PYP 4: New Homes, Same Problems (Day 5)

[LlamaFluff]

llama have you played with ben before.

Last game I remember with him was a long time ago where I was a wierd third party-ish role who had to help scum but only knew who one scum was, and he was town, looked really pro-town, and then got himself modkilled. May have played with him more recently though, although if I did he was far less memorable there.

[Parama]

Okay, look at the voting patterns at the start of the game.

Unvote:
Vote: Guderian

3 pages later...

VOTE: Guderian

Less than an hour later...

VOTE: slowsilver

Soon...

unvote
vote slowsilver

unvote, vote:slowsilver

Consecutive posts.
Then...

VOTE: slowsilver

VOTE: slowsilver

Consecutive again.

Nice big counterwagon springing up though there's some town votes on there too. The timing (after the Guderian wagon looks like it has a chance of taking off) is just too convenient...

Guderian's posts themselves:

Vote Andrius Kitoari's replacement. This is a real vote.

I agree, more wagoning.

/self-explanatory
Yeah... so many things wrong here. You're not voting... anyone... yet you call for a bandwagon. On a stupid BM vote. For no reason.

Fate, im not sure what you're trying to pull, and you can drop the aggressive act. Do you think you appear town by trying to be aggressive and getting your name out there a lot? Its annoying.

Comedian of the year award goes to...

parama, that's quite a list you've got there.

Passive as hell.

If youre trying to get scum lynched, maybe you should vote yourself, instead of me? Just a thought.

How about a FATE case on you?

1. the second letter of your name is an a
2. the second letter of mafia is an a
3. YOUR SCUM SPAM SPAM SPAM

Wow. You're really serious here? And you're still not voting. The lack of a vote is quite damning. If you think someone is scum... you vote them.

Why did I change numbers to 1,1? Because I believed that no one else would pick them, thus I could choose the role I wanted.

The fact that you changed your numbers is a scumtell in itself <____<

What if scum all picked 6?

This is just being dumb, but also a huge distraction. This may be the worst logic I've ever seen.

There's just no way these posts are coming from a town player. It's ridiculous how scummy this guy is, even without the voting patterns of the thread.

[Jack]

The last two pages are terrible.

[LlamaFluff]

Parama - He is just bad town who is arrogent because he got top pick and now has loud people yelling at him making him act like an ass. Almost positive he is town here. I wont vote him outside of him explicitly claiming to be scum.

[Parama]

That's because I'm posting. Don't worry, I don't have anything worth posting atm unless someone asks.
@Llama - That's not the problem I have with him. I am arrogant as hell always. That doesn't stop me from scumhunting while also getting people to side with me. And claiming to change numbers is in fact explicitly claiming to be scum. But whatever. We don't NEED your vote to lynch him.

[Parama]

Also can you change your sig? I don't like being reminded of Popularity Mafia.

[Guderian]

ok, I checked the other pick your power games

#3 3/5 unique numbers scum
#2 1/2 unique numbers scum
#1 2/4 unique numbers scum (keep in mind there were two mafia groups here)

So I take back my previous point, it is HIGHLY likely that in the four unique numbers we have in this game, two are scum. (The actual percentage is over 50%) But, I can make this a lot easier. I know I am town, so 2/3 of these people are more than likely to be scum:

1. volkan
2. chkflip
3. gandalf

It might even be more benficial to force all four of us to claim, and examine the picks. Some roles will definitely make more sence from a scum side v. a town side. In this way, we could potentially wipe out 40% of the scum team over day 1 and 2. (or potentially day 1/ night)

With these numbers in mind, I reread the other three people.

I have ordered them in order of scumminess:
Gandalf
chk
volk

Why?

Gandalf:

Oh, and Hoopla had such sound reasoning behind most of her post up until then. Why exactly are we voting for me?

nervous?

Oh wow. Pretty much what Pom said.

VOTE: slowsilver

sheeping.

I had a big post responding to the case against me and agreeing with the case against Guderian

there was a case against you and me? I think it was based more off number selection. Look defensive.
You then proceed to answer WHY you dont have the case instead of posting the case!

chk:

Retry:
- 3] I think it's likelier for scum to double up on a choice that they think is more sound than others.

looks like diversion tactics

- (9,5) were the first numbers that popped into my head. Completely random

were they really?

volk:

With the other two above him, he falls to the bottom. His posts look sound so far, I cant see anything that would push him too heavily one way or the other.

with all this in mind

Vote: Gandalf5166

[LlamaFluff]

That's because I'm posting. Don't worry, I don't have anything worth posting atm unless someone asks.
@Llama - That's not the problem I have with him. I am arrogant as hell always. That doesn't stop me from scumhunting while also getting people to side with me. And claiming to change numbers is in fact explicitly claiming to be scum. But whatever. We don't NEED your vote to lynch him.

I dont have a problem with you, I know you are arrogent as well, I am too to an extent at least. That doesnt stop me from trying to not have people I think are town lynched, or stop me from getting people to agree with me that they are town. I dont hink that changing numbers is a big tell if someone is playing a WIFOM game, I think most of the people voting him are leaning town, but I just have a mislynch feeling here.

But whatever, I dont NEED you to vote someone else to stop him from getting lynched. Im going to fight this as long as it is there I think. Also I thought I removed that from my sig, so will do that now, although im rerunning it with a different theme and ranking system axed.

[Parama]

I don't care about convincing you in particular to vote for him. I'm following what I believe too, y'know.

[LlamaFluff]

I don't care about convincing you in particular to vote for him. I'm following what I believe too, y'know.

I know, I just am replying in the same style of post for the irony.

Also im thinking scum team looks like this:

Benmage
xvart
Inhim
lurker
loud player

[Guderian]

Yeah... so many things wrong here. You're not voting... anyone... yet you call for a bandwagon. On a stupid BM vote. For no reason.

I was calling for the bandwagon on myself because it seemed thats where everyones mind lay. All those people voting me, well to me, it is quite funny.

You seem quite dead set on my scumminess, which is also quite funny, and misguided. If you turned all your brain power somewhere else, actual scum will be found a lot sooner.

And whats with all the quotes of people voting. You are implying something there, but not really saying it. Make it direct, so people can see what the heck youre saying.

WIFOM time:
If I was scum, and I had four other scum in quick chat to bounce this idea off of, do you really think I would announce to the world "Hey, I changed numbers because my buddies told me to do so, hahahahah?" Really?

Parama - He is just bad town

Mind explaining?

[LlamaFluff]

Parama - He is just bad town

Mind explaining?

Really? Not much you are doing suggest anything contrary, you are managing to hit emotional town tells though.

[Guderian]

Also, it looks like #231 went unnoticed. Thoughts?

[Le Cupcake]

...

I want to gouge my eyes out. This speculation of what the first person in the draft would take AS TOWN is useless imo, given the wifom attached. Can anyone provide me a game with benmage as scum? His play is not what I am used to when not fighting with fate.

That said, slowsilver early on seemed like he was trying to look like he was doing something (eg. "wagon/vote analysis" around page 2-4) when the post itself was utterly useless.

Vote: Slowsilver

@Guderian: Why did you choose 1,1. Was it because you wanted first pick? And if so, why?

Parama is probably scum. Just a feeling.


I will re-read this game when I am in the mood to read through benmage/prana banter.

[Le Cupcake]

@All: Do you think the unique numbers this game mostly consist of scum? Why?

[Guderian]

@Guderian: Why did you choose 1,1. Was it because you wanted first pick? And if so, why?

The point of the draft was to pick numbers to get high to pick a role you wanted, to actually get a role instead of being a vanilla as I have been and usually are in most games.

So I wanted first pick so I could pick a role I wanted. I did, and I did.

also le, go to #231. looking at the previous games definitely gives weight to the theory.

[Guderian]

thinking about it more

@Guderian: Why did you choose 1,1. Was it because you wanted first pick? And if so, why?

What was the point in you choosing your numbers? Surely you were aiming for first pick as well?

[Hoopla]

Also, it looks like #231 went unnoticed. Thoughts?

That topic has sailed. I've already posted the stats twice on previous PYP games. Sorry if I'm misreading your post - I don't know if you were deliberately reposting or not?

[Guderian]

cliffs: I amalgamated bits of everyones thoughts so far
1. it is likely that 2/3 of gandalf, chk and volkan are scum.
2. we should be lynching among them today, not other people unless the do something egregious.
3. we may also need to use claims

[Jack]

iirc scum only gain a 15% advantage from knowing what numbers not to pick. I'm not sure that all the past games had the same format as far as scum discussion and I don't think we can really project from that small amount of data. 1 is likely, well of course one is likely scum are ~25% of the town anyway.

If scum do have a tangible advantage I would guess that it's not from knowing what the others have picked as much as it is spreading out and hitting the holes where people don't pick much (it seems like 10+ has a great chance of being unique). But I haven't checked that out.

[Pomegranate]

I need to catch up from page... 7. Will try to do it tonight, but I have a LOT of work.

[Jack]

Spoiler: data

1.) Cobalt (3,4)
2.) Elvis_Knits (6,15) (SCUM)
3.) Vi (12,6)
4.) Chamber (14,15)
5.) StrangerCoug (4,7)
6.) Faraday (4,12)
7.) Xylthym (8,1) (SCUM)
8.) Budja (8,7) (SCUM)
9.) Cruciare (11,1) (SCUM)
10.) Seacore (11,8)
11.) TonyMontana (5,8)
12.) BloodCovenant (5,13)
13.) DrippingGoofball (5,15)
14.) SerialClergyman (9,1)
15.) FishytheFish (9,2)
16.) Vaya (9,7)
17.) Farside22 (9,10)
18.) Benmage (2,3)
19.) Pomegranate (2,7)
20.) Devotress (2,11) (SCUM)
21.) Plum (2,8) - (SCUM)
22.) Dramonic (2,8) Random LOSER!

Socrates (12,1) (SCUM)
Fate (13,4)
bouncy.bouncy (2,1)
Cobalt (2,10)
RayFrost (4,6)
Redcoyote (4,9)
Jack (7,2) (SCUM)
FeFiFoFum (7,11)
StrangerCoug (3,1)
The1fifi (3,7) (SCUM)
wolframnhart (3,7)
Devotress (8,3)
Porkens (8,9)
DocPotter (8,10)
Ellibereth (1,2)
Dramonic (1,1)
Hoopla (1,1) (SCUM
TonyMontana (1,1)
Farside (6,3)
curiouskarmadog (6,12)
Pomegranate (6,4)
Faraday (6,4) (SCUM)

2,12 sorasgoof (SCUM)
10,1 Pomegranate
11,7 Sando
12,3 Porkens (SCUM)
13,7 Dramonic (SCUM)
1,1 SerialClergyman
1,1 manho
3,6 Socrates
3,6 Zoiaum
5,4 Ellibereth (SCUM)
5,15 Drippinggoofball
6,1 superawesomemegapimp
6,2 Budja
7,3 Fate
7,11 Parama
4,5 PranaDevil
4,7 CryMeARiver
4,8 12keyblade (SCUM)
9,2 Zang
9,4 Faraday
9,9 Hoopla
9,15 mb53

mafia b: (2,8), (6, 15), (8,7)
mafia a: (2,11), (8,1), (11,1)

pyp2: (1,1), (3,7), (6,4), (7,2), (12,1)

pyp3: (2,12), (4,8), (5,4), (12,3), (13,7)

Kicking the 1st game data because of the small scum group thing:


Total double digit #'s:
scum: 3
town: 3

[Jack]

so 4/7 of the unique numbers in the last two games were scum, 3 of them from picking 10+. Also 6/7 of the unique numbers were 10+. But it seems that for this game people have cottoned on with 7 people picking 10+ numbers (compared to 2 in pyp2 and 4 in pyp3).

HOWEVER

Fate, me, hoopla, and prana have all played before and presumably noticed the high numbers thing.

Le cupcake, xvart, and gandalf are better suspects. We are looking for someone who ended up with a high number because of scum intentionally spreading out.

I chose the numbers I did because I looked back at PYPIII and saw that the first numbers 10 and 11 were second and third in selection, so I picked 11 to emulate that in hopes of getting near the top. I picked 7 because I didn't really know how the second number worked so I just went with the 11,7 that the third person to pick in PYPIII picked.

On a whim, mod rushed me. I like the number 10.

2.IDK

LOL

gandalf replaced in and thus didn't pick his numbers. So why is he saying "I don't know" when asked why he picked them?

unvote, vote:gandalf

[Jack]

Also, his excuses are crappy. Good job hoopla being right even though for the wrong reason.

[Hoopla]

Also, his excuses are crappy. Good job hoopla being right even though for the wrong reason.

Not wrong, just different.