Newbie 982 - Shadows of Death, Game Over!

[2003041]

@GB: I noticed zauper acting this way before people commented. Remember, I was a target of zauper so I could see him trying to agree with everyone. I never commented because both Akira and Bazz commented and it would just be redundant to re-state this. Plus, I said I agreed with 2 people's statements, so why do you just pai me up with Bazz?
I knew my post would get conversations going again. Let's keep it up.

[Haylen]

Vote Count

woooo weekend. Damn work!

2K3: Zauper, Guybrush
Zauper: 2k3, ooBAZZoo, Akira
Valkyrie_Hrist: Michel

Not Voting: omnino; Valkyrie_Hrist, AVox

Deadline is Sunday 1st August 9pm GMT+1. With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.

Akira's V/LA has been noted.

[AurorusVox]

I think I agree with Michel's assessment of who to lynch, but I'd put Zauper above Akira in the lynch list.

For me;
Valk is out of V/LA but is still not posting. Which in and of itself isn't so bad, but the fact that she's left questions hanging - and she knows that she's done this, because she said she would answer them - is very suspicious. This is active lurking at its worst, and is an indication of scum that doesn't know how to answer the questions.
Zauper's response to my question about aggression/subtlety was a scumtell in my mind. I'd put him as my second favourite lynch, not first, because I'm basing my biggest suspicions mostly off of this response, and the rest has been stated in others' arguments.
2k3's early play was definitely lynch-worthy, but his more recent play has placated my suspicions to an extent. I won't ignore his earlier play, but I won't base my whole suspicion on it. I'd probably put him third in the list.
My read of Akira is a little scummy, a little townie. I wouldn't try to start his lynch but I am a little uncomfortable with him.
Lurking alone is a null-tell, so I agree with Michel about not lynching LoakaMossi.

And a GB, Michel or BAZZ lynch isn't on the cards for me at the moment.

[Guybrush]

@2003

It wouldn't be redundant if you stated it before others did, and you claim you've noticed it BEFORE them.
I find it weird for a guy who says he doesn't know how to contribute, that he left out a piece of valuable observation he made.
You agreed with ooBAZZoo's original statement. And BTW, I was using YOUR logic; you can't counter-question me with your own logic.

[AurorusVox]

I find it weird for a guy who says he doesn't know how to contribute, that he left out a piece of valuable observation he made.

Do you think that it's more likely that he didn't think this at the time, and has retroactively said that he did - or that he did notice it but didn't want to appear to be agreeing with other players, since that was the accusation aimed at Zauper?

[Guybrush]

@Aurorus

He said he saw it first, so he wouldn't be agreeing with anyone at that point.
I'm pretty sure he's lying and hasn't seen it before others.

[AurorusVox]

@Aurorus

He said he saw it first, so he wouldn't be agreeing with anyone at that point.
I'm pretty sure he's lying and hasn't seen it before others.

Mm; you're right, this makes no sense:

I noticed zauper acting this way

before

people commented.

I never commented because both Akira and Bazz commented

GB: Do you believe in lynch all liars?
2k3: Why didn't you comment on it when you first saw it?

[AurorusVox]

P.S., sorry if I seem abrupt, I'm trying out shorter posts xD

[Guybrush]

GB: Do you believe in lynch all liars?

I'm not a policy kind of guy. I'm always up for discussing individual cases.
However, at the beginning of this game, I'd probably answer "yes" to this one;
but I have certain doubts (and a gut feeling) about 2003.
So to answer your question - I

wouldn't

be up for lynching all liars.
I very much dislike 2003's playstyle, and it seems like he made tons of mistakes. Unfortunately, I can see all of this coming from a stubborn\emotional\noob townie. (the thing that doesn't add up is his rushed Valk lynch suggestion)

@2003

If you lied, please say so, you're only confusing town even more about you.

[ooBAZZoo]

Vote Valk out of the game instead of waiting for a replacement. This game just seems too long for someone to try and catch up to for just a Day 1 situation.

As far as I’m aware, people are replaced at all sorts of times, often with far more info to catch up on than we have here. It’s something they prepare for when they /in to replace. This strikes me as a devious suggestion from 2k3.

@ 2k3 - Your reason for suggesting Valk is lynched cannot simply be because it’d be unfair on her replacement. I see it as being for one of two reasons:
a) You find her the most scummy. (although as Guybrush has highlighted, you’ve previously expressed no evidence for her being mafia) - I’d find this reason a little scummy.
or
b) You don’t care who is lynched, you only want to get to the night phase, and Valk's recent lurking makes her an obvious target. – I’d find this reason extremely scummy.

Could you please clarify why you suggested that Valk is lynched. Was it for one of the reasons I’ve stated above, or for another reason?


@ Michel – You have stated the people who you are prepared to lynch. Is this merely you letting the town know where your thoughts are, or are you saying this because you want action to be taken soon?
Also, a noob question - I’m not quite sure what you mean by:

I am NOT willing to support a Loaka/Omnino lynch, except when needed to guarantee a lynch at deadline

Although I’m highly suspicious of her, personally I’m prepared to wait for Valk to respond/be replaced. I’m aware of the other scum-tells that people have identified, yet IMO a lynching would be too much of a knee-jerk reaction to a few days of inactivity (both from her and from the thread in general). x

[omnino]

Going through ISO's, and have a

FoS

for Zauper.

Seems your interrogating picked up for about 2 posts after it was mentioned you'd spent more time nodding in agreement than pointing fingers; then went back to simple nods and non-committal questions. Bear in mind it's not the style of play that I find suspicious, but the reaction to change it for a short time before regressing that catches my eye.

Would also like to say that I would currently support a lynch for 2k3, Akira and Zauper. I reckon the case on 2k3 is certainly the strongest, but the mention of awkward social interaction early in the game could account for some of the flaws in his play-style [not all, there are some definite tells in his play].

For now I'm going to

Vote: Akira

, though. As I want Akira to tell me why his belief that Mafia would be prudent in their accusations changed in such a short space of time early on in the game. Vote will remain until question is answered or a better candidate is in need of hammering near the DL.

[omnino]

Just have to add that the comment in my opening post about Akira not voting... I'll retract that. My mistake, Aki.

[ooBAZZoo]

Do you think that Valk's "lack of answers" is more suspicious that Zauper's "agreeing with answers already posted"?

I see both Valk’s lurking and Zauper’s agreeing as equally suspicious in themselves. However, Zauper’s agreeing is one of a number of factors that contributes to my general feeling of Zauper being scum.
With Valk on the other hand, her inactivity is the main argument to her being mafia, and because there could be alternative explanations for it, I wouldn’t be prepared to lynch her without further evidence. (for example, a loss of interest in the game is plausible, which means her lynching would be a mistake). Although I don’t necessarily dispute them, I don’t see Michel’s other accusations of her in post #222 as evidence enough for her being scum.

@ Omnino – I’m not going to accuse you of avoiding answering my questions quite this early (I’m sure you’ve got loads to read), but I did ask you about your experience. From the few posts you’ve made you appear to know what you’re talking about. x

[2003041]

@GB&AV: Sorry, I meant to say as instead of before. I apologize for the confusion.
@Bazz: I was only posting options, I didn't say we had to do them. Yes, I do find it weird that I posted options, but I'm glad I did because conversations have increased since then. I could've made the list much longer, but I just wanted to do a small list.

[omnino]

@ Omnino – I’m not going to accuse you of avoiding answering my questions quite this early (I’m sure you’ve got loads to read), but I did ask you about your experience. From the few posts you’ve made you appear to know what you’re talking about. x

Sorry Bazz, haven't quite come to your ISO yet.

My experience on this site is two games, one played out to a town win [I was NK'd as VT] and one still running [NK'd as town Cop]. Have played Mafia in other forums, but I'd say at most I have about 12 games under my belt, but I find MS to be completely different in pace, strategy and the level of player.

[AurorusVox]

@2k3

Could you name all the people who you would be willing to lynch today?

I'm interested in seeing this too.

[ooBAZZoo]

Just a note to everyone: I think I'm right in saying that Valk has around 12 hours left to post before being replaced.

@2k3

I was only posting options, I didn't say we had to do them.

Nevertheless, you must have been posting options that you either agreed with or thought were feesible? I don't buy the fact that you put it there as a conversation starter.

Also, I asked you a question (back at post #205) about any posts that validate or invalidate your vote of Zauper. You gave a vauge answer (in post #209) that was prefaced by...

I haven't been on in some time and I can't re-read ATM

...since your wi-fi is now sorted, have you had a chance to re-read so that you can give a more informed answer about Zauper? (I realise that I too am voting for Zauper, but I see my vote as justified, where as I'm still unclear about your reasoning).

Have there been any posts since then that have changed, or supported, your suspicions of someone else?

[2003041]

@AV&GB: I'd be willing for a Valk or a zauper lynch.
@Bazz: 1) You have to say though since I posted the options conversations have picked up.
2) I have already answered that in 209. Yes, I understand that my logic can be poor at times, but my instincts are usually right. I still stand behind my zauper vote though.

[Guybrush]

@2003

You say you would lynch Valk, but not Loaka (omnino).
Could you answer to my #221 then, where I asked you what's the difference between Valk disappearing and Loaka disappearing?
Do you even think Valk could be scum, or you proposed to lynch her just to speed things up, for the sake of town? (no matter Valk's alignment)

[2003041]

Well, Valk was posting on a regular basis and then just dropped off the face of the earth apparently while Loaka was just never rally in the game to begin with. I think there is a possibility that Valk is scum (she's a close 2nd right now), but it was just an idea I pitched tocomment on to get the conversations going again.

[ooBAZZoo]

@2k3 - I'm not particularly satisfied with these answers [to my questions, not Guybrush's], and my suspicion of you (and/or frustration) is increasing by the minute. I'll let the Zauper matter drop for now though.

Could you please answer my final question (in post#241), but try and make a more detailed analysis of the evidence infront of you so you can present a reasoned argument? I'm going to bed now so you have a long time to construct a response. (sorry if this sounds a bit demanding) x

[2003041]

Okay, I'll ISO.
ISO's 1-4: Shows he's trying to get on the good side of AV by being persuaded to vote against me.
ISO 8: He does mention to me that he doesn't understand the accusation of getting on everyone's good side. He does mention [to Bazz] that even though he never had a direct conversation with me, he still voted against me.
ISO 9: AV asks him why he's repeating questions that have already been asked. His response was 'not being satisfied with the response'. He also didn't have time to ask questions to you because he didn't 'suspect Bazz at the moment', even though you had placed your vote on him.
ISO 12: He's low on time for the weekend (understandable), but it's Tuesday. He's only had 2 additional posts since ISO 12, which seems to me that he's actively lurking. I did just notice that he's out of town, but there's no official V/LA. He also has posted 2 more times since this V/LA, but not recently. I understand though, he may not have any access at the moment, but he should still post a V/LA.
ISO 13:

Has anyone seen Valk lately? Seems that Valk is being quiet.

While this is true, it just seems that he's trying to throw suspicion off himself to another player by pointing out that Valk never reposted after coming back.
ISO 14: After asking about Valk, he has suspicions of Akira, but doesn't cast a vote because it would look 'scummy'.
You're all accusing me because 'I haven't contributed enough', even though I restarted conversation and have been asking people questions. As I said, my logic can seem poor at times, but I stand where I am. I am contributing, even if you really don't think so. I don't see much of zauper contributing, just re-asking questions and answering questions directed at him without trying to ask new questions, though he has asked a very small number of rebuttle questions. If you still aren't satisfied, that's fine, but my vote still stands.
@Bazz: If you've dropped the zauper argument ATM, why haven't you unvoted? Do you really believe zauper is scum and just wanted me to state a case, or were you testing me because you have suspicions of me?
@GB: Is there a problem with me giving a small list of ideas to restart conversation? Conversation has picked up considerablysince then, don't you agree? If I really wanted to go with idea 2, don't you think I would've voted for Valk immediately after my ideas or at some point inbetween then and now?

[MichelSableheart]

@ Michel – You have stated the people who you are prepared to lynch. Is this merely you letting the town know where your thoughts are, or are you saying this because you want action to be taken soon?

I don't think action needs to be taken immediately, but I would like to see discussion focus on who we want to lynch. It's better to decide on a lynch through discussion then through a last minute deadline scramble.

Also, a noob question - I’m not quite sure what you mean by:

I am NOT willing to support a Loaka/Omnino lynch, except when needed to guarantee a lynch at deadline

According to rule number 3, a No Lynch will occur if no majority is reached at the end of a day.

A No Lynch is bad for town in most cases, especially on day 1 of a newbie game. Assuming mafia kills each night (which they are likely to do), we can afford 2 mislynches before we have to lynch correctly or lose (Lylo) (2 lynches, 2 kills, means 5 players alive, among whom 2 mafia members). However, if we No lynch, mafia kills someone at night, and we only can afford 1 mislynch (kill, lynch, kill gives six players alive. a mislynch and another kill would mean 4 players alive with 2 mafia members, in which case the mafia can control the town lynch). A no lynch would effectively cost us a lynch, which is bad.

Because of this, I am willing to vote Omnino near deadline if that would mean we get a majority when there won't be a majority otherwise.

[ooBAZZoo]

Thanks for explaining Michel.

@2k3

@Bazz: If you've dropped the zauper argument ATM, why haven't you unvoted?

Sorry if I didn't make my post #245 clear enough. What I meant was I'll stop pestering

you

for an answer about Zauper. When I asked for a more comprehensive answer to "my final question (in post #241)" I was refering to this:

Have there been any posts since then that have changed, or supported, your suspicions of

someone else

?

Instead you went back and answered my question about Zauper (which I just said I'd drop). Nevermind though, I'm sure it was just a misunderstanding (I can't see how it would benefit you as scum to deliberatly misinterpret my questions).

Do you really believe zauper is scum and just wanted me to state a case, or were you testing me because you have suspicions of me?

A bit of both, but I mainly asked those questions because, although you've been clear about

who

you suspect as scum, I'm not sure

why

you have these suspicions.
Feel free to answer the question about the other players, but I wont further push you for answers for now. x

[ooBAZZoo]

Regarding your post about Zauper though, I too noticed that he's been away for a while. he said last Friday:

My activity will be relatively low today and over the weekend.

He gave two short posts on Saturday, but its now Wednesday. This strikes me as particularly suspicious. There could be an alternative explination for his absence, but he could also be trying to avoid attention whith three votes on his head.

@ Zauper

- why have you been inactive? Do you have anything to contribute regarding recent posts?

@ Haylen

- Is Zauper not due for a prod? x