Newbie 982 - Shadows of Death, Game Over!

[AurorusVox]

2k3

Wow, that was a surprising NK.
@AV: On the post where I took my vote off of zauper/theperson, I was going to vote seth, BUT because about three people made a post including an L-1 vote for seth, so I changed it to an FOS. I honestly wanted to give seth a chance to answer the questions and I would not have had any problems putting the hammer down either.

- Why did you find it surprising?
- Okay, that makes sense. Only one person can vote when you get to L-1.
- Do you still find theperson FoSworthy?

As to your question, any theorising is best left in your head. Look what happened with me when I posted ideas. I quickly became the top of some peoples list and now I'm under very tight radar. I've never seen talking about the NK after it happens except for the usual 'I'm shocked' type comments.

Ha, I'm not going to not do something just because it draws attention to myself; that's being uber-defensive before you've even said anything. Guybrush's reasons (below) are the same reason that I am wary of discussing theorising NKs, and its for those reasons that I'll keep it to a minimum.

Guybrush

@AV
I notice it (I'm not blind), but I try to ignore it.

Lol, that bit was mostly meant for Omnino because I didn't know if he was aware of what he was suggesting.

Both regarding speaking out loud, and arguing in my head.
Too many WIFOM problems.

Yeah. I think I've said all I'll say about the NK anyway, but I am taking it into consideration with my reads atm. But WIFOM is a bitch.

omnino

Am I reading too much into you being so sure that there's one power role? Only way to know that is for there to be a double-goon scumteam. Early slip here?

Suppose it could look like tha, actually. More likely it's the fact I forgot more than one power role can happen in these newb games .

And I suppose we have to take your word for it. This is one of those things that isn't enough to warrant a solid suspicion because there's not really any ways to defend against it except saying "trust me" or "I'm telling the truth", but I'll be keeping it in mind in the future.

What are people's opinions on theorising about the NK choices made by the mafia? Productive for town? Helpful to scum?

Leaves me without my top suspect, to be honest. Not entirely happy about it. One plus point [as I mentioned] is that Scum never hit a power role, any townie death is helpful to scum as it draws them closer to victory.

As a little sidenote, I wasn't really asking what people thought of the NK, I was asking what people thought about talking about the NK.

- Omnino is a tough one because he didn't seem convinced that seth was the best lynch, but that means that if he had hammered he would have not had to take responsibility for the mislynch ("I only hammered to avoid no lynch").

A fair point about the Lynch issue. You could say that with that excuse available, I would've been foolish not to hammer and get myself on the BW [as scum].

Hmm. There were three other people who had expressed a suspicion of Seth. Your "deadline policy hammer" wasn't really necessary, so it's a risk free thing to say; moreover, you wouldn't have been expected to act until the deadline. So you would have been foolish to hammer and get yourself on the BW (before Akira, 2k3 or theperson), because you'd already expressed that you wouldn't hammer until deadline.

- 2k3's preference for the Valk/Seth lynch was all over the place during the latter half of D1 - but he never voted for him. He suggested lynching him for inactivity, then said it was a throwaway comment to get conversation going, then he said he didn't want to lynch him, then he said he did want to...

Looks fairly typical behavior for uncertain town, when put down like that. 2k3 comes off as the kind of player I'd be expecting that from; but we could never be certain about that.

Does your assessment cover the entirety of his play?

- theperson also didn't hammer despite having suspicions. With the NK, though, I'm trying to figure out if he was a cautious townie or a cautious scum, and am leaning to the former.

If you're looking to pick a scum candidate out of us three, I'd pick theperson. 2k3 comes off as more confused, but being suspiscious and unwilling to lynch is IMO worthy of closer attention than 2k3's confusion.

My read of you three is affected by considerations of the NK, which is WIFOM heavy and as an extent, not really all that stable. I'll reassess my reads when there's been a bit more posting going on.

[2003041]

@AV:
1) Well, it's surprising to me because Michel was an IC. It just makes it seem like someone knows what they're doing on the mafia side, leading me to believe one of the SE's are part of the mafia. I could be entirely wrong, but I have that kind of a hunch.
2) Right now, I just need to go back a re-read everything from Day 1 and just re-assess everything that went on. To answer your question, I say yes, but everyone to me right now is a suspect. Right now I have to say omnino is acting weird at this point, but I want to re-read before I actually start pointing fingers.

Are just the three of us your only suspicions, or do you think anyone else could be part of it?

[AurorusVox]

@AV:
1) Well, it's surprising to me because Michel was an IC. It just makes it seem like someone knows what they're doing on the mafia side, leading me to believe one of the SE's are part of the mafia. I could be entirely wrong, but I have that kind of a hunch.

Your argument is that the mafia must have an SE in it because they thought to kill off an IC, yet you yourself are capable of speculating that the NK was due to Michel's IC status? I think you've just proved the bad logic in your case that me or Guybrush are mafia (i.e. you, a non-SE, could think to kill off Michel; so why should only SE's be suspect for the NK choice?) I mean, I have a strong townread on Guybrush so it would take an immense case or an immense slip to make me believe in your suggestion...

2) Right now, I just need to go back a re-read everything from Day 1 and just re-assess everything that went on. To answer your question, I say yes, but everyone to me right now is a suspect. Right now I have to say omnino is acting weird at this point, but I want to re-read before I actually start pointing fingers.

Are just the three of us your only suspicions, or do you think anyone else could be part of it?

I believe that

at least

one of those three stated (2k3, Omnino, theperson) is mafia. If there is only one mafia off-wagon, then of those on the wagon, I'd have to suspect Akira, partly by process of elimination, because as I've said above, I have a strong townread on Guybrush, and I've not seen much suspicious from ooBAZZoo; but Akira has been a tough one to read either town or scum consistently. I'm keeping my eyes open on those three, but at the moment my focus is (clearly) on the those who were off-wagon.

[theperson]

@AV: If I had hammered a few days before deadline, wouldn't I basically be a guaranteed lynch the next day? I was a close #2 suspect, hammering just makes me look like desperate scum. If it came down to deadline, I would have been happy to vote him, but as I wasn't certain that he was scum, I didn't want to risk 2 mislynches. Are you saying you wouldn't find the hammer suspicious if it had happened?

@omnino: How do you know there IS a power role? What about the setup:

1 Mafia roleblocker, 1 Mafia goon, 7 vanilla townies?

Also,

If you're looking to pick a scum candidate out of us three, I'd pick theperson. 2k3 comes off as more confused, but being suspiscious and unwilling to lynch is IMO worthy of closer attention than 2k3's confusion.

Possible omnino-2k3 scumteam? 2k3 was also suspicious and unwilling to lynch, but he was also inconsistent. Can you explain where you got that he seemed "confused"? I was getting more of an inconsistency feel from him.

In my first game as mafia, I did basically the same thing: I said I thought my scumbuddy was noob town. It could be just that omnino suspects me more, but it's the way he said it that made me suspicious.

[AurorusVox]

@AV: If I had hammered a few days before deadline, wouldn't I basically be a guaranteed lynch the next day? I was a close #2 suspect, hammering just makes me look like desperate scum. If it came down to deadline, I would have been happy to vote him, but as I wasn't certain that he was scum, I didn't want to risk 2 mislynches. Are you saying you wouldn't find the hammer suspicious if it had happened?

I'm saying exactly that. Sure I'd have looked into it, but you wouldn't be guaranteed the lynch today; Akira hammered, and we're not straight out calling for his blood right from the outset. I'd have hammered him. I think most people would have hammered him. A hammer vote on someone that its almost unanimously agreed is scummy isn't a scumtell. But you being worried that you might appear scummy for voting for the person who you claimed was your #1 suspect is suspicious. You had reasons to vote for him; it wouldn't have looked desperate.

Possible omnino-2k3 scumteam?

I wondered this as well. Normally I'd say it's unlikely that there'd be no scum whatsoever on the mislynch, but with the explosion of scumminess that was seth, it's not impossible.

[theperson]

I understand that Akira's hammer wasn't scummy, at least in my opinion. However, I was at L-2 and the other candidate to be lynched. It was still quite possible that I was going to be lynched (or at least it seemed so to me) so that would have been extremely scummy to hammer someone, that by doing so avoids your lynch that day.

[2003041]

Your argument is that the mafia must have an SE in it because they thought to kill off an IC, yet you yourself are capable of speculating that the NK was due to Michel's IC status? I think you've just proved the bad logic in your case that me or Guybrush are mafia (i.e. you, a non-SE, could think to kill off Michel; so why should only SE's be suspect for the NK choice?) I mean, I have a strong townread on Guybrush so it would take an immense case or an immense slip to make me believe in your suggestion...

The only reason I have a hunch about this is because the last game I was in I was scum with a very experienced player. He was able to swindle everyone into believing he was town and he knew just the people to kill at the right time. I can only think that one is an SE based by that. I never said 'one is definitely an SE', I'm only thinking it's possible because of that game. Yes, it's bad logic but I wanna look into it some more.
I know you don't have to FOS evry person here, but don't you think there is even the slightest chance that GB COULD be scum, even with your townread on him?

[Guybrush]

@2003

Do you even know who are the SE players in this game?

[omnino]

@omnino: How do you know there IS a power role? What about the setup:

1 Mafia roleblocker, 1 Mafia goon, 7 vanilla townies?

Also,

If you're looking to pick a scum candidate out of us three, I'd pick theperson. 2k3 comes off as more confused, but being suspicious and unwilling to lynch is IMO worthy of closer attention than 2k3's confusion.

Possible omnino-2k3 scumteam? 2k3 was also suspicious and unwilling to lynch, but he was also inconsistent. Can you explain where you got that he seemed "confused"? I was getting more of an inconsistency feel from him.

In my first game as mafia, I did basically the same thing: I said I thought my scumbuddy was noob town. It could be just that omnino suspects me more, but it's the way he said it that made me suspicious.

So we're actually suspecting me by

YOUR

meta? Nice! I like that logic. I suspect you because I farted this morning and it didn't smell bad - suspicious, non? Samey-same.

I've never played a game with a base full of VT's, and if I had I would have remembered how insanely unfair and nigh on unwinnable it would be. Also you're suspecting me on the basis of 'knowing' about power roles. Scum wouldn't know about that, they'd only know about themselves - so really this case [as much as my mentioning one power role looks weird] is about as water tight as a buggered sieve

Also;

@AV: If I had hammered a few days before deadline, wouldn't I basically be a guaranteed lynch the next day? I was a close #2 suspect, hammering just makes me look like desperate scum. If it came down to deadline, I would have been happy to vote him, but as I wasn't certain that he was scum, I didn't want to risk 2 mislynches. Are you saying you wouldn't find the hammer suspicious if it had happened?

Massive

FOS

. You didn’t want to hammer on your top suspect because you were worried you’d be top suspect on the second day? Only reason for this would be if you believed your top suspect to be a townie, and if you believed that – why suspect him in the first place?

Possible omnino-2k3 scumteam?

I wondered this as well. Normally I'd say it's unlikely that there'd be no scum whatsoever on the mislynch, but with the explosion of scumminess that was seth, it's not impossible.

.

Am I reading too much into you being so sure that there's one power role? Only way to know that is for there to be a double-goon scumteam. Early slip here?

Suppose it could look like that, actually. More likely it's the fact I forgot more than one power role can happen in these newb games .

And I suppose we have to take your word for it. This is one of those things that isn't enough to warrant a solid suspicion because there's not really any ways to defend against it except saying "trust me" or "I'm telling the truth", but I'll be keeping it in mind in the future.

ThePerson might buy this, but I don't think you do, you’ve been pretty logical so far AV. Fair enough to question my post where I mentioned power role

being safe but to actually suspect that I am scum with knowledge of what power roles are active in the game, and start building teams off of that? Utter tripe.

Scum don’t know jack about power roles until they hit them.

What are people's opinions on theorising about the NK choices made by the mafia? Productive for town? Helpful to scum?

Leaves me without my top suspect, to be honest. Not entirely happy about it. One plus point [as I mentioned] is that Scum never hit a power role, any townie death is helpful to scum as it draws them closer to victory.

As a little sidenote, I wasn't really asking what people thought of the NK, I was asking what people thought about talking about the NK.

Woops. Misread. Don't think it hurts, tbh and not discussing the nightkill would be foolish since it is one of only two definite answers we have in the game.

- 2k3's preference for the Valk/Seth lynch was all over the place during the latter half of D1 - but he never voted for him. He suggested lynching him for inactivity, then said it was a throwaway comment to get conversation going, then he said he didn't want to lynch him, then he said he did want to...

Looks fairly typical behavior for uncertain town, when put down like that. 2k3 comes off as the kind of player I'd be expecting that from; but we could never be certain about that.

Does your assessment cover the entirety of his play?

No, actually. It covers your general round up – I’ll get a round up on 2k3’s general play on an ISO at some point either today or tomorrow.

[AurorusVox]

Scum don’t know jack about power roles until they hit them.

Not true at all.

If there is a mafia role-blocker, there is either TWO or NO power roles. If there are TWO GOONS, that means there is only ONE power role. So when you suggested that there was ONE power role, that had a twang of scum, because scum are the only people who would know, for certain, during D2, that there is only one power role. Like I said, it's not a reason for a vote, but it's something suspicious that could have been a slip.

Tell me again how I'm being illogical


---

2k3; I'm not saying that it's impossible that Guybrush is mafia. But my town read is very strong for him, and, as I've said, it would take some convincing for me to see him as scum.

[AurorusVox]

EBWOP: And my interest in a potential Omnino-2k3 scumteam was based on you defending him as being confused rather than inconsistent, not to do with your PR comment.

[omnino]

That was more of a take on your analysis than my take on 2k3, tbh.

As for the Scum roles informing on Power roles, I'll be pleading ignorance on that one, although it rings a bell now it's been mentioend, it was completely drawing a blank earlier.

[Akira]

Okay I'm back. My V/LA ended up lasting much more than planned, so sorry about that.

I must say that I didn't expect that NK either. If seth hadn't been lynched, it would have made us even more suspicious of seth, because he was Michel's top suspect. But seth was lynched, so this is most likely a deep WIFOM situation. Michel's second suspect was 2k3, and unlike most people, he didn't suspect theperson much at all.
So, if we do not consider even the slightest form of WIFOM, then 2k3 becomes the top lynch and theperson the least probable. But if instead we do consider WIFOM, then it's the other way around.The 3rd possibility could be that this is an attempt to make us concentrate on these two players while forgetting who might actually be the real scumpair.
In conclusion this NK is pretty bad for us, because it leaves us with these 3 very different possibilities.

I also can't believe seth acted so scummy. He really dug his own grave by being so stubborn.

@everyone:

Who did you expect to be night-killed? I guess you don't have to answer if you don't feel comfortable with it, I just thought it was a good way to get a read on people.

I'm doing my reread now on everyone, so expect a long dossier in my next post.

[AurorusVox]

I think saying who we expected to be night killed is dangerous because it gives the mafia too much wifom to play around with. Discussing the NK itself is treading the border, which is why I've been reluctant to discuss it too much so far.

But now that you've brought it up, I may as well say that I had pretty much the same assessment of the NK as you. But because we can't tell if it was WIFOM or not, it makes it very difficult to make any decisive reads from it (Guybrush has also identified this problem).

[Akira]

@Aurorus: I guess you're right, didn't think about that.

Time for my re-read on everyone. I'll be using a scale where 0 means neutral, green numbers (from 1 to 10) mean townie-ness and red numbers mean scumminess.

2k3 -

During the Aurorus versus 2k3 confrontation, I was pretty unsure who to suspect, if one of the two was scum. I found myself leaning towards 2k3 (as a suspect), but then I remembered the Asperger's syndrome and how Aurorus is an experienced player. Right now I'm not sure what to think of him because of the WIFOM situation between him and theperson. If he is scum, then I kinda understand his NK. He doesn't look like someone who would delve into extremely deep WIFOMs, but at the same time he doesn't look like someone who would do the most obvious thing.

2 scum

Aurorus -

Aurorus has been hard to judge. He does a lot of good scumhunting and contributes to the discussion a lot, yet the Michel NK is something I see him doing more than others. I see him using the kill to drive attention to 2k3 and theperson while saving himself. But it's only a gut instinct. I'm not sure what to think here so for now I'll keep it at

0 neutral

. But here are some questions for you: During the final part of Day 1, your second suspect was theperson. Now that seth has turned out as town, is your top suspect now theperson? Or has this mislynch messed up your read on him? Also, what's your read on Guybrush?

omnino -

Let me start by saying that your response to theperson's meta suspicion is worthy of being on the wiki's quote page. Anyway, although LoakaMossi seemed suspicious to me, he still only posted twice, so I can't base my judgement on you with his posts as much as I can with your posts. You're giving me the town vibe, simply because you're patient with your questions and you give good reasons to suspect people. That includes your Michel read, even though it didn't turn out as expected. Also, if you are scum (and, again, we don't consider Wifom), then it doesn't make that much sense to NK someone with good enough reasons to be lynched. But WIFOM is something I think you would use, given your experience, so I'll keep my town-tell on you low just in case.

2 town

I've decided to wait a bit for the other reads.

Also, what's up with the following set-up:

1 Mafia Goon
1 Mafia Roleblocker
7 Vanilla Townies

With no power roles, what's the point of there being a roleblocker?

[Akira]

Oh wait, now I get it... Never mind...

[Guybrush]

Also, what's your read on Guybrush?

He stated that he has a strong town-read on me on three occasions during this day only.
Do you really think something has changed since 12:46 pm, or are you just not paying attention and filling your time?

Another thing I didn't like - your previous analysis of 3 players is 50% based on a night choice.

Why I personally don't analyze night choices that much:

During day - you KNOW who did what. If you want to do any action, you have to stand behind your nick. Analyzing is easier.
During night - you have no idea who did what. Scum can do anything without being connected to their nicks and personalities.
-So at least during day, I can judge whether person X did action Y because of noobiness or because of being scum.
-During night I only have the final information. You could have exp people, you could have dumb people -> too many unknown variables.

And why would it be convenient for scum to make 50% of a case based on night choices:

1. You don't directly accuse and are less likely to engage in discussion
2. But still appear to scumhunt

So could you explain to me why are you giving that much importance to night choices?
Not to mention that there are

2 scums

, so any assumptions you made about "2003 would or wouldn't do this", or "omnino wouldn't go after Michel" are pretty much useless since 1 scum could influence the other to do things his way.
Wouldn't you agree that if Aurorus is scum, and his partner is omnino or 2003, that Aurorus would be the one who decides whom to kill?
Leaving that part of your analysis on 2003 and omnino pretty useless?

[Guybrush]

I think saying who we expected to be night killed is dangerous because it gives the mafia too much wifom to play around with.

Could you at least tell me did you expect yourself to get NK-ed?
And how certain were you about it?
And feel free not to answer, I'll understand.

[AurorusVox]

Akira, I've tried to answer your questions, but expanded on their premises a little to offer a brief read on each of the players;

tl;dr version:

- NK pushes 2k3 above theperson in my scumlist.
- Guybrush is very townie.

----

2k3

One of the reasons that I put theperson as my second favourite lynch was because I didn't want to split my energy between 2k3 and seth (as I've mentioned before, I thought they were a scumpair and so decided to try to get only one of them lynched), which is to say that seth and 2k3 were somewhat interchangeable at the top of my scumlist. Due to the NK (which could have been motivated by Michel's suspicion of 2k3), due to 2k3's lack of hammering, due to his inconsistencies and his shaky play style, and due to his wonky logic today, I have more reasons to be suspicious of 2k3 than I do of any other player. However, some my unease with 2k3 could simply be down to his playstyle; but there's only so far that I can use that as an excuse for scumminess, so I'd say that, right now, he's my top suspect.

omnino

I saw little reason to suspect omnino in most of D1, but his comments so far in early D2 have left me feeling uncomfortable, as did the way he (slightly) defended 2k3. His later play in D1 was a balance of good arguments against Michel (not scummy) and some things that Michel thought was odd (the L-1 on the V/LA zauper in particular - I don't think it was as scummy as Michel thought, but I can see his case). Also, his "willingness to policy lynch" sits a little uncomfortably with me, because it was a risk free move. However, I don't have anything too solid to warrant a vote on him. He's probably tied second in my scumlist, but more by default than anything.

Akira

If there was any scum on the wagon, then I'd say that it had to be Akira, partly by process of elimination, and partly by some actions he's undertaken. Throughout D1 my read on Akira kept switching from scummy to townie, which could be indicative of scum with some good defensive play, or town with some suspect offensive play. The hammer vote in and of itself wasn't scummy, but some of his voting behaviour has seemed a little off (I believe Michel found the zauper vote out of the blue, and the pre-V/LA vote a bit hard to swallow). Also, he seemed to be reluctant to vote for seth despite saying that he thought seth was scum, which could be scum trying to avoid being the hammer vote. He's tied second, but again, more by default than anything.

theperson

My read on theperson is made more complicated by his not hammering and his stated reasons for not hammering (scummy) and the NK choice (townie points for theperson, but could be WIFOM {which is to say, why would theperson kill someone who was sure he was townie?}). Another factor to consider is that he has claimed VT; if he is a believably-claimed VT, then it might be strange that he wasn't NK'd (i.e. the reason he wasn't targeted could be because he is, in fact, the mafia). I also wonder about some of Zauper's play, but taking Michel's read on him (and the NK of Michel) into account, he's not my favoured lynch today. I think he is more likely town than 2k3, and slightly more likely than omnino. If he is scummy "today", I would think that the NK was WIFOM and he'd move up my list. *(see below)

ooBAZZoo

If ooBAZZoo were scum he'd have had no reason to get on what he'd have known was a townie mislynch (everyone had expressed their suspicions of seth by the time he put him at L-1). I've also not seen much to give me reason to suspect BAZZ atm, though my town read on him isn't as strong as that on Guybrush (that is to say, his play has been similar to Guybrush's but hasn't been as heavily pro-town). Apart from the early issue I had with him, I've not seen much to give me a reason to think that BAZZ is scum.

Guybrush

My read on Guybrush is strongly townie. He's been asking pertinent questions, hasn't been acting scummily, has had good reasoning, etc, etc, everything you'd expect from a townie player. If I had to take issue with anything, I'd say that just looking at the timing of his vote on seth, it could be considered scum trying to give a different wagon velocity (which would assume a Guybrush/theperson scumteam) - in fact, if Guybrush is scum, I am certain that theperson would be his scumbuddy. But considering that I currently think theperson is townie, even that single chink of potential scumminess (it's very small anyway) becomes negligible. If he's scum, he's playing a blindingly good game.


*NINJA EDIT: Guybrush makes a good point about

not

using analysis of NKs for scumhunting. I agree that creating cases out of the NK is a bad idea, but I do think that you can take it into consideration when addressing existing cases/concerns. For example, I make no bones about the fact that theperson has sidled down my scumlist because I don't think killing Michel would have been a smart choice for a scumteam including him in it to make. However, because of the potential for WIFOM, I am also fully aware that I may have to discard this idea entirely, and as the day goes on it will become less important in my read.


Anyway ---

I made a neat table instead of a conclusion...(I told you I liked tables and spreadsheets /embarrassed)

Scumlist	Read	Extra notes
2k3	Somewhat scum	Could be newb-town
Akira / Omnino	Neutral, leaning scum	Based on reads of other players
theperson	Neutral, leaning town	Assuming non-WIFOM NK
ooBAZZoo	Somewhat town	Could be good scum
Guybrush	Strong town	Could be excellent scum

[AurorusVox]

I thought I'd answer Guybrush in a separate post...

I'm not really sure how wise it is to debate potential NK's at all. I understand the cut and thrust of your question, and I'll say that I have a theory as to why neither you nor myself were NK'd (it's the same theory for us both). I don't think it's a good idea to go into it any more than that :\

[Guybrush]

@AV

Simple "I thought I would get killed. I was 75% sure." would suffice. I didn't want to discuss it in details. But OK, no need to answer it then.
I heard arguments that giving your full read on

all players

is also counter-productive, since you're giving too much information to scum.
Do you agree?

[AurorusVox]

I agree that there are certain dangers related to giving full reads on all players, but I believe that these dangers can be avoided if you're careful. I think its safest to make more detailed points on all players at the start of a day, because reads are liable to change over the course of the day, and so whilst you tell scum where your mind is at, you're not telling them where it's going to be. I also think some comments are easier for scum to manipulate and act upon, and would avoid posting those kinds of comments ("x needs to vote less sporadically", "y needs to stop tunnelling") because they give mafia a (meta) shortcut to appearing townie.

[Akira]

Also, what's your read on Guybrush?

He stated that he has a strong town-read on me on three occasions during this day only.

1

) Do you really think something has changed since 12:46 pm, or are you just not paying attention and filling your time?

Another thing I didn't like - your previous analysis of 3 players is 50% based on a night choice.

Why I personally don't analyze night choices that much:

During day - you KNOW who did what. If you want to do any action, you have to stand behind your nick. Analyzing is easier.
During night - you have no idea who did what. Scum can do anything without being connected to their nicks and personalities.
-So at least during day, I can judge whether person X did action Y because of noobiness or because of being scum.
-During night I only have the final information. You could have exp people, you could have dumb people -> too many unknown variables.

And why would it be convenient for scum to make 50% of a case based on night choices:

1. You don't directly accuse and are less likely to engage in discussion
2. But still appear to scumhunt

2

) So could you explain to me why are you giving that much importance to night choices?
Not to mention that there are

2 scums

, so any assumptions you made about "2003 would or wouldn't do this", or "omnino wouldn't go after Michel" are pretty much useless since 1 scum could influence the other to do things his way.

3

) Wouldn't you agree that if Aurorus is scum, and his partner is omnino or 2003, that Aurorus would be the one who decides whom to kill?
Leaving that part of your analysis on 2003 and omnino pretty useless?

1

) I apologize. I wrote my questions regarding theperson and seth and ended up throwing that in too, without even checking if it had been already answered even once. I decided to trust my memory, which ended up being a bad idea. I added the question out of pure "curiosity", you could say.

2

) I agree with what you're saying. I just thought that there were some people who, regardless of who their scumbuddy is, would or wouldn't have gone after Michel.

3

) Yes, but that's considering that there is at least an SE in the scumpair. For all we know there could be two newbies in the scumpair, just like there could be the two SEs. Are you suggesting I should discard these ideas?

[ooBAZZoo]

Got some bad news guys, I'm gonna have to be replaced.
My family has booked a last minute holiday for two weeks (to Gran Canaria), and I'm pretty sure I'll be ultra busy once I get back too. I sent a PM to the mod to let them know. I know it's a pain in the ass for players to be constantly being replaced, especially now it's D2, so a massive apology for this. It's a shame for me too, because I was really enjoying my first ever mafia game.
I may well be in some other games once I'm free again, so hope to see you around.

Sorry again, ooBAZZoo x

[theperson]

That's OK ooBAZZoo, I had a game (My first one, newbie 939) where all slots except one got replaced, and some got replaced twice. Although I can imagine it feels really bad to be replaced, especially considering how committed you were to this game. I have to say you played great for your first game.

This day alone has had more NK speculation than I've ever seen...Mostly from Akira. I'm not sure why he insists on it, but as guybrush said 50% of his arguments were centered around the NK, which you can never really predict the reasons behind.