Newbie 982 - Shadows of Death, Game Over!

[Hinduragi]

GB:

1. Well, that's the truth. I'm not exactly going to come in and start spreading out psychological tricks. It tends to create too much WIFOM, but I guess not doing it does the exact same thing on a lesser level.

2. About pairing you with 2k3, the connections have been apparent to me since the start of today. I had to use that test on you. You both said "Surprising NK". I know you posted it before him, but, nevertheless, he felt the need to copy you. There were so many things that could point to one of you being scum, it was overwhelming. (Such as: Guybrush is scum so he sees that 2k3 copies him(Meaning, if 2k3 is town, he wants to appear town to 2k3) so he defends 2k3. You're both scum and 2k3 slipped hard and you made a really bad move defending him.(Unlikely, considering the type of play you're showing) 2k3 is the best scum I've ever seen and is using epic WIFOM here.) I had to test you either way. Now, for the AtE issue. If I am scum/town, what do I have to gain from faking the I don't know if Akira is being replaced thing? I would still keep my vote on him. If this wasn't the case, I would've unvoted in my 2nd post.

3. I was referring that I wouldn't switch my vote right now when I mentioned that reason and also to call attention to the fact he needed to be replaced.

4. I largely agree with your omnino case. Like I said, he is my second top suspect for scum. The ISO #14 is kind of disturbing. If he supports any lynch and he makes a cheap shot to support a case, how is that neutral? I was more or less put off by the cheap shot part but I think that's just my opinion of him coming off as rude. I'm not put off by it, either. You asked us to not interfere with your investigations so I withheld comment.

5. After you defended him, I ISO'd him, which was during my re-read. It was one of the last things I did.

AV:

No, not really. Scum would attract far too much attention by honestly suggesting such an option. I saw it as GB scumhunting when he asked me that. He would have more info to go off of regardless of my answer.

Anyways, about his comment, he himself stated he thought I was scum because of something he thinks I would do. The only two things I can say are 1.) Nope, 2k3, option a is right. 2.) Nope, 2k3, option c is right. Why is it scummy that I didn't comment on it? There's only one thing I can say to disprove him and that can only be proven by a night-phase or a lynch flip.

I'm probably going to be keeping my vote on Akira/mastermind.
I'm betting his buddy is omnino.
I want to hear more from theperson.
I'm not willing to vote 2003, Aurorus, or Guybrush.
Anyways, since I haven't given my Akira case aside from what was in my re-read, expect that in my next post tomorrow.

[AurorusVox]

Jeez. Around three hours and four pages in Microsoft Word. Here’s my trio of ISOs and, eventually, my vote.

NINJA EDIT: BLAST! Now I have to add another ISO to the list.

The actual ISOing is in the spoiler tags. Conclusions are at the bottom of each one.

The Case on Mastermind

- Mastermind’s play has been suspicious; weak cases when scumhunting, and an avoidance of answering a number of questions when people responded to these cases. This doesn't look townie.
- Some of Akira’s D1 play was suspicious; piggybacking off of others’ arguments (ISO #15), some inconsistencies (ISO #15, #17, #19; ISO #14 compared to #26)
- Akira’s Seth/Zauper problem; in ISO #26, he says he thinks that seth and zauper are the two scums; then in #30, he says he doesn’t consider it a good possibility at all, but his reasons extend back to before #26. He seemed to be wavering between the two, and repeatedly threatened to hammer without actually seeming to want to hammer. Could indicate scum not wanting to have the hammer vote.
- Akira’s early D2 play was a tad off too; asking for who we expected to be NK’d, and his reliance on NK analysis that GB picked up on.

Akira/Mastermind

Spoiler: Akira

#7 , #11: first time Akira mentions Loaka is wondering if he could be accused of lurking. He tries to reassure LM and convince him to play, and then FoSes him. He seems to undercut his FoS by the context that it appears in.

#13: suggests that LM might be a PR. Didn’t realise that this was a bad thing – possibly trying to scare us away from voting for him?

#17: affirms that Omnino will be active (possible link to earlier accusation of LM lurking) and answers his questions

#22-3: next two mentions of Omnino is simply the fact that he has unvoted

#24: first real interaction with BAZZ, agreeing with something he raised

#33: next mention of Omnino is giving him +2 town points, praising his style with much of what he’s done despite Omnino’s Michel suspicions being wrong. If Akira was scum, I would immediately read this as scum trying to give their buddy townie points.

#38: seems to disagree that BAZZ would fake-argue against 2k3. Minor defence of BAZZ.

Spoiler: Mastermind

#2: goes after BAZZ’s play; this felt more honest than his earlier case on Guybrush, but some of the points are really quite weak. Could be read as distancing from a scumbuddy, or it could be strained scumhunting of a townie player from scum. The lack of vote is suspicious and could point to the former.

However; as can be seen, Mastermind has made zero mention of Omnino since he replaced in. Akira also gave Omnino town points for his play style, despite not really mentioning him much prior to that point.

Conclusion: From reading Akira/Mastermind, I have concluded that whilst there are reasons why Hindu might be partnered with Akira (if we believe that they are both bussing each other), I think the simplest explanation is also the likeliest; that Omnino is his partner.

ooBAZZoo/Hinduragi

Spoiler: ooBAZZoo

#17: First mention of Loaka is uncertainty regarding the lurking business

#20: First mention of Omnino is a welcome message asking about Omnino’s experience. Next mention comes in #22 where he says he’d like this question answered.

#27: First mention of Akira, saying “Since Akira’s scumminess seems to be the main topic at the moment”; if it’s such a main topic, why did Bazz not make a mention of it before? Even in this post, Bazz doesn’t make any arguments for or against Akira, but asks Michel why he voted for him. This is a point in favour of a Mastermind/Hindu scumteam.

#28: Questions my unvoting of Akira, and therefore insinuates that Akira is a mislynch, and makes it appear that he is attacking Akira, despite it being indirect and not likely to result in Akira’s lynch. Another point in favour of a MM/Hindu scumteam.

#30: Next mention of Akira is doubting the validity of a question that he has asked. Can’t really see a reason for one scumbuddy to do this to another.

#33: States that he would support an Akira lynch, despite having done very little in the way of questioning him. If he had meant it (and voted for Akira), then this wouldn’t have sat well with an Akira/Bazz scumteam; scumBazz didn’t really need to pledge his willingness to vote for scumAkira, since he had given little reason for people to think that he suspected him prior to this post. OTOH, It could be Bazz wanting to blend in with town in suspecting his buddy, without having to actually make a case against him. Six of one and half a dozen of the other.

Spoiler: Hinduragi

#1 regarding Akira: Berates Akira for saying avoiding questions isn’t a scumtell; says that Akira feels “off”; again takes issue with Akira’s Seth/Zauper vote dilemma; then three points in a row criticising Akira’s play regarding the Seth lynch; finally votes for Akira. The question is motive; was Hindu ever trying to get Akira lynched, or was he trying to disguise Bazz’s lack of Akira-attack? Reading it again, I think this might be too heavy handed for bussing after all, based on the sheer amount of accusations Hindu piles up against Akira. But I won’t rule it out.

#1 regarding Omnino: Says that he would have voted for Omnino but doesn’t; also says he has tunnel vision but didn’t tunnel Omnino. Admittedly it is a re-read of the thread so he had to focus on other people, but the lack of voting for Omnino could indicate an Omnino-Hindu team like GB pointed out. Later criticises Omnino for his FoSing and unvoting, but the accusation is nowhere near as intense as the one aimed at Akira. Similar pattern with his disagreement with Omnino relating to the NK situation; though he is a little more blunt this time, Hindu doesn’t accuse Omnino. His final question to Omnino seems like fluff that can be easily lied about. Makes me think an Omnino scumbuddy could be quite likely.

#2: “Lame” comment – I didn’t find the language scummy, and the explanation that Hindu has offered is possible. I don’t really want to get into this since it’s been covered by 2k3 and GB already.

#3: Asks where Omnino is. Doesn’t say whether this is indicative of scum or not.

#4: Asks Mastermind to be sure to answer his questions

#5: Responds to MM’s questions and reiterates that there are more questions to answer. Could be soft probing to stop MM appearing to be avoiding questions; more likely it’s because he built a case that he doesn’t want to abandon. If MM was his scumbuddy, he might have let his questions drop and use this as an opportunity to unvote.

#7: Omnino hasn’t posted for a long time; asks why he hasn’t been replaced. Saw Akira as a better lynch candidate – could point to Omnino/Hindu team, and another point where he could have unvoted MM.

#8: Omnino is his second favoured lynch, which is ironically quite convenient for scum, whether they want to push a mislynch or avoid voting for their buddy due to inactivity on their part.

#9: Gives more reason to vote for Akira. He surely could have unvoted MM by this point if they were buddies.

#10: Even more reason to vote for omnino (has agreed with the case on him, puts him at second) but retains vote on Akira. Doesn't really look like a MM lynch is on the cards, so leaving his vote there looks to be safe if it's a Hindu/MM team. OTOH, if Omnino is scum (and I think he is), this could be Hindu trying to reduce the votes on his partner's wagon by one.

Conclusion: Hindu is the complete opposite of Bazz – in almost every post, he’s mentioned either Akira or Omnino slots. After ISO’ing both players, I think Omnino makes a better partner to Hindu, unless Hindu is playing fast and loose with his vote, but Ockham’s Razor and all that. The law of numbers says that since Omnino is the likeliest partner to both Hindu and Mastermind, my vote should be there. Omnino has also taken some individually suspicious actions D1 and D2. Reading Omnino in ISO ought to tell me which of the remaining two is omnino’s likeliest partner.

LoakaMossi/omnino/EarthIntruder

(I’m skipping the other two due to lack of posting. You can find my detailed ISO of LM here)

Spoiler: omnino

#1: Mild question of Akira, and asks him to vote – potential coaching and soft question to ease him (Omnino) into the game, but could just be something he’d observed.

#3: Votes for Akira, which seems a little out of the blue. Says it’s a pressure vote, but only around 12 hours have passed since he asked the question; could have intended to vote earlier but forgot, or thought to save it and came up with nothing better. Could be distancing his partner, and he openly explained when he’d retract it. I use pressure votes a lot in D1, so I don’t see this as a massive tell, but in terms of partners, this could indicate a relationship between Akira and Omnino. OTOH, he has drawn attention to Akira when no one had even voted for him at all in the game so far, which could be dangerous and unnecessary.

#4: Retracts comment about Akira not voting.

#5: Apologises to Bazz for not ISOing him yet.

#6: Retracts vote; not really surprising. Would only lynch Akira to prevent a No Lynch – but Akira had only one vote on him at that time, so he wasn’t really going to be the preferred candidate in such a situation. Could be more strained scumhunting or more distancing.

#7: Borrows Bazz’s case to place a vote on Zauper; assuming Zauper is a mislynch, I don’t think he would borrow his scumbuddy’s case. It would make more sense to latch onto a townie’s case and then throw suspicion on them if he subsequently came under fire for mislynching.

#12: Calls Michel’s quizzing of Akira in the early game “ridiculous”, and later calls his suspicion of Akira “fairly weak reasoning.” Perhaps indirect defending.

#14: Changes his “I would lynch Akira to stop No Lynch” to “I would lynch anyone to stop No Lynch” – possibly taking Akira out of the firing line.
There’s nothing on Bazz or Akira in D2 whatsoever.

Conclusion: He makes very little fuss of Bazz, which could indicate that Bazz is indeed his partner. On the other hand, he could be distancing himself from Akira for the reasons stated above. The lack of Bazz/Hindu comment is so stark and blatant, however, that I concur that Hindu is a likelier partner. I still find MM suspect for the reasons stated at the start of this ridiculously long post, and there’s certainly scope to see a MM/Omnino scumteam, but I agree that the case for Hindu/Omnino as a pair is pretty strong, especially with this latest post of Hindu's.

conclusion

Individually, I find Omnino (EarthIntruder) and Mastermind the scummiest. But doing this “pair” analysis does mess that around a bit, and makes Omnino/Hindu look much likelier. In any case, because he matches either Akira or ooBAZZoo, and because of some suspicious behaviour (the “one PR” slip in particular; the potential lying that GB unearthed), I will finally place my D2 vote;

Vote: EarthIntruder

EarthIntruder: I’m sorry for voting you before you’ve fully read the game, but I don’t think that you can explain away the actions that Omnino took even if we had the time to discuss it. But what you can do is give me your reads on both Akira/Mastermind, and ooBAZZoo/Hinduragi in particular (since Omnino didn’t mention Bazz/Hindu much at all, I’d be interested for your take on him the most).

[Guybrush]

@Aurorus

I'll first finish my Bazz read, and then I'll read yours into more detail, but I just want to make sure first:
You are currently sharing my top 3 suspects? (omnino, Akira and Bazz)

[Guybrush]

Bazz individual case

ISO 3

- He interrogates 2003. Provides him with a-b-c answers. He's aware that 2003 was trying to be helpful.
...

Comment:

When you interrogate, you don't provide the other side with answers. You should be more strict.

(neutral)

ISO 5

- He feels bad for interrogating 2003 after his helpful post.

ISO 6

- Explains his back-peddling. (sufficient answer + realization after rereading that he accused a guy who tried to help him)
...

Comment:

#3, #5 and #6 are in contradiction. He seemed perfectly aware that he was going against a person who was helping him. But somehow that made him back off. He suggests he realized that after a reread, which is not true.

(+1 scum)

ISO 9

- Answers to Aurorus' questions and asks does he still have a reason to maintain his vote.
...

Comment:

I don't find it scummy at all (neither individually or in pair), as some suggested.

(neutral)

ISO 11

- Introduces the zauper case and FOSes him.
...

Comment:

I would have thought that scum wouldn't be the first one to make a strong case in the game. However, judging from my view on that case, he maybe wasn't even trying to make a strong case. Town's reaction and wagoning is surprising to me.

(neutral)

ISO 15

- Votes for Zauper.

ISO 18

- Asks town to cool down with Walls-of-texts.
...

Comment:

I could give him a town point for it. It probably was in town's best interest to say it, now when I look at it.

(+1 town)

ISO 27

- Acknowledges that Akira is hot topic, but doesn't give his opinion about it. Only asks Michel about it.
...

Comment:

When someone is hot topic, I think that a townie should be curious enough to give his opinion about it.

(+1 scum)

ISO 30

- Keeps his vote on Zauper. Questions Seth's innocence. He found Aurorus overly aggressive while dealing with Seth.

ISO 31

- He doesn't feel comfortable leaving the responsibility of hammer in Seth's hands, since zauper was at L-1.
...

Comment:

This is what bothered me the most. If that really was his concern, he should have automatically unvoted.

(+3 scum)

ISO 32

- He's now 50-50 with his suspicions. He said theperson dealt better, even though he didn't give us a chance to read him.
...

Comment:

Little information is not a good information. Possible lie, since he saw that zauper lynch isn't happening.

(+1 scum)

ISO 33

- He describes Seth's argument with Aurorus as defensive and aggressive. He said it indicates Seth being scum. Switches to Seth.
...

Comment:

He didn't seem to like Aurorus' approach while dealing with Seth in #30, and described it as aggressive. But still, he takes it against Seth because he was defensive and aggressive. I'd figure that after #30 he'd be more understanding.

(+1 scum)

CONCLUSION

He's no saint. But he played a pretty good game IMO (town or scum). If I ignore the small tells, I'm only left with ISO 31 where I gave him +3 scum points. If there weren't for Hindu, I wouldn't have that much reason to doubt this slot. I'm just way more certain about omnino being scum individually, than Bazz\Hindu.

[Guybrush]

@Hinduragi

1. Sure you would, especially if you thought you'd get away with it. Since it would benefit you in all 3 cases.

Status:

Discussed enough. Continue if you see fit.

Conclusion:

I give you scum points for it because I don't believe in such coincidences.

2. I got a bit lost in your answer, and I think we're not talking about same things, so let's try it again.
Complete this sentence: You concluded that I'm 99% town from me checking your answer because ...

Status:

Would like to clear that up.

Conclusion:

In process.

Spoiler: If you want to go into details

You said before:

"From an analysis of your playstyle in this game so far, if you were scum, you wouldn't have bothered checking."

...

Question:

Why not? What about my playstyle makes you believe I would just blab about things without checking them?

"If you were scum, why would you ask me about something that would pertain to 2k3's "Lame" theory?"

...

Problem:

This ain't true as I said. So please provide a new answer. (Or simplify the one from #525)

Sidenote: We're not talking about same AtE.

AtE I'm talking about:

I accuse you. You respond: "It was a trap. I'm 99% sure you're town." to make me feel good about you.

AtE you're talking about (#525):

"Faking to don't know Akira being replaced". (which ain't AtE)

But to answer your question - what would you have to gain from faking it:
Scum would like to have a case on a missing player, becasue it's easier. Whoever defends, it will be weaker\not strong enough.
On the other hand, scum wouldn't want to do that so obviously since it could be considered scummy (to go after a missing player).
So you faked that you didn't know he's getting replaced.

*I can give you my full 4-6 steps of train of thoughts after you respond how you concluded I'm 99% town from that test.

3. OK. You admit that you answered wrong then. I asked you why didn't you. You answered why don't you.

Status:

Discussed enough. Continue if you see fit.

Conclusion:

You made a mistake. Scum makes mistakes. I give you a scum point.

---

4A. Supporting any lynch is popular, as far as I saw. I just disagree with it. Could be sheep effect, could be scuminess. Hence - neutral.
4B. It was a cheap shot - unnecessary and rude. It can indicate alignment or your personal culture. Can't give him scum points.

*Whenever I'm 50-50 about something and see both options very possible, I give a neutral read.

5. Just to confirm, you are referring to your #459?

[AurorusVox]

@Aurorus

I'll first finish my Bazz read, and then I'll read yours into more detail, but I just want to make sure first:
You are currently sharing my top 3 suspects? (omnino, Akira and Bazz)

Yep. Having looked at the trio's actions, they are definitely all top three suspects in connection with one another.*

I don't really see you as having Akira as a third "suspect" since you haven't really outwardly "suspected" or "interrogated" him at all, and in one of your most recent posts, you say he "may be townie". Why do you keep saying "top three" rather than "top two"?

*I can explain the reasons behind the change from MM/2k3 --> MM/Akira/Bazz if you want

[Guybrush]

@Aurorus

(1) It's a bit unfair for you to try to take Akira as my suspect away from me. I asked you for your help in #524, for you to create a case on Akira\mastermind, since I was busy with other things, and since my partial rereads didn't show him that much scummy - switch interaction (#508) and early day 1 (#178).

(2) Now after I read your "The Case on Mastermind" part carefully, I can give my final opinion about him (as individual):
- I look at mastermind as generally a bad player, which is weird for his experience. Weak cases don't imply scum. Long weak cases could imply scum though. Avoidance of answering is very frustrating, I can agree about a scum point or two for that.
- Akira's piggybacking I don't find that suspicious. And I'm not really sure what inconsistencies you are referring to. (Me being very tired ATM could be the factor.)
- I only now realized that inconsistency. Because his response (#386) to your rather strong accusation (#385) seemed fine to me - he suspects them both, but not together. But he indeed in #26 seem to suspect them both.
- I forgot about D2 and his NK discussion frenzy. Scum points, I agree.

(3) So yes - Akira slot gives enough reason to doubt him after all.
Hindu slot gives enough reason to doubt him.
However, Omnino slot gives the most reason to doubt him.

(4) No reason to explain 2k3. I think more than enough has been said.

(5) If by "may be townie" you're referring to "Mastermind might be town", emphasis is on "hunch, nothing solid".

[AurorusVox]

(1, 3, 5) I was basing the comment on the vibe I was getting that you thought MM was townie (#94: you partially checked Akira and "didn't find him that suspicious"; #96, "kinda ruled out Akira", and yes its only a hunch, but your hunch was townie, not scum). I didn't realise you were still looking to clarify your read, and so I can see why it sounded unfair in that case. But now that you've given your read on him as an individual, I'd like to retract the comment.

(2)
- I chose the term "weak" because I was briefly summarising my earlier accusations. I agree that weaker cases aren't inherently scummy; however, his cases have involved misrepresentation, which I do think is scummy if he did it intentionally. Some of his cases seemed to be stretching/straining, which isn't necessarily scummy in and of itself, but could indicate someone that was trying hard to find scumtells when they aren't really there (and makes sense in light of the possible misreps).
- Inconsistencies: in his #15 I accuse him of lowering the importance of "good discussion" to suit the situation; in his #17 Omnino compares his suspicion of prudence and his suspicion of non-prudence; in his #17, #18 and #19, you and I compare Zauper's four agreements (which was Akira's reason to vote for Zauper) with Akira's own three agreements. This latter is the main one, since "over-agreeing" was good enough to warrant Akira's vote on Zauper, but it took some time and prompting for him to admit that the action was suspicious when he did it.

---

Deadline is in 48 hours from the time of this post (yes, I waited to make this post just so that I could say that).

[AurorusVox]

EBWOP: Hey! My PC clock says 21:00 exactly

[Hinduragi]

GB:

About your bazz case-
ISO 31 - I'm pretty sure that wasn't his main concern. I got the feeling that Bazz was gaining suspicion towards seth as scum and wanted to point it out and give his opinion on the hammering matter.
ISO 33 - It came off to me that he was more concerned why Seth wasn't blunt about why he mentioned the self vote.

2.)

Spoiler: I'm fine with going into detail

Question->Answer: You checked 2k3's games on that other site.
Problem->New answer: You aren't 99% at all anymore. After I saw that, yeah, I had overlooked something and that messed up my read. Furthermore, I don't see any reason to push your own case. If you know you're town and want to avoid a mislynch, you shouldn't further confuse the town about it. I'm not sure what to think about it though because perhaps you just want to gain more information as to what the player is thinking.

Sidenote:
The point I'm trying to make is I knew he was getting replaced. If I forgot to vote in my first post and I saw he was getting replaced before I made the second post, I'd still have voted in my second post. Like I said, if I had a problem with him being replaced and my vote being on him, I would've unvoted.

5.) That's the post.

--

Spoiler: Akira ISO

ISO #10 -

"@2k3: Now, I'm not defending or anything but I'd like to point this out."

He felt the need to point that out before just suggesting someone else is scum. There wasn't any type of defense.
ISO #11 - He suggests Loaka is either a cop, doc, or mafia while giving him advice and he proceeds to FoS him. There wasn't any need to mention the cop/doc thing. Him saying so suggests that he is looking for the cop and doc. He shouldn't be doing so if he's town.
ISO #13 -

"I agree that mafia's main goal would be to eliminate these power roles, but at the same time, an important objective for a townie is to protect them, which should explain my early discussion of power roles."

He's aware that one of town's objectives is to protect these roles. Discussing them helps mafia, not town.
ISO #14 - Claims that he thought we placed votes at the exact end of the deadline. However, when he asked what BW meant and said that he didn't see it on the abbreviation list, this means he read the wiki. Since he read it, I'm assuming he should've known this. I'm unable to say whether he read it before his ISO #2 though so this is speculation.
ISO #15 -

"Regarding zauper, my reasons are the same as everyone else's. His agreeing looks a lot like he's trying to look on the town's side when he probaby isn't."

I found it ironic that his posts include plenty of agreeing as well.
ISO #16 - ...He went V/LA and left his vote on zauper.

"While I'm there, my vote will be on zauper, and my reasons are stated in post #185"

Let's go and look at his reasons again.

"Regarding zauper, my reasons are the same as everyone else's. His agreeing looks a lot like he's trying to look on the town's side when he probaby isn't. Other than that he often asks questions which were already answered, stating that he 'wasn't satisfied with the reply'."

Yep. Two whole reasons for voting zauper before V/LA. Agreement(Which he(Akira) himself did) and for asking questions whose answers he(zauper) wasn't satisfied with.
ISO #17 - Denies that he's been agreeing on a similar level to zauper. Just going through this ISO right now, I don't even have to check to know that's a lie. Wants to know if his agreeing is a null-tell or not.(Now ask yourself why he'd want to know this) His vote is on someone for this agreeing so he views this as a scumtell. When addressing omnino, he reveals he knows a big deal about how mafia play even though this is his first game.
ISO #19 -

"And I believe that at this point in the game, over-disagreeing is more suspicious than over-agreeing."

Now that he's been accused for it and is being pressured, he feels the need to state this. I feel like he is saying this so people will start looking for over-disaggreeing rather than over-agreeing in his posts.
ISO #20 - Lists zauper's agreements and his thoughts on them as his case. He says

"this is what I think about zauper"

implying he finds zauper scummy for just his agreeing now. He also suggests he has a theory about zauper's posts at the end of the post.
ISO #21 -

"When others had a certain opinion on someone, they kept it for at least a couple of posts, while with zauper I haven't seen it last more than one or two posts"

Well, apparently he does have reasons for his vote. He lists how he's scumhunting and what he's hoping to achieve by asking zauper questions at the end of this post. Town have no reason to do this. Scum wouldn't care as long as noone noticed.
ISO #27 -

"I might end up withdrawing my vote and voting for you, seth, but I'll wait for that."

He's going to vote for seth. Asking him the

"Do you 100% deny that you're scummy"

question was, as I said, pointless. Seth was too agressive to consider anything besides a "I'm town" answer which Akira himself had taken note of in ISO 29.
ISO #28 -

"I believe I'll keep my vote on theperson, but if one vote is missing to lynch seth, I'd change my vote. I personally don't like the idea of letting scum act first."

One vote is missing to lynch seth. Hesitiation to vote after seth said "But hey, if you're looking for an excuse to hop the bandwagon, be my guest" is noted.
ISO #29 -

"I believe so, because I don't think a townie would insist so much on the "I'm town" thing after hearing people say that it's useless and counter-productive. I'll wait for theperson's response and decide what to do with my vote."

They aren't exactly going to say "Yo, I'm mafia, you got me" to your question so I don't know what you were looking for here. Looks like false scumhunting.
ISO #30 -

"Something a scum (newbie in his case) would never do to his buddy. He makes town start concentrating in him more often, which isn't good."

Outs zauper(formerly his #1 suspect) as town for now because he thinks the Valk/seth slot is scum.
ISO #31 -

"seth has done little to no scumhunting, and his vote has made me start to agree with Michel that theperson is looking like an easy mislynch for the scums."

He replaced in and it was near the end of the day. People were beginning to narrow down choices on a lynch. The only other viable lynch besides himself was theperson. Seth voted for theperson and kept it there. The main subject of discussion was himself and his actions at the time so most of his posts were directed at preventing a mislynch on himself. This isn't a good reason to switch your vote and hammer at all.
ISO #33 - I think this is interesting. He lists omnino as 2 town, unlike the popular idea at the current moment. He decides to wait a bit for other reads.

[Guybrush]

@Hindu

2.1 Question->Answer

So, to check if I understood right - you felt that me and 2k3 might be scum-pair. And you knew that I was checking his game. So you figured that I wouldn't go check something you said, because I (as scum) would know you're not scum and that whatever scumhunting I'm doing of you, that I would know it's false. Did I understand you right? If that is the case, then you should have said "Guybrush is 100% consistent" and not "Guybrush is 99% town". Do we agree about that?

2.2 Problem->New answer

Lol. Ok. So let me sum up what happened:
- I try to trap you.
- You fall in.
- I say you lied.
- You change the story and give me a 99% read.
- I say that's bad logic, since 99% conclusion made no sense to back it up.
- You now admit that you messed up your read and overlooked something.
- BUT, you now give me a scum point for pursuing it because I'm confusing town.
- Because if I'm town then I know that your "Guybrush is 99% town" read is almost correct (100%), and wouldn't have pursued it. Right?

False.

The 99% thing is connected to the case

on you

. And I decided to pursue it to get a read

on you

. This is not about me, it's about you. You can't go giving people town reads when they are not in place. When you give town reads with no logic to back them up, it makes me feel you're scum trying to make me back off from your case. How on Earth did you give me a scum point for pursuing

your

logical fallacy?

2.3 Sidenote thing

I'm sorry. I'm not seeing your point. Maybe it gets lost in translation, I just have difficulties to see the point you're trying to make.

"The point I'm trying to make is I knew he was getting replaced."

... - I don't get it. This is new to me. You appear to have just found out about him being replaced only in your ISO #2. Is that correct?

"If I forgot to vote in my first post and I saw he was getting replaced before I made the second post, I'd still have voted in my 2nd post."

... - Well that didn't happen. And I can't just take your word for it.

"Like I said, if I had a problem with him being replaced and my vote being on him, I would've unvoted."

... - I'm not saying you have a problem with any of that. I say you knew it all along, and that you like it that way.

*I can give you a town-point for enduring this and being quick with responses, though.

[theperson]

OK, I'm not even gonna make excuses. Suspect me from this if you want. I'll just get to it.

EarthIntruder: I understand not being able to read through in 1 day...

---

Looking through the ISOs, regrettably I didn't have a sudden breakthrough that no one else has discovered. I have decided that I would prefer an EarthIntruder lynch because:

1. I noticed some things Omnino did suspicious after I replaced in. I hadn't noticed much before that, because that was towards the end of my readthrough and I was so confused at that point.

2. It seems like everyone or almost everyone is OK with his lynch.

Guybrush did a good job summing it up in post #516, but I do have some things to add.

His argument on Michel (ISO #11 and 12) was largely a misunderstanding. I'm not sure if he meant it that way or not, but he said that Michel was handing me a town card, when he was actually handing me a town card IF I got quicklynched. He did have somewhat of a town read on me because of zauper, but he wasn't saying I was confirmed, which is what omnino made it sound like. Again, it could just be a misunderstanding. Also as Guybrush pointed out it's partially a waste of time because it was so close to deadline.

ISO #15: Another misunderstanding I think. He was getting the wrong thing from what Michel posted. I think here he could have been trying to find inconsistencies in Michel's play so purposely misinterpreted it to try and add to his argument. Just because of the fact that it happened (I think) in ISO #11 and 12 makes me think it might not be a coincidence.

ISO #21: He quotes my post but completely neglects to answer where he saw 2k3 being confused. He said:

If you're looking to pick a scum candidate out of us three, I'd pick theperson. 2k3 comes off as more confused, but being suspiscious and unwilling to lynch is IMO worthy of closer attention than 2k3's confusion.

So, I asked him where he saw that 2k3 was confused. He quoted the post that I had written that in but didn't answer the question at all. This gives me reason to suspect an omnino-2k3 scumteam. Seems to me like omnino was trying to protect 2k3 so he gave a reason, but he couldn't back it up.

Then of course there's the whole power role thing. First he says:

whatever power role this town has is still out there doing it's thing.

Not necessarily true. Then he says:

Power role

intact.

Still not necessarily true.

Scum don’t know jack about power roles until they hit them.

Never true. Scum always has it narrowed down to two suspects. It could be an honest mistake, or it could be that he's a member of a two goon scumpair and has it set in his mind that there's one power role then tries to make up for it, but doesn't think it through. Or both.

So I'm ready to vote EarthIntruder. Should I vote now because it's close to deadline, or wait for his catch-up post? I think it's fine and we need pressure, so I'll VOTE: EarthIntruder (L-2).

Sorry if it's not organized well. I've never been much of an organized person...

[Guybrush]

@Theperson

Could you give some comments on cases made against Akira and Hindu? Do you find any of them suspicious enough?
And if omnino (Earth) flips scum, it seems that your vote tomorrow will be on 2003.
How certain would you be about it? Any other possible buddy with omnino?

Comment on your previous post - I find it unnecessary for you to "argue" with omnino while quoting him 3 times about a power role slip. He already admitted a mistake, and we all are aware of what happened. The only question is if the slip was real or not, which you could have summed in one line. That whole part of your post reeks and seems like a filler.

[AurorusVox]

Mastermind's last post was a week ago. Has he been prodded?

theperson: Why did you say we can suspect you, at the start of your post? What do you think that you did in that post that we should suspect you of?

[EarthIntruder]

I'm sorry that this has taken me forever, y'all, but I became a lot busier than I expected (I'm an RA in a freshman dorm and move-in was Saturday), plus, holy crap do you guys make long posts. I suppose that speaks more to my own lack of concentration than long posts being a bad thing, though, content is a good thing. I should mention that I'm a simple dude, though, and you're more likely to convince me with concise points.

Anyway, I've just finished reading through Day 1, getting started on Day 2 after I grab a bite to eat. I just want to post my understandings of some of the wagons/suspicions from that day to make sure I've got everything straight, along with some of my own observations.

--2k3

A lot of early suspicion was on him for claiming RVS was a bad thing and then a good thing and then just not scumhunting very much. The case on him died down eventually, although a few people pointed out throughout the Day that his scumhunting and posting were still a bit inconsistent. I'm personally a little disappointed to see him off the hook, although my read on him at this point is just null and I don't know everything that's happened Day 2 just yet, so I'm reserving judgement for now.

--zauper/theperson

Part of the reason the case on 2k3 died was because of zauper, whose vote on 2k3 looked WAY opportunistic, and who spent most of his posting space agreeing with other people's cases without really making his own. Personally, after reading through the entire day I can't say I'm entirely sure why zauper wasn't lynched. It seems like by the end of the Day a lot of players were labelling his wagon as an easy lynch - I think I saw theperson himself say that seth (it might have been a different player, like I said, I had some trouble concentrating) was jumping on his wagon because it was easy at one point, something which I think is a bit presumptuous. I also don't like that his vote never changed after replacing in, although his suspicion of 2k3 doesn't seem to have been as strong by the end.

--Valkyrie/seth

Seems like a lot of people were suspicious of Valkyrie for most of the Day because of her focus on Michel and her not scumhunting much, but once she started lurking hard everyone's read on her was pretty much null, which is basically how my suspicion of her played out as well. Seth got a lot of attention as soon as a replaced in for overreacting to suspicion on his slot, constantly making AtE by claiming he was town, and general playstyle. Honestly, it looks to me like his lynch came down to a policy lynch more than anything else, because (as his flip and the fact that he said this was his first game showed) AtE and overreacting happens just as often with a townie that's new as it does with scum. I know that deadline helped, but the turnaround onto him was pretty quick, which leads me to believe his wagon was scummy scum scummy.

And a couple of things I've noticed:

--Bazz

This post. I am really, very not convinced by the reasoning behind the vote change in it. A lot of the theorizing as to seth's thought process behind not reading Valk's game is based on total conjecture, and it seems pretty obvious to me based on his play (and his flip, derp) that seth was just kind of a jerk and not very dedicated to the game, and was just lazy.

--AVox

Dunno whether it's a scumtell, necessarily, but I did notice that his vote tended to jump around quite a lot. I can see both town (putting pressure on as many people as possible to get questions answered) and scum (jumping around until a wagon on someone sticks or until deadline when one has to) motivations behind this - my overall read on him is null.

--Akira

Looks to me to be a bit inconsistent with his voting and thought process as well. I'm very unsure about him, he sort of faded into the background for me with all of the other things going on Day 1, but I think he's someone that deserves a bit more attention Day 2, and someone I'm going to look at a bit more closely.

[AurorusVox]

Hello again EarthIntruder,

- You've not commented on Guybrush at all. Was this an oversight?
- Do you realise that you're at L-2 with at least one other person saying that they'll probably vote for you?

[Guybrush]

@Earth

I don't think there's time for what you had in mind.
I wanted to give you a chance to defend yourself (your slot) before voting for you.
But we're dangerously low on time, and it seems you can't take a hint.

So please, claim & defend. Since you're now at L-1 (universal point where it's good time to do the talking).

Vote: EarthIntruder

*I would love if we could end the day closest to the deadline possible. I'd still like to post my Pair analysis. I'm working on it as we speak. I know the momentum is now gone, but still - it could help town in the future.

Vote: EarthIntruder

[EarthIntruder]

Well, shit. Didn't realize how little time there was actually left.

No, I haven't commented on Guybrush - he seemed pretty town to me from what I'd read so far, so I didn't think it was worth saying anything.

I haven't read the entirety of the case on me yet, so I'll do that right now and get to defending myself stat.

[Guybrush]

Could you just claim before that?
Just a simple one line claim:

I'm XXX with night choices YYY (if any) and results ZZZ (if any)

And then you continue with your read\defense\claim explanation.

[EarthIntruder]

Can do. I claim VT. I know that's not exactly helping my defense right now, but I'd ask everyone to please let me catch up a bit more before someone drops a hammer. I promise I can be around plenty today and tomorrow, and Day 2 looks a bit shorter than day 1 so I'll be ready soon.

[EarthIntruder]

All right, so I'm not exactly sure how this wagon built on omnino/me so fast considering there's been, what, one vote all day up until this wagon formed? Nobody thinks that scummy at all?

Only positive from the results is that whatever power role this town has is still out there doing it's thing .

This is honestly the one thing I could find of omnino's that screams scummy to me. That was a terrible move on my predecessor's part. But, he explained himself here:

More likely it's the fact I forgot more than one power role can happen in these newb games .

One plus point [as I mentioned] is that Scum never hit a power role

It looks to me like omnino was just confused and didn't fully understand how the setup worked.

In response to AVox's questions for me as to my reads on Akira/mastermind and Bazz/Hindu:

Mastermind is my choice for second scummiest at the moment. His case on Guybrush is not strong and seems to have come out of nowhere, and he hasn't posted much since then, and as I stated before, Akira's voting and reasoning struck me as inconsistent. As for Bazz/Hindu, I don't like Bazz's switch onto the seth wagon for reasoning that I mentioned before, but much of his posting I also found very pro-town, Hindu I admit I've only skimmed so far because HOLY CRAP I didn't realize how close the deadline was, but looks to be putting in quite a lot of effort. I don't trust the Bazz/Hindu slot 100%, but it's waaay low on my scumlist.

Honestly, I think the most likely scum is zauper/theperson. He's been coasting by this entire game. His last post was a vote on me that he pre-empted with an admission that it was scummy (which besides being a pet peeve of mine is also a scumtell in my eyes) after two? Three pages of no content? He hasn't scumhunted much. He's been on everyone periphery as scummy and I don't understand why he's been let off the hook.

Vote: theperson

One other thing to note: I don't think speculating scumteams is going to help us right now. It just brings too many hypotheticals into arguments at this point when we haven't lynched a single scum yet, and it's confusing.

Still gonna be around and reading for a while.

[AurorusVox]

All right, so I'm not exactly sure how this wagon built on omnino/me so fast considering there's been, what, one vote all day up until this wagon formed? Nobody thinks that scummy at all?

Considering we're less than 24 hours from the deadline, I don't think its strange or scummy that the votes have come so quickly. Also, I don't think they've come out of nowhere (all three votes on you had been prefaced with some form of already-established suspicion or scumhunting). I read this as scum trying to discredit their wagon.

Regarding the claim of VT;
If Omnino had been a PR, I might have found it easier to believe his "one PR" slip was innocent; i.e. I could have believed that he'd assumed he was the only PR, forgetting that there might be another. But for a VT to say something like that seems very odd.

Regarding the Akira/Bazz question;
This was actually GB's question, so I'll let him respond first. I have my theory on it that I'll share before the day is out.

[Guybrush]

I

asked

theperson

to comment Akira and Hindu.
Earth thinks that

Aurorus

asked

him

to comment Akira and Hindu.
Fun times.

OK, so Earth's "defense" of omnino can be summed up in one line "I don't find him scummy, other than the slip thing".
It makes me rethink the whole case on omnino. Not.
Could you try harder, Earth?
Check all the points made against omnino, and comment them if you disagree.

[EarthIntruder]

But what you can do is give me your reads on both Akira/Mastermind, and ooBAZZoo/Hinduragi in particular (since Omnino didn’t mention Bazz/Hindu much at all, I’d be interested for your take on him the most).

[EarthIntruder]

Considering we're less than 24 hours from the deadline, I don't think its strange or scummy that the votes have come so quickly. Also, I don't think they've come out of nowhere (all three votes on you had been prefaced with some form of already-established suspicion or scumhunting). I read this as scum trying to discredit their wagon.

You don't find theperson's vote on me opportunistic at all, especially considering his actions (or, you know, lack thereof) throughout the rest of the Day?