game after the watcher flip? Those roles dont work together without serious scum power.

I just need to think about this some. Honestly I like the point that Krypt never voted for scum with the possible exception of Reg. Newbies are really hard for me to get interactions off of though since their play tends to be non-standard.

Regfan · Post Post #1073 (ISO) » Fri Jun 17, 2011 9:22 pm

Sorry, I have a tendacy to avoid looking into a game when I'm near clueless over who the final scum is, I promise I will force myself to sit down, read through this properly and state my thoughts in the next 24 hours though.

Seacore · Post Post #1074 (ISO) » Fri Jun 17, 2011 10:32 pm

Yeah, I'm kinda lurking til others make a decision. AV is now my third choice. I'd be happy with Reg dying today and Nacho tomorrow.