Newbie 1010 (Game Over)

[Civil Scum]

VC:

Don't claim yet.

Anyone:

Please state your honest and outright intention of hammering before voting

Unless you want to be friggin auto-lynched tomorrow.

[Olinea]

Sorry, it was Silver and Vincius. Though, my point is -for future refernce- that if my read on you has been correct, then your partner is neither of the two last people you named.

So Cattepillar or Nevermind. Possibly Raz.

So I'm perfectly clear, you;re saying if I die and flip scum, you think my partner is neither Chaim nor Silver?

[bird1111]

Vote Count:
Olinea (4): Civil Scum, silverbullet999, Vincius Chaim, Catterpillar
Vinicius Chaim (4): nevermind, Yoenit, Olinea, Razgriz
Razgriz (1): neil1113
silverbullet999 (0): No one
neil1113 (0): No one
Catterpillar (0): No one
Yoenit (0): No one
Civil Scum (0): No one
nevermind (0): No one

Not voting (0): No one

With 9 alive it is 5 to lynch.

Deadline Vote Count:
Olinea (4): Civil Scum, silverbullet999, Vincius Chaim, Catterpillar
Vinicius Chaim (4): nevermind, Yoenit, Olinea, Razgriz
silverbullet999 (0): No one
neil1113 (0): No one
Catterpillar (0): No one
Yoenit (0): No one
Razgriz (0): No one
Civil Scum (0): No one
nevermind (0): No one

Not voting (0): No one

With 1 not having posted within the last 48 hours, 0 currently being replaced, and 0 who have requested to not have their vote counted for deadline purposes; 8 votes would be counted if deadline was now, and therefore it would take 5 votes to lynch. Deadline: September 30th@10:00 AM EDT/GMT-4 (2:00 PM GMT). A countdown to deadline can be found here

[Civil Scum]

Why would you need to be perfectly clear about something like that?

[Yoenit]

@Civil, why should VC not roleclaim yet?

[Civil Scum]

Because he just got to L-1 very very quickly, and as of now, there's no clear 5th person who's looking to jump to that wagon. We have one claim, there's no sense in VC claiming if Neil, or anyone else for that matter, is going to hammer Olinea. It's by-and-large an unneccesary claim, which is generally to be avoided.
(That's what I meant btw, by all means, please hammer Olinea. But first announce an honest intention to hammer if it's VC you choose to vote for)

Because the "best" he can do is claim "Vanilla Townie", the "worst" is a PR, assuming he's telling the truth. If you just assume prior to hearing his actual claim, that he claims VT, then it shouldn't affect someone's decision to vote too much, and they still get a chance to hear the claim before they make it final.

Just because you have competing BW's doesn't mean you need a dual or simultaneous claim. I suggested this idea in a tough decision in a past game, and it was summarily shot down by some wiser than I. We don't want dual or multiple claims, we just want a claim from the person who is about to be lynched. And ideally, unless you're mass-claiming, you shouldn't get a claim from someone unless they are almost certainly going to die. The idea is to avoid making a serious mistake, not to make the town's decision easier, or to get "information" on players by such means. So I just think it would be more proper, and safer/better, if VC doesn't claim until someone says that they are definitely going to kill him. Too close to deadline, with people's activity levels, I realize this approach could be problematic. But at the moment, it's for the best.

[Yoenit]

Makes sense

[Razgriz]

orry, but uh, what does iso stand for?

[Yoenit]

From the wiki:

To read in Isolation. You can view one person's posts "in Isolation" by using the "Display posts from previous" drop down boxes at the bottom of every page.

[Vinicius Chaim]

Yes I know I put him at L-1. The reason he got scumpoints is because, he has bandwagoned all day, has piggybacked on other reasoning, and hasn't really scumhunted much at all. He just says "I agree" and votes.
Points Gained:
Bandwagoning: +10
Piggybacking: +15
Not much scumhunting: +10
Total: 35

My point list:
Town: 0-6
Slight Town: 7-13
Neutral: 14-20
Slight Scum: 21-27
Scum: 28+

let me try explaining you, guys
1) every bandwagon I joined I had a reason(raz, my biggest post; yoenit, lurking[unvoted soon];Olinea, I already said) but you guys prefer to understand like reason a wall of text, with many words just to say one thing I say in 4 lines...
2)my newbish will kill me, what is piggyback?
3) I can't see evidences everywhere, like more experienced people do, like civil, neil or you. but did you realize, Razgriz, that you hadn't scum hunted much also yet?

[Razgriz]

From the wiki:

To read in Isolation. You can view one person's posts "in Isolation" by using the "Display posts from previous" drop down boxes at the bottom of every page.

Ok, thanks

1) every bandwagon I joined I had a reason(raz, my biggest post; yoenit, lurking[unvoted soon];Olinea, I already said) but you guys prefer to understand like reason a wall of text, with many words just to say one thing I say in 4 lines...

Not on everyone. I've seen the bandwagon posts and some of them weren't reasoning

2)my newbish will kill me, what is piggyback?

When you post, I agree, or just vote and say "What he said" or something close to that

3) I can't see evidences everywhere, like more experienced people do, like civil, neil or you. but did you realize, Razgriz, that you hadn't scum hunted much also yet?

WHAT????? Have you not been reading my posts or anything? Because, I have been scumhunting alot

[Civil Scum]

Might be Olinea/Razgriz

[Civil Scum]

WHAT????? Have you not been reading my posts or anything? Because, I have been scumhunting alot

Imo, this is a strange ass comment to say to the person you're trying to lynch.

He voted Neil (1st most widely suspected person on D-1), then was on the VC wagon, then voted for my wagon, then voted for Olinea. The only wagon Raz hasn't been on was his own.

[silverbullet999]

-Razzy boy
[quote]
WHAT????? Have you not been reading my posts or anything? Because, I have been scumhunting alot [quote]
Hrmmm?
Quotes ahora.

[Civil Scum]

To be perfectly clear, I think that it might be possible to judge from someone, whether or not they would try misdirection if they thought they were caught as scum. Whether they thought they could clear themselves a great deal with a bus, whether they would do little either way, or whether they would try misdirecting <-- and to what extent and in what ways they would try misdirection. With a bit of observation and a bit of luck, maybe it could be sifted out or decoded as it were. Though the best shot is usually taking a decent look back over the game after you've caught someone.

If I am wrong about Olinea, then obviously I have to completely reconsider my suspects. But I continue to doubt it more and more.

Yoenit, if I may try to convince one person quickly:

...I have convinced myself, just by this one tiny little point, that [Civil is] town.

I raised the point, that considering that Olinea unvoted VC to vote me, he would have to assume that I had placed myself in absolutely pointless and tremendous danger to go for one mislynch over some other mislynch. Now, I didn't realize it at the time, but in his change of heart post, Olinea doesn't reason this in the same way. He just claims to be going off the basis that I wouldn't of tried so hard to get the -one- mislynch, on him. (Which makes sense, if we consider his experience, realizing/thinking as scum that running through a Civil mislynch this game would have landed him in hot water). Not only is it a little tenuous to propose that no IC (my experience is supposedly factored into his reasoning) had ever gotten carried away, or done it by mistake, or pushed a mislynch really hard and got away with it (rest assured I've done this many times irl), it should be even less convincing if Olinea really suspected VC. It was not totally clear whether or not he still did inbetween then and now, until he used his past suspicion of him just recently. He should be now, or during the interim depending on "when" he began leaning towards VC again, "closer to the fence on me." If VC were scum (compared to the mislynch to mislynch thing I would have done), if VC were scum, then I'd have much much more reason to have taken a chance at nailing a townie (if I thought I had a good shot at it- like when there are two top suspects, and going to be plenty of votes with perhaps not the most original reasoning given, at a relatively good time for me to "change my mind" and "sorry, guys, damn, messed up on that one, it happens a lot") and saving my scum partner in the process. I know I said I'm not sure if I would think the risk would have been worth it, but it is FAR AND AWAY a less gray area of WIFOM than VC and Olinea being townies and me still jumping all over Olinea.

If Olinea really suspected VC now, or in the interim, it should have seemed more reasonable that I could be scum and would have tried to drive a lynch on a townie who looked opportunistic. If he though VC is scum, then he shouldn't have a feeling of "I'm certain of your townieness on this tiny point." And at the least, he should be closer to the fence on me than the extreme area he claims his read is in now.

But, given his second look at VC and his now voting for VC, he never moved, and isn't moving closer to the fence on his read of me now.

The explanation for this has two likely possibilities in my mind:
1- He doesn't really suspect VC.
2- He knows VC is a scum, and I am a townie. And because of that, failed to factor "thinking" VC is scum into how his read of my play should be affected.

Could you explain (as best you can cause I know sometimes you can't really explain reads but) what about Olinea's dropping the case on me that made you feel like he's just a townie trying to find scum and make the right decisions, as compared to the 'Oh crap, this has quickly become a lose/lose situation for me' (which is how I read it).

It really is time to send him back to his Mod.

[Yoenit]

Yoenit, if I may try to convince one person quickly:

...I have convinced myself, just by this one tiny little point, that [Civil is] town.

I raised the point, that considering that Olinea unvoted VC to vote me, he would have to assume that I had placed myself in absolutely pointless and tremendous danger to go for one mislynch over some other mislynch. Now, I didn't realize it at the time, but in his change of heart post, Olinea doesn't reason this in the same way. He just claims to be going off the basis that I wouldn't of tried so hard to get the -one- mislynch, on him. (Which makes sense, if we consider his experience, realizing/thinking as scum that running through a Civil mislynch this game would have landed him in hot water). Not only is it a little tenuous to propose that no IC (my experience is supposedly factored into his reasoning) had ever gotten carried away, or done it by mistake, or pushed a mislynch really hard and got away with it (rest assured I've done this many times irl), it should be even less convincing if Olinea really suspected VC. It was not totally clear whether or not he still did inbetween then and now, until he used his past suspicion of him just recently. He should be now, or during the interim depending on "when" he began leaning towards VC again, "closer to the fence on me." If VC were scum (compared to the mislynch to mislynch thing I would have done), if VC were scum, then I'd have much much more reason to have taken a chance at nailing a townie (if I thought I had a good shot at it- like when there are two top suspects, and going to be plenty of votes with perhaps not the most original reasoning given, at a relatively good time for me to "change my mind" and "sorry, guys, damn, messed up on that one, it happens a lot") and saving my scum partner in the process. I know I said I'm not sure if I would think the risk would have been worth it, but it is FAR AND AWAY a less gray area of WIFOM than VC and Olinea being townies and me still jumping all over Olinea.

If Olinea really suspected VC now, or in the interim, it should have seemed more reasonable that I could be scum and would have tried to drive a lynch on a townie who looked opportunistic. If he though VC is scum, then he shouldn't have a feeling of "I'm certain of your townieness on this tiny point." And at the least, he should be closer to the fence on me than the extreme area he claims his read is in now.

But, given his second look at VC and his now voting for VC, he never moved, and isn't moving closer to the fence on his read of me now.

The explanation for this has two likely possibilities in my mind:
1- He doesn't really suspect VC.
2- He knows VC is a scum, and I am a townie. And because of that, failed to factor "thinking" VC is scum into how his read of my play should be affected.

If understand you correctly the core of your argument is that if Olinea truly believed VC is scum, he would still be suspicious of you, because of your unvote when VC reached L-1, as that would be a typical scum move. A good point and one I should have another look at. One thing however, option 2 is only possible if VC and Olinea are scumpartners, which I would consider very unlikely given his L-1 vote on VC when Razgriz was at L-2.

Could you explain (as best you can cause I know sometimes you can't really explain reads but) what about Olinea's dropping the case on me that made you feel like he's just a townie trying to find scum and make the right decisions, as compared to the 'Oh crap, this has quickly become a lose/lose situation for me' (which is how I read it).

It really is time to send him back to his Mod.

His reasoning behind the unvote seemed logical and one I could have made myself. You were attacking him quite hard at the time but he was still at L-4, so there was no immediate reason to abandon his vote on you. However, I see I need to reread page 23 now with your argument in mind. Oh, what is Mod in this case?

[Yoenit]

A big problem for me is that as VC and Olinea are very unlikely scum partners as I said in the previous post. My theory that VC is scum and your theory that Olinea is scum are therefore incompatible. If I were to switch over to Olinea now I would have to completely drop the case on VC and I am not ready to do that yet.

[Olinea]

God, the website kept going down for me today.

Why would you need to be perfectly clear about something like that?

I need to know what's going on. I didn't understand what you were trying to say, nor do I now.

(That's what I meant btw, by all means, please hammer Olinea. But first announce an honest intention to hammer if it's VC you choose to vote for)

Wait, so you have to state your intention to hammer if it’s VC you’re going after, but not if it’s me? Jeez.

Just because you have competing BW's doesn't mean you need a dual or simultaneous claim. I suggested this idea in a tough decision in a past game, and it was summarily shot down by some wiser than I.

I claimed before VC got a wagon.

The idea is to avoid making a serious mistake, not to make the town's decision easier, or to get "information" on players by such means.

Well, only if they believe you, although it didn't appear to convince any of you 4.

So I just think it would be more proper, and safer/better, if VC doesn't claim until someone says that they are definitely going to kill him. Too close to deadline, with people's activity levels, I realize this approach could be problematic. But at the moment, it's for the best.

Guessing I jumped the gun on my claim? Still, I didn't know what everyone elses' stances on me were. Although a quickhammer w/o claim is a really bad idea.

Imo, this is a strange ass comment to say to the person you're trying to lynch.

He voted Neil (1st most widely suspected person on D-1), then was on the VC wagon, then voted for my wagon, then voted for Olinea. The only wagon Raz hasn't been on was his own.

Raz has never voted for me.

I raised the point, that considering that Olinea unvoted VC to vote me, he would have to assume that I had placed myself in absolutely pointless and tremendous danger to go for one mislynch over some other mislynch.

Actually, come to think of it, I had forgotten you had a vote on Chaim at that point. I was more focused on

me

being lynched.

Now, I didn't realize it at the time, but in his change of heart post, Olinea doesn't reason this in the same way. He just claims to be going off the basis that I wouldn't of tried so hard to get the -one- mislynch, on him. (Which makes sense, if we consider his experience, realizing/thinking as scum that running through a Civil mislynch this game would have landed him in hot water). Not only is it a little tenuous to propose that no IC (my experience is supposedly factored into his reasoning) had ever gotten carried away, or done it by mistake, or pushed a mislynch really hard and got away with it (rest assured I've done this many times irl),

Didn't know it was possible to get away with something like that, actually; though by this post it seems almost like you're trying to tell me "Don't be so quick as to label me town for the rest of the game".

It was not totally clear whether or not he still did inbetween then and now, until he used his past suspicion of him just recently. He should be now, or during the interim depending on "when" he began leaning towards VC again, "closer to the fence on me." If VC were scum (compared to the mislynch to mislynch thing I would have done), if VC were scum, then I'd have much much more reason to have taken a chance at nailing a townie (if I thought I had a good shot at it- like when there are two top suspects, and going to be plenty of votes with perhaps not the most original reasoning given, at a relatively good time for me to "change my mind" and "sorry, guys, damn, messed up on that one, it happens a lot") and saving my scum partner in the process. I know I said I'm not sure if I would think the risk would have been worth it, but it is FAR AND AWAY a less gray area of WIFOM than VC and Olinea being townies and me still jumping all over Olinea.

It's like you

want

me to suspect you and Chaim.

If Olinea really suspected VC now, or in the interim, it should have seemed more reasonable that I could be scum and would have tried to drive a lynch on a townie who looked opportunistic. If he though VC is scum, then he shouldn't have a feeling of "I'm certain of your townieness on this tiny point." And at the least, he should be closer to the fence on me than the extreme area he claims his read is in now.

I wouldn't consider myself really "opportunistic", or does that refer to Chaim?

The explanation for this has two likely possibilities in my mind:
1- He doesn't really suspect VC.
2- He knows VC is a scum, and I am a townie. And because of that, failed to factor "thinking" VC is scum into how his read of my play should be affected.

I may be new, but even I can recognize that starting a wagon at L-1 against my scumbuddy with two days to deadline is close to the worst possible move I could pull. The worst being something along the lines of saying "Hey guys, just kidding about that Townie claim, I'm really a One-Shot Vigilante!".

It really is time to send him back to his Mod.

Yikes.

[Catterpillar]

Can we stop talking about partners before we know who one half of the pair is? If we extrapolate wrong at this point and get it into everyone's heads that if soandso flips scum then soandso is definitely their partner there's a risk that scum might have NKed them but didn't because of this which would have cleared the so called partner and helped us find the

actual

scum.

I may be new, but even I can recognize that starting a wagon at L-1 against

my scumbuddy

with two days to deadline is close to the worst possible move I could pull. The worst being something along the lines of saying "Hey guys, just kidding about that Townie claim, I'm really a One-Shot Vigilante!".

Scum slip?
_{Yes, that is a joke.}

Also, I'm pretty sure the deadline is at 3am where I am so there's no way I'll be on leading up to it if we get that far.

[Yoenit]

Can we stop talking about partners before we know who one half of the pair is? If we extrapolate wrong at this point and get it into everyone's heads that if soandso flips scum then soandso is definitely their partner there's a risk that scum might have NKed them but didn't because of this which would have cleared the so called partner and helped us find the

actual

scum.

uhm, no. It is directly related to who I am voting for right now, so we should discuss it now. Note I am not talking about likely scumpartners, but extremely unlikely ones.

[Catterpillar]

Can we stop talking about partners before we know who one half of the pair is? If we extrapolate wrong at this point and get it into everyone's heads that if soandso flips scum then soandso is definitely their partner there's a risk that scum might have NKed them but didn't because of this which would have cleared the so called partner and helped us find the

actual

scum.

uhm, no. It is directly related to who I am voting for right now, so we should discuss it now. Note I am not talking about likely scumpartners, but extremely unlikely ones.

I still don't like doing it but your comments are okay I was more meaning along the lines of Civil in post #649 and #661.

[Civil Scum]

His reasoning behind the unvote seemed logical and one I could have made myself. You were attacking him quite hard at the time but he was still at L-4, so there was no immediate reason to abandon his vote on you.

Usually I would agree with you on that point, though he only had one vote at that time he still perceived himself to be in a lot of danger. Does that make ANY sense, at all?

I think this is the breaking point. I think the Day 1 lynch will either be me or Civil.

Olinea, you got 1 vote, without anyone making a move towards placing a second... wow, you must think I'm onto something.

Granted my comment didn't exactly warrant a specific response, but unless I missed it, Olinea never explained why he felt he was in danger when he only had 1 vote.

At any rate, bussing (or at least bussing votes) are more common than you might think. And yes, Olinea voted for VC instead of Raz, but he also said "If you can do this simple thing, then I'll unvote." (After which I pointed out that VC's ability to do the thing Olinea asked was a matter of experience and comfort with the game, not dependent on alignment). He told VC very clearly what to do to get his vote off, and his vote was there for a short time until he saw the beginnings of your case on me, and at that point the town looked like it wanted to lynch both Raz and VC (and might do so in a following day). All of this type of reasoning is going to be inconclusive, but based on how he did it and the circumstances, I think it's more possible that it was a vote for a scum partner (More likely than if me and him were the scum, and he had done it like it). I would also think it would be possible based on what we know about Olinea's thoughts about pushing mislynches (He thinks it's extremely dangerous for a scum. He's said that and reasoned along those lines more than once). When we take that into account, it also seems possible that he would have voted his scum partner, instead of the townie when given the choice, especially if he thought VC had a good shot at being lynched, that day or the next, when it looked like he did.

I'm not saying I think it's unreasonable or illogical for you to feel that way about his behavior towards VC and the wagon, I'm just saying that it's not as unlikely as "he would never do that in that situation."

Can we stop talking about partners before we know who one half of the pair is?

-I don't know what else to do.

-As for my Razgriz comment, it's again one of those things where I'm not saying based off of connection, just the fact that I think Olinea is scum, and then realizing how much Raz has BW'd this game. Partners by individual guilt, not partners based on the flip or their interactions or coordination.

-Personally, this would be the most sure I have ever been on someone, and been wrong. So I feel completely comfortable speculating on his partner (though I haven't re-read yet).

-I don't want to just sit here and wait for people to get back and make up their mind.

-Why does it make you uncomfortable, or why don't you like us doing it?

[Olinea]

-Personally, this would be the most sure I have ever been on someone, and been wrong.

What do you mean by this?

[Civil Scum]

I'll answer that as soon as you explain why you felt the need to be prefectly clear the thing at the top of this page.

[Razgriz]

WHAT????? Have you not been reading my posts or anything? Because, I have been scumhunting alot

Imo, this is a strange ass comment to say to the person you're trying to lynch.

He voted Neil (1st most widely suspected person on D-1), then was on the VC wagon, then voted for my wagon, then voted for Olinea. The only wagon Raz hasn't been on was his own.

When was I voting for oli?