Mini 1064 - Charlie's Town (Game Over!)

[Charlie]

Vote count 9

Shotty to the Body (3) - SpyreX, jmurph3, Nachomamma8
SpyreX (2) - FakeGod, Shotty to the Body
FakeGod (2) - Reckamonic, masfloohinev
Casus Belli (1) - Cogito Ergo Sum
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) - Casus Belli

Not voting: Substrike22
With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

[Substrike22]

VOTE: FakeGod

I'll go ahead and follow up my eariler post and cast the vote at this point.

Reck, do you think FakeGod is a better lynch than Mas right now? You have an entire post dedicated to scummy things that Mas has done, and yet your vote is on FakeGod; I read over your post outlining everything scummy about him, and it reaffirmed the suspicions I expressed on day 1.

I also agree with your sentiments about the wall of text. I think his case on FakeGod is particularly suspect, because it pulls out a fact that would've been made into a WIFOM argument either way and attempts to make it seem like a scum slip.

Actually.

UNVOTE: FakeGod
VOTE: Masfloohinev

Thoughts?

[Reckamonic]

Honestly, we still find FakeGod scummy, but masi.kn2-sz's attack on him was really forced. We'd love to believe we just caught a really bad bussing attempt that easily...but it seems TOO easy.

As long as one of them dies, we're fine.

[masfloohinev]

Mas, what do you think of Substrike's willingness to switch his vote from you to Richard, since you were both scum together anyways?

I didn't notice this. Looking back, I think his switch from me to Richard looks a bit opportunistic. It was so early in the game that he still could've tried to convince people to vote me, and it seemed like he suspected me much more.

What do you think of post #167?

As others pointed out, his reason for voting SpyreX was inaccurate, but I still don't know if I believe his explanation or not.

Like I said I don't feel bad in the slightest about throwing a hammer. I'm not stoked at seeing it coming and tsk,tsking instead of claiming but so it goes.

Why didn't you ask for a claim before hammering?

@mas: 1) You say I went from "suspecting him a bit" to "Richard is scum." In the first post you linked, I made my vote on Richard official, if you didn't realize. I already believed he was scum from the first post you linked, and I didn't change my mind suddenly, contrary to what you're saying.

In the first post I linked, you said:

Of course, the alternative is that we caught 2 town, and scum are fueling both sides, but nevertheless, I'm going to stay with my original vote till further developments.

Why would you say that you would keep your vote until further develops if you already thought he was scum?

5) Seeing that I voted and defended my vote on Richard which eventually resulted in his lynch, I'd say I'm playing Mafia.

Reread the point:

Lastly, FakeGod has brought

hardly any points

up against players and has given us

hardly any reads

to work with. He's been useless.

From memory, you've given one read this whole game (your scumread of Richard) and one point (a counterwagon forming after Richard's indicating that he's scum).

And if I didn't give you any reads, how did you come up with all these points above?

Contradiction.

I never said you didn't give any reads. I said you gave hardly any. Points 1 and 2 revolve around your read of Richard. Point 3A doesn't revolve around a suspicion. Point 3B revolves around your vote for SpyreX, but you never actually say that you find SpyreX suspicious. In fact, I'm not 100% if you actually suspect him or not. Point 4 doesn't revolve around a suspicion. So, yes, it is possible for me to have points against you despite you not having many reads. There's no contradiction.

Suspecting SpyreX for hammering isn't scummy in and of itself - it's just opportunistic.

How is suspecting SpyreX opportunistic? I think there are only 1-2 people that actually showed suspicion of him before me if any.

Oh, and mask;jk;in's vote on FakeGod is eerily similar to his suspicions on SpyreX and Shotty in 195. He pops up, cast suspicion, then just goes "Hey I'll explain later".

I've given reasons now, so what is the problem?

He wants FakeGod to show games where he saw a counterbandwagon rise against scum. Is this a serious request? Because this is a pretty fucking common thing, and we don't think we need to see any at-length examples for most of us here to agree that this happens often.

Okay... Thinking about it, that probably wasn't a good question, but I guess my point is that a counterwagon occurring could be rescuing a townie also and it is just as likely that the person being saved is town as they are scum if not more likely.

Oh, and his 'scumslip' that he found on FakeGod is weak - people include themselves in the numbers all the time. Had he said 2/6 instead of 2/7, you'd be saying he's scum for exactly the opposite reason.

I believe he should be taking his allignment into consideration when writing those numbers because if he's town, he's the only person he knows is town, and therefore should be scumhunting with that knowledge in mind. FakeGod, you say 2/7 isn't much more than 1/3, so why did you bring up the statistic in the first place?

[Casus Belli]

A.) Today he subtly pushes the suggestion of lynching somebody that wasn't on Richard's bandwagon by saying that there is a 1/3 chance of hitting scum as opposed to 2/7. This seems to be self serving, because he was on the Richard lynch bandwagon.

We actually sort of agree with FG's logic here, other than the fact that we can't really call it a "cop wagon" since there was no claim. We think that the logic is valid, if not a little misguided. From a scum POV (if the scum ratio is accurate) in the context of a purely numbers based scenario, wouldn't he want to lynch from inside the wagon to increase chances of not hitting any member of the scum team? This is the most troubling aspect of this point, unless there is reason to think that FakeGod would be more self serving scum than team oriented survival.

@ FakeGod -

We would be interested in hearing more about why you suspect that the scum breakdown on and off the wagon is 2:1.

he problem with this is that he says there is a 2/7 chance of lynching scum if they go for somebody on the bandwagon. However, from his PoV it should be a 2/6 chance if he is town. Could be an indicator that he is scum.

This is null as a lot (most?) players speak from an uninformed viewpoint since they are arguing to convince other people who do not share their inside knowledge.

I don't even understand what the first point means and the second point is inaccurate (you can't chainsaw defense isn't a scumtell if it is on a townie). I would like you to explain this attack. The posting style seemed strange to me because it consisted of many questions but not a lot of thoughts. However, looking at xvart in other games, it seems like this is just his normal playstyle as town.

When we speak about a chainsaw we are referring more to how CES attacked us personally for wording, rather than the Richard case itself. In fact CES never directly commented on the Richard case opting instead to attack us.

At the time it felt like a chainsaw and we called it as so. But Richard flipped town so he wasn't attacking us to defend his buddy. But he could have easily been scum who knew Richard would flip town. This stood out by the fact he avoided the case and attacked us for a townie lynch when he had no basis to suspect us over say Reckamonic.

There is a disconnect here somewhere, and we don't seem to be getting anywhere.

CES, do you ever plan to hunt for our alleged scumbuddies; or is your incorrect and unsubstantiated read enough for you to sit on our wagon all day?

---

@Shotty

- We are still waiting on a response to these questions:

Why didn't you question FakeGod's vote?
And why are you pushing a tell that is stronger in the late game so early when it's effectiveness is questionable at best?

Furthermore, you said that a reasonless vote is a scumtell. If it is a legitimate scumtell, why did you not vote on the basis of that scumtell when you originally questioned masf's vote? It appears to me that you probably asked a seemingly innocent question and then masf put a lot of attention on you you tried to justify your response after the fact. Add to that your reluctance (or negligence) to answer our questions after we have repeatedly asked makes it look like you got caught in a scum storm that you didn't know how to get out of.

---

@SpyreX

- what do you think of CES's play?

We are hesitant to move on from CES but we are getting nowhere without some backup or support.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Shotty to the Body

[Shotty to the Body]

V/LA till the end of the week, school is killing me right now.

[SpyreX]

Why didn't you ask for a claim before hammering?

If I say I'm going to hammer you it's pretty much implied if you've got anything to dissuade said hammer, like claiming cop for example, one should do this and sure as hell not twirl around.

@SpyreX - what do you think of CES's play?

We are hesitant to move on from CES but we are getting nowhere without some backup or support.

The short end of the dead list. Unlike the reckamachine I think mas is town. CES and FG are for killin

[jmurph3]

Sooo I'm back. Sorry it's a day late, something came up. Either way, before I address the things addressed toward me, I'd like to note that my suspicions haven't changed at all. Shotty is my #1 suspect for scum at this point. I'm also liking the case on FakeGod, but need to do an ISO to verify a few things.

Anyway, as addressed to me:

Except that if you actually read post 184, that's not at all what I said. I said that at that moment, of the people on the wagon I'd be most willing to vote Spyrex - not, mind you, that he was my top suspect, as there is a difference. I also ended my post by saying,

In the meantime, however, i need to reread the thread and work out some reads on those that I have sort of null-tells on at the moment.

Why, guess what...I reread the thread and decided that I

still

didn't like the way Shotty was/is playing. So really nice job taking what I said completely out of context.

There be an issue rollin' around right har'.

You say you'd be most willing to vote me. Sure.
You say you need to work out those null-tells. Sure.
THEN you say you STILL don't like Shotty. Implying that he sure as hell wasn't a null tell.

Which makes point 1 not make a whole lot of sense.

Did you not pay attention to anything I said D1, where I pretty much focused on Shotty the entire time? My saying that I still don't like Shotty was a reference to D1, wherein I didn't like Shotty's play. After D1 was over, I was focused more on the hammer (i.e. Spyrex and, to some extent, Nacho), casting pretty much everyone else into the realm of nulltells. When I reread, I remembered how I felt and I realized that not much had changed on that front. So I voted him.

jmurph3:

I'm thinking she's scum. Originally, I wasn't all convinced by q21's point against her, but after taking a closer look at her defense, I wish I had given her more attention. She originally said that she suspects me more because I got more agitated when my arguments were supposedly shut down which she said looked like cornered scum. However, later she keeps her vote on Shotty instead for something else. When questioned, I think jmurph realized she was caught in a contradiction, because she retracts her earlier point against me and now says:

So instead, I left my vote where it is because I think it's much more interesting to note the connection between you and Shotty, and something that I would prefer to explore more before I move my vote elsewhere, especially since

my read on mas is a gut-read, and I don't typically hold much with my gut.

The bolded part shows that jmurph has apparently forgotten the point she had against me. Before she had said she had a point against me that wasn't gut, but now she's saying she suspected me more than Shotty simply because of a gut feeling. Also, she says she doesn't hold much with her gut. If that's the case, why did she give me an FoS?

I didn't forget that I made a point against you. I did, however, note in the

same exact post that I first called you suspicious

state that my read on you was gut-based. There's no contradiction there. My thought that you were acting like cornered scum was because of a gut reaction to how you were acting. There is literally no contradiction there, just me reiterating what I had already said.

Later at the beginning of day 2 jmurph says this:

At this point, I'd most be willing to go with the people on the wagon, since I have a better read on those. Of those, I'd be most willing to vote Spyrex. For, you know, the giggles. Off the wagon, the most likely scum to me is Mas, for a variety of not good play D1.

Which contradicts her suspicion of me that was solely due to her gutfeeling which she also says she doesn't hold much with.

You're right that this contradicts what I said early about it being solely due to my gutfeeling. To be 100% honest, I'm not sure what my thought process was at this point, as my reread pretty much changed everything I was feeling when I wrote that post.

Lastly, her voteswitch from SpyreX to Shotty due to a reread. I thought it through, and even if she did reread the thread and change her mind, it was still a big jump to go from SpyreX to SpyreX's main suspect.

See above where I explained how this was based a lot on stuff that I myself said/felt during D1.

If I missed any points addressed to me, please point them out as need be.

[Nachomamma8]

{Shotty
Fake
Sub}

[CES
jmurph]

{SpyreX
Causus
mas}

Yeah, this is just a post avoiding a prod.

jmurph's response has pushed her out of the realm of scum and into the realm of null.

[FakeGod]

@ FakeGod -

We would be interested in hearing more about why you suspect that the scum breakdown on and off the wagon is 2:1.

The speed of the lynch is what I'm going off of at the moment.

A 7-page lynch on d1 is pretty fast, fast enough to for me to suspect that it was a scum-fueled wagon.

I'm guessing 2, possibly all 3 scum on the wagon, but I haven't seen a game where entire scum team jumped on the wagon really fast.


@substrike and Nacho: what do you think of each other? Town? Scummy?

[Substrike22]

Nacho, just to be clear are all of those parenthesis possible scum teams, or what? Or did I miss the explanation of that somewhere?

[masfloohinev]

jmurph, if you don't hold much with your gut, then why did you give me an FoS for a gutfeeling?

[Charlie]

Cogito Ergo Sum has been given an overdued prod.

Reckamonic has 4 hours left before getting a prod.

Casus Belli's V/LA on weekends have been noted.
Shotty to the Body's V/LA till the end of the week has been noted.

[jmurph3]

@Mas: Because a FoS is my normal reaction when I see people acting as suspicious, but I'm not willing/not ready to vote them.

@Substrike: I think, based on the fact that my name moved from one set of brackets to another with Nacho saying that I had moved from scum to null, that they're his reads. The top set of brackets are scum, the middle are null, and the bottom are town. Nacho, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but that's what I'm getting out of it.

And oy vey there is a lack of posting up in this joint.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

At the time it felt like a chainsaw and we called it as so. But Richard flipped town so he wasn't attacking us to defend his buddy. But he could have easily been scum who knew Richard would flip town. This stood out by the fact he avoided the case and attacked us for a townie lynch when he had no basis to suspect us over say Reckamonic.

So you admit it's not a chainsaw? You only started calling it that today.

CES, do you ever plan to hunt for our alleged scumbuddies; or is your incorrect and unsubstantiated read enough for you to sit on our wagon all day?

It totally is substantiated - I even did sample calculations. But if you must know, I am of course looking for other scum. There may not be many outward signs of that, but that's just my mostly-gut-based playstyle.

[SpyreX]

Did you not pay attention to anything I said D1, where I pretty much focused on Shotty the entire time? My saying that I still don't like Shotty was a reference to D1, wherein I didn't like Shotty's play. After D1 was over, I was focused more on the hammer (i.e. Spyrex and, to some extent, Nacho), casting pretty much everyone else into the realm of nulltells. When I reread, I remembered how I felt and I realized that not much had changed on that front. So I voted him.

Fair enough. Words are tricky bastards.

[Nachomamma8]

Things are boring without Shotty around, I gotta admit.

Vote: FakeGod

Yeah, scummy. Why?

[Charlie]

Vote count 10

Shotty to the Body (3) - SpyreX, jmurph3, Casus Belli
FakeGod (3) - Reckamonic, masfloohinev, Nachomamma8
SpyreX (2) - FakeGod, Shotty to the Body
Casus Belli (1) - Cogito Ergo Sum
masfloohinev (1) - Substrike22

Not voting: No one!
With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Reckamonic has been prodded.

It is just a little over a week before deadline.

[Reckamonic]

So, uh, we read the page. Very disappointing.

Casus Belli's point on Shotty opened our eyes a bit, and mashnvielfoo's points against FakeGod are quite convincing. We support a Shotty lynch or a FakeGod lynch first, with a mashnvilei381nv lynch at a distant third. Just because he makes good points doesn't mean he's not bussing. He's actually very good at it.

Nacho, why aren't we on your list?

Vote: Shotty

[Casus Belli]

VOTE: FakeGod

I'll go ahead and follow up my eariler post and cast the vote at this point.

Reck, do you think FakeGod is a better lynch than Mas right now? You have an entire post dedicated to scummy things that Mas has done, and yet your vote is on FakeGod; I read over your post outlining everything scummy about him, and it reaffirmed the suspicions I expressed on day 1.

I also agree with your sentiments about the wall of text. I think his case on FakeGod is particularly suspect, because it pulls out a fact that would've been made into a WIFOM argument either way and attempts to make it seem like a scum slip.

Actually.

UNVOTE: FakeGod
VOTE: Masfloohinev

Thoughts?

We always find it suspect when someone votes, unvotes, and votes for someone else in the same post. The motivation is strange, especially in this case where Substrike essentially says he wants it on record that he was voting FakeGod (by following up his previous post). While we are on the subject, why didn't you vote for FakeGod in your post 236? You said, "

FakeGod is my most comfortably scum right now

" and "

flipping FakeGod will help give us reads on other people. A lot of people started talking about potential busing of FakeGod and such.

" While the second justification is pretty terrible, we don't understand why you didn't slap a vote down at this juncture; especially since you had been withholding your vote for over a RL week.

So you admit it's not a chainsaw? You only started calling it that today.

Actually we did refer to your defense of Richard as a Chainsaw Defense yesterday, here. Actually, it is a chainsaw defense, but the reliability apparently requires a scum flip. However, the xvart head never knew that the tell relied on a flipped scum and the Sotty head thought it applied either way.

It totally is substantiated - I even did sample calculations. But if you must know, I am of course looking for other scum. There may not be many outward signs of that, but that's just my mostly-gut-based playstyle.

Great. We are waiting with baited breath for your game breaking reads that you are keeping to yourself for now for some unknown reason. It was always our impression that providing more information was town behavior and withholding information was scum behavior. You certainly aren't doing much to advance your reads; surely you agree with someone else in this game with some of your hidden reads? Surely you could be helping the town lynch our alleged scum buddies with your hidden reads?

Things are boring without Shotty around, I gotta admit.

Vote: FakeGod

Yeah, scummy. Why?

We are fairly disappointed in this lackluster vote switch. For the sake of argument, did you just come to the conclusion that "things are boring" without Shotty around? Or why was that not a factor when you voted him a week ago. If this wasn't really a reason for you jumping off his wagon, what is the actual reason and why did you not give it the first time?

[masfloohinev]

Casus Belli's point on Shotty opened our eyes a bit, and mashnvielfoo's points against FakeGod are quite convincing. We support a Shotty lynch or a FakeGod lynch first, with a mashnvilei381nv lynch at a distant third. Just because he makes good points doesn't mean he's not bussing. He's actually very good at it.

Weren't you just questioning my points a page ago?

[masfloohinev]

Unvote. Vote: Shotty

I'm bored. Something needs to happen. I need to see a flip from one of my top suspects.

This is L-1.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Great. We are waiting with baited breath for your game breaking reads that you are keeping to yourself for now for some unknown reason. It was always our impression that providing more information was town behavior and withholding information was scum behavior. You certainly aren't doing much to advance your reads; surely you agree with someone else in this game with some of your hidden reads? Surely you could be helping the town lynch our alleged scum buddies with your hidden reads?

I share the only important thing in that regard here. While I'm linking the post anyway, why don't you answer the question I pose to you at the end.

I find the case against Shotty very "meh".

[Casus Belli]

I share the only important thing in that regard here. While I'm linking the post anyway, why don't you answer the question I pose to you at the end.

I find the case against Shotty very "meh".

The only thing relevant that we see in your linked post is when you say "P.S. FakeGod is looking good as a #2 suspect." So like we said, if that is the teaser for your other hidden scum reads, we are waiting with baited breath; which begs the question why don't you switch your vote to FakeGod? Your one vote wonder wagon on us isn't going anywhere and you are not actively trying to get others to join our wagon, so why don't you switch over to your "good #2 suspect" and advance your alleged town aligned win condition?

As for your questions, the disparity is that you said you "didn't buy that we ascribed such a high likelihood to Richard being scum so early and based on so little." and Reckamonic came in 11 posts later and said "Richard is scum because of this one post."

We posted our suspicion in post 104 at 1:32pm. Reckamonic posted their response in post 115 at 8:10pm (both on the same day, so less than seven hours apart). Richard did not post at all during this time period. Now you don't believe our explained justification for Richard being likely scum but you believe Reckamonic's definitive claim of Richard being scum is solid because of their feelings on claiming the end of RVS? Somehow in the course of seven hours it became acceptable to claim definitively that Richard was scum with a less thought out and less justified reason?

[jmurph3]

UNVOTE:

No point in having another lynch without the person being able to get a claim in, especially since shotty's V/LA until today.