Mini #1007 (Game Over)

[gonnano]

I've even said that a lying townie is a worthy mislynch if a player isn't acting scummier. But I've never said that lying is a scumtell, at least not that I recall in this game.

I was looking at this again and I'd like some further explanation. Are you saying that you would lynch a player that you think is probably town but has told a lie? Even randomly voting someone out of the pool of people that you don't have town reads on would be better than that.

Assuming that you're trying to lynch scum (admittedly a bit of a stretch in this game), the fact that you are willing to vote for a liar in the absence of game-specific scum reads would logically mean that you consider lying a scumtell, at least to some degree.

[AGar]

AGar, what was your purpose when you were trying to prove to Hoopla that you might not have read that post by Amished which mentioned Hoopla's "Miller" claim?

In this post, G&H demonstrates the scummy tactics of not reading the entire thread, while projecting the same issue onto another player who is, by default, unlikely to be their buddy.

It was pretty fucking clear why I made that statement. If you didn't read the 30-or-so posts regarding the entire issue, too damn bad. I'm not rehilighting why I posted what I posted. Go back, read the thread, and try again later.

Not sure where I stand on Hoopla's plan. I don't see the tremendous gains from it. And I see plenty of potential pitfalls.

Let's say we're in 3:9, with no doc/protective role. It could happen. dr is falseclaiming doctor as scum. One of his buddies, seeing this plan, decides "Hey, wait. I'll counter-claim the bastard." They take their chances. We lynch either dr or the buddy, and the other remaining scum cruises on the "Well, I guess that proves that I'm the doc." Pulls the wool over the town's eyes and turns our own plan against us.

There are a thousand and one ways this can go wrong, and very few where it goes right, in my eyes. Also, are we just "agreeing" to go along with it and claiming or are we going to do a popcorn style claim?

EBWOPreview:

First paragraph: Yes I will. I've explained why already - people who lie to the town usually cause mass confusion, and even if they seem the most pro-town person in the world after the lie, there's still that "well... what if?" factor about the lie that you don't want introduced in LYLO.

For the second: No. I consider lying to be wholly detrimental to the town, but it can come from any player regardless of alignment. As I just said, the lie is something considered to be dangerous in LYLO, at least I feel that way, and that's why LALiars is called a

policy

lynch. There is no "Well he's definitely X alignment" involved, it is a precautionary lynch to protect the town from confusion in LYLO.

Also, sorry I'm refusing to just tunnel on one player and thus am apparently not scumhunting.

[AlmasterGM]

not really... even though the scum know that we know that they know ... etc., they still couldn't risk keeping a doctor around for more than a Day or two.

Three days later, he's still alive. WHAT DO?

Re: Almaster - I do believe he missed my new points about his repeated backtracking on multiple occasions. Thus, my entire case isn't latching.

No.

In response to backtracking, there isn't any. I used part of your argument, part of my argument. Both were nessecary but not sufficent for the vote.

Or, if you insist there was backtracking, fine. My advocacy now is: both parts of the argument were necessary but not sufficient for the vote.

Also, at one point your entire case WAS latching. That when away, so then you started on the backpedaling thing. It's like starting on one rock, then when that rock sinks into the water, you jump onto the next one.

Ok I have the flu and I am getting no enjoyment out of this game. Almaster is who I think is scum, but I don't have the energy to type out my whole case.

Cool story, bro. Maybe the game isn't so much boring as you are lazy and stupid.

Hoopla's wagon took 19 posts to get up to 4 votes.
Almaster's wagon took 5 posts to get up to three votes.
Other attempts to start wagons have stayed at or below two votes.

Hmm hmm. And people think Zach, VRK, and shotty are town ... because?

shotty especially. It's like, "crap wagon might form, QUICK LET ME RESTABILIZE AGM WAGON."

I don't like Hoopla's plan. At all. I'll accept the statistics that there is probably one protection role. However...

1) The probability of there being a relevant doctor save is low, especially if shotty is the one doing the saving.
2) shotty is a proven idiot and could still be lying town, meaning we out the doctor AND mislynch shotty.
3) The real value of the doctor comes from his secrecy. He can save claimed PRs, confirmed townies, and/or confirm people by stopping the scumkill. Trading away these benefits by revealing a real doctor so we can keep shotty around is a TERRIBLE trade. If shotty is doctor, scum will just roleblock him and we'll get nothing, not to mention the fact that shotty's stupidity makes him useless as a confirmed townie anyway.

In short, it's an elaborate form of rolefishing. Why Hoopla decided to do this could vary. She could be shotty's scumbuddy doing damage control, she could watto use all those statistics she compiled, or might legit think it is a good idea. I think

1) This is the second time Hoopla has made up some "plan" that revolves around town PRs.
2) If shotty is scum, Hoopla's plan looks VERY scummy.
3) If shotty is town, Hoopla probably is too. I don't see why scum-Hoopla would dig up stats that others were unlikely to produce in order to halt a mislynch on a VI.

[AlmasterGM]

Although I find Hoopla still dangerous and suspicious, my suspicion of her isn't solid. I am willing to single her out as an outstanding player within the group, but I am not confident enough to place a vote. I'm satisfied with watching for now.

This alone makes me want to vote Elleren.

But the fact that Hoopla is pushing the case makes me skeppptical.

In this post, G&H demonstrates the scummy tactics of not reading the entire thread, while projecting the same issue onto another player who is, by default, unlikely to be their buddy.

Agreed.

(ZOMG IM LATCHING).

[Hoopla]

1) This is the second time Hoopla has made up some "plan" that revolves around town PRs.
2) If shotty is scum, Hoopla's plan looks VERY scummy.
3) If shotty is town, Hoopla probably is too. I don't see why scum-Hoopla would dig up stats that others were unlikely to produce in order to halt a mislynch on a VI.

In response to 2) - Are you kidding me? Going by the statistics, there is an 86% chance there is EXACTLY ONE protection role in the game. If I am scum with Shotty, he must be fakeclaiming, which means if this plan gains traction, there is an 86% chance of him being counterclaimed and then lynched.

---

Let's say we're in 3:9, with no doc/protective role. It could happen.

dr is falseclaiming doctor as scum. One of his buddies, seeing this plan, decides "Hey, wait. I'll counter-claim the bastard." They take their chances

. We lynch either dr or the buddy, and the other remaining scum cruises on the "Well, I guess that proves that I'm the doc." Pulls the wool over the town's eyes and turns our own plan against us.

There are a thousand and one ways this can go wrong, and very few where it goes right, in my eyes. Also, are we just "agreeing" to go along with it and claiming or are we going to do a popcorn style claim?

*colour-coded for easy reference

14% chance going by statistics. If you want to say this is statistically insignificant, go ahead, and I will put together the last 150 games for you (for the likely a similar result). If you want to discredit my plan by an outside chance of it failing, then you're seriously wallowing in a damaging cognitive bias, because EVERYTHING we do in this game will incur some risk, and I would suggest there is far more risk in playing this game straight and hoping our AWESOME town-scumhunting skills prevail in lynching scum D1 and D2.

So, you think the scum would gamble on a 14% chance of there being ZERO protection roles in the game? If there a town protection role out there, there is a very real chance of there being THREE protection roles claimed, which gives us two scum. Good gambit there.

[gonnano]

Three days later, he's still alive. WHAT DO?

Discuss strategy for a Day, then lynch Shotty the Scum

I don't agree with AGar that having a liar around in LYLO is worse than lynching a very pro-town player, but this is turning into a theory debate, so I won't push it any further.

Also, sorry I'm refusing to just tunnel on one player and thus am apparently not scumhunting.

What is this in response to?

There are a thousand and one ways this can go wrong, and very few where it goes right, in my eyes.

There are a thousand and one ways for people to be killed by office supplies, but that doesn't make it likely.

[AlmasterGM]

In response to 2) - Are you kidding me? Going by the statistics, there is an 86% chance there is EXACTLY ONE protection role in the game. If I am scum with Shotty, he must be fakeclaiming, which means if this plan gains traction, there is an 86% chance of him being counterclaimed and then lynched.

This presumes that, if you are both scum, keeping shotty alive means anything at all to you. It doesn't. Shotty is a liability, and if there really is an 86% chance of there being a counterclaim, you know he's going to die at some point before the game is up anyway. Why would you let him sit around and do nothing for 2 days when you could just cash him in now for the identity of the town doctor?

[Hoopla]

Gonnano, help me convince these clowns that this plan is a solid idea. There seriously aren't any losses outside of the chance Shotty is fakeclaiming as town. And this is a loss either way if we go by the plan or not.

The 'Hoopla is fishing for PR's!!!!' cries are a joke. Our doctor is already outed. By protection role massclaiming, we at worst expose our real protection role, which nigh on guarentees a scum lynch Day 1. Even though it is an outed protection role for this 'guarenteed' scum lynch, we're in the EXACT same situation as we are now if Shotty is town. If nobody counterclaims, we have a very strong chance of Shotty being town, which means Shotty will likely soak up a nightkill/roleblock, unless scum are going to gamble, or if the 14% chance of Shotty being scum eventuates.

[gonnano]

Almaster - If you believe the scenario that you described is true, why not look for the counterclaim, then lynch shotty if there is one, then lynch Hoopla if he flips scum? Losing a doc is definitely worth two scum lynches.

[Espeonage]

VOTECOUNT

3 -

Elleran

- Hoopla, gonnano, redtail896 (L-4)
2 -

AlmasterGM

- Agar, Vel-Rahn Koon (L-5)
1 -

gonanno

- ConfidAnon (L-6)
1 -

Zachrulez

- AlmasterGM (L-6)
1 -

myshottyizsik

- Zachrulez (L-6)

Not Voting - Good and Honest, Kid Know Nothing, Elleran, drmyshottyizsik

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Countdown Timer:
http://www.timeanddate.com/counters/cus ... c=0&p0=240

[drmyshottyizsik]

Mod: were is my vote?

Thanks for pointing that out for me.

[Zachrulez]

Unvote: Vote:AlmasterGM

Dislike Almaster's 227 where he seems to be pushing on shotty be scum with shaky theories. I still dislike shotty's scumclaim a lot... but the fact that he later claimed doctor and that claim has not been countered seems to point to shotty town on reflection.

[Zachrulez]

2) shotty is a proven idiot and could still be lying town, meaning we out the doctor AND mislynch shotty.

The fact that you throw this out there as a possibility bothers me. I don't think I ever saw anyone mention it, but if Shotty is NOT the doctor and town, he should take the claim back in his next post because this scenario can be seriously detrimental to the town.

[drmyshottyizsik]

I'm a doctor.

[gonnano]

Zach, what is your position on the massclaim? Claiming protection role/not protection role would be considered an acceptable answer to this question.

[gonnano]

EBWOP: Or whatever else you want to say. Not trying to force anything.

[gonnano]

Unfortunately I will be V/LA August 1-9, with the possibility of getting back the 8th or maybe even the 7th. Luckily, the way this works out with my timezone I should be able to post right up until the deadline of Day 1, be absent for the Night, and get right back in Day 2 soon after it starts.

[AGar]

Is it V/LA with limited access or V/LA with no posting? Just curious, honestly.

Alright, Hoopla, I'll bite. I admit my mistrust with the claim is simply that I don't see 100% benefit to mass-claims almost ever. I tend to lean pessimistic in regards to them.

I still want to know if we're just claiming out of the blue or if we want to do a popcorn style claim or something.

[AGar]

Also, gonnano, for #230, it was in response to the end of your #225 where you said it was a stretch that I was scumhunting. dry, sarcastic remark, really.

[Elleran]

Whoa, I didn't even realize that I had 3 votes already.

[AlmasterGM]

Whoa, I didn't even realize that I had 3 votes already.

Ooooh, scared?

MAKE IT 4.

Unvote. Vote: Elleran.

Also,

FoS Zach

for tunneling on me like its his job.

Seriously, the only thing he has done the whole game is say, "lynch VI shotty" and "AGM is scum" while consistently trying to justify himself as little as humanly possible.

[AGar]

34 hours and 57 posts and that's all you have in the way of input. Congratulations, you just leap-frogged Almaster.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Elleran

[drmyshottyizsik]

I tried not to jump on the wagon, but you're just too scummy

unvote

Vote: Elleran

[gonnano]

My V/LA is no access

[drmyshottyizsik]

if we lynch elleran you wont miss much