AGar is quite probably town. His fiery and definitive position on my claim certainly is not what I expect a typical scum mindset to be. He was quick to cite the game we were involved in together with my fakeclaim, and it's obvious this was a bias shaping his opinion on my claim. But when you look at the way he argues (especially early on page 2), you can definitely see a sense of paranoia, something he wouldn't be influenced by if he were scum. If he were scum, he would be exploiting my meta to slander my name (and in a sense, he
was
doing that), but this is a natural piece of information to debate with as both alignments. But I stress, the most important thing is the steadfast, definitive position he takes on my claim, which is a good indication of paranoia (a trait likelier to be town).
As scum, the instinctive way of playing is to keep options open, because boxing yourself into one mindset is a dangerous position to be in if it goes awry. You'll often see scum offer opinions on something with an air of flexibility, an air of wriggle room - some small, subtle spin on words or a less-than-whole commitment, so they can shift a different way on that view if necessary. The PGO is the perfect example of something that can be analysed for these tells. And the strongest tell I have unearthed is AGar's one-minded approach to my claim, which is in no way the way scum would deal with such an event. It is passionate and fiery, and reading his responses to my question about the town motivations, he doesn't give them due consideration, and though a mistake to make as townie, it's something scum would be careful to filter into an argument.
It's far likelier in my view, that scum have taken a mostly middling view of this event, and players like redtail, ConfidAnon and Elleran are those that tick that box mostly, for me. Almaster and Vel take neutral positions on the claim, but attack the meta arguments I debated with early on, and it feels strange how similar both their attacks were. Even though it is far too early to hunt scumpairs, I feel confident they aren't scum together, as it would be an odd scum play to espouse a shared view on something that has such a scope for varied opinions.
Though I will be accused of probabilistic reasoning, I think it is a reasonable guess to think I've one scum on my wagon, and it seems a tough pick to guess who, if any. The Shotty, late random vote on me was just bizarre, and reeks of VI, and usually I think I'm good at figuring out these characters, but I don't know. I think one of Vel/Almaster is likelier to be scum, and it's an avenue I want to pursue, because I've derived associative tells between them which gives more information if one flips scum.
I know this will be my first vote, so I can't criticise the way the game is going so far, but I think I must say it is about time everyone not voting to put one down. There have been enough significant events to hedge an opinion either way on someone. And most importantly, votes/wagons give vital information later in the game, so I urge all you non-voters to drop a vote in your next post.
I would love some support for this, by the way. I know my case makes logical jumps, but I actually feel good about this vote.