As the day came towards sunset you decide that Zachrulez has been acting scummy.
"CLAIM YOU SCUM," One of you exclaims.
You all stand bewildered as Zach clears everyone out of the way grabs a mic and starts singing.
"I'm a survivor,
I'm not gon' give up.
I'm not gon' stop,
I'm going harder."
"It's a ploy to fool us," another of you yells over the music before running up to the singing Zach stuffing the microphone down his throat suffocating him.
You all rush over to his body and look through the things in his pocket. One of you pulls out a gun from it's holster hidden under his jacket. He was obviously one of the bad guys.
Zachrulez - Mafia Goon - Lynched Day 2
It is now nightime. Night phase will end in about 48 hours. All night actions must be sent in by then.
Sorry Guys my bookmarks went screwwy on my computer and so I missed stuff for two games one of which was this one. Everything will be put right though I promise. The elongated night phase was directly related to myself and had nothing to do with night actions.
True to his name he was a doctor and he was sick. Sadly he wasn't a good enough doctor to save himself from the sickening feeling when he realised he was about to die.
The rest of you wake up in the morning and rush to the house of the absent person. After some looking around you find a trapdoor leading to a cellar. Looks like he was keeping a secret. But in the cellar you find an assortment of medical utensils inclusing a stethoscope.
drmyshottyizsik - Town Doctor - Killed Night 2
It is now day time. The deadline is in two weeks from this post.
how you deal with VI-town on Day 1. Once you realise they are likely town, you ignore them as a possible lynch candidate, forcing scum to take care of them at night. I was paranoid this town would eventually succumb to temptation and want to lynch him. I like where this game is going now that we've got a scumflip. I think we're just about able to crack this one wide open. Expect something from me shortly.
Gunning for ConfidAnon instead of Zach yesterday, might end up being a costly decision for redtail. Something tells me this is where I should be looking today, though it certainly wasn't subtle in any way. My immediate plan today upon finding myself alive is to revert back to my wagon analysis, and I have some great new leads to follow with this handy boost in information. It really is amazing how much easier the game becomes once you've got a confirmed scum to work with. However, I highly suggest everyone else to reread the thread in light of this flip and try to work out where Zach's attacks seem genuine and where they seem fabricated, and conversely how other players treat him.
Claiming your previous suspects are scum
without
looking at what Zach did, and their attitude toward Zach will not fly with me. It is absolutely necessary to filter this new information into your play. So, before I unveil some more analysis, I want others to look at their suspects and try to figure out their ties with Zach. After doing this, if you cannot reasonably find any way to tie that player with Zach as scum, you must drop it and move on and find someone else that fits. Just please do that for me.
Otherwise, I'm working hard on finishing my new analysis of Day 1 and 2, and while I'm reluctant to give too much away just now, I think some of you might be able to catch where I'm going with it. Kid Know Nothing isn't as hot on my radar as yesterday, I'm happy to say. Everything will be revealed shortly though.
First, I want to say that I think it is unlikely that Zach did any bussing. To bus effectively, you have to make a lot of accusations (mostly non-bussing) and I don't feel like Zach did enough of that for him to accuse a scumbuddy. Therefore I think that G&H is probably town, seeing as Zach was pushing for a G&H lynch pretty heavily. I think Almaster is probably town for reasons that have already been discussed.
Now, to check the post-flip information against my suspicion of VRK...
Zach wrote:I'm getting a town vibe from Vel.
Zach wrote:As far as why I'm voting you over shotty and VRK. I can see where VRK is coming from. (Even though I don't feel the same way.) Also as I said before, he's giving me a town vibe.
These are the only statements that I can find from Zach that mention Vel. And Zach's "town vibes" aren't seeming so townie to me these days.
Some men are born mediocre, some achieve mediocrity, and some have mediocrity thrust upon them.
- Joseph Heller
gonnano wrote:First, I want to say that I think it is unlikely that Zach did any bussing. To bus effectively, you have to make a lot of accusations (mostly non-bussing) and I don't feel like Zach did enough of that for him to accuse a scumbuddy. Therefore I think that G&H is probably town, seeing as Zach was pushing for a G&H lynch pretty heavily. I think Almaster is probably town for reasons that have already been discussed.
This is a pretty solid point for G&H to be town - Zach was largely in favour of a G&H wagon on Day 2, and endorsed a lynch of G&H toward the end of Day 1 when a possible scramble was on the cards. The one thing that makes me pause, is the Zach wagon came out quite quickly on Day 2 - which if he thought he was likely to be lynched, it wouldn't be a bad play to bus your buddy that hard - making the wagon competing with you to be scum as well. I feel Zach wasn't invested in the game enough to pull such a canny maneuver, though, and his targeting of G&H on Day 2 looked more like a carry over from his suspicions from Day 1 than clever distancing.
It's already been mentioned, but I agree with Hoopla and gonnano that the Zach flip makes G&H more likely town, considering that Zach was on G&H from the get-go for day 2. I understand where gonnano is coming from, and there's nothing I can do about Zach mentioning me except to step up my game today and try to make as good a case for myself as town as possible. I realize that I was rather quiet for Day 2. Let me look things over and see what I can come up with.
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EBWOP: Looking at the voting record, it probably also clears Alamaster to a degree, as Zach focused on AGM quite a bit on Day 1. This is strictly off voting record, and no analysis yet.
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Ok, my next best read for Mafia is KKN, based on the following:
In Zach's iso post 34, he says that every point CA made against him (Zach) could be turned around, and that it's interesting that KKN isn't interested in CA, only Zach. I think this also goes a long way toward clearing CA as well, as it doesn't make sense for Zach to go after one of his partners at this point in the game (half-way through page 19, about 5 days left to day 2 deadline). It makes more sense for Zach, who's already in hot water, to stay as far away from his partners as possible. This sounds a bit contradictory, considering what else is in that iso post wrt KKN, but none of that looks like anything substantial. They point fingers at each other, but it doesn't ever seem to go anywhere. If KKN really thought Zach was scum, why not vote him? He basically votes for G&H for his playstyle (iso post 14), but then comes back and defends him (iso post 19) wrt gonnano's posts against G&H from earlier. If KKN really thought that Zach was scum, this was the post to unvote G&H and vote Zach, since he's got a wall of text towards Zach, which Zach answers with his previously-mentioned iso post 34. This looks to me like Zach and KKN are throwing softball questions at each other to show suspicion for later and gain town cred, while not contributing to the demise of one of their own.
I thought at the time that Hoopla's iso post 61 was a bit much and it was far too early to put that kind of analysis into the day 1 happenings, but there are usable items in there. Especially the breakdown of the competing wagons. I think with Zach's flip, I'm leaning more towards Alamaster being Town. Zach voted for 4 people the entire game: Shotty, AGM, Elleran, and G&H. Two of them have flipped as Town, and G&H is strongly viewed as Town now because of Zach's interactions with him yesterday. That leaves AGM. Zach's play looked like he was riding bandwagons to easy lynches, hopping on and off the shotty and AGM wagons two times each before casting a deadline vote for Elleran. This doesn't look to me like he was going after AGM-Scumbuddy. Therefore I'm looking more at KKN than CA as Hoopla outlined under the "If AGM is Town" section.
My final point is that KKN has only voted for two people - AGM (Day 1, late) and G&H (Day 2, late). I view both of AGM and G&H as likely Town, AND Zach has voted for both of them as well. The only niggling bit is that I wouldn't think that KKN-Scum would follow Zach that closely with voting (especially on Day 2), but at the time KKN added his vote to G&H Zach only had 4 votes and we were only on page 16 (Day 2 started on page 15), so it's possible that KKN didn't consider that the Zach wagon would run it's course, considering the competing wagons yesterday. We also didn't get a vote count until page 17, so it's also possible that KKN was unaware of how many votes Zach had at the time and that following him like that could be an issue.
VOTE: KKN
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Just thinking that mafia and vanilla plus one doctor isn't quite enough. It might help me with my reads, but mostly I'm just curious. Nothing worth gathering new data for, but if you've already got the information I would be interested in it.
Some men are born mediocre, some achieve mediocrity, and some have mediocrity thrust upon them.
- Joseph Heller
he says that every point CA made against him (Zach) could be turned around, and that it's interesting that KKN isn't interested in CA, only Zach.
" So, as scum, I focus on Zach while I try not to displace suspicion off of him? This makes no sense to me. If CA and Zach were doing the same things, then wouldn't one of my goals, if I was scum, be to soften the wagon against Zach by placing CA as the competing wagon?
Yes. I've voted two people all game. Two people who are now, on day three, considerably more townie. Explain to me how voting players who are no where near being close to lynched is a smart scum play. I could understand going for an active lurking approach, but do you consider the posts I've made close to being active lurking?
And isn't this a case of the pot calling the kettle black? Vel, you've voted four times all game. Three times before the post you've just made. Once for Hoopla. Which is probably the most grey of the votes. Once for Almaster, once for Elleran. One likely townie, one confirmed.
And just going through your isolated posts;
Vel-Rahn Koon wrote:
redtail896 wrote:
AlmasterGM wrote:ANYWAY, NONE OF THIS EVEN MATTERS RIGHT NOW BECAUSE WE ARE LYNCHING ZACHRULEZ BECAUSE HE IS SCUM.
Please explain to me why Zach is scum and ConfidAnon is not. I think CA has flown way under the radar here for essentially playing the same game that Zach has. VOTE: ConfidAnon
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I agree with this, re: CA flying under the radar. I'm also with shotty when he says that we have more than 1 scum.
If I had to go off of basic theory, Zach's play looks scummy. I'm not a big fan of meta, seeing as how I got burned by using it in another game, but I don't recall Zach playing like this. What troubles me is posts like 462 have got fairly good points in it and make me wonder if the Zach wagon isn't a goose chase.
Either way, I think that suddenly veering off course to go after someone who's playing the same way is anti-town.
@G&H: with regards to my last post, there's a problem I thought of with your reasoning. The scum may be honest in saying that he finds player X scummy, but at it's core that is a complete falsehood, because the scum KNOWS that player X is NOT scummy, because he's not on the scum's team.
Besides, this isn't what I was talking about. In fact, this is a very MINOR point I brought up. My post dealt with the need for Town to give analysis so that they can "prove" that they're town. I think you've basically ignored my entire point and focused on the one thing you could wishy-washy explain away. I'm going to go back and re-read that big post of yours, and if I don't see analysis I'm voting for you.
Vel-Rahn Koon wrote:
ConfidAnon wrote:...and eventually "mistakenly hammering" Elleran.
Vote: Zachrulez
CA, can you link me to this post please? I don't see it.
Vel wrote:EBWOPreview: Zach: Do you honestly think shotty is scum enough to waste a lynch on him?
Vel wrote:@Zach and redtail: what do you think of the argument between AGar and AGM now that you're starting to see more of their points? The initial points you both brought against him were based on his statement of an illogical claim AND you were agreeing with AGar. Do you still think AGar's points hold up?
"
So all game, you've addressed Zach four, very brief, times. Twice, you soft-defended him. Once, you asked him a easy question, one that could be taken as you giving advice to your scum-buddy. ("Why waste the lynch on the town VI?")
Hoopla wrote:Hey Vel, would you be okay with a redtail lynch?
I've gotten Town vibes off redtail all game, so I haven't really been paying attention to him. I need to go over his play before I can give you a definitive answer.
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gonnano wrote:Just thinking that mafia and vanilla plus one doctor isn't quite enough. It might help me with my reads, but mostly I'm just curious. Nothing worth gathering new data for, but if you've already got the information I would be interested in it.
It's not enough - but I'm not going to aide mafia in any way as to what would (and wouldn't) be a believavle claim before a massclaim happens (which should be either today or tomorrow).
Well, let me explore each of the remaining "alive" players potentially being mafia partners with Zachrulez:
ConfidAnon-Zachrulez - I have mentioned this possibility quite a few times. I had noticed that both of them didn't do much on Day 1 and I thought this could be a good excuse for their lack of interactions, that's why at the end of Day 1 I asked both of them to say something about the other but at the time they didn't. So I found it quite curious that they started interacting immediately on Day 2 (as if my observation from Day 1 showed them that they should interact)... Their dialogue seemed somewhat strange to me, more like simulating an interaction than a real interaction... And while ConfidAnon immediately voted Zachrulez, Zachrulez expressed suspicions against ConfidAnon only a couple of times, otherwise concentrating mainly on me. In post #462, Zachrulez said: "It's less interesting that pretty much every point that ConfidAnon made against me (minus the wagon hopping point) could easily be made against him and more interesting that KKN seemingly isnt interested in him" - I'm not sure how to interpret that but it sounds to me like Zachrulez acknowledges that points can be made against ConfidAnon but at the same time states that's not really interesting, i.e., Zachrulez is trying to deflect the focus from ConfidAnon... And then Zachrulez tries to use against me the fact that I didn't answer the question "Good & Honest, is your alignment anything other than Town?" - which was originally asked by ConfidAnon. An argument against ConfidAnon's being partner with Zachrulez is that during the whole Day 2 ConfidAnon repeatedly mentioned not having anything to comment on, just restating suspicions of Zachrulez - if Zachrulez were ConfidAnon's partner, I'd expect ConfidAnon at least to explore other possibilities for mafiosi...
AlmasterGM-Zachrulez - on Day 1, they were both eager to get rid of drmyshottyizsik. I said I wasn't happy with that and, when at the end of the Day Hoopla asked who would be willing to lynch me, they both raised hands... And then they both attacked me on Day 2 (Zachrulez voted me, AlmasterGM mentioned me as second suspect after Zachrulez). I don't know how likely it is for mafia partners to do similar things like that... But they did accuse each other quite a few times on Day 1 - which, in my opinion, mafia partners could do in order to distance themselves from each other. Also of note is that before AlmasterGM made that unexplained vote for Elleran, AlmasterGM was voting Zachrulez... Then on Day 2 AlmasterGM voted Zachrulez after three other players had already done so - the question is would someone bring a partner this close to a lynch? Finally, I find it notable that, after having accused AlmasterGM so much on Day 1, on Day 2 Zachrulez didn't mention AlmasterGM at all apart from a short remark in the defense against Kid Know Nothing's case.
Hoopla-Zachrulez - Hoopla didn't really interact with Zachrulez on Day 1; Zachrulez commented on Hoopla's claim in the beginning and I perceived that as support for Hoopla. Then on Day 2 Hoopla immediately voted Zachrulez despite not commenting on Zachrulez the previous Day... As a whole, on Day 2 Hoopla seemed eager to lynch Zachrulez - that's somehow surprising if they are partners. However, at the end of the day Hoopla gave the other players another "option" to vote for - Kid Know Nothing (who had received no votes at the time)... What I find quite noteworthy is that Hoopla repeatedly stated that EXACTLY ONE of Zachrulez and AlmasterGM is a mafioso. Taking this into consideration, if Hoopla is a partner with Zachrulez, it would seem most logical that the third mafioso is AlmasterGM. There is one thing bothering me about such a solution - as I have already said, at the end of Day 1 Hoopla asked who would be willing to lynch me and both Zachrulez and AlmasterGM raised hands. Would all three mafiosi agree on such a plan?
Vel-Rahn Koon-Zachrulez - Vel-Rahn Koon asked Zachrulez a couple of questions on Day 1 but that could have been just so that there is some interaction between them. Zachrulez's statements of perceiving Vel-Rahn Koon as an innocent townsperson seem strange to me in any case - I wonder how likely it is for a mafioso to make such statements about a partner. But Vel-Rahn Koon's attitude towards Zachrulez on Day 2 is remarkable. Here is what Vel-Rahn Koon says about the votes for Elleran on Day 1: "The last two votes are a wash for me, as they were done to secure a lynch. Because of this view, I REALLY don't like CA's attempt to use it against Zach. The other stuff he's got against Zach is fine, but I'm not ok with that point" - this sounds to me like conceding that points could be made against Zachrulez but at the same time deflecting the focus from Zachrulez. Also, Vel-Rahn Koon said that ConfidAnon had "drifted through the game" on Day 1 and I asked a few times if Vel-Rahn Koon thought the same was true for Zachrulez... but received no answer. Vel-Rahn Koon commented on Zachrulez again in post #479 - only after the other players had already discussed Zachrulez a lot. Maybe Vel-Rahn Koon didn't do much on Day 2 precisely in order not to have to comment on Zachrulez...
redtail896-Zachrulez - here the situation on Day 1 is similar as with Vel-Rahn Koon and Zachrulez - redtail896 asked Zachrulez a couple of questions (about drmyshottyizsik), otherwise there was no direct interaction between them. However, redtail896 did state suspicion of Zachrulez on Day 1. On the other hand, Zachrulez didn't comment on redtail896 at all. Then at the beginning of Day 2 Zachrulez attacked me while it can be said that redtail896 defended me - I guess that wouldn't be a bad tactic if they were partners. However, unlike Hoopla, I don't see why redtail896's vote for ConfidAnon and not Zachrulez was such a problem since redtail896 did mention considering their actions similar. I'm baffled by something else. In post #432 redtail896 made points against Zachrulez but then said: "To the people voting Zach: why should I vote for him". I don't understand why redtail896 would need the other players to give redtail896 reasons for voting for Zachrulez...
Kid Know Nothing-Zachrulez - first I want to say that it has been said that Kid Know Nothing has focused on Zachrulez and not ConfidAnon... but early on Day 1 ConfidAnon was Kid Know Nothing's main focus. Anyway, on Day 1 Zachrulez didn't say anything about Kid Know Nothing. On the other hand, Kid Know Nothing did mention Zachrulez's not doing much and concentrating on drmyshottyizsik. On Day 2, I see Zachrulez's first mention of Kid Know Nothing as a positive one - stating that Kid Know Nothing's posts have content (as opposed to mine). In fact, Zachrulez only talked about Kid Know Nothing in negative light after Kid Know Nothing made a case against Zachrulez. It might be worth noting that Kid Know Nothing's case came at a time when Zachrulez had already received 4 votes. So far I have the feeling that Kid Know Nothing has a special playstyle and, like me, has a special attitude towards voting so I don't really find anything wrong with Kid Know Nothing's voting me while accusing Zachrulez. I'm not sure what to think about their accusatory dialogue... The main thing that makes me consider Kid Know Nothing and Zachrulez being mafia partners is something about post #462 (Zachrulez's "countercase" against Kid Know Nothing). At the end of that post, Zachrulez said: "At this point I'd be putting some serious thought into whether I want my vote on KKN or G&H if not for this one little gem that confid directed at Good and Honest". So Zachrulez didn't switch vote from me to Kid Know Nothing just because I hadn't answered ConfidAnon's question "Good & Honest, is your alignment anything other than Town?" - when I don't see how anyone would expect me to answer it?!
gonnano-Zachrulez - this is the most peculiar case. During the whole game, Zachrulez hasn't mentioned gonnano even once. In return, on Day 1 gonnano solely asked Zachrulez this question: "Zach, what is your position on the massclaim? Claiming protection role/not protection role would be considered an acceptable answer to this question". This lack of interactions certainly looks worrisome. But it has to be said that immediately after asking Zachrulez about the mass claim, gonnano made another post: "EBWOP: Or whatever else you want to say. Not trying to force anything" - somehow I can't imagine someone telling their mafia partner that they're not trying to force them in any way... On Day 2, just like Vel-Rahn Koon, gonnano didn't do that much - and again, this could have been an excuse for not directly commenting on Zachrulez. At one point gonnano asked ConfidAnon an interesting question: "Does Zach seem scummy to you for any reasons other than ones that could also be applied to you?" - but gonnano didn't actually say anything about Zachrulez. Late in the Day, gonnano voted Zachrulez with the words "he's my second choice behind VRK" - in spite of never mentioning such a thing before that.
In conclusion, I'll say once again that anything is possible. I'll have in mind all of the above possibilities. It will be interesting to see how things develop!
Geez Hoopla. Why the sudden urge to go after me? If you have questions, just ask them. What in your analysis is such a smoking gun?
I agree that generally the Zach flip clears G&H.
@VRK: Zach and KKN had a fair bit of back and forth yesterday. I'm not going to break that post down; KKN already did that, but suffice to say I don't think it washes.
Regarding you, all he said was that he got a town vibe from you (twice) and he responded once to a question of yours. And most of your defenses of him, as already noted, amount to defending him. You never express a suspicion of him. You seemed much more interested in CA
Of course, you've also admittedly ignored me all game, and I give you a "town vibe" as well. In addition, I didn't vote for Zach till the very end, and went off on CA. In short, every point made against you can also be made against me. This admittedly gives me pause. I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts.
You can just call me Redtail. If I could, I'd change my name to that anyway.
Redtail, when are you online next? I feel like talking to you live, in a conversation-style way one-on-one will be mutually beneficial for us. I'll be around on and off today, so when you get here, if you could hang around for a chat, that'd be great.
