Newbie 982 - Shadows of Death, Game Over!

For Newbie Games, which have a set format and experienced moderators. Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
User avatar
Guybrush
Guybrush
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Guybrush
Goon
Goon
Posts: 515
Joined: September 18, 2009

Post Post #575 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 8:23 am

Post by Guybrush »

Oh, so you did think of it.
But somehow having a lynchless day didn't concern you enough to even try. OK.
Hello, Dexter Morgan
User avatar
Guybrush
Guybrush
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Guybrush
Goon
Goon
Posts: 515
Joined: September 18, 2009

Post Post #576 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 8:30 am

Post by Guybrush »

@Aurorus

Your lack of doubting zauper\theperson slot is based mostly on NK speculation, right?
Hello, Dexter Morgan
User avatar
EarthIntruder
EarthIntruder
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
EarthIntruder
Goon
Goon
Posts: 235
Joined: June 2, 2010
Location: Brooklyn (GMT -4h)

Post Post #577 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 9:09 am

Post by EarthIntruder »

Just letting you know I'm here, finishing up another post now.
I felt Electrodes in the air
When I saw you and you saw me,
But that was before I knew
Your Diglett was so Dratini.
User avatar
EarthIntruder
EarthIntruder
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
EarthIntruder
Goon
Goon
Posts: 235
Joined: June 2, 2010
Location: Brooklyn (GMT -4h)

Post Post #578 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 9:26 am

Post by EarthIntruder »

Thanks so much for the extension, Haylen, I'm glad I can get more time in to defend myself.
AVox wrote:I've previously mentioned a number of scummy things that Omnino has done individually, and putting that into my "interaction" case helped me settle on your lynch. It isn't a case that solely relies on the mild-pair analysis that I did (mild in comparison to GB), but one that became more attractive because of it.
Well, I'm trying to answer for those scummy things, and the interaction part of it doesn't hold much without the individual stuff. Course whether or not I'm defending omnino/myself well enough is up to the rest of y'all.
AVox wrote:Saying you'd be willing to policy lynch to avoid a no-lynch is a risk free move. It might not be scummy per se, but its intentionally neutral; because town "needed" the extra vote to get someone lynched, it doesn't put the pressure on the hammer-er, or at least not as much pressure.
So if it's not scummy, what's the problem with it? I mean, the point that you're making from what I can tell is that it's an easy way for scum to avoid suspicion, which, yeah, I agree with, but I've already tried to tell you that I think omnino was just indecisive. He said so in his first post.
AVox wrote:It's only four to lynch to day because there are only seven players alive :)
Oh, right, derp. I'm thinking of the last game I replaced into at L-1 x_x I haven't got a very good track record with replacing at the moment.
AVox wrote:Can you explain this?

If he had other options, are you suggesting that Omnino's declaration of hammer-intent of seth was bred out of a suspicion of seth rather than to avoid a no-lynch? In which case, why did he try to guise it as no-lynch avoidance?
No, I don't think omnino suspected seth - what I meant was that there was so much suspicion on seth when he replaced in that omnino didn't have to worry about putting the hammer on him. I took omnino's saying he'd be willing to hammer either, preferring theperson, as meaning that he'd hammer seth, but only if it was necessary to prevent no-lynch, and since seth's lynch was looking a lot more likely than theperson's at the time, that's why he didn't hammer.
AVox wrote:But Michel's argument - of the opportunistic bandwagon - was a strong one, and it seems to have more legitimacy now that I know that there were no ulterior motives behind it.
But the thing is, you don't know whether he would've changed his mind if he were still in the game now. And, not that I doubt Michel's skill, he's a way more experienced and better player than I am right now, but it's always possible that he was wrong. I disagree with his read of zauper/theperson.
AVox wrote:Well, the one-PR slip I feel is a legitimate one; using his experience when he was mafia to look for a scumtell is still looking for a scumtell. He expands on these reasons in his #18, which I'll go into below. As I said before, I think you're right to be wary of theperson in as far as some elements of his case seem to rely on the scumhunting done by others. Would you make the same accusation of 2k3?
I could understand theperson's suspicion because of that as well, but I don't see him making a case based on anything else strong. It looks like an opportunistic vote to me. And I wouldn't make the same accusation of 2k3 - he's at least tried to scumhunt on his own.
AVox wrote:EarthIntruder, what did you make of theperson's #18? You said in #545 that you felt it was empty of real scumhunting. Was there a reason you neglected to go into detail about what specific elements of the post in you found suspicious? Or why you haven't asked him any questions about it directly?
Honestly, I didn't notice what you pointed out - what with the deadline and all I was in a hurry to respond to other people's points, and more concerned with defending myself. But let me take a closer look at that post now.
theperson wrote:I'm not sure if he meant it that way or not, but he said that Michel was handing me a town card, when he was actually handing me a town card IF I got quicklynched. He did have somewhat of a town read on me because of zauper, but he wasn't saying I was confirmed, which is what omnino made it sound like. Again, it could just be a misunderstanding. Also as Guybrush pointed out it's partially a waste of time because it was so close to deadline.
It's pretty easy to put words in Michel's mouth when he's not around, huh? Let me pull up a couple of quotes from him.
Michel wrote:Rereading Zauper in isolation, I'm not at all convinced by the argument that Zauper is agreeing with others more then would be natural. The way I see it, Aurorus gives his argument for 2003 being scum, and Zauper listens, goes to check if it's correct, then votes.
Michel wrote:I am NOT willing to support a zauper lynch. There are better cases out there then the case against him, and in my memorie, some players were joining his bandwagon far too opportunistically.
Michel wrote:One of the main reasons
I believe him to be town
, is that if I look at the players who claim to be suspicious of him, and if I look at when and how they declared that suspicion, it seems to me that far too many players are attacking him opportunistically on weak reasons, following the rest of the town. This herd mentality is in my experience almost always the result of scum pushing for an easy mislynch.
Like I said before, I don't agree with Michel's read, but that looks pretty unambiguously like he was sure zauper was town. What made you think he wasn't?
theperson wrote: ISO #15: Another misunderstanding I think. He was getting the wrong thing from what Michel posted. I think here he could have been trying to find inconsistencies in Michel's play so purposely misinterpreted it to try and add to his argument. Just because of the fact that it happened (I think) in ISO #11 and 12 makes me think it might not be a coincidence.
This is a pretty vague statement, so let me quote omnino's ISO 15.
omnino wrote:
MichelSableheart wrote:Regarding reading Zauper's ISO: I read his ISO to check the argument that Zauper agreed with others more then usual. I paid particular attention to the sections of his ISO that were relevant for that argument, and skimmed over the rest.
4 posts of 15 are blatant passive agreement in Zauper's ISO. So if you read them you read the 30%-odd of his posts that were nothing but agreeing. Would you not say that 30% of someone's post total is an awful lot to surrender to simply nodding your head?
What is omnino misunderstanding here?
theperson wrote:Scum always has it narrowed down to two suspects.
What does this even mean? You think omnino was scummy for having two suspects? How is that in any way a scumtell?
I felt Electrodes in the air
When I saw you and you saw me,
But that was before I knew
Your Diglett was so Dratini.
User avatar
AurorusVox
AurorusVox
He/Him
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
AurorusVox
He/Him
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 9257
Joined: March 12, 2010
Pronoun: He/Him

Post Post #579 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 9:39 am

Post by AurorusVox »

I was concerned that we'd have a lynchless day, which is why I directly asked 2k3 to vote. Since we'd already brought deadline extensions up once towards the end of D1, I didn't think there would be much use in asking today because I thought we'd already had the answer (the post of Haylen's that I quoted).

---

No, not "mostly." It's based
partially
on NK speculation, and partially on Michel's read of the opportunist-bandwagon on Zauper (which I agree with). And since Michel is town, I know his read didn't have an ulterior motive.

I disagree that I "lack doubt" regarding theperson. I'm aware that the NK could be WIFOM, and there are a few things that he's done that are suspicious even if we just talk about his latest post (I listed some of these in my #564). Were Omnino to flip town, I'd look at theperson more closely. But I have been willing to treat him as town for the purposes of today's lynch.


I'll respond to EarthIntruder in my next post.
THE LEMON LIVES! - Cabd
User avatar
AurorusVox
AurorusVox
He/Him
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
AurorusVox
He/Him
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 9257
Joined: March 12, 2010
Pronoun: He/Him

Post Post #580 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 10:05 am

Post by AurorusVox »

EarthIntruder wrote:So if it's not scummy, what's the problem with it? I mean, the point that you're making from what I can tell is that it's an easy way for scum to avoid suspicion, which, yeah, I agree with, but I've already tried to tell you that I think omnino was just indecisive. He said so in his first post.
It's not explicitly scummy in and of itself but
because
it's risk free I find it suspicious. I don't think it was indecisive, but I think it comes down to a matter of opinion.

EarthIntruder wrote:No, I don't think omnino suspected seth - what I meant was that there was so much suspicion on seth when he replaced in that omnino didn't have to worry about putting the hammer on him. I took omnino's saying he'd be willing to hammer either, preferring theperson, as meaning that he'd hammer seth, but only if it was necessary to prevent no-lynch, and since seth's lynch was looking a lot more likely than theperson's at the time, that's why he didn't hammer.
If it wasn't going to be necessary, then there was no need for him to say it. So did he say it to appear to be in favour of the majority of town's decision? Up til 2k3 unvoted in #352, he could have put his vote back on theperson to put theperson at L-1, but he didn't. If theperson was his favoured lynch, why didn't he do this? He could have voted for theperson regardless of whether he thought he could get him lynched or not.

EarthIntruder wrote:But the thing is, you don't know whether he would've changed his mind if he were still in the game now. And, not that I doubt Michel's skill, he's a way more experienced and better player than I am right now, but it's always possible that he was wrong. I disagree with his read of zauper/theperson.
Of course he could have. I'm not saying that theperson is cert-town.

EarthIntruder wrote:
AVox wrote:Well, the one-PR slip I feel is a legitimate one; using his experience when he was mafia to look for a scumtell is still looking for a scumtell. He expands on these reasons in his #18, which I'll go into below. As I said before, I think you're right to be wary of theperson in as far as some elements of his case seem to rely on the scumhunting done by others. Would you make the same accusation of 2k3?
I could understand theperson's suspicion because of that as well, but I don't see him making a case based on anything else strong. It looks like an opportunistic vote to me.
I can understand your view if you're town, because his case would looks weak and opportunistic. This is why I've said that I would look more into theperson if you flipped town.

EarthIntruder wrote:And I wouldn't make the same accusation of 2k3 - he's at least tried to scumhunt on his own.
His reasons for wanting to vote you are based on gut. Where was the scumhunting?
THE LEMON LIVES! - Cabd
User avatar
AurorusVox
AurorusVox
He/Him
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
AurorusVox
He/Him
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 9257
Joined: March 12, 2010
Pronoun: He/Him

Post Post #581 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:24 am

Post by AurorusVox »

Guybrush
- do you find 2k3 not turning up to vote suspicious at all?
THE LEMON LIVES! - Cabd
User avatar
2003041
2003041
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
2003041
Goon
Goon
Posts: 190
Joined: July 6, 2010
Location: Your Face, Boston, MA

Post Post #582 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 12:47 pm

Post by 2003041 »

I apologise for today. I woke up and was called in to work early, meaning I had no access to my laptop in the morning. Then I had to stay an extra 3 hours because of how busy it was. I just got home now! I thank Hayl for the extension and I think it's time to put the boot down. I really hope something good comes out of all this chaos.
Vote: EarthIntruder
Show
New Game: Town 0W//1L Scum 0W//0L Power Roles: 0/1
Replacement: Town 1W//0L Scum 0W//0L Power Roles: 1/1
Work by day, Guitar Hero/Rock Band by twilight, Mafia at night. THAT, my friends, is a perfect day!!!


We need subscribers for our GH/RB team to be sponsored.
http://www.youtube.com/user/TEAML3G3NDOFFICIAL <----Subscribe here to help us.
User avatar
Hinduragi
Hinduragi
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Hinduragi
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 5041
Joined: June 30, 2010

Post Post #583 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 1:31 pm

Post by Hinduragi »

GB:
2.1 - Agreed.

2.2 - I never gave you a scum point. I said I didn't know what to think about it. I'm pretty certain either scum or town would go after that statement so it's null tell. Interesting that you interpreted it that way, though.

2.3(In order of the questions asked/statements made) -
Yes.
Well, I don't know what you want me to do about it. My ISO #2 is proof that I knew he was getting his replaced.
Ok. This is what I've been trying to say: ISO #1/ISO #2 were made around the same time with no posts between them. So, you can just consider them both as the same post since none of my reads/opinions changed between them, just my knowledge.
EI wrote:Again, Hindu's willingness to vote omnino seems to be most based around the fact that he said
I haven't exactly broken out a full case on omnino but you skipped my entire re-read post if that's the one reason you picked up for him being my second top suspect.
AV wrote:I found it a little odd that he suspects you of being MM's partner, and yet wouldn't vote for you despite it looking like Mastermind wasn't getting lynched. I wondered if he was either a. b. c.
My vote's on Akira because I'm more certain he's scum. If I see a lynch looming in on my third top suspect or someone lower or a no lynch, then I'll be fine with switching my vote to omnino. Asides from those cases arising or my suspicions changing, I like my vote where it is.
GB wrote:I'm GMT +1 and it's 18:30 here.
Which means there is 2:30 hours left til the deadline.
If someone doesn't hammer, I'm going to rape (mentally) people not voting the next day.
Wait, omnino had the most votes at the time of this post, so isn't he going to get lynched anyways? I don't get it.
EI wrote:Course whether or not I'm defending omnino/myself well enough is up to the rest of y'all.
Funny, because before GB mentioned it, you had made a one-line defense.
EI wrote:But the thing is, you don't know whether he would've changed his mind if he were still in the game now. And, not that I doubt Michel's skill, he's a way more experienced and better player than I am right now, but it's always possible that he was wrong. I disagree with his read of zauper/theperson.
Care to explain why? (Don't get me wrong, theperson's lurker vote was pretty scummy but I would like to know more. I still see the zauper case as pretty weak)
AV wrote:But I have been willing to treat him as town for the purposes of today's lynch.
Why?

Preview Edit: There's the hammer. Kinda ironic that 2k3 turns up right after AV asks GB about his activity.
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
User avatar
AurorusVox
AurorusVox
He/Him
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
AurorusVox
He/Him
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 9257
Joined: March 12, 2010
Pronoun: He/Him

Post Post #584 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 2:09 pm

Post by AurorusVox »

Hindu -

My reads and re-reads pointed to two brackets; Omnino/Hindu/Akira and theperson/Guybrush/2k3. Since I think the likeliest scum are in the Omnino/Hindu/Akira bracket, I was willing to forgo trying to lynch one of theperson/Guybrush/2k3. I'm fairly certain we've got our first scum lynched, in which case the field of investigation will narrow considerably.
THE LEMON LIVES! - Cabd
User avatar
EarthIntruder
EarthIntruder
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
EarthIntruder
Goon
Goon
Posts: 235
Joined: June 2, 2010
Location: Brooklyn (GMT -4h)

Post Post #585 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 3:30 pm

Post by EarthIntruder »

Bah. :/

Can I say anything during twilight?
I felt Electrodes in the air
When I saw you and you saw me,
But that was before I knew
Your Diglett was so Dratini.
User avatar
Guybrush
Guybrush
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Guybrush
Goon
Goon
Posts: 515
Joined: September 18, 2009

Post Post #586 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 3:32 pm

Post by Guybrush »

Rule:
2. The person lynched may still talk during Twilight.
Hello, Dexter Morgan
User avatar
Hinduragi
Hinduragi
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Hinduragi
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 5041
Joined: June 30, 2010

Post Post #587 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 3:32 pm

Post by Hinduragi »

Yes. Give us as much info as you can before your lynch.

Also, I'd like to ask who your top 3 suspects were and why?
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
User avatar
EarthIntruder
EarthIntruder
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
EarthIntruder
Goon
Goon
Posts: 235
Joined: June 2, 2010
Location: Brooklyn (GMT -4h)

Post Post #588 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 3:39 pm

Post by EarthIntruder »

My top three right now would be theperson, followed by AVox and mastermind. I'm nowhere near as certain about the last two as I am about theperson - a lot of my suspicion on AVox probably comes from my defense not convincing him, to be honest, and as for mastermind I just find his cases so far to be very weak and both he and Akira just seem to be fading into the woodwork most of the game. 2k3 is a bit suspicious as well, but he's probably last on my scumlist at this point since I think a lot of his play can be chalked up to newbiness. More detailed responses in a second.
I felt Electrodes in the air
When I saw you and you saw me,
But that was before I knew
Your Diglett was so Dratini.
User avatar
EarthIntruder
EarthIntruder
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
EarthIntruder
Goon
Goon
Posts: 235
Joined: June 2, 2010
Location: Brooklyn (GMT -4h)

Post Post #589 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 3:51 pm

Post by EarthIntruder »

AVox wrote:If theperson was his favoured lynch, why didn't he do this? He could have voted for theperson regardless of whether he thought he could get him lynched or not.
Like I said, I think he was indecisive because he'd already gotten heat for putting theperson at L-1 before.
AVox wrote:I can understand your view if you're town, because his case would looks weak and opportunistic. This is why I've said that I would look more into theperson if you flipped town.
Well, I suppose now that I'm lynched I can say, look into him, because yeah, I'm town.
AVox wrote:His reasons for wanting to vote you are based on gut. Where was the scumhunting?
I meant he'd scumhunted at other times - theperson I never really saw scumhunting much at all.
Hindu wrote:I haven't exactly broken out a full case on omnino but you skipped my entire re-read post if that's the one reason you picked up for him being my second top suspect.
Apparently I did. If there's time left, I'll take a look at and respond to what I can before twilight ends. I just looked at the first suspicion on me I saw from you.
Hindu wrote:Care to explain why? (Don't get me wrong, theperson's lurker vote was pretty scummy but I would like to know more. I still see the zauper case as pretty weak)
I saw zauper as latching onto wagons and agreeing a lot with other people, which I think made him scummy, and I think that theperson has barely scumhunted either, ESPECIALLY not today, as I pointed out his case on me is hella weak. I don't know if I would've found zauper scummy enough to have voted him had I been around Day 1, but I would not have cleared him completely, and I think that the suspicion on him was justified. That combined with theperson's play today leads me to think that Michel was wrong in his analysis.
I felt Electrodes in the air
When I saw you and you saw me,
But that was before I knew
Your Diglett was so Dratini.
User avatar
Guybrush
Guybrush
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Guybrush
Goon
Goon
Posts: 515
Joined: September 18, 2009

Post Post #590 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 4:42 pm

Post by Guybrush »

Soooo, we're going into LyLo. :? I was feeling rather good about this lynch.

And this is my guess:
1st scum:
Hindu or zauper
2nd scum:
Aurorus or Akira
Total of 4 combinations.

I must say that I'm considering Aurorus + zauper as a real possibility.
I noticed he never voted for zauper, even though I remember he expressed some concerns about him. (Careful ISO is needed. The voting table is not online BTW). The deadline thing I still don't appreciate. And another thing I noticed long time ago, but wanted to check more of his behavior before mentioning it - He was more often going for easy targets, and less often for strong people.
He never went after me or Michell, even though Michell gave some reasons to doubt him. He went for Seth, and was too aggressive IMO. He tried to go for 2003 today as well. And then he copied my top 3 suspects, seeing the 2003 case is not going well. And here's the truth - if Aurorus is scum, you'll never get better than this. He's a smart player and won't make dumb mistakes. I'm just saying that we all should consider him as a quite possible scum member. Comparing Aurorus' behavior in this game to the ones where he was scum and town would be interesting. I never really doubted zauper, but theperson D2 activity was just terrible.

I will have to rethink my position once again, but it seems I kind of suck at this. We'll all sleep on this, and continue where we left off.
I'll respond in the meantime on some other stuff.
Hello, Dexter Morgan
User avatar
Guybrush
Guybrush
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Guybrush
Goon
Goon
Posts: 515
Joined: September 18, 2009

Post Post #591 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 5:05 pm

Post by Guybrush »

@Aurorus

I still find it interesting because this was such an obvious course of action to me, even though I was fully aware of Haylen's previous answer.
But let's leave it at that. We both said what we think.

Regarding 2k3 - not showing up is extremely scummy. Him doing scummy stuff is nothing new.
I have my strong reason to believe he's not scum, and only one thing can change my mind. (Of course, I can't tell you which one ATM.)
Hello, Dexter Morgan
User avatar
Guybrush
Guybrush
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Guybrush
Goon
Goon
Posts: 515
Joined: September 18, 2009

Post Post #592 (ISO) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 5:50 pm

Post by Guybrush »

@Hindu

2.2 - You said "if you're town ... you shouldn't further confuse the town about it". You seemed to believe I was confusing town with attacking your "Guybrush is 99% town" statement. Which would by your logic imply that I'm not town. So you did give me scum-points. Even though you mentioned you're not sure. You disagree?

2.3 - I understand all you said, but still don't see what's your point. Maybe I can sum up my thoughts, and you then tell me why is this scenario less likely than yours:
-You know Akira is missing from the start
-You make a case on Akira since it's easier for you
-You claim you just now realized he's gone, since it could be considered scummy to go after a missing player
-But the case is already made, and you say you realized it after, so you're good
-I ask you what did you read last, to trap you
-You respond in a way that would confirm you not knowing about Akira
-I say it's a lie
-You invent the trap story, and try to make me back off with the 99% comment
-I say that 99% story doesn't make sense
-You agree that you were wrong

I understand that all of this might not be true. But I still don't understand what's your point against it. I caught you in a mistake twice (post answer + 99% case). The first you defended as a trap. The other as a honest mistake. When I see mistakes, I tend to believe they're from scum. Or are you not even trying to make a point against my case? In that case, it's a misunderstanding and we can leave it at that.
Hello, Dexter Morgan
User avatar
AurorusVox
AurorusVox
He/Him
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
AurorusVox
He/Him
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 9257
Joined: March 12, 2010
Pronoun: He/Him

Post Post #593 (ISO) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:51 am

Post by AurorusVox »

Guybrush wrote:I must say that I'm considering Aurorus + zauper as a real possibility.
I noticed he never voted for zauper, even though I remember he expressed some concerns about him. (Careful ISO is needed. The voting table is not online BTW). The deadline thing I still don't appreciate.
(RE: The voting table - it tells me that everyone should be able to see it; just in case here's the link again)

I had expressed my concern but that was mostly through watching other peoples' cases on him. I believe that at the point I was considering voting for him I would have been putting him at L-1, but the biggest thing I had on him at that moment was the "defensive stance" comment. Everything else was borrowed from other people, and I don't want to put someone within hammering distance on the merit of other peoples' cases. You yourself that you didn't have a scumread on Zauper - so can you really blame me for not wanting to put him at L-1?
Guybrush wrote:And another thing I noticed long time ago, but wanted to check more of his behavior before mentioning it - He was more often going for easy targets, and less often for strong people.
He never went after me or Michell, even though Michell gave some reasons to doubt him. He went for Seth, and was too aggressive IMO. He tried to go for 2003 today as well.
You've been my strongest town read all game, so I wasn't too interested in going after you. I've not really been that suspicious of Michel. Omnino's case on Michel was okay, but at that point in the day, I didn't feel the need to go for Michel, since Seth seemed cert-scum, and Michel had initiated the seth-BW.

Seth wasn't responding to nice questions - so I got a little aggressive. He was certainly aggressive enough to me, so fight fire with fire and all that. 2k3 has been consistently scummy, and I don't believe he should have been given a free ride after some of the comments that he has made.
Guybrush wrote:And then he copied my top 3 suspects, seeing the 2003 case is not going well.
I wondered when you'd accuse me of this. This is why I asked if you needed more explanation;

-Daystart (#418) - top suspects; 2k3/Omnino/Akira
-Midway through (#495) - top suspects; 2k3/Akira/(Omnino as third placed)
-After ISO (#526) - top suspects; Omnino/Akira/Hindu

Really the only changes were that Hindu was scummier than Bazz (his shaky defences in particular; which came after the #495), and I hope you understand why I started to think 2k3 might be town after all. If anything, you (with your "no suspects" at the start of D2) have copied 2 of my top suspects ;)
Guybrush wrote:And here's the truth - if Aurorus is scum, you'll never get better than this. He's a smart player and won't make dumb mistakes. I'm just saying that we all should consider him as a quite possible scum member. Comparing Aurorus' behavior in this game to the ones where he was scum and town would be interesting.
I can link you to my games if you want to read them. In Chronological order:
Town, Town, Town, Town, Scum, Town.

And you should always consider anyone being scum possible. A 2k3/Guybrush scumteam is quite possible. But I don't think its probable.

---

I'm not liking that theperson has disappeared, again. If Omnino's townclaim is real (I don't see why he'd be lying at this point) then theperson will have a lot to answer for tomorrow.
THE LEMON LIVES! - Cabd
User avatar
Guybrush
Guybrush
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Guybrush
Goon
Goon
Posts: 515
Joined: September 18, 2009

Post Post #594 (ISO) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 1:51 pm

Post by Guybrush »

@Aurorus

So you don't think you're partially guilty of making seth appear scummy with your aggression that produced only more aggression from his side? When you notice "bullshit" or two in his read when he's not even arguing, then you can anticipate what would happen in an aggressive environment. You were supposed to know that aggression would produce more aggression, and that he might end up looking guilty as hell, as a product of his personality, rather than alignment.

And one more thing which you didn't allow me to poke around. I'm going to say it anyway. I think the most obvious choice for N1 kill was either you or me. I thought I have a 50% chance of getting lynched. And I think if you're town, you should have had the same concerns about you as well. And when you think you have a 50% chance of not continuing the game, then you do not reread the thread during night time. You reread the thread during night time either if you think you're not going anywhere or if you KNOW you're not going anywhere. I know you said you don't wanna talk about it, but it pissed me a bit, since I couldn't get my (however miniature) read on you. I didn't do a reread during night for that exact reason. You did (in #394 you said so). Which could indicate you being scum.
(You and I both found our explanations why we weren't killed and why it made sense only after, but you were initially surprised with a Michell lynch, like myself. Which would mean that you were probably thinking you're one of most probable kill candidates.)


Here's the feeling I have about you - you never went after me because you noticed our similar play-style, and figured I wouldn't go after you as well. I was paranoid about you the whole time (even though you never gave me strong reasons to believe so, and even though I never publicly shared my concerns), so I wonder why you were never paranoid about me. Because no one ever really interrogated me (except mastermind). And you saw how all my reads are messed up, so you decided to ride along, since I would be the one to blame. I went after Valk first. You continued with Seth. I went after omnino first. You went after that. I just wonder if all of my reads so far were so messed up, why are the people joining my cases? I don't know, this might not have anything to do with you, maybe I'm just frustrated that I can't get anything right in this game. And I thought I was rather good until now. Are you frustrated at all with your reads so far?
Hello, Dexter Morgan
User avatar
AurorusVox
AurorusVox
He/Him
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
AurorusVox
He/Him
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 9257
Joined: March 12, 2010
Pronoun: He/Him

Post Post #595 (ISO) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 3:34 pm

Post by AurorusVox »

RE: seth
I don't think it was down to me that seth was lynched; there were already reasons to be suspicious of the Valk slot (you yourself gave it 80% due to Valk); he wasn't answering questions; he responded only with aggression and to aggression. If he was town, he was anti-town, and if I was causing him to appear scummier, why didn't you say something about it then? The only person who raised it at the time was Bazz.

RE: the NK
I wasn't "surprised" that I wasn't killed. I was surprised at the NK because I had thought that theperson would be NK'd, since he had claimed townie and no one had followed his lynch through (i.e. it looked like few people doubted his claim). This is why I didn't think I (or you) would be killed; my surprise wasn't that we were alive, but that theperson was. But thinking about it, Michel's NK fits in with town-theperson being alive (since I had thought scum would try to push his lynch based on (a) him not being killed, (b) his biggest town-proponent now being dead, and (c) him being the alternative wagon in D1). But things didn't happen that way. With the Omnino-mislynch, it makes me wonder even more about Scum-theperson.

RE: The Feeling
Aw, come on, please...are you saying that you really want me to out why I'm not paranoid about you? You gave me reasons to suspect you today but I have seen a strong reason to believe that you are town based on your play during this day,* though I don't think its in town's best interest to reveal that reason. I would rather that you suspected me and dealt with it in your own way than reveal it, if that makes sense to you. Do you get what I'm referring to? I need to know whether you understand because I could be completely wrong about this in which case my willingness to leave you be will look awfully suspicious to you.

I don't think anyone can blame one person for a mislynch. I would not say "Guybrush is to blame that Omnino isn't scum" - when me, theperson, 2k3, and Hindu (that's 2/3rds of the players) all agreed that Omnino was suspicious. As for "going along with it" or "joining your case", I feel this is a misrepresentation possibly brought on by the same paranoia that makes you worried that people will blame you for mislynches; to say I just "joined in" with your case discredits the huge amount of effort I put in to doing the Trio Re-read back earlier in D2.

The (whole town's) seth read was wrong, but not messed up. He was scummy. He was the correct lynch for the information at our disposal on that day, even if he wasn't the right one in hindsight.

It seems that the (majority of town's) Omnino read was wrong**. I am frustrated that I didn't push the Akira/Mastermind vote more, but it was getting close to deadline and so I compromised for my third suspect. After the reread Omnino looked most suspicious and nested nicely with Mastermind as his scumbuddy anyway. It's frustrating, but at the same time many of Omnino's actions have been highly suspicious, so it's hard to

So yes, I am annoyed that we've not lynched scum yet because I feel like most of my scumhunting has been good but I've not been getting the results I was looking for. To me, this is seeming like a situation where scum are just sitting back and letting town-fight-town, and argue themselves in circles; lots of scumhunting, little results. After all, when MasterMind disappeared, I tried to keep the pressure up, but it's hard to build a case against someone who isn't here. The two people who would be guiltiest of this are theperson and MasterMind. I'll see if I have a chance to post a re-read of theperson before Haylen closes the thread, and look for connections in that respect.


*I'll post my 2k3/Guybrush case in the next post.
**INB4 Omnino is actually scum.
THE LEMON LIVES! - Cabd
User avatar
AurorusVox
AurorusVox
He/Him
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
AurorusVox
He/Him
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 9257
Joined: March 12, 2010
Pronoun: He/Him

Post Post #596 (ISO) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 3:40 pm

Post by AurorusVox »

My concern with the GB/2k3 relationship comes down to the patterns of suspicion on their part;

#456 (GB) Asks 2k3 to reveal top suspect based on gut

#457 (2k3) Omnino is top suspect (gut read: 2/10)
#488 (2k3) Top suspect is omnino or theperson; says this is gut
#497 (2k3) would vote for Omnino on gut/setting up mislynch; changes this to Hinduragi for the "lame" comment
Gut doesn't require well argued cases; it's simply "gut feeling." 2k3 has had a problem with making comprehensible cases, and so this could be GB giving his scumbuddy a way out. On the other hand, could be GB helping out a player who he strongly sees as town.


#498 (GB) establishes that Omnino, Hinduragi and Mastermind are his top three suspects

#501 (2k3) Explains the "lame" scumslip more, it is based on the word "lame". Then, "Still" finds Omnino more suspicious than theperson based on gut, despite the reason for finding him suspicious actually having come from theperson.
I don't think this argument that he offers about the use of the word "lame" is particularly strong; much less do I understand the lingering suspicion on Omnino. If 2k3 was scum, this could perhaps be explained as keeping Omnino because GB has now said that he finds Omnino a top suspect.


#512 (GB) Case against Hindu, including "lame" comment, but this accusation focuses on the order of the posts
#516 (GB) Case on Omnino
#517 (GB) Believes the winning pair is Hindu/Omnino
These cases are far stronger than 2k3's. Almost as if GB saw that 2k3 had pitched his suspicions, and was now legitimising them with better thought out arguments. The focus on the "lame" post is a perfect example; the order of the posts
is
odd, though the word choice itself isn't (in my opinion). Then again, this could just be two people finding different reasons to suspect the same person. What I find most interesting is that neither found a case on the "third" suspect; this either makes 2k3 & GB more suspicious, or gives more credibility to the hindu/omnino scumteam, depending on how you look at it. Now that Omnino is appearing to be a mislynch, the former possibility looks to have more truth behind it.



I'm not saying that I think GB and 2k3 are scum, but I am certain that IF one of 2k3 or GB is scum, the other has a good possibility of being scum too. I can believe that this suspect relationship is mere coincidence, or both finding different reasons to suspect the same person, or a multitude of other reasons, but it is something I noticed that seemed to strike a chord with me. I see more hypocrisy coming from GB now that he's accusing me of "following" his votes, when the same could be said between him and 2k3.
THE LEMON LIVES! - Cabd
User avatar
Guybrush
Guybrush
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
Guybrush
Goon
Goon
Posts: 515
Joined: September 18, 2009

Post Post #597 (ISO) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 4:44 pm

Post by Guybrush »

@Aurorus

Just to make sure - if you put yourself in my position, can you blame me for finding you suspicious for all the reasons I stated? Or do you think I'm being completely irrational about this? I'm aware that all explanations you provided could be true, and that I don't have nothing solid against you. But if you're scum, you're going to be great scum. And how do you deal with a guy like that? Things seem off with you, for all the reasons I stated which really can go either way.

Re: Seth

I didn't say it was down to you. I said you should hold partial responsibility for making him look scummy. And I was wondering if you agree. The aggressive approach to someone like that was not the right one. I never said anything about it, because - as I explained, I wanted to observe your behavior a bit more before ever mentioning that I suspect you at all.

Re: NK

Oh. I never thought theperson would get night killed. The town suspected both seth and theperson. Seth flipped town and theperson was not even close to being considered town by others. But OK, we can leave it at that. I figured you thought the same as I did about NK.

Re: The Feeling

Lol. It will be so funny if we all are thinking about different things. I think I know what you're talking about and in that case it's better we don't talk about it. But during whole day 1, you seemed to just eliminate me as a suspect without ever interrogating\trapping me for real. It's just unusual to me, coming from you.
EDIT: (you added a new post) Yeah, maybe we're not thinking about the same thing. But better not to discuss it anyway. Tomorrow should make things more clear to everyone.

Re: The blame

There are usually leaders and followers. Theperson and 2k3 surely fall into followers group. Hindu never voted for omnino. I know my intentions were true, so I'm doubting yours. I'm being paranoid about you being great scum, that's all. Your trio reread was rather late in D2 (after mine), if we're thinking about the same reread. Part of my frustration is due to my reads being wrong, and people going the way I suggested. It could be explained by you giving me wings by supporting my case. I think I need a break from this, maybe I'm not thinking clear ATM.
Hello, Dexter Morgan
User avatar
Hinduragi
Hinduragi
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Hinduragi
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 5041
Joined: June 30, 2010

Post Post #598 (ISO) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 5:03 pm

Post by Hinduragi »

2.2 - Yes, I disagree. It was more of a reprimand or note rather than implying you aren't town. If I wanted to suggest you're scum, I would've said "Town doesn't confuse town".
GB wrote:I understand that all of this might not be true. But I still don't understand what's your point against it. I caught you in a mistake twice (post answer + 99% case). The first you defended as a trap. The other as a honest mistake. When I see mistakes, I tend to believe they're from scum. Or are you not even trying to make a point against my case? In that case, it's a misunderstanding and we can leave it at that.
Yes, this is exactly what I've been trying to say.

Right now, I don't have time to read these walls coming up. I'll get to them tomorrow. It's late and I won't wake up on time if I stay up any longer.
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
User avatar
AurorusVox
AurorusVox
He/Him
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
AurorusVox
He/Him
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 9257
Joined: March 12, 2010
Pronoun: He/Him

Post Post #599 (ISO) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 5:18 pm

Post by AurorusVox »

I can't blame you for finding me suspicious but if you knew the reason then I believe your suspicions would drop away, or at least you should be able to see why I've not pursued things like the case in my "new post" throughout D2. (God I hate all this talking in code; but I think we understand each other and that we're thinking of the same thing so lets leave it there). As for D1, though it wasn't the same reason, I still had a very high town estimation of you and I didn't see a reason to probe that at that point.

My GB/2k3 post is an example of what I've found suspicious - not where my suspicions lie. Nevertheless it's good to raise it in case my "reason" is wrong and you've been playing me for the fool ;)

---

RE: Seth
Do you think he was scummy or do you think I made him look scummy? I think he was going to look scummy regardless of what I did. Maybe I made him look "more" scummy but I didn't tip the balance from town to scum by any stretch of the imagination. Also, what other approach would you have suggested taking? My questions weren't getting answered :\

RE: NK
Since we're now talking about it anyway: What did you figure about the NK?

RE: The Feeling
(It's kinda covered above already)

RE: The Blame
My intentions? Well, if I'd ignored looking at Omnino and instead argued passionately for a Mastermind lynch, we'd have ended up with nobody getting lynched. I admit that I shifted focus to Omnino after your case had given me good reason to suspect him, but I also agree that I'm not a follower, which is why I made the re-read, even though it was later on in the day. And the re-read had Omnino as a better lynch candidate than Mastermind, even in the event of Mastermind being scum. The way I saw it, either one of the scum resided in Akira/Hindu, neither of who were voting for Omnino; and both of whom meshed well if Omnino was their partner. I didn't stick to my #1 individual scum suspect, but I certainly went for the best lynch candidate. It sounds like you're tilting (poker term?) - seeing that you've been wrong and then trashing all your previous reads. The Hindu/MM suspect read could still be on the money. If I'm right about you, if my reason is correct, then at least one of them has to be scum.

And if "followers" try to blame the "leaders," lead them to the desert and leave them there: tell them to scumhunt for themselves next time ;P

----

I've prepared a theperson ISO. I'll be posting it shortly as I don't think I'll get on much tomorrow and I kinda want to say it before nightfall...
THE LEMON LIVES! - Cabd

Return to “The Road to Rome [Newbie Games]”