Mini #1007 (Game Over)

[redtail896]

Prod received. Sorry; unexpected life stuff. I'll post later tonight.

As to that question: I read them as carefully as I can, multiple times. Subsequent rereads are almost always in isos though.

[redtail896]

Alright. Sorry about the unexpected V/LA.

As to who I want to kill, that's tough. And involves a boatload of WIFOM. Here is a short summary of beliefs:

VRK: I think I undervalue the whole "willing to let himself die" thing compared to everybody else, although I grant that his willing to have himself killed is a strong mark in his favor. There are still a bunch of bad marks in his history, all of which have been gone over. And yes, I am still rereading.

Equinox: I admit to being biased by my argument in CA's defense. I do think (here comes the WIFOM) that scum-Equi would have been the most likely to want to keep me alive, for that exact reason. But that's not much. Really, I don't think a whole lot can be placed at CA's feet other than active lurking and general lack of contribution.

AGM: As noted, my CA defense also applies to AGM. I'm inclined at this point to think AGM is the most likely town.

Finally: I just want to note that if all three of you want a no lynch today, I'm okay with that. I understand. I just wanted a chance to say my peace.

[Equinox]

Nobody is hammering No Lynch until we're all ready. Don't worry about that.

In the meantime, I'm sitting here wondering if AlmasterGM already saw the question I just posed. It's not like the question requires that much thought to answer. >_>

[AlmasterGM]

Depends on the situation. If it is extremely close and coming down to the wire, then I'll get it together and go back and re-read the game closely. If the game is just going through normal progressions, then I usually don't read anything except what's come up with my last post. And, if I'm busy and there's a lot of text, I don't feel too bad about skimming.

AFA this game goes, I was not paying incredibly close attention until yesterday and right now.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

I don't put a lot of read time into the game past day 1, although I think I should. I try to keep up as much as possible in the beginning, but I find myself burning out with trying to do too much. I tend to focus a lot more on the game at the end, where it's really important to get it right. That's when I tend to do rereads and whatnot.

[Equinox]

Thanks, everyone.

I asked because I caught something on Day 1 that I needed to clarify. If nobody here lied in their answer^(!), I can rule out AlmasterGM as scum, who pushed a case on Kid Know Nothing based on something that had already been proven to be false on Day 1. That link points to Good and Honest's post where s/he links to another game where s/he describes his/her meta... and that explicitly states that Good and Honest doesn't like to submit kills unless it's absolutely necessary. Kid Know Nothing probably saw this and it stuck with him.

I am comfortable saying this because reading is supposedly a pro-town action. Good townies read and hunt scum. However, when asked, townies will be honest if they haven't read. I posit that scum, who need to blend in, will be more hesitant to say that they haven't been reading if they really haven't, and if they were reading carefully already, then there's no argument.

I've said my piece here. Everyone is town... except ConfidAnon. If I live tomorrow, I will fully explain the rest of this, especially since I'll get new information from whatever happens on Night 4. If I'm dead, read that last paragraph and think about it.

I'll continue my reread, but I don't think I'm going to get anything so thoroughly ground-breaking that will stop me from doing this. (Even if it did, I still need to do this.)

VOTE: No Lynch

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Equi, can you answer post 873 for me please? The Mod is V/LA, so we may have time for you to post it before thread lock.

I haven't looked at the link you posted yet, but if that's true, then why didn't KKN SAY that he read that?

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

EBWOP: That last sentence is a bit rhetorical - I'm not actually expecting an answer.

[Equinox]

Ah, sorry.

@Equi: can you explain how the No Kill does/doesn't benefit the players you mentioned in 868? I'm not wrapping my brain around it.

Hmm... Answering this question is a bit risky, but I'll run with it.

redtail896's response to Hoopla's gunsmith gambit on Day 2 was very townie. In a situation like that with a player like town_redtail896, it would be of greater benefit to scum to get rid of him. Sure, they could try to push a case on him, but then they'd be gambling on the chance that town_redtail896 doesn't get them lynched first. In this sense, a purposeful No Kill benefits neither scum_AlmasterGM nor scum_Vel-Rahn Koon.

Now, if redtail896 were scum, killing someone narrows the field of mislynches. Everyone alive today is scummy to some degree. From Day 1 alone, we have AlmasterGM and Vel-Rahn Koon as suspects, and that's not mentioning whatever interactions occurred on Days 2 and 3; ConfidAnon chose to dodge the issue of Hoopla on Day 1 altogether and tried to shift attention to gonnano instead, and then he went lurky on you all after that. scum_redtail896 can then cause much confusion.

All of the above banks on two things: 1) intentional submission of No Action, and 2) redtail896's meta.

So, I've just caused some massive WIFOM.

I think we should be fine, though. Bring on the betting tables.

To whomever is thinking of hammering: I will not stop you from quick-hammering, but keep in mind that both Equinox and redtail896 are still in the middle of a reread, and I've decided that whatever I get from this reread, I am going to post. I expect the same of redtail896.

[redtail896]

You expect correctly.

[Equinox]

I'm sorry about this reread taking so bloody long. Too many things going on at once right now.

V/LA October 4

I'm not making promises anymore because I end up breaking them. >_>

[Espeonage]

I am back from my VLA. So that is good news. I will get everything here done later today.

[Espeonage]

Vote Count

2 -

No Lynch

- AlmasterGM, Equinox (L-1)

Not Voting: redtail896, Vel-Rahn Koon

[Equinox]

I bet they're all rolling in their graves, yelling at us to hurry up and finish the game, regardless of the result... >_>

I don't know what's redtail896's hold-up, but I can tell you mine. I'll be finishing up a midterm and some statistics stuff tomorrow. To be quite honest, I'm only halfway through the reread (<_<) and I lost my notes, but my memory should serve me well when I resume. As soon as my school stuff is done, PROBABLY tomorrow evening, this is top priority because I want to wrap this up and then go on Mafia sabbatical. Only reason I'm not wrapping this up sooner is I actually want to go out with a BANG! I mean, a win.

SO YEAH. I bet you guys prefer in-depth analysis to hasty LyLo hammers, right? Right.

[Espeonage]

Prods will be going out tonight.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

I'm here. I think I'm waiting more on tomorrow than anything else, but we have two people who are in process of doing rereads so I'm not particularly keen on dropping a hammer yet.

[AlmasterGM]

Sooooo how are those re-reads coming?

[Equinox]

Sooooo how are those re-reads coming?

Question: Why aren't you rereading?

No new progress since my last post, unfortunately. I ended up crashing last night following my midterm, and I am right now adding finishing touches to my statistics masterpiece.

redtail896 logged in earlier today, so I can only guess that he isn't done, either.

Since we're running out of time, and it's extremely likely that I won't finish before thread lock, I'll talk about this now. I'd planned on finishing my reread and then sum up all of my findings, but I'll work with what I have now and just post as I go.

...something tells me the whole redtail896 stuff I've been posting all day is a red herring.

...and now I'm running out of time to type this post. I'll elaborate as soon as I get to class, but if I get ninja'd before then, that's my final thought on this matter.

[Equinox]

Sorry about the essay.

...something tells me the whole redtail896 stuff I've been posting all day is a red herring.

I've been thinking about this, and I conclude at this point that it's not redtail896, despite all the WIFOM I've been posting. This is just like how I should have listened to Hoopla's tracker results yesterday (

especially

when considered in conjunction with what Good and Honest posted on Day 1); Hoopla makes an excellent point about her gunsmith gambit. It's highly likely that redtail896 was being honest, considering that we're in a closed setup and scum would have benefited more from a fake PR claim than a VT claim.

I read the controversy around Hoopla's PGO claim on Day 1, and if I'm remembering my notes correctly, I had AlmasterGM and Vel-Rahn Koon down as key suspects, which was why I said I believed scum (and I thought it was redtail896 at the time) was a careful reader. The way I saw it a page or so ago, scum had a good memory and remembered this aspect or had gone to the trouble of rereading the game. I'm having some second thoughts about this, though, because I don't think we arrived at this current game state purely because of a single event on Day 1. Yay for not knowing how to scum-hunt.

Vel-Rahn Koon's attacks on Hoopla does indeed read like he's trying to deny Hoopla's PGO claim, which would make him more than a little scummy. However, considering Vel-Rahn Koon's play on Day 4, I don't think he's our last scum. Asking to be lynched to avoid LyLo on top of all the other previous evidence (some I have seen, and some I haven't yet, but I'll take your word for it that they exist) is a very risky gambit for scum to pull; it places all control of his win condition in someone else's hands. Vel-Rahn Koon not voting himself while playing the martyr move is a null tell because VRK isn't exactly in a position where he can do that and not eat a ton of flak.

Also, if this means anything at all, VRK defending Zachrulez is not a scum tell. Zachrulez had been screaming "Bus me!" since the beginning of Day 1, so it's much, much more likely that his buddies got him lynched than tried to keep him alive. (Not to mention Zachrulez was a goon.)

That leaves AlmasterGM. I know the least about him, really. I saw him ride on AGar's attacks against Hoopla on Day 1. I saw him post that case against Kid Know Nothing on Day 4, and he's admitted to not reading his games too carefully. I saw Zachrulez post a mini-case against AlmasterGM at some point, but I don't know how much weight to place on that. AlmasterGM had immediately jumped on the No Lynch with me when this day started, but AFAIK that's done by both scum and town.

/sigh

Come to think of it, I have some metagaming to do about the whole reading games carefully thing. Whelp. I'll get right back to you on that, assuming I make it in time.

Equinox's final Day 5 thoughts:

Scum

: AlmasterGM > redtail896 > Vel-Rahn Koon > Equinox

In other words, I'm back to where I started Day 5. I guess I'm a little bit more confident about this now than I was before, though. I'm out of class and have 2 hours of free time, so I'm going to finish up this reading. What I'll probably do in the interest of time is read Zachrulez and Good and Honest (ergh, walls) in isolation, see if I can pick up some distancing/buddying/whatever bells.

[Equinox]

I just remembered something.

Answer this for me before thread lock and you shall get cookies!

When I replaced in on Day 4, Kid Know Nothing and Vel-Rahn Koon were at L-1. redtail896 unvoted to prevent a quick hammer from me.

AlmasterGM and Vel-Rahn Koon, why did neither of you do the same?

[Equinox]

Argh. I've been playing like a freakin' bonehead. I should not have wasted so much time going after redtail896. So, yeah, I just reread this exchange, and now I feel stupid. >_>

ANYWAY. On to things that actually matter.

Okay, so I've just read Zachrulez's posts. In them, I saw AlmasterGM, ConfidAnon,

drmyshottyizsik

,

Elleran

,

Good and Honest

, and Vel-Rahn Koon. From what I can tell, Zachrulez is a busser, though the Day 2 bus was probably meant to take down gonnano or clear Good and Honest. So, looking at this, I'm wondering if Zachrulez's attacks on AlmasterGM are... genuine. The wagon on AlmasterGM never actually took off; people were more interested in drmyshottyizsik and then Elleran. The biggest that wagon ever got at any time was 3 votes, which is a safe enough time for distancing. The only thing that worries/WIFOMs me is if this isn't confirmation bias rearing its ugly head again, but PoE (and additional evidence below) points to this guy. With brights on.

Zachrulez defending Vel-Rahn Koon is interesting. (Oh, yeah. That comment in 893 about VRK defending Zachrulez was based on someone claiming VRK had soft-defended Zachrulez. Looking at VRK's posts in isolation, I don't see the defending, so I retract that statement. Not that the point changes, because...) Zachrulez was going down; that much was obvious. It would be weird for Zachrulez to defend scum_VRK in that manner because VRK would (and did) get attacked over that. Throw in the fact that Good and Honest was also going to go down because of her behavior, meaning a very poor prognosis for the scum team, and I think I got myself my second town.

So.

I have made my decision. I believe the evidence I have collected is firm.

On Day 6, I will lynch AlmasterGM, our final scum. Don't forget to electrocute me tonight, Pikachu.

By the way... our deadline was yesterday.

[redtail896]

ARGHH!!! This game is still as incomprehensible as ever. Although that might be that **** of a topology midterm I took today. BTW: I can't wait to see Hoopla yell at us about downtime and slow pace when this is done

Okay, here's how it was.

1. I admit to waiting a little longer than I should have to post this, since Equi was so nicely providing me with material to analyze. I didn't realize that our deadline was yesterday though.

2. Scum has clearly decided not to try to go after me. I find this decision curious at best; I still don't understand why there was no kill last night in this scenario.

3. I've read through CA's ISO about a dozen times (what can I say, it's really short). I honestly can't pin anything down on him other than active lurking, and I still think it's insane that scum-CA would've bussed his compatriots like that.

4. Equinox has been, in my mind, significantly scummier than CA. Notably, jumping from

I asked because I caught something on Day 1 that I needed to clarify. If nobody here lied in their answer(!), I can rule out AlmasterGM as scum, who pushed a case on Kid Know Nothing based on something that had already been proven to be false on Day 1. That link points to Good and Honest's post where s/he links to another game where s/he describes his/her meta... and that explicitly states that Good and Honest doesn't like to submit kills unless it's absolutely necessary. Kid Know Nothing probably saw this and it stuck with him.

to

On Day 6, I will lynch AlmasterGM, our final scum. Don't forget to electrocute me tonight, Pikachu.

In addition, scum-Equi has what I believe to be the best reasoning for keeping me alive.

5. VRK's martyr card is admittedly very powerful, even though I don't like martyr cards in general. I have to admit that this one hits me more than most. Especially in this kind of situation.

6. Scum-AGM would also be bussing like it's his job.

So at the end, if I had to pick one, it would probably be Equi. Note that I'm not in the

least satisfied

, but I think it's the best one available.

[Equinox]

I thought it was clear how I jumped from AlmasterGM-town to AlmasterGM-scum... I guess not. Here it is in tl;dr form: The evidence I gathered from reading earlier this evening (that of redtail896-town and VRK-town) is significantly stronger than the evidence I gathered from that question and answer (the results of which were redtail896-scum, AlmasterGM-town, and VRK-town).

I'm going to pose a question, then. Supposing that I am scum, how would it benefit me to switch in that manner in the course of a single game day?

I still think it's insane that scum-CA would've bussed his compatriots like that.

Scum-CA factor aside, I'm not surprised that Good and Honest and Zachrulez were bussed. Both of them were practically asking for it.

6. Scum-AGM would also be bussing like it's his job.

Actually, he did.

redtail896, you're playing right into scum's hands with that post. If my suspicions are correct, and they probably are, AlmasterGM will end up deciding the hammer tomorrow, and he is not going to vote himself.

---

Now that I'm in the comfort of my own home, I'm going to do some more readin'.

[Espeonage]

Day will end when I wake up tomorrow morning. I can't remember if deadline was this morning or tomorrow morning so safe to go with the longer option.

[Equinox]

Vel-Rahn Koon, get in here and say something about this. You're instrumental to the endgame.

AlmasterGM, get in here and answer my question in 894.

If I am estimating this correctly, we have anywhere from 3 to 5 hours remaining.