Why I Believe hitogoroshi Is Serial Killer
presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the Responsible Town degree
Author's note: The explanation I gave to Fishythefish was very eloquently worded, and apparently I cannot quote it word for word, so tell me if I reworded it funny or something.
Very early on Day 1, a few people presented some probabilities for scum placement between the three temples. A theory was presented that there were three scum because it "seemed right for this size setup" (
hitogoroshi 46).
For the past two days, I have been assuming a 4-man scum team plus the scum god. It made sense, since 25% of 18 was 4.5, and I rounded up for worst-case scenario; the range of scum:town that I have seen goes from 21% to 28%, so I figured my calculation made sense. While I was rereading the thread, I came across the above cited post by hitogoroshi, and I thought something was off. I questioned him, and he gave his justification behind believing in a 3-man scum team (
hitogoroshi 1575).
I asked myself, "Why would he assume that there would be double-kills every night?" That is the only way this game can go to Day 3 LyLo. I can see scum slipping the number on their team, but this implied extra knowledge on the part of hitogoroshi; a town vigilante would have made the same guess as I did, since they would not know about the makeup of any anti-town parties. However, a serial killer benefits from two extra pieces of information that neither town nor scum have, and that is that the scum team is reduced in size (for balancing purposes) and that there would be double-kills every night.
Therefore, I believe hitogoroshi is the serial killer. I thought back to DrippingGoofball's fervent defending of hitogoroshi despite heat from players such as farside22 and Lost Butterfly, and I realized that hitogoroshi most likely claimed a power role to DrippingGoofball. Serial killers claim vigilante because that is the claim that makes the most sense.
