Mini 1094 - Mariposa Peak Mafia - Game Over!

[Rhinox]

Am I supposed to respond to 246?

I think you just did.

But if you want a direct question to answer, why BQ first instead of sims?

[Thor665]

Thor:
I called him on it. But you refused to acknowledge it - important, as he is creating a relationship between you two. And you are trying as hard as you can to keep it down low. Even you know, i'm sure, that your case against poweree is garbage.

Making garbage cases is fine, day one, as it creates discussion. But your follow-through perverts any discussion really, and just tries for a mislynch.

I didn't refuse to acknowledge it because for me to refuse to do so I would have to accept it as scummy, and I don't. What did you want, a post of me quoting you going 'this is possibly a scumtell, but I don't agree with it, Carrot should/should not continue' If i did that for everything that was raised in thred (even if only tangentially involving me) I would be responding to a lot of stuff. AGar and I are friends and we are likely to joke and be friendly while playing a game of Mafia together. I've called AGar on things he's done I've considered scummy, and I haven't called him on things he's done that you consider scummy. That seems pretty darn normal.

The Powerrox case was weak (or garbage if you prefer) - but at the time which case do you think was better? I appreciated getting the 2nd vote pressure on there to get PR to respond to. I actually since then think the case has become stronger which is why I'm still there, but I don't intrinsically find AGar's hop to be scummy. What case should he have been on at that time that wouldn't have been scummy? Is it only because of the relation between us you find it so questionable? If so, the relative strength/weakness of the case is pretty meaningless since your focus is the buddying tell and really all you've done is go 'look, AGar is buddying and Thor doesn't think it's scummy' which isn't the most super exciting case I've seen.

To me, your original response was not true to my original point. By restating, I thought I was clarifying. You ignored the main point and instead, kind of tried to turn it back around on me, using a different line of logic than I originally did.

Actually all I was trying to do was show the inherent weakness of the logic you used.
Besides, your tell is that I'm the SK because I leaped to a presumption. I showed you where I drew the presumption and other than doing that there's no way to respond to a case as ephemeral as yours as you'll either see the obvious information in Gud's posts that I used or you won't. What do you want me to respond to besides that?

@AGar - logic for Gud vote now please.

[ConfidAnon]

Actually all I was trying to do was show the inherent weakness of the logic you used.
Besides, your tell is that I'm the SK because I leaped to a presumption. I showed you where I drew the presumption and other than doing that there's no way to respond to a case as ephemeral as yours as you'll either see the obvious information in Gud's posts that I used or you won't. What do you want me to respond to besides that?

I pressed you for a response mainly to see your reaction. Admittedly, I'm not the best at this stuff, but I was thinking that if my line of thinking had merit, you would react in a manner that would incriminate yourself. You were fairly calm (though snarky, which I appreciate ), which looks good for you.

Unvote

I'd really like to see Gud's claim and response to my defense before someone hammers, accidentally or otherwise.

[Guderian]

So agar, instead of wanting me to claim, you put me at L-1 where any of the frothing mases in this game could come in and hammer, and then demand a claim? Without saying anything else?

It nice how you made such a horrific vote, so its blatant for everyone else to see.

For one, Im not going to say anything about my role unless someone unvotes, because I don't want a stray missile to come in here and blow me up if they 'don't believe it.'

I was kidding about claiming serial killer, because in the post I quoted and then claimed I think I made it evident I may not something more about the game then the average townie might. But claiming serial killer worked better than I could ever have hoped. It galvanized this town, and forced people into situations they are uncomfortable with.

This clearly hurts the anti-town factions, because they must be more precise with their words. And it also gave them a chance to slip onto this alluring wagon, which seems like a slam dunk. When I don't flip SK however, they will be in a pickle.

From all this, I believe several things have become more clear than normal.

1. Agar is almost definitely scum or SK
2. powerrox I am pretty confident is Scum as well.
3. I would still peg confid as the last scum at the moment, but am less sure. I wouldn't discount seraphim. He shows up, places a vote, and departs.
4. Town reads on a few people, more apparent than before.

[ConfidAnon]

For one, Im not going to say anything about my role unless someone unvotes, because I don't want a stray missile to come in here and blow me up if they 'don't believe it.'

Refusal to claim is more likely to launch a stray missle, and incredibly scummy when your at L-1.

Also, it's noted that you still ignored my defense.

[Guderian]

We both posted at 2:11. I'll look now, I just got home brother.

[Guderian]

I looks good, nice defense. Well laid out. There didn't seem to be any specific questions launched at me, So I think thats why I didn't respond.

I still think you're slightly scummy. Are you concerned because my vote is still on you?

[sims5487]

I was kidding about claiming serial killer

LOLWUT

[Guderian]

If you think I was serious.... please lets not go there.

[ConfidAnon]

I looks good, nice defense. Well laid out. There didn't seem to be any specific questions launched at me, So I think thats why I didn't respond.

I still think you're slightly scummy. Are you concerned because my vote is still on you?

Thank you. I know we simulposted. When that occurred that was the second asking.

I was concerned because there were blatant misreps (albeit, probably unintentional) in your case, and I was wondering how their reveal to you would affect you.

[Guderian]

Let me explain my reasoning to everyone.

Here is the data from the last 50 closed games

Latest 50 Closed 3:9 Games (wins):

Town

: 12

Mafia

: 38

This is how mafia wins..... They do nothing. 76% of the time winning is too significant a percentage to overlook and proclaim it a particular mafia groups well playing. For mafia to win these setup's they essentially have to show up.

This is how town wins.... well actually it looks like town doesn't ever win. Town is only 12/50 in the last 50 games. What does that mean? People are playing the same way, the same 'accepted way', doing townie things and what have you, and they end up losing. Badly. Almost every game.

What does that mean. Should the status quo continue, me and the town are likely to lose this game. Its raw numbers. Debate it all you want. If we played the 'normal' way, heres what usually happens.

Day 1: Usually a noob/VI/person people dont like, is lynched. This is a subtle policy lynch. People aren't overt or even conscious about it. But one little 'scumslip' is magnified, and the town pounces. If you debate this, look at the number of games Thor, or Glork, or Yos2, or anyone prominent, is lynched day one. Never happens.

N1: Random person killed

Day 2: Analysis over the townie killing. Who was on the wagon! Usually, its just some misguided town and maybe a scum or two. Usually not that many. They dont have to provoke town into lynching. So after much debate, it comes down to two people, one a questionable townie, one scum. Townie, perhaps is lynched.

Day 3-5 # days or lylo. Good luck.

So what did I do? Something scum never want to have happen. I obliterated the status quo. I rocked the boat. It may not have been popular, but it forced reactions out of people that maybe they didnt want to give.

That is why I claimed serial killer and let it ride. To see. To observe. To hope that maybe, town can win this one.

From this, I believe we have gotten some of what we wanted. We separated the sincere newbies from those with malicious intent, and forced the 'experienced' players to respond. I would argue my play this game has been the most pro town out of anybodies.

[Guderian]

I guess I could claim if a lot of people really wanted, though I am loath too. It helps town greatly if my information remains secret, but to prevent a known mislynch (from my POV) I will if I have too.

[sims5487]

Wait. So you want us to believe, in retrospect, that this was all some sort master plan you concocted from the minute you claimed SK to shake up the status quo and change some perceived archetype in the game in an effort to confuse the scum into losing?

This does not even begin to approach ludicrous (or Ludacris, for that matter).

[Guderian]

Are you afraid of a little rocking? I see you as pretty overly concerned with what you believe as 'not-acceptable behavior'. Unfortunately, if I am lynched, you'll probably be lynched tomorrow (not any fault of yours, just look at the statistic), and the town will probably be doomed by then. So if you really are town, I need you to consider what you're saying. If youre scum, keep doing whatever.

Just remember:

76%.

why change?

[sims5487]

I don't know if I'd call it boat-rocking so much as I would call it a massive covering-my-tracks maneuver.

Besides, if we're going to start crunching statistics, let's crunch statistics. Sure the percentage is 76%, but do you really think 50 games is a large enough sample size to make that sort of claim and have it be strong enough to support your wacky "I meant for this all along, guys!" strategy?

Additionally, if you're the mastermind you claim to be when it comes to predicting the behavior of townies and scum within a game, how can you be surprised that everyone has turned on you? Why even try to fight your lynching? Surely you saw this coming...

[Reckamonic]

The only rocking I see is "hey, let's do something stupidly scummy and see what happens"

here's what happens: You get lynched

Please self-vote.

[Reckamonic]

oh, and by the way:

3:9 Closed Mini Normals (171 games) (46.6%)

Mafia wins: 107 (62.6%)
Town Wins: 62 (36.3%)
Draw: 2 (1.1%)


3:1:8 Closed Mini Normals (3rd party = SK) (77 games) (21%)

Mafia wins: 35 (45.4%)
Town wins: 37 (48.1%)
SK wins: 5 (6.5%)


2:1:9 Closed Mini Normals (3rd party = SK) (31 games) (8.5%)

Mafia wins: 6 (19.3%)
Town wins: 20 (64.5%)
SK wins: 5 (16.2%)


2:10 Closed Mini Normals (13 games) (3.5%)

Mafia wins: 10 (77%)
Town wins: 3 (23%)


2:2:8 Closed Mini normals (8 games) (2.2%)

Mafia wins: 5 (62.5%)
Town wins: 3 (37.5%)

Try again in another game.

[singersigner]

I would argue my play this game has been the most pro town out of anybodies.

Yes. You will argue that. And the fact that you even have to shows that it really wasn't. Pro-town is what it is. There aren't any real discrepancies about it.

Gud, I have a question for you (or maybe a couple):
-You say you got what you wanted, but isn't it more pro-town to get what the town wanted? Which is to not have to decide whether your play was for our benefit or not. I don't find your cocky attitude or your self-righteousness that you've actually done some town some good to be appealing at all.
-What about false-claiming SK did you think we would understand?
-Did you account for the potential mislynch (if you're now telling the truth) that might happen if no one agreed with you?
-Can you reiterate what information we were supposed to gain from this again?

[Seraphim]

He accepts that VI's aren't necessarily scum, and that going after them is scummy.

Misrep based on confirmation bias. VIs aren't always scum but certain players are always going to look scummy when you push their buttons.

He basically votes for Guder for being a VI.

LOL STRAWMAN TRY AGAIN. Guder isn't a VI. If he's town, his play was stupid, yes, but not indicative of a VI.

Baseless complacency. Indicative of inside knowledge. Definitely a scum-tell.

If I have insider knowledge,
A. Why baselessly declare players town?
B. Why Thor in paticular?
C. How does it make any sense for us to be scum together which you seem to be implying based on your vote?


Also, BY THE WAY, ever heard of GUT? I use it, a lot. I find it to be highly superior to trying to use logic because logic tends to fail people in a game of illogical people and illogical actions. Thor gives out a solid pro-town vibe. Am I supposed to outline some sort of town case for him?

P.S. Declaring players town scares the shit out of scum.

Now to Guderian:

Dear God, your ego is hilarious. Now, Mr. Mastermind, are you going to sit around while we lynch you and ignore all of your 'hard work' or are you going to make a claim?

Also, the numbers, I think, shouldn't be attributed so much to site meta as to the harshness of a 9:3 game for town.

[Guderian]

Sera, if 9:3 is so harsh on town, shouldn't town do something to try and turn that around?

here's what happens: You get lynched

Please self-vote

self voting. didnt know that was good for town.

(by the way, from my view, All of sims/singer/power had the same reaction to my claim, which I didn't expect. All are newer, so I expected the scum among them to act differently. But, Basically along the lines of, he claims SK, hes mafia, lynch him! This is troubling because I think they have good intentions, but if/when we lynch me, one of these people will be mislynch fodder on day 2. Which will put town in exactly the situation we were trying to avoid.)

[sims5487]

by the way, from my view, All of sims/singer/power had the same reaction to my claim, which I didn't expect. All are newer, so I expected the scum among them to act differently. But, Basically along the lines of, he claims SK, hes mafia, lynch him!

Oh this is absolute nonsense. I didn't think you were scum only because you claimed SK. Go back and read my posts; that was just one folly in a long list of scummy moves you've made this whole game.

[Guderian]

I would point out the folly in your argument, but I think you're town at the moment. Anyways, I'm done answering all these nattering arguments. People like recka are just sliding under every bodies radars since I am basically "confirmed scum" in the words of several people in this game.

For reference, this is the post where you first mentioned me as scum, and then voted me.

I'm starting to think maybe Gud is scum and claiming SK in hopes that we'd offer allegiance (as CarrotCake has done), thus ensuring the survival of at least one scum to endgame. Other people have pointed out some scummy behavior from CC; it would make sense that she, as scum, would try to jumpstart a ridiculous campaign to offer him sanctuary and use him as anti-scum rather than anti-town. Thoughts?

Unvote
Vote: Guderian

[sims5487]

Right. So then all any of this has shown was that I am sticking to my vote because the peak of your scum-tell pile is resting comfortably in the ionosphere somewhere.

[singersigner]

by the way, from my view, All of sims/singer/power had the same reaction to my claim, which I didn't expect. All are newer, so I expected the scum among them to act differently. But, Basically along the lines of, he claims SK, hes mafia, lynch him!

Oh this is absolute nonsense. I didn't think you were scum only because you claimed SK. Go back and read my posts; that was just one folly in a long list of scummy moves you've made this whole game.

This.

[Guderian]

I might as well say this now.

Sims singer and power NEED TO PROMISE that tomorrow, If I am lynched, they will not support ANY lynch on any of the other two. The lynch will look tempting. It will seem to make sense. Its going to seem tempting. But unless there is a cop with a guilty, you ARE NOT to lynch among your little threesome. Day 3 and on, sure, but tomorrow, please dont. If any of you are attacked, you MUST defend each other. Otherwise town will almost definitely lose.