Newbie 982 - Shadows of Death, Game Over!

[omnino]

Well, first off - do you think L-2 was getting him out from under the wood work? Nah? I agree.

Secondly, I find his play to date pretty scummy, and his absence under suspicion even worse, so my vote should be on him anyway. I had been putting it off waiting for Hayl to give news of a prod. replacement, modkill... whatever, but this does not seem forthcoming.

In short, it's about as fruitful as L-2 so far, in that he's not turned up, but if he does turn up because it's L-1, then yeah, it will be a fruitful vote.

[AurorusVox]

Fair point. I'm not sure that the L-1 will prompt him into posting again, but I'd love that to be the case. I'm stubbornly withholding my vote until we get some news of what's going on with Zauper, if he's coming back or whatever too, because I want to assess his responses to my questions, and those of others, before placing my vote (since it will be a lynching vote this time, not a pressure vote, and I want to make sure I put it in the right place). That's why I really hope he doesn't get replaced.

@Mod - Has Zauper been prodded at all?

[Akira]

Well, Aurorus beat me to the argument, but I have to clarify something.
@seth: I would like to know your history of mafia games, if possible. (I don't care what site, just how they ended up and what was your role).
Also, what's your read on Valk? I know this can be a strange question to answer, but I want to know if you see anything else other than poor play. (this is your opinion btw, not mine)

I really feel sorry for whoever gets to replace zauper.
I'm getting the slight feeling that maybe he gave up, seeing himself as the prime candidate.
@Experienced players: is giving up more sign of townie or scum, and is it usually accompanied by a roleclaim?

Mod omnino unvoted.

[AurorusVox]

People can become disinterested - or simply really busy - regardless of their role, so Zauper's recent inactivity out of context is a null-tell. Though you have to take into consideration such things as how much pressure he is under and so forth, and of course it would be suspicious if he wasn't lynched but re-appeared on D2, for example. Someone "giving up" (or going inactive) isn't usually accompanied by a role-claim; as you can see, a few people have been replaced already. However, someone being put at L-1 usually does claim. Of course, he can't claim if he doesn't post. Should he get replaced, his replacement probably will have to claim.

[ooBAZZoo]

Just to let you all know, I'm fairly busy at the mo, and I'm going to be busy for the next day or so too. Maybe not a full vacation, but If I'm absent till tues/weds you know I'm not avoiding questions or anything.

Just a few things I wish to comment on about the past few pages while I have a minute (I havn't had a chance to do a detailed read of anyone):

Regarding Zauper. I have to admit that his L-1 situation has come about because of a little bandwagonning, and he should be given the opportunity to respond to this situation before he is lynched. This being said, I stated clearly why I believed he is the most likely scum player and that I'd maintain my vote untill any developments were made. Since then Zauper has given me no reason to doubt my suspicions, so I stick by my reasons and I stick by my vote.

@Seth - I think you handled the 'self-vote' issue very badly. I've not got much experience of mafia games, but even I know that if you say something like that people are going to jump on it. A simple "sorry, I didn't mean it seriously, only said it through frustration" would have surficed, but instead you became argumentative and defensive. I'm not sure if this signifies anything scummy, or is more a reflection of your personality, but it's definitely made me question your innocence.

Also, I asked you when you joined what your experience of mafia games is, and as far as I can remember you never answered. Akira has now asked again, and although it's not of the highest priority, people don't like being ignored.

@Aurorus - In that 'self-vote' argument I also found your play overly aggressive, as though you were trying to make Seth look guilty, rather than question him.

@Akira - you asked Seth "What's your read on Valk?". I think this question is a little unfair (because of the complexity of the Seth/valk relationship) and I wouldn't hold it against Seth if he politely chose to decline answering.

---

Because of my possible V/LA I haven't asked any direct questions, but feel free to respond if you wish. x

[Haylen]

@Mod - Has Zauper been prodded at all?

He has until tomorrow before I start looking for a replacement.

[AurorusVox]

@Aurorus - In that 'self-vote' argument I also found your play overly aggressive, as though you were trying to make Seth look guilty, rather than question him.

If you look at my posts, you'll see that I had asked him a lot of questions. He didn't respond, so I took a different approach. I did keep putting questions in my posts for him, but there is little to be gained from simply asking questions when he disagrees with the basic premise of my questioning.

@Haylen, thanks for letting us know. I can hold off voting for anybody until his situation is sorted.

[MichelSableheart]

Seems like you're more afraid that scum is pushing for the easy lynch as opposed to considering that zauper might actually be scum. Do a reread on him and tell me what you think.

It is not fear that scum is pushing for the easy mislynch. It is a strong belief that scum is pushing for the mislynch. Judging from the behaviour of the other players, I conclude that zauper is town. There's no need for a reread. Besides, my opinion based on zaupers posts has already been given.

@Aurorus: Given his reaction, I believe Seth's "I may as well self vote" was an exaggeration (sp?) to illustrate how impossible he believes defending against accusations against Valkyrie is for him. What he intends to say is "if more players vote me for suspicions they have of Valkyrie, there's nothing I can do to safe myself". His mentioning selfvoting seems an example of something that wouldn't safe him, not as something he intends to do. In exactly the same way, he could have said "I may as well claim jester". The important part of the sentence is "may as well" which is completely different from "will".

I have to agree with you though that his reaction was a bit over the top given the relatively low amount of pressure he was under at the time.

Well, first off - do you think L-2 was getting him out from under the wood work? Nah? I agree.

This quote implies that you believe zauper will come back when he sees he's at L-1. Although the mod hadn't given information about prods at the time, zauper's last post in the thread was made almost a week ago. I can see no indication whatsoever that he'll come back because of your L-1 vote. If anything is going to work, it has to be a prod, but most likely he'll simply be replaced.

@Experienced players: is giving up more sign of townie or scum, and is it usually accompanied by a roleclaim?

In my experience, inactivity is rarely a sign of giving up. Players get replaced on this site often for a variety of reasons, to the extend that someone having to be replaced does not give any relevant information of their alignement.

[Akira]

@Bazz: I know what you mean. But still the most townish thing to do would be to reply, IMO, so to me, what matters the most is if he replies or not. Besides, omnino did it too in his ISO#1.
No more comments on my question before seth's reply please.

And thanks for the clarification, Michel and Aurorus.

[Guybrush]

@Akira

I asked you a question\confirmation in #292, in case you didnt' see it.

[omnino]

Well, first off - do you think L-2 was getting him out from under the wood work? Nah? I agree.

This quote implies that you believe zauper will come back when he sees he's at L-1. Although the mod hadn't given information about prods at the time, zauper's last post in the thread was made almost a week ago. I can see no indication whatsoever that he'll come back because of your L-1 vote. If anything is going to work, it has to be a prod, but most likely he'll simply be replaced.

If

applied pressure is not having the desired effect

and

there is more pressure left to apply,

then

apply it.

If it didn't have the desired effect, then we're not exactly losing anything by applying the extra pressure. If someone jumps in with a lynch before the end of the day without any news on Zauper, they are Suspect No. 1 for Day 2 [well, my Suspect No. 1].

If Zauper doesn't come back, then we will have to build another hanging frame around someone else.

[AurorusVox]

Okay, so I've discounted wanting to lynch Akira or 2k3 at the moment. My lynch candidates are between Zauper and seth, but I won't vote for Zauper if he - or his replacement - hasn't had a chance to claim. I'd personally be much more comfortable with a seth lynch, because:

a) His reaction to a little probing was over the top. Even forgiving the point about the self-vote, his defences were suspiciously over-reactive.
b) In his post FoSing Zauper, he didn't actually ask any questions. He just stated "This is scummy, that is bullshit" etc. He also suggested that Akira needed to be further probed, but didn't make any efforts to do this...
c) I still have suspicions about a Valk-seth/2k3 Scumteam. Lynching seth will give me more information about this possibility.
d) There are still lingering suspicions about Valk's play (I too found her jumping to my defence strange, and her declaration that she would answer questions and then disappearing does still present a concern, though that concern is lessened because it looked like she simply went inactive). Although this same argument can be said to apply to Zauper, considering the rest of the points above, I am more comfortable with a seth lynch.
e) Furthermore, Zauper's response to my major suspicion of him (explaining that his "defensive" stance was concerned with PRs), though it doesn't satisfy me completely, did take some of the edge off of my suspicions.

In contrast to Guybrush's suspicion of seth, I find more reasons to suspect him because of

his

play than Valk's. For all of these reasons, I will place my vote;

Vote: seth

[Haylen]

theperson replaces Zauper, welcome him!

[Akira]

Welcome theperson, take your time reading the lengthy posts and make sure to remember to answer the (many) questions unanswered by zauper.

@Guybrush: Sorry for forgetting, I'll answer right away.

@akira

Could you explain to me this:
Akira:

"Although zauper agreed with my posts twice, I still believe he could be scum."

(#183)
Does that quote suggest that agreeing with you is a plus for him in your eyes?
But regardless of that plus, you still believe he's scum?
Correct me if I'm wrong with that interpretation.

My idea was that maybe it looked like a plus in his eyes, and he thought it would have made me less suspicious of him. I'm not sure if those were his intentions when agreeing with me or not, but I believe it to be a good possibility. It was a way for me to say "Sorry that won't work, I still suspect you".

[theperson]

OK. Well, my computer's acting up lately, but I should be able to finish reading and get a post in today or tomorrow. Hopefully I won't keep you guys waiting too much.

Oh yeah, and I confirm. I've read the first 2ish pages...but going to dinner right now.

[MichelSableheart]

@Omnino: The problem with pressuring someone who is inactive is that you aren't doing anything useful. Your pressure vote was extremely unlikely to have any effect. Pressuring an inactive feels more like placing your vote on a safe spot rather then actual scumhunting.

[omnino]

First off, it's

than

, not then.

Secondly; define useful? Had someone taken the bait and slammed an opportunistic hammer on Zauper whilst the L-1 was in play, we'd have a good place to start Day 2's investigations with. In the same vein the people who have expressed the desire to hammer but held off in favour of a replacement have gained trust in the sense that this is very town-like behavior.

Do not discard every post you do not see the sense in as useless, because some times you might be skirting your way through someone plans.

[MichelSableheart]

Had someone taken the bait, as you call it, we would almost certainly have had a dead pro-town player, without any direct indication that the player placing the hammer was scum. I've seen inattentive pro-town players place the hammer accidentally way too often for that strategy to work.

[omnino]

Had someone taken the bait, as you call it, we would almost certainly have had a dead pro-town player, without any direct indication that the player placing the hammer was scum. I've seen inattentive pro-town players place the hammer accidentally way too often for that strategy to work.

You're so certain of your read on Zauper [I'll remind you that's 15 posts of read] that you say 'would have almost certainly lost a pro-town player'?

No way anyone is that certain of their read after 15 posts, not unless 10 of them are breadcrumbing a role, which he wasn't.

I can understand you doubting the case, as there are never strong cases on day one, but to pretty much give Zauper [and theplayer, by assosiation] a green light like that is very counter productive, in my opinion, even borderline scummy*.

*Based on the fact that only Scum and Cops can be assured of alignments, and we're still at a stage where cops have no info outside of the visible game, leaving only scum.

[AurorusVox]

Couple of points I'd like to follow up on;

In my experience, inactivity is rarely a sign of giving up. Players get replaced on this site often for a variety of reasons, to the extend that someone having to be replaced does not give any relevant information of their alignement.

Michel, do you think that the context preceding someone's inactivity should be taken into account? For example, their posts, any questions aimed at them, the number of votes that they have accrued.

If Zauper doesn't come back, then we will have to build another hanging frame around someone else.

Don't you think it would be wise to begin looking for your second suspect already, now that Zauper has been replaced? There's no need to unvote before you start scumhunting other people; i.e. you can simultaneously interrogate theperson

and

look for that other potential lynch. Because if people wait too long, then this second candidate will not have time to defend him/herself and claim if the wagon switches to him/her. As a matter of fact, who is your second suspect?

Pressuring an inactive feels more like placing your vote on a safe spot rather then actual scumhunting.

Michel, you've stated this without telling us if this changes your read on Omnino. IIRC, the main reason you didn't want to lynch the LM spot was that LM had been incredibly inactive and so you wanted to see more from Omnino and therefore decided that he was an "emergency lynch" only. Since Omnino has been playing, what's your read on his spot?

First off, it's

than

, not then.

I notice the way you lead with a completely irrelevant semantics point. But I agree that someone lynching Zauper before the replacement came in could have looked scummy - though Michel does raise a fair point that sometimes townies unfortunately just don't pay enough attention to the game to realise. However, (and I'm surprised that you didn't bring this up) Michel's post fails to take context into account.

Michel; The only people who weren't voting for Zauper were you, Guybrush, myself, Zauper (of course) and seth. I don't think your concerns are as relevant when considering this. Both you and Guybrush have said that you don't support a Zauper lynch. Zauper (hopefully) wouldn't have self-voted. I keep an updated spreadsheet with all of the votes on, so I don't think I could be considered someone who doesn't pay enough attention. That leaves seth, and if seth had voted to lynch Zauper before he had been replaced, I would have found that extremely scummy considering that he is the alternative wagon. I also highly doubt that had he taken such actions, your point of view on the Valk-seth spot would have been "inattentive townie."

[seth]

Theperson, claim.

[Akira]

Theperson, claim.

Okay, this is just weird. You have various questions to answer, and what do you post? An

order

to zauper/theperson to claim?? Is this some kind of distorted form of humor? Seriously, this makes me think you and him as the two scums. It explains why you Fos'd, but didn't vote, regardless of having various reasons to do so.

Time for MY order:

Seth, stop avoiding questions.

FoS: seth

(can't believe i didn't do this earlier.)

[seth]

Lmao. Ok. This is my first game. My read on Valk is townie because our role is town sided. Dumb questions. Anyways, how would me ordering someone to claim make us scum partners? Second, the fact that I haven't voted doesn't make us scumpartners either. I have hammer right now, I want him to claim - that's not scummy. The reason why I didn't vote him earlier is because I wanted to see how he would explain his actions, but he was replaced and now I want his replacement to claim for him. Having your replacement defend you is a waste of time. Nice reaction by the way. You being annoyed at me avoiding questions is good, but your reasoning for us being partners is bullshit. I'll give you some lee way for the former reason, but I've got my eye on you.

[theperson]

Sorry, I don't have as much time as expected today, and this is NOT an easy game to read. Lots of text. I might still finish today but it's possible I won't finish until tomorrow. I apologize, but I'd rather know what's going on but post later than just scan the thread and try to defend myself without doing any scumhunting.

[ooBAZZoo]

Just a quick post while I have time.
I find Seth's order to theperson to claim hypocritcal, scummy, and rude (if you'd like indepth reasons why, I'll provide them when I have more time, possibly wednesday night).

He says, "I have hammer right now, I want him to claim". Given his recent play I don't feel comfortable leaving such responsibility of the day one lynch in his hands. Before the hammer is even considered theperson should have a chance to respond to Zauper's play, answer any of our questions and,

if he then decides to

, claim.

Also, Seth's one-sentence answers to other people's questions anoy me. And in the same vein, one of Seth's priorities (rather than barking orders) should be responding to Aurorus's post #311, in which he gives a torrent of reasons why he finds Seth suspicious, and then votes for him. I can't believe somebody would have

nothing

to say in reply. My initial thoughts are that either Seth doesn't bother reading other people's posts (in which case he shouldn't even be playing), or infact all the points Aurorus makes are true (in which case he is scum).

---

@ Mod

- 2k3 has been inactive for a while, has he been given/is he due a prod? (I really hope we don't loose another player) x