In the Court of the Gods (Game Over)

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Assuming 3 scum, it's 4/225 that they are all paired together.

For them to be paired with the scum god too, it's 4/675.

Chances are slim that scums will be paired together like that.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Er... hold on a second.

2/90 for all in same priesthood.

2/270 with their god.

[DeathRowKitty]

(Assuming three scum, which seems about right for this size setup, there's only a 1/9 chance they're all together, and only a 1/27 chance they're together with the scum Immortal).

OBJECTION!

Start by choosing one arbitrary scum player and putting him an an arbitrary group. There is then a 4/14 chance of placing the next scum with him and a 3/13 chance of placing the one after him in the same group. Overall, that's 6/91, or a little less than 1/15. Factor in a 1/3 chance they'll be put with their god and that's 6/273.

Alternatively, there are 15!/(5!^3) ways to put players with gods. There are 3 gods to put scum with times 12C5 times 7C5 ways to arrange the town, given positions for scum. Divide to get 6/91.

Just saying.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Kitty, it isn't 6/91. You forgot to multiply by 5/15. You simply did 4/14 * 3/13 which gives you 6/91.

[DrippingGoofball]

Or we can ignore these probabilities, and lynch scum wherever we find them.

[Me=Weird]

Vote: Lady Lamdadelta

Nobody cares about statistics. Nobody likes scum. You used statistics. You are scum.

[DeathRowKitty]

It doesn't matter where the first scum is placed unless you're looking for scum to be placed with a specific god.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Fuck. It's 2/91.

FUCK THE MATH. LET'S JUST LYNCH SOME SCUMS.

P-Edit: I was ninja'd by 4 people saying this.

[DeathRowKitty]

Vote: Lady Lamdadelta
Nobody cares about statistics. Nobody likes scum. You used statistics. You are scum.

Scum number 1 found. It's combinatorics, not statistics.

Vote: Me=Weird

[Andrius]

THE GODESS IS CORRECT.

Statistics is FTL.
NOBODY SPECIAL LIKES SCUM.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Andrius, I believe it is GODDESS.

With 2 D's.

[DrippingGoofball]

Andrius, I believe it is GODDESS.

With 2 D's.

Please leave bra sizes out of this.

In other news, LLD is my first town read.

[hitogoroshi]

It depends how Zor randomized it as to whether it's my numbers or LL's. (And I humbly disagree with the "Statistics FTL" crowd - I think there's real power in being informed as to the odds for the various scum/immortal pairings.)

[Andrius]

DO NOT DARE TAKE ARMS AGAINST THE SERVANTS OF OUR MISTRESS.

In the infamous words of a dead terrorist: I kill you!

predit: O_o

[Lady Lambdadelta]

DO NOT DARE TAKE ARMS AGAINST THE SERVANTS OF OUR MISTRESS.

In the infamous words of a dead terrorist: I kill you!

predit: O_o

I think we should leave the factional warfare to the scums, don't you Andrius?

[themanhimself]

My damn god has yet to post. Can I switch religions?

[zoraster]

For what it's worth, I randomized the positions as follows:

1-5 are God A's followers, 6-10 God B's, 11-15 God C's.

then I fed numbers 1-15 into a random list generator and the first X numbers (where X is the number of scum in this game) were scum. For example, if there are seven scum in this game and my randomizer listed 3,5,7,9,13,14,15 as numbers, then there would be 2 scum under Gods A and B and three under God C.

[DrippingGoofball]

In other words, we're scum hunting as usual.

Jack is going to need to die.

[Me=Weird]

It depends how Zor randomized it as to whether it's my numbers or LL's. (And I humbly disagree with the "Statistics FTL" crowd - I think there's real power in being informed as to the odds for the various scum/immortal pairings.)

Can you explain why? Isn't who's acting scummy what matters? Why do we care about probabilities when they don't relate to anything in-game?

In other words, we're scum hunting as usual.

Jack is going to need to die.

I endorse this in the name of multi-liners.
So, questions.
1. Short deadline or long deadline?
2. Double-vote or immunity?
3. Do you agree that questions look better when there are three of them?

1. Short deadline.
2. Double-vote.
3. Yes.

Limited access on most tuesdays.

[DrippingGoofball]

NO.

1. LONG deadline.

I INSIST ON THIS

. Long deadlines favor TOWN.
2. I'm going to have to piss away that double-vote on Day 1 when it counts the least, I can only grant it every 4 days.
3. Yes, yes and yes.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

NO.

1. LONG deadline.

I INSIST ON THIS

. Long deadlines favor TOWN.
2. I'm going to have to piss away that double-vote on Day 1 when it counts the least, I can only grant it every 4 days.
3. Yes, yes and yes.

1. Agreed. Long is better.
2. Save the Night Immunity for later in the game. I agree. It'll be more useful at that time.
3. I see what you did there DGB.

[hitogoroshi]

Can you explain why? Isn't who's acting scummy what matters? Why do we care about probabilities when they don't relate to anything in-game?

A lot of scumtells involve information being somewhere it shouldn't be. Understanding the probable links between mortals and immortals, scum and town, helps us track the information.

Though on reflection this is the sort of speculation better kept pocketed until someone actually catches something, so.

1. Short deadline or long deadline?
2. Double-vote or immunity?
3. Do you agree that questions look better when there are three of them?

1. Depends on the dynamic of the day. There are such things as too short and too long of days, and both of them are detrimental to the town. The first day should probably have a pretty long deadline, at any rate.

2. Double-voter seems pretty pointless today. Immunity is nice if a probably-getting-nk'd player pops up; otherwise it wouldn't be particularly detrimental to have them both off cooldown.

3. Ambivalent.

[Nobody Special]

You mind bolding and coloring your text, NS?
Thanks.

Immortals do not take requests from mere Priests.

Cut the BEHOLD MY AWESOME POWER routine, please.

You were randomly assigned a role

that is unlynchable and has some other powers. You're not alignment confirmed, and if you are town, you don't have any scumhunting tools we don't have. Agree with Andrius, or don't; either way, you'll have to explain your reasoning instead of appealing to your randomly assigned pretend authority.

In The Court of The Gods Game Specific Rules

Immortal Gods

5. Though the gods will not be selected randomly, their alignment will be.

I am one of The Chosen.

[hitogoroshi]

You mind bolding and coloring your text, NS?
Thanks.

Immortals do not take requests from mere Priests.

Cut the BEHOLD MY AWESOME POWER routine, please.

You were randomly assigned a role

that is unlynchable and has some other powers. You're not alignment confirmed, and if you are town, you don't have any scumhunting tools we don't have. Agree with Andrius, or don't; either way, you'll have to explain your reasoning instead of appealing to your randomly assigned pretend authority.

In The Court of The Gods Game Specific Rules

Immortal Gods

5. Though the gods will not be selected randomly, their alignment will be.

I am one of The Chosen.

Huh. I missed that. Seems a bit clashing with the whole Random-Assurance-Method but hey.

Regardless, the meat of my point is still intact. "Immortals do not take requests from mere Priests" is not an answer to anything.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

My god doth expect too much from his priests.

I will not support such behavior.

You will explain your actions to this court, and while you are in this court, you will be held accountable to your actions!

There are other ways of ostracizing you than lynching you, God of Judgment.