Mini 1141 - Frogs Mafia 2 - GAME, SET, MATCH

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Vote: nopoint

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Also, your analysis totally ignores the fact that OGML was incredibly juiced to play in this specific game.

Have you seen the walls in the game?

Unvote, vote: mozamis

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That's not what that post is saying.

@MBL, I'd put him at about 35%.

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Bad attacks => target is town.

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The picture he was sketching was clearly one of a possible mislynch being pushed.

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But that wasn't the intent.

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And in fact, that is one reason why I do not think it is particularly good idea for me to list out everybody I am considering Vigging, because then the game will almost naturally start revolving around those players (much like how Kingmaker games have historically run).

I wouldn't mind that at all, personally.

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10 fucking hours with 3 comments in between.

MBL calls this out as a lie twice in his case (which it is, I just checked: 5 posts) and yet you repeat it here obliviously. Did you even bother to read what MBL posted?

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Vote: nopoint

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He's scum.

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MBL, her opinions are notably bland.

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Yeah, but in the former case, you don't get a flip.

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Meanwhile, CES has been buddying to MBL (imho) and definitely answering questions directed to MBL about MBL's intents in posts and things like that, which had already caught my eye.

How is this supposed to support MBL-CES exactly?

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The question was about both. Buddying tends to be scum on town.

Do you think my explanations were accurate? Do you think MBL could've given those explanations himself? Do you think scum would tend to link themselves to their partner like that?

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Bad attacks => target is town.

If I had to pick one CES post I disagreed with the most, it would be this. I think it happens quite often that town picks up things on scum but doesn't know how to articulate it; scum do this, too, but saying that if it's a bad attack the target is town is a complete fallacy.

Obviously bad attacks on both town and scum occur; I'm merely positing correlation. It just looks like a stronger claim because it has been stripped of its context.

The other post you pointed out, MBL, was a bit too reckless. That's why I changed my vote to CES, who is more likely to be scum overall, regardless of your alignment.

Let's say that CES is scum and that you are town, MBL. He could easily be town-buddying and relying on your lingering trust from the last game to get a townread from you. I can see that scenario.

After I re-evaluated from that perspective, I decided I definitely prefer a CES lynch.

I'm noting that you failed to mention that this re-evaluation was a result of my questioning.

@CES: Why did you vote for nopoint for your very first post in the game with no explanation? Why then switch to mozamis?

I thought nopoint was scum. I changed my mind as to who was scummier.

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I quoted the whole post. I didn't strip it of context. I can't quote all the posts around it; that would be far too long and pointless.

This isn't about what you quoted. The problem is that your analysis was off because you ignored the context. That post's sole purpose was to correct mozamis' misinterpretation of one of MBL's posts, whereas you interpreted it as if I were expounding my point of view. The situation called for simplicity, not nuance.

My vote switch actually wasn't a result of your questioning, but your post where you looked scummier to me did seal the deal.

Looking back I have trouble determining to which post you're referring. Link?

But WHY did you think they were scum?

I'm too lazy to really go into that right now. Suffice it to say, the reasons should be obvious.

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Do you think the intent of that post was to defend myself?

And I read the other post in context and still disagreed.

Elaborate. Do you think my post was ill-suited to achieve its stated purpose or do you think it's always scummy to present simplifications?

As for "being too lazy," if you think that helps me reverse my scumread on you, you'd be wrong.

Obviously.

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Do you disagree with the nuanced position?

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Superficially, his play here is definitely similar but whereas I had a gut town read on him there he feels a little off here. He wasn't as "jerkish" but, no offense to the players here, the standard of play was higher in Oldy; he was a little negative towards Ether at times though, so it's definitely not without precedent.

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Activity would be higher if nopointscum were dead.

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There's an insistence and certainty to his play that I don't think matches up with lazy town.

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A nopointlynch would obviate the need for a replacement.

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Pay attention to nopointscums.

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CES, what do you think of Amrun?

Townish; her reasoning seems naive but genuine.

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Just letting you know I'm still catching up, but I hope to post something tomorrow and will definitely contribute by Monday at the earliest.

*looks at non-existent watch*

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P.S. iamausername should claim.

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You're at L-1 due to PJ's ability, iam.

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I know.

CONFESS.

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Just letting you know I'm still catching up, but I hope to post something tomorrow and will definitely contribute by Monday at the earliest.

*looks at non-existent watch*

Stritly speaking, I did say at the earliest, even if I didn't mean to.

If we read it strictly, the "I hope" part is a lie, so you lose either way.

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Just letting you know I'm still catching up, but I hope to post something tomorrow and will definitely contribute by Monday at the earliest.

*looks at non-existent watch*

Stritly speaking, I did say at the earliest, even if I didn't mean to.

If we read it strictly, the "I hope" part is a lie, so you lose either way.

Untrue, I genuinely hoped to have contributed sooner.

I don't dispute that. The point is that if you read "at the earliest" as a mistake (as one should), then "will definitely contribute" is a lie, whereas if you read it strictly, the "I hope" part is a lie, so you don't gain anything from reading it strictly, i.e. I'm just being pedantic.

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I've said several times that I think he's being long-winded on purpose to obfuscate his point and make it look more impressive than it actually is, shown again by his point-blank refusal to condense it upon request. I also think he's trying to lead the town, but that doesn't make him town either; that's a null.

He's always longwinded. Just look at Oldy mafia if you don't believe me. MBL is tough to read.

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Except for the part where he's totes getting lynched.

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Its effect is irrelevant. He does it independently of his alignment.

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Way to dismiss the crucial scenario out of hand. B3 is exactly what claiming is about.

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If the claim is confirmable, we'll be saved a mislynch. If the claim is sufficiently powerful, the town is likely to hedge its bets and let the player live for at least a while. If the claim is particularly believable, then the lynch may be avoided as a result of that.

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apok or you

I'm waiting for iam to claim/die.

P.S. you didn't fix Bella's vote.

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Badgering Meransiel instead of claiming isn't pro-town.

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1) Meransiel, your reasoning is terrible. Neighbors are slightly more valuable than VTs if they're both town. There are absolutely no balance concerns here.
2) Revealing that was totally not a scum move. (For one thing, if he were scum, then the scum would already have that info.)

Oh, and the mafia helping to find PR thing? That is exactly what you're doing by forcing iam to claim.

Nope. If iam is a weak role, we lynch him. If iam is a strong role, then the scum will know iam's role, but it's still a net gain because they have to use a nk instead of us wasting a lynch.

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Given that iam was on the block, if Meransiel's scum who's trying to get Bella lynched here, then odds are he's protecting iam.

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Then why are you voting for Meransiel?

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You have no clue what you're talking about.

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Meransiel unvoted => you can vote for iam.

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That entire post is based on the notion that L-1 is not a big deal, which is true but not relevant. Iam is the consensus lynch. We're just giving him a chance to claim.

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+ deadline

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We may need you to hammer, wicked, just fyi.

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According to PJ, his dayvig had the secondary effect of lowering the lynch threshold by 1, which would make it L-1.

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I can confirm Bella's LoLplaying.

CES, who are your suspects, including iam/no point, and why?

MBL asked me this question before; the reasons are self-evident.

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CES, I asked now because several things have happened in the game, and "self evident" is not an appropriate response.

The truth is always appropriate.

Hammer away.

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Kunkstar7 claims in his next post.

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Bzzt. Wrong answer.

Vote: kunkstar7

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It's okay if you self-vote here.

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That's exactly what I'm implying.

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Apok claims in his next post.

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That was just a bluff, sorry MBL.

Amrun, why do you think I'm a tracker?

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CES, why bluff? What were you expecting Apok to say if she's scum, and how could anything actually really implicate her if you're bluffing? Doesn't bluffing just needlessly out roles if Apok is town with little or no benefit if Apok is scum?

It wasn't just Apok's reaction I was after. If Apok had been the scum who committed the nightkill, she could've claimed to have targetted PJ or, thinking she was caught, give away her alignment some other way. Outing a protective role would've been painful, but I felt it was worth the risk.

I'm just going to state at this point that I'm a tracker who tracked kunkstar7 N1 since I'm fairly sure I want to share my N2 result before the end of this day anyway.

Vote: MrBuddyLee

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MBL feels off.

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Lack of scum motive anyway.

That said, my current guess for the scum team is scotmany12 + MBL by process of elimination.

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Who?

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I got her down for "neighbors are somewhat more likely to be town" and "it makes sense to let a claimed neighbor perform the nightkill".

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Bella needs prodding.

MBL should vote.

Meransiel shouldn't be trying to guide my choices.

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Why do you think Implosion would've made the first nightkill, MBL?

Amrun, we're lynching scotmany or MBL today.

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(I am suspect of the 2 scum + traitor possibility given (1) 7 days for N1 and (2) 2 days for N2 hint that a required process that existed N1 no longer needs to occur--the discussion/agreement about who to attempt to integrate as a traitor is a possibility.)

I complained to Shanba about the excessive length of Night 1 and he agreed with me. It's meaningless.

nightkill analysis:
PJ was a weird nightkill, considering he'd made it clear he was a 1-shot vig while CES had the potential to still investigate. Either scum didn't fear being investigated by CES N2 or they wanted to frame me by killing PJ--dude didn't express suspicion of ANYONE else after mozamis died. CES claimed to suspect Apok and MBL end of D1, so that's another reason to suspect Apok less--CES might have been the preferential nightkill for her over PJ.

I think the scum were worried about protection. Consider that they didn't kill PJ N1.

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Hint: make time.

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CONFESS.

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I want you to confess to your heinous crimes against frogkind.

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Then why did you misinterpret "CONFESS."? Sounds like a guilty conscience to me.

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Dammit, scot, no. Why would a scum power role target me? If I had tracked you to me, you'd be on my town list.

I'm not even voting for you.

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MBL, there's a bit of apathy going around, so no, I'm not particularly surprised.

Everyone should vote, preferably for MBL.

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You know who else heard incessant drumbeats?

The Master.

GOT YOU NOW.

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Scotmany12 and Apok's claims are pretty convincing too, so that just leaves MBL and Bella by process of elimination.

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You're like 100% sure apok is telling the truth?

I don't know any more than you do.

I do tend to believe him though.

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Missed the new page - given what he's claimed, it's pretty darn obvious he's town.

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Yes.

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Missed the new page - given what he's claimed, it's pretty darn obvious he's town.

You sure that claim wasn't a lie?

Lack of scum motive to do so. Heck, I could've tracked him last night.

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I'm saying it would've been silly to lie.

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This game needs more votes.

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This game needs a kick in the ass.

Obvious solution is to lynch MBLscum.

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He's presumably referencing the fact that you survived and won all 3 of your scum games.

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Hey hey, let's lynch MBL.

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The dude's scum.

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It doesn't help that we've already lynched nopoint.

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I got prodded because you guys haven't lynched MBL yet. Get on that.

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I see no problem with both neighbors being town. Especially considering PJ only gives the town an extra "lynch" if a nightkill is prevented.

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Lynch MBL.

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14) At deadline, a majority of a majority is sufficient to lynch. For example, with 12 players, 7 would lynch normally and 4 will lynch at deadline -> the player with the most votes over four is lynched. However, if there are two players on the same number of votes, the player who reached the tie level first will be lynched.

If that unofficial vote count is correct, MBL will be lynched. Woo.

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I think everyone basically agrees that one of the neighbors has to be scum for balance reasons.

Not at all. This argument may've a teensy bit convincing prior to scotmany flipping not-doc, but it has completely fallen apart now. Neighborhoods just aren't that important balance-wise.

AND YES, IT IS MYLO, SO NO STUPID VOTES. EVERYONE UNVOTE RIGHT NOW.

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And don't forget you have two votes.

^scum

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Yes.

Amrun and Implosion should claim.

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The implication that he was a protective role was obvious (I kinda wonder if he did it on purpose to get himself nightkilled).

Send me a message.

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I'll PM it to Shanba, so whenever she sends it to you, you'll get it.

he*

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I tracked implosion N2 and Bella N3.

NO SILLY VOTES

Amrun, do you think Meransiel-Bella could be our scum team?

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Amrun, please give me your top two scum pairs.

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I think it's an outside chance that they[Bella and Meransiel]'re the scumteam.

Merensiel, implosion
Merensiel, Bella

So it follows that you must think there's a pretty darn decent chance implosion is scum yet you had failed to mention him Today up to this point.

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Tracker is already too powerful for 2 scum (note that tracker's power relies on nightkilling scum:scum ratio) unless maybe it's Oman with his 2 votes in which case we'll mislynch today and discover that there is just 1 scum left Tomorrow by virtue of the game not ending.

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We don't lose in that case. 4 people alive -> 3 to lynch -> townies can lynch Oman; Oman needs to help to get a lynch.

I believe it's Amrun-implosion, so yes, I'm in favour of an implolynch. I still haven't gotten that Amrun message though, which I want to get first.

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A one-shot is a real PR. Dayvig is a very powerful role.

Isn't. It makes the numbers even, so without a successful protect or such, it just replaces a lynch.

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I stand by my guess that it's Amrun-implosion.

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The horror! The horror!

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Woo.

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Good set-up. Good play all round. Sorry for lynching you, MBL.

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I have to say you played an important part in setting me on the right track, so I can't deny your approach was effective.