Open 239 - C9++

[nhammen]

If both anti-town parties know each other, they can at the very least temporarily truce. This would be beneficial for Ythill-SK in the terms that Ythill-SK cannot be betrayed easily for two reasons: the first being that there would have to be a cooperative Vig for an NK to take place on Ythill, the second being that scum would not be able to out Ythill-SK without losing at least one player, in this hypothetical instance NS.

This is the third (and most important) thing that bothered me about #58, and it was the one I mentioned vaguely and that she denied. It looks very much like Maf-scum offering to make a deal with Ythill-SK. Look at how she's selling the idea.

So, the problem I have here, is that for this to be occurring, Mafuyu would have to be the dumbest scum player ever, and I am really not seeing that. But what he/she is accusing you of would mean you would have to be the dumbest SK ever (actually strike that; I have seen some really bad SK play) and I'm not seeing that either. So, I guess ITT Mafuyu and Ythill vastly underestimate each others' intelligence.

See, this is what I thought was being said; I really need to learn discernment as to when to trust myself and not.

Your post before Ythill's explanation did not contain any mention of this... And you defend yourself for this problem before even being attacked for it. How nice.

Not like lynching scum is a bad idea (it is a good idea), but shouldn't we hit the SK first (if we can) because he has the potential to be NP-untouchable. (Barring we don't have multiple killing roles hit him.)

!!
UNVOTE: NS
VOTE: Andrius

lol at Ythill #97
Our reads are so different from each other it isn't even funny.

[Ythill]

So, I guess ITT Mafuyu and Ythill vastly underestimate each others' intelligence.

I don't think Maf is dumb. And she's not the worst scum player I've seen, but she's close. I can definately read what she said as an innuendo fail.

Our reads are so different from each other it isn't even funny.

Perhaps a point in your favor. We'll see how it plays out. Andrius' opinion about mafia/SK hunting is wrong, but it seemed honest enough. How come you're voting the guy who made a bad theory argument instead of the girl who was putting it into practice? And how come you were subtly doing the same thing?

[nhammen]

I am voting Andrius because his bad theory has scum motivation that does not require him to be failscum. I am not voting mafuyu because I can't see any scum player actually trying to intentionally breadcrum scum as you people are accusing him/her of. I have no idea what same thing I was subtly doing. Please explain that last question.

[Andrius]

Ythill:
That's really funny though, because I totally wigged out. lol
Why is nham scum? [sarcasm]Besides for voting prob-town Andrius. lol [/sarcasm] Is it for his lack of content? He's null ATM for me. Needs to post more.

Fate:
I'm surprised at how tame you are.

nhammen/Ythill:
Soooo... why am I "wrong" in regards to mafia/SK hunting? I'm a tad confused because all nhammed said was "!!", and I can't really learn from that so.

[nhammen]

My !! was because this is one of those textbook standard scumtells. If someone wants people to exclusively focus on scum A over scum B, they are more likely to be scum B. In this instance, scum A is SK and scum B is mafia. Although, it is a fairly weak tell, it is stronger than the reason I voted NS.

[Andrius]

My !! was because this is one of those textbook standard scumtells. If someone wants people to exclusively focus on scum A over scum B, they are more likely to be scum B. In this instance, scum A is SK and scum B is mafia. Although, it is a fairly weak tell, it is stronger than the reason I voted NS.

Ok, I see where you're coming from and it makes sense. I've just spent a fair amount of time tinkering with the C9++ setup, and the SK has a crapload of little bonuses that make him- near-unstoppable in the NP. (Lynching, of course, is pretty much the only way to off him.) I know that I'm useless to stop him, and it doesn't take a genius to know he's serious trouble.

Every C9++ setup with a Serial Killer comes with the following "perks" for the SK:

Doc Bypass- every single kill bypasses one Doctor protect
Block Bypass- immune from one Block attempt every Night.

75% of C9++ games with a SK have the following:

Kill Immune- immune from one Kill attempt every Night.

50% of C9++ games with a SK have the following:

Investigation Immune- appears to Cops as Town.

So if we have a SK, he's 75% likely to be unstoppable in the NP- Doc and RB bypass with kill immunity. (This is assuming that there aren't extra Docs and RBs lying around who could band together to stop him- or multiple Vigs.)

It just seems to me that he's a bigger threat, if he can't simply be killed/blocked/investigated by a town PR.

[nhammen]

My !! was because this is one of those textbook standard scumtells. If someone wants people to exclusively focus on scum A over scum B, they are more likely to be scum B. In this instance, scum A is SK and scum B is mafia. Although, it is a fairly weak tell, it is stronger than the reason I voted NS.

Ok, I see where you're coming from and it makes sense. I've just spent a fair amount of time tinkering with the C9++ setup, and the SK has a crapload of little bonuses that make him- near-unstoppable in the NP. (Lynching, of course, is pretty much the only way to off him.) I know that I'm useless to stop him, and it doesn't take a genius to know he's serious trouble.

Every C9++ setup with a Serial Killer comes with the following "perks" for the SK:

Doc Bypass- every single kill bypasses one Doctor protect
Block Bypass- immune from one Block attempt every Night.

75% of C9++ games with a SK have the following:

Kill Immune- immune from one Kill attempt every Night.

50% of C9++ games with a SK have the following:

Investigation Immune- appears to Cops as Town.

So if we have a SK, he's 75% likely to be unstoppable in the NP- Doc and RB bypass with kill immunity. (This is assuming that there aren't extra Docs and RBs lying around who could band together to stop him- or multiple Vigs.)

It just seems to me that he's a bigger threat, if he can't simply be killed/blocked/investigated by a town PR.

And now I see where you are coming from. Even if your math is off (as I think it is). In fact I'm sure that it is less than 50% investigation immune, and I think it is greater than 75% kill immune. These are just back of the envelope type calculations. I don't put much effort into working out the math of games I play.

But in any case, there is nothing stopping the SK from being taken out by lynching. It can be done on any day. So I don't think we should be seeking one scumgroup over others.

[nhammen]

Also, the explanation completely nullified the tell, so
UNVOTE: Andrius
VOTE: Nobody Special

[Ythill]

I am not voting mafuyu because I can't see any scum player actually trying to intentionally breadcrum scum as you people are accusing him/her of.

Shenanigans. I'm not saying you should have voted her for the reason I gave, especially if you don't agree with it. However, she pointed out things that, if valid, would suggest I'm scum of either flavor, then jumped to the conclusion that I'm a SK. I don't understand why you don't find that suspicious. You voted Andrius for stating the belief but you ignored the fact that Mafuyu was actually doing it.

Please explain that last question.

The set-up speculation in your first post looked like exclusive hunting. Fate was the one who caught it, but I agree with him.

Why is nham scum?

Then? Vote qualification and SK hunting. Now there's the issue of cognitive dissonance as well, but let's see what he says about that.

[Mafuyu]

Shenanigans. I'm not saying you should have voted her for the reason I gave, especially if you don't agree with it. However, she pointed out things that, if valid, would suggest I'm scum of either flavor, then jumped to the conclusion that I'm a SK. I don't understand why you don't find that suspicious. You voted Andrius for stating the belief but you ignored the fact that Mafuyu was actually doing it.

To be fair, if Reck had protected you you would have been protected from a scum or vig kill, as SKs doc-bypass. So, if you are anti-town, and you didn't get vig-targeted, that leaves SK. It was a pretty stupid hypothetical.

[nhammen]

I am not voting mafuyu because I can't see any scum player actually trying to intentionally breadcrum scum as you people are accusing him/her of.

Shenanigans. I'm not saying you should have voted her for the reason I gave, especially if you don't agree with it. However, she pointed out things that, if valid, would suggest I'm scum of either flavor, then jumped to the conclusion that I'm a SK. I don't understand why you don't find that suspicious. You voted Andrius for stating the belief but you ignored the fact that Mafuyu was actually doing it.

Honestly, I don't get any of the logic that Mafuyu used to get to any of the conclusions in the post. I didn't see anything suggesting "scum of either flavor". Maybe Mafuyu had a reason for thinking that it (it being whatever the heck she saw) implied SK over mafia. This is why I have been asking for clarification. A lot of the logic that is being used here makes no freaking sense. Without this informtion, I have no way of knowing if there was justification for her suspicions of Ythill-SK. Although I can see what you are saying. Assuming that her strange tell suggests scum, then saying that Ythill is SK would be an indication of being her scum.

The set-up speculation in your first post looked like exclusive hunting. Fate was the one who caught it, but I agree with him.

What? A) my "set-up speculation" was just me stating what possible explanations there could be. B) When did Fate say anything about my set-up speculation. After my iso of Fate Wait! Fate was saying that to me? Wow... Because Mafuyu said something about a set-up speculation in her post immediately preceding Fate's post, I assumed Fate was referring to Mafuyu. Now I feel dumb. Well this explains one of the cryptic comments I didn't get. But how does my post look like exclusive hunting? In any way at all? Does not compute.

And Mafuyu ninjaed me with an explanation for why she thought SK.

[Ythill]

@Maf:

First, what do night actions have to do with anything? You said that you suspected me for saying there were three mafia, plus the ridiculous context argument (that looked more like deal-making on your part). You never said anything about NKs. Second, even if you had based your conclusion on NK speculation, why couldn't I be a GF in the scenarios you gave?

You are so busted. Again.

@nham:

It's perfectly clear why Mafuyu was suspicious of me. Look at #58. She stated that she thought me saying, "it's nice to know we're dealing with 3 mafia," was a slip. Then she went on to suggest that my jab at NS ("You already know my alignment, silly. Are you pissed that Reck protected me last night?") was Yth-SK trying to make a deal with the mob. Nothing even close to her latest excuse that you have accepted without question. Playing dumb doesn't suit you, I've argued with you enough in GD to know how sharp you are.

Wait! Fate was saying that to me? Wow... Because Mafuyu said something about a set-up speculation in her post immediately preceding Fate's post, I assumed Fate was referring to Mafuyu.

I read it that way at first too but it didn't make sense to me in that context. So I scrolled up to your post and noticed how your speculation devolved into suggestions that a SK was holding his kill and whatnot, like you were reaching for reasons to believe in a second kill that never happened. I'm not positive that's what Fate meant but it made more sense to me that way, and it doesn't really matter because it lead me to the tell no matter what he meant.

[Mafuyu]

Forgive Mafuyu's ignorance, but what does being a godfather have to do with anything? Not making the connection.

[Ythill]

GFs are immune to all NKs.

[Ythill]

But whatever. Explain why you changed your story.

[Ythan]

Mod:

Have those prods gone out?

We only reached two postable game days midnight last night. Ani posted, Unsight is V/LA.

Mafuyu (4): Ythill, Nobody Special, Andrius, AGar
Fate (1): animorpherv1
animorpherv1 (0):
Ythill (1): Mafuyu
nhammen (0):
drmyshottyizsik (1): Fishythefish
Fishythefish (0):
Andrius (0):
Nobody Special (2): Fate, nhammen
Unsight (0):
AGar (0):

not voting (2):
drmyshottyizsik
Unsight

With 11 alive it's 6 to lynch. Deadline is August 12 at 11:59pm EST.

[Andrius]

And now I see where you are coming from. Even if your math is off (as I think it is). In fact I'm sure that it is less than 50% investigation immune, and I think it is greater than 75% kill immune. These are just back of the envelope type calculations. I don't put much effort into working out the math of games I play.

But in any case, there is nothing stopping the SK from being taken out by lynching. It can be done on any day. So I don't think we should be seeking one scumgroup over others.

I'm pretty sure my math is right; I'm in Accounting right now, so. (Only 4 of the 8 anti-town setups have SK, and 3 of those are Kill Immune and 2 are Investigation Immune. The math isn't too hard.)

Of course not. I still think if we had a shot at the SK over the mafia, we should do it, because the mafia can get killed by Vig

and blocked by Doc protections and RB blocks, while the SK *could* be competely immune to most of our NP actions.

*going to look up cognitive dissonance because I feel stupid lol*

To be fair, if Reck had protected you you would have been protected from a scum or vig kill, as SKs doc-bypass. So, if you are anti-town, and you didn't get vig-targeted, that leaves SK. It was a pretty stupid hypothetical.

I hadn't seen that before, but you're assuming that Ythill was targetted by a non-Vig. So according you that (quoted), Ythill must be SK, as an anti-town attack on him (given he was protected) would have failed. (And if he's not SK then that, so.)

@ Ythill: Good thing you said GF is NK-immune. I didn't think he was, but then I checked the sample Role PM listing on page 1, and you're right.

[Unsight]

I apologize for the absence everyone. Yesterday I called the cable company because my internet was down and they got it back up. Two minutes after I get off the phone, it's back down. Repairman is coming out on Wednesday and I'm crossing my fingers the internet stays up until then.

Anyway, I read the whole thread and am caught up.

Mafuyu is scum for this post. That's not speculation from a town perspective, it's scum speculation.

VOTE: Mafuyu

Other things of note, AGar is playing differently than usual--shorter posts, shameless wagoning. It's not consistent with his town or scum meta (from a quick glance through his past games). nhammen easing up on Andrius is bizarre.

@nhammen - How did Andrius' explanation nullify the tell?

[Fate]

I did mean Mafuyu. Mafuyu's recent posts explaining how she determined Ythill was SK (cause he couldnt be scum if he was protected from a kill) ring all sorts of alarms with me.

I mean, I didn't even BEGIN to think about that sort of set-up. Which leads me to believe Ythill insomach as Mafuyu tried to take out Ythill, Ythill was either protected or NK SK, so Mafuyu starts posting against him like he's a SK, etc. etc.

TLDR:
I'LL HAMMER MAFUYU ITS CLAIM TIME.

[Fate]

Shenanigans. I'm not saying you should have voted her for the reason I gave, especially if you don't agree with it. However, she pointed out things that, if valid, would suggest I'm scum of either flavor, then jumped to the conclusion that I'm a SK. I don't understand why you don't find that suspicious. You voted Andrius for stating the belief but you ignored the fact that Mafuyu was actually doing it.

To be fair, if Reck had protected you you would have been protected from a scum or vig kill, as SKs doc-bypass. So, if you are anti-town, and you didn't get vig-targeted, that leaves SK. It was a pretty stupid hypothetical.

^This is the speculation post I was referring to in my last post.

The speculation I was referring to where Ythill thought I was mentioning nham was Mafuyu's initial "CLAIM HOW MANY TS GUIZ" which was terribad no matter how you slice it.

[nhammen]

She stated that she thought me saying, "it's nice to know we're dealing with 3 mafia," was a slip.

Except the only possible slip I can see there would preclude Ythill-SK. Only mafia knows how many mafia there are.

Then she went on to suggest that my jab at NS ("You already know my alignment, silly. Are you pissed that Reck protected me last night?") was Yth-SK trying to make a deal with the mob. Nothing even close to her latest excuse that you have accepted without question.

She said that in the context of there being a slip, it looked like that. Which means that she had already seen a clue for Ythill-SK.

Playing dumb doesn't suit you, I've argued with you enough in GD to know how sharp you are.

Thanks for the complement? Or insult?

Wait! Fate was saying that to me? Wow... Because Mafuyu said something about a set-up speculation in her post immediately preceding Fate's post, I assumed Fate was referring to Mafuyu.

I read it that way at first too but it didn't make sense to me in that context. So I scrolled up to your post and noticed how your speculation devolved into suggestions that a SK was holding his kill and whatnot, like you were reaching for reasons to believe in a second kill that never happened.

Oh, well I was just trying to see what information we could gain about the setup. My first thought was Doc could negate the common one kill implies no SK logic. But then I though of other things that could negate that logic. And apparently missed some.

And now I see where you are coming from. Even if your math is off (as I think it is). In fact I'm sure that it is less than 50% investigation immune, and I think it is greater than 75% kill immune. These are just back of the envelope type calculations. I don't put much effort into working out the math of games I play.

But in any case, there is nothing stopping the SK from being taken out by lynching. It can be done on any day. So I don't think we should be seeking one scumgroup over others.

I'm pretty sure my math is right; I'm in Accounting right now, so. (Only 4 of the 8 anti-town setups have SK, and 3 of those are Kill Immune and 2 are Investigation Immune. The math isn't too hard.)

But the set-ups aren't equally likely.

I hadn't seen that before, but you're assuming that Ythill was targetted by a non-Vig.

Honestly, any vig that targets Ythill on N0 is completely stupid and should never draw a pro-Town power role.

@nhammen - How did Andrius' explanation nullify the tell?

His explanation could have come from a pro-Town perspective just as easily as from a pro-Scum perspective. Even if he did get the math all wrong, his research appeared honest.

[Ythill]

Wow, lotsa ninjas.

I hadn't seen that before, but you're assuming that Ythill was targetted by a non-Vig.

I've been thinking about this. At the begining of D1, the most reasonable assumption seemed to be no-vig, no-SK. Operating under that assumption, I figured that Maf was unlikely to be scum because of me as the hypothetical kill choice, which she's already admitted to. Then she started acting scummy and, like I said, I stumbled on the Reck-protect idea because I still think Mafuyu's scumteam would have been all over me. Ergo, my entertaining the idea of a failed NK is contingient on my belief that Mafuyu is scum. So why is

she

making the assumption?

Seriously, can

anyone

explain a reason other than her being scum?

[Ythill]

Thanks for the complement? Or insult?

Neither. Accusation. And you're doing it again.

The speculation I was referring to where Ythill thought I was mentioning nham was Mafuyu's initial "CLAIM HOW MANY TS GUIZ" which was terribad no matter how you slice it.

Terribad, yes, but what made it seem like SK fishing?

[Andrius]

But the set-ups aren't equally likely.

Forgot about that part. :/ Good point. I might run some numbers and see what the odds are.

Honestly, any vig that targets Ythill on N0 is completely stupid and should never draw a pro-Town power role.

True.

I've been thinking about this. At the begining of D1, the most reasonable assumption seemed to be no-vig, no-SK. Operating under that assumption, I figured that Maf was unlikely to be scum because of me as the hypothetical kill choice, which she's already admitted to. Then she started acting scummy and, like I said, I stumbled on the Reck-protect idea because I still think Mafuyu's scumteam would have been all over me. Ergo, my entertaining the idea of a failed NK is contingient on my belief that Mafuyu is scum. So why is she making the assumption?

Seriously, can anyone explain a reason other than her being scum?

I came into D1 thinking no-Vig, no-SK also. Though things may be different tonight, without a Doc and a full day of info to work off of.
I don't think the mafia would be on you D1 if they tried to off you N0. Its a bad move, just like Vig'ing you N0. Even a newbie would know that's bad play.

I'm going to play around with C9++ for awhile. Get all statistical.

[nhammen]

Thanks for the complement? Or insult?

Neither. Accusation. And you're doing it again.

Hey! That was my attempt at humor! Because your accusation could be viewed to include both an insult and a compliment. See, funny! I think the joke fell flat...