PYP 4: New Homes, Same Problems (Day 5)

[Jack]

So Guderian, what role did you pick? Cop?

[Jack]

unvote, vote:slowsilver

[Jack]

guys just send in your numbers. use random.org if you have to. dont hold up the game to ladi da about wifom number choices.

game theory. I had to change my original numbers too !

unvote, vote:Guderian

I don't think this is particularly scummy - what scum motivation is there to declare that in thread? If you think the reason this is scummy is because it implies Guderian changed his numbers due to being handed a scum QT, explain why. Because I don't think anyone would be that stupid to go "oh, I submitted 7,2, but then I realised my scumbuddies wanted me to pick 1,1!, derp derp, better say that in thread!!" - lets let Guderian explain what he meant though, because it definitely needs clearing up.

Are you really pulling "what scum motivation is there..." etc? What's the scum motivation for ever being scummy? And I know you believe in scumslips. Those quotes are damning.

Also, I tried to look up your reason for choosing (1,1) in pypII but the QT is cutoff. Something about "we have 5 numbers, we can afford to have one person go for broke". Don't you still think that's a likely mafia strategy?

[Jack]

I wouldn't lose sleep if we lynched either one of them - I just think Gandalf is a better choice, and I've justified my reasoning for my vote more than any other vote in the thread. I think you have better things to do now rather than harass me, because we're just cluttering the thread. Go ahead and start a competing wagon if you want, infact, I encourage it.

fos: socrates & fate for winning the draft with singular numbers.

In contrast to dramonic's (seemingly genuine) clueless response about the drafting system, this seems like Fate is piggybacking on this mindset to look town. The lame, forced question at the end quantifies this, and just looks like unnecessary words to fill a post that might otherwise had stood out.

Vote: Fate

For being a singular number, too.

FOS SCUMBUDDY, VOTE TOWN?

[Jack]

Guderian what do you think of hoopla?

[Jack]

Guderian, what do you think of gandalf?

[Jack]

Your

dog

mom

ate your homework

deleted your post? Seriously?

[Jack]

The last two pages are terrible.

[Jack]

iirc scum only gain a 15% advantage from knowing what numbers not to pick. I'm not sure that all the past games had the same format as far as scum discussion and I don't think we can really project from that small amount of data. 1 is likely, well of course one is likely scum are ~25% of the town anyway.

If scum do have a tangible advantage I would guess that it's not from knowing what the others have picked as much as it is spreading out and hitting the holes where people don't pick much (it seems like 10+ has a great chance of being unique). But I haven't checked that out.

[Jack]

Spoiler: data

1.) Cobalt (3,4)
2.) Elvis_Knits (6,15) (SCUM)
3.) Vi (12,6)
4.) Chamber (14,15)
5.) StrangerCoug (4,7)
6.) Faraday (4,12)
7.) Xylthym (8,1) (SCUM)
8.) Budja (8,7) (SCUM)
9.) Cruciare (11,1) (SCUM)
10.) Seacore (11,8)
11.) TonyMontana (5,8)
12.) BloodCovenant (5,13)
13.) DrippingGoofball (5,15)
14.) SerialClergyman (9,1)
15.) FishytheFish (9,2)
16.) Vaya (9,7)
17.) Farside22 (9,10)
18.) Benmage (2,3)
19.) Pomegranate (2,7)
20.) Devotress (2,11) (SCUM)
21.) Plum (2,8) - (SCUM)
22.) Dramonic (2,8) Random LOSER!

Socrates (12,1) (SCUM)
Fate (13,4)
bouncy.bouncy (2,1)
Cobalt (2,10)
RayFrost (4,6)
Redcoyote (4,9)
Jack (7,2) (SCUM)
FeFiFoFum (7,11)
StrangerCoug (3,1)
The1fifi (3,7) (SCUM)
wolframnhart (3,7)
Devotress (8,3)
Porkens (8,9)
DocPotter (8,10)
Ellibereth (1,2)
Dramonic (1,1)
Hoopla (1,1) (SCUM
TonyMontana (1,1)
Farside (6,3)
curiouskarmadog (6,12)
Pomegranate (6,4)
Faraday (6,4) (SCUM)

2,12 sorasgoof (SCUM)
10,1 Pomegranate
11,7 Sando
12,3 Porkens (SCUM)
13,7 Dramonic (SCUM)
1,1 SerialClergyman
1,1 manho
3,6 Socrates
3,6 Zoiaum
5,4 Ellibereth (SCUM)
5,15 Drippinggoofball
6,1 superawesomemegapimp
6,2 Budja
7,3 Fate
7,11 Parama
4,5 PranaDevil
4,7 CryMeARiver
4,8 12keyblade (SCUM)
9,2 Zang
9,4 Faraday
9,9 Hoopla
9,15 mb53

mafia b: (2,8), (6, 15), (8,7)
mafia a: (2,11), (8,1), (11,1)

pyp2: (1,1), (3,7), (6,4), (7,2), (12,1)

pyp3: (2,12), (4,8), (5,4), (12,3), (13,7)

Kicking the 1st game data because of the small scum group thing:


Total double digit #'s:
scum: 3
town: 3

[Jack]

so 4/7 of the unique numbers in the last two games were scum, 3 of them from picking 10+. Also 6/7 of the unique numbers were 10+. But it seems that for this game people have cottoned on with 7 people picking 10+ numbers (compared to 2 in pyp2 and 4 in pyp3).

HOWEVER

Fate, me, hoopla, and prana have all played before and presumably noticed the high numbers thing.

Le cupcake, xvart, and gandalf are better suspects. We are looking for someone who ended up with a high number because of scum intentionally spreading out.

I chose the numbers I did because I looked back at PYPIII and saw that the first numbers 10 and 11 were second and third in selection, so I picked 11 to emulate that in hopes of getting near the top. I picked 7 because I didn't really know how the second number worked so I just went with the 11,7 that the third person to pick in PYPIII picked.

On a whim, mod rushed me. I like the number 10.

2.IDK

LOL

gandalf replaced in and thus didn't pick his numbers. So why is he saying "I don't know" when asked why he picked them?

unvote, vote:gandalf

[Jack]

Also, his excuses are crappy. Good job hoopla being right even though for the wrong reason.

[Jack]

Also, his excuses are crappy. Good job hoopla being right even though for the wrong reason.

Not wrong, just different.

Isn't the reason scum get more unique numbers because they go for high numbers more often? Shh, I'm vindicated.

Anyway, I have a great dislike for Guderians 231 which is what started me on that research, especially the push for claims on everyone. I'll think about that in context of his gandalf vote later.

[Jack]

1's and 2's from past games:

mafia b: (2,8)...
mafia a: (2,11)...
pyp2: (1,1)...
pyp3: (2,12)...

Scum has never not gone for 1 or 2. I think that fits with the pattern as well (scum picking a wide range). It's true that there were 8 town who went for 1 or 2 in that timeframe but I don't think it's relevant--because the scum pattern should exist independently of what the town happens to pick. So Guderian and

Guderian

vollkan are suspect this game.

So it isn't "people with unique numbers" that are suspicious, it's "people with 1-2 or 10-15".

[Jack]

Odds are...Gud.

[Jack]

2 scum out of 10 and 8 townies out of 34?

20%
8/34 = 23.5%

Not significant. This just seems like a point you made up because you yourself picked 1.

I distinctly remember picking (7,2) instead of seven one because we agreed that while picking 1 was the correct play doing it was a scumtell because scum were more likely to have realized that through discussion. But where did

you

get the idea that scum would avoid it? Probably from the scum qt.

Very Gud.

[Jack]

Um, so thoughts, thoughts, thoughts...

I didn't realize how dumb my Y was until after the draft order was released.

[Jack]

Why do

you

think gandalf and Ben are scummy?

He's already said a bunch about gandalf...

fos:pom

[Jack]

Not sure. He says it happens 80% of the time, so it's not a stretch to think scum are doing it out of a motivation. However, I can't work out how not picking one helps scum avoid suspicion.

It's not a good idea to pick a high number. If you pick anything other than one, and the other person picks one, they win. If you pick one, and they don't, you win. If you both pick one, you have a 50% chance. The only time it could possibly help is if you are tripled (and ironically hoopla missed out on 1-shot governor based on this in pypII). But this is never obvious to people, scum on the other hand notice it. But then they can't all pick 1 as their y number because that would reveal them. So they pick it at the same rate town does. But this is not stuff that occurs to you if you haven't played the last few pyp's/talked about it with your scumbuddies in the qt.

[Jack]

I don't see how asking for a gunsmith claim from two people who everyone knows is likely to have a good role of some kind is damning. Wrong, sure.

[Jack]

If hoopla is scum, guderian is scum. If hoopla is town, guderian is scum. Wagoning hoopla makes no sense.

So I have to either read all that or switch to guderian. Are people seriously willing to argue that gandalf is town though?

[Jack]

No.

[Jack]

ARE YOU FOR REAL?

Do you think he is?

IMO I do not really see...I would bet most probably...I really cannot see...I would submit...less then perfect coordination...this argument could mean much less I suppose, but its a concern nonetheless...My opinion of course...

fos:Sajin

[Jack]

This wagon on hoopla is crappy. You may not believe in the numbers theory but that doesn't mean that hoopla-town doesn't. She linked to the game where she was town already. "role fishing" makes sense based on the theory. She hasn't been scummy since it turned out gandalf was scum.

[Jack]

So where is the scummy instead of the null?

[Jack]

No I think he's claiming scum. Duh.

[Jack]

Calls of "buddying"? Buddying is scum-to-town.

[Jack]

xvart - 4 - iamausername, Volkan, slowsilver, Rabies - (L-8)

Whaaat?

Is that wrong?

[Jack]

Of course he can be 100% positive, it's a subjective state in one meaning of the word.

That's my only comment on the last couple pages. Guderian or gandalf should be lynched by now.

[Jack]

And you play scum wrong.

UNVOTE
VOTE: gandalf5166

Oh snap!

That was hammer, right? Well, good luck town. Remember, Hoopla, Guderian, and then Benmage.

This is confusing...I thought you were scum, and yet after you genuinely thought you were hammered you wished the town good luck?????

[Jack]

Bah, the last person who pulled that I was sure was scum for it and they flipped town. But gandalf is no drmyshotty.

[Jack]

Le Cupcake--no read
Benmage--townish
slowsilver--town
inHimshallibe--townish
Andrius--no read

[Jack]

That's anti-town.

[Jack]

This wagon is retarded.

[Jack]

Let's really not focus on the self preservation vote. That's just weak whatever rhetoric you use to describe it.

Fact is we should lynch gandalf for what was said TWENTY PAGES ago. aka, the numbers, the "idk", the pretending like he sent in a role choice when he didn't.

[Jack]

ok, I just don't want it to turn into "hmm gandalf vs benmage, what's the argument against gandalf? He voted in self preservation? ..."

[Jack]

Don't understand the inhim wagon.

Much as I don't like to agree with the above scum.

He's right. We're 48 hours (or less I think, without checking) from a lynch, and the closest is Gandalf, and I'd prefer either a Benmage or Guderian lynch, as I'm now the only one on Guderian, it would seem Benmage is the other option. So I'll switch back over to him and hope we can get a solid lynch on him.

unvote;
vote: Benmage

I'm also in agreement that Andrius needs to actually get involved in the game.

vote:Prana

His suspicion of guderian is sounding terribly insincere here.

I'm finding vollkan very off putting as well. vollkan have you ever played nightless before?

[Jack]

Wall of text...hoopla...errg.

Scum picked in 1-4 and ben is prob town, the rest will take some figuring.

I had some crazy idea about scum having gunsmith lower down and gandalf claiming to have gone for it and then scum killing chkflip so vollkan could be "confirmed" as gunsmith while actually being vig or something, but I can't make sense of it.

[Jack]

1) Yes, I fully understood how the draft system worked by the time I gave my numbers in.
2) I chose my favourite numbers and then took away two. I hoped that others would choose my favourite numbers as their favourite numbers.
3) I would say that they chose unique numbers so as to maximise their chances of getting decent roles.

favorite numbers and then took away two?? Why did you hope that others would choose your favorite numbers? How?

[Jack]

Hoopla, explain your reasoning clearing vollk and guderian to me.

[Jack]

My problem with the "scum would have done this" is that scum do stupid stuff. Gandalf claimed vanilla which is a crappy scum strategy to begin with. What reason do we have to think he wasn't trying to out the gunsmith or some other wacky plan? Gunsmith is a pretty wicked town role given that it's a good bet that the cop and vigs are in the top 10 or so.

I'd rather forget that stuff for a while and look at in thread stuff and see what we get.

Prana has acted very scummy with regards to both gud and vollk.

[Jack]

I would be happy to see Sajin gone.

Slowsilver says scummy things but he just keeps chugging along unconcernedly.

Prana tried the "blah blah there's no reason behind anyone suspecting me" line as mafia the last game we were in.

[Jack]

Guderian 1,1
Volkan 2,6
Benmage 3,4
slowsilver 3,5 <--SCUM
Ellibereth 5,1
Rabies 5,7 <--TOWN
Drippinggoofball 6,10
iamausername 6,11
Andrius 6,1
Sajin 6,1
Pomegranate 6,1
llamafluff 8,1
Parama 8,5 <--TOWN
inHimshallibe 8,7 <--TOWN
chkflip 9,5 <--TOWN
Hoopla 10,1 <--TOWN
Le Cupcake 10,6
Jack 11,1
xvart 11,7
Zodiark13 12,1 <--SCUM
Fate 13,1
PranaDevil 13,10

Laid out in order of numbers.

If scum only took one low pick it would eliminate vollk and gud, plus whatever hoopla's reasoning was which was apparently right.
Benmage picked 3 same as slow.

Ellibereth 5,1
Drippinggoofball 6,10
iamausername 6,11
Andrius 6,1
Sajin 6,1
Pomegranate 6,1
llamafluff 8,1
Le Cupcake 10,6
Jack 11,1
xvart 11,7
Zodiark13 12,1 <--SCUM
Fate 13,1
PranaDevil 13,10

4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 13

3 scum. llama has seemed town as has xvart so for my personal list I'm going to knock out those. There are five sixes so lets leave those.

ellibereth 5,1
le cupcake 10,6
fate 13,1
prana 13,10

Should be 2 scum in here and 1 in the sixes. The sixes are a horrible wasteland though.

Hoopla why did you pick elli over prana?

[Jack]

2. On a whim, mod rushed me. I like the number 10.

How did it happen that the mod had to rush you?

[Jack]

That's more like it.

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V

If there was a case on him, he'd respond to it. But there isn't, so he can't. "simples"

[Jack]

Cop claim means lynch someone else regardless of how scummy the person is

I'm not enthusiastic about a le cupcake lynch.

[Jack]

Those ARE some shitty choices by the way.

I mean hot damn.

Unvote:
Vote: Le Cupcake

He's not the lynch but are you sure prana's town? Sounds like it with "shitty choices".

[Jack]

Yeah, his interactions with gandalf were pretty bad.


Why not Cupcake?

Any particular towntells you have on him?

As per your own list its down to me, Ellie, and Cupcake now.

No.

It is down to you three, I wanto see what hoop has on elli.

Watching the game now though so I'll get to it later.

[Jack]

1,3,5,6 and 2,3,5,6 are very unlikely. There are so many bad people in the sixes that I'm assuming 1 scum there.

We can't lynch elli without having a better picture of gud and vollk.

one of cupcake, fate, prana

one of elli, gud, vollk

Can't think more right now or reread ISO's.

cupcake and elli have done the least, prana and vollk seem scummiest to me, prana and vollk have investigative roles.

This assumes my town read on llama and xvart.

3,6,10,12,13? Sure. Hoopla did you say something about 3 double digits being unlikely? I think scum would go for more high numbers.

[Jack]

unvote, vote:Le Cupcake

We aren't lynching the cop/gunsmith claims today.

Let's get the lynch in quick to get sajin killed.

[Jack]

Vanilla, went for jailkeeper.

Fate, roleblocker wasn't taken at all in the last game and I haven't seen anything scummy from xvart so if you have some info as to why you think the roleblocker is not in the lower regions say so.

unvote

Can't reread till tomorrow or monday if the games are good.

Prana is probably the best lynch.

[Jack]

Jack why jailkeeper?

No, seriously.

Roleblock is a great ability to have, and no one bothered trying for it last game.

[Jack]

The roleblock is only a three shot. Jailkeep is great because you can block scum kills/abilities, the blocking a vig kill is only a minor downside.

1. SpyreX Jails SPS - SPS Invent Bulletproof blocked
1. SpyreX jails SPS - SPS kill kmd4390 blocked, SPS Silmaril Theft blocked
1. SpyreX jails Anon - blocks Mafia kill and Anon's one-shot power
1. SpyreX jailkeeps Budja - Budja kill Kmd4390 blocked

Arguing against poe lynches is fairly pointless, so I'll just pre-make fun of you for using "jailkeeper is a crappy role" as justification.

[Jack]

Fate, you just had to go for roleblocker didn't you.

So many people got sniped in the role picking (including us on gunsmith and weak doc). I figured watcher, cop, and vig would be tried for in the top 3.

Also, no double up because I remembered that hoopla's number theory from last game was exaggerated (and look at this game, only 1/4 of the single numbers were scum). But the scum spreading/picking more double digit theory is true I realized later. Suck.