Mini 1000: The Brave and the Beautiful (Game Over)

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I suppose that means we can post. Transferrrring vote:

Vote: Ythan

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Hey, folks. Woo! A few names I've played with before - in particular, shout-outs to Ythan, bv310 and SK.

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SensFan, too.

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1. For fun. And because I like most of the people on the site.
2. I don't lick them.
3. D'ya mean early game? I look for scumtells as quickly as possible and go with them. For example, I'm voting Ythan because I think scum would be more disposed to be worried about the banner's effects on role plausibility than town.
4. Ordered, logical, drawn-out. But I probably rely on gut more than I care to admit.
5. ERROR
6. Fables Grimmafia

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Everyone is falling victim to the infamous Neto RVS questions that give him a foundation for his scumhunting! Sorry Neto, I've been tricked by you. I've played with you. I basically grew up on Mafia with you. So all your tricks are known to me. I haven't seen you in awhile. So you might have some new ones.

This doesn't make any sense. I'd imagine that Neto does this regardless of his alignment, and that he manipulates it to serve his interests as scum. If he's town, participating lets him do his thing. If he's not, we may catch him doing something outrageous with the information. Unless you have meta to suggest otherwise (in which case, I'd think you'd vote him), I don't understand your attitude here.

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Still makes no sense. Your apparent way of dealing with a player you find hard to read is to reduce their capacity to produce content.

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Would similarly like more explanation.

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So, Robo is scummy for something, and I'm scummy for pointing out that the scummy thing was scummy?

That makes no sense.

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Everyone is falling victim to the infamous Neto RVS questions that give him a foundation for his scumhunting! Sorry Neto, I've been tricked by you. I've played with you. I basically grew up on Mafia with you. So all your tricks are known to me. I haven't seen you in awhile. So you might have some new ones.

This doesn't make any sense. I'd imagine that Neto does this regardless of his alignment, and that he manipulates it to serve his interests as scum. If he's town, participating lets him do his thing. If he's not, we may catch him doing something outrageous with the information. Unless you have meta to suggest otherwise (in which case, I'd think you'd vote him), I don't understand your attitude here.

This is the bit you're talking about? Please be clear. To my eye, my response is pretty identical to your point that Robo was scummy for his response to normalNeto (plus some explanation for why I think Robo's perspective is mistaken at best).

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Way to totally ignore my question @ Ythan.

(That's L-2.)

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Well, that was neat.

If we look at RC's global posting pattern on the site, we may get an idea of when the "Zerg Rush" ability was sent in. This is relevant based on the probability that it was sent in prior to robo claiming needing an extra vote to lynch him.

Ythan, why is that post scummy?

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Probability that one of the scum is Sarah Kerrigan is near 100%. Just sayin.

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^ Uh, why are you asking for those details now?

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The parsimonious explanation is that scum saw that he would be quiclynched with Zerg Rush. They miscalculated because he happened to have a difference lynch threshold.

This theory is no good if RC posted elsewhere on the site AFTER the extra lynch vote claim and before RC's Zerg Rush post.

The alternate theory is that Roboscum has mischievously arranged these circumstances to make it appear that he has cleared himself. This is comparatively remote IMO.

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I said that I thought it was comparatively remote.

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I think it's very unlikely that Robo is scum. An extra vote (appearing to put him at L-1) in that time could have totally messed up a hypothetical ZergRush fake "confirm" on him and led to a real lynch.

The only way it is possible is if Robo was lying about his lynch threshold +1 ability altogether and he was actually just immune to the ZergRush altogether or something. Otherwise, the plan was too risky. And even WITH that, there's no reason for scum to pull a stunt like that D1.

Doublealso, that kind of plan posits either very hardcore pregame talk or daytalk. Several players seem to be accepting this premise implicitly, which is interesting. In light of the former possibility, I wish I'd made a note of the confirm order. I sent my confirm via PM rather than posting in the thread, so the posted confirms aren't a good cipher.

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Furcolow, are you not reading the thread very well, or do you really think that present circumstances make Robo more likely to be scum?

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Oh. I misread it as "We can find a better lynch; namely, robocopter."

Question withdrawn.

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I think it would take a really rogue kind of acting-alone scumplayer to pull that kind of thing off if a scumfriend were the one closest to lynch. I'm sure there are some player personalities that might do it, but I think they're rare.

This is doubly true if ZR is a one-time ability, since it could probably give scum a free lynch under ordinary circumstances, which I'd see as a more effective use of the ability.

Again, it IS sort of vacuously possible that there is a conspiracy, but it is more remote.

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My top single suspect up to this point is Millar. I think his vote for Robotown was the most bizarre, and I think his play in the aftermath makes little sense.

My second-tier is Neto-S2B as a scumpair. First, Neto weakly attacks S2B out of nowhere. Then, S2B calls him out for "distancing" with me. In light of other things that have happened, these seems like an unusual place for one's focus. It's also an odd choice of words. For example, Neto and I hadn't attacked one another at all, so saying that we're distancing from one another is totally bogus. It reads like "Let's distance!" "LOL OK!" to me.

I'll be in rural Kentucky this weekend visiting family. I may not have regular access to the computer.

V/LA until Monday

.

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To clarify:

Neto: Let's distance! (When he attacked you literally out of nowhere)
S2B: LOL OK! (When you counter-attacked saying that Neto was doing lame weak distancing with me.)

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Had a chance to catch up. Notes follow. First bit are from memory from where I stopped:

1. I agree with most of Muffin's points about millar. A lot of it is sort of a stretch, but that's just because he did all the posts for the sake of completion. Flipside is that I sometimes go for that angle as scum, so.

2. Agree with Neto's evaluation of said post.

3. Robo's "corrective" post is shifty in that a lot of his "corrections" are like "that wasn't that much of a big deal" when millar intentionally did a complete PBPA. And the complete PBPA was warranted in that part of the argument against millar was vacuity.

4. Millar's "well I am pro-town so I am clearly listing myself as scum" bit is so endearingly cute that I can't really think that it would come from scum. It may indicate daytalk if he is scum. If millar flips scum, looking at the players who appeared to assume daytalk around the Zerg Rush bit might be informative.

Now it's purely chronological:

5. Furcolow's blatant pro-opting of my Neto-S2B scumteam postulate is O.o, especially since he cites something that's not different from the prior point and argues that it negates it.

6. Ythan's posts continue to seem really peripheral. I don't get the impression that he really cares how people answer his questions. My only experience with him is a scum iso I read through, though, and he made a point to wallpost "strategy" in that game. So...I am meta-poor with him. I'm at bottom of page 13.

7. Kdub/Neto 331.332 interaction reads weird to me. Kdub's first two paragraphs are really equivocal. Asking Neto about S2B is good, though. Neto's response is different from what I remembered his case on S2B being ("To change the subject, S2B is in this game! And suspicious!"), and he apologizes for having made it.

8. Furcolow's suggestion that Muffin was connected to the Zerg Rush ability doesn't make sense to me. What is the basis for that belief? It looks like he's just bullying him.

9. I predict that SX will say mean things about Furcolow's subsequent <3meta<3 moments. I loved him a little there, though.

10. I think Robo has misunderstood Furcolow's point near the bottom of page 14. Furcolow isn't really framing said argument very aggressively, so I can't blame him for misundertanding.

11, Lol @ Furco wanting to claim as the Cop.

12. Millar's suggestion that blowing things up is in any way related to what was clearly AN ACTION PERFORMED BY SARAH KERRIGAN, SCUM GODDESS, MADE MORE OBVIOUS BY THE FACT THAT SAINTKERRIGAN IS OUR CO-MOD, is VERY DUMB. I am sort of O.O

13. Furcolow saying "buddy" is a GOD HE IS JUST TRYING TO BE SCUMMY moment. I again don't understand.

14. MoI is my boyfriend for using meta nullification on a player he thinks is scummy. MoI is probably town if Furcolow is scum. The chronology of his post is a a little weird; I'd like it if he could explain it to me. Also, why didn't you yell at me for keeping my vote on Ythan when I said Millar was top scum? I ask because you attack S2B for as much.

15. Want to know why Millar brought up Jack in the following post. Are you saying that Jack is a bad player?

16. Wow I am totally in love with MoI this game.

17. Millar's post about not wanting to stand out because he plays like a survivor (and everyone does, regardless of whether they admit it, or something) is extremely scummy (as it's a justification for apparently deliberately poor play), but also sounds honest. He is extremely frustrating.

18. Millar's subsequent claim that he has "sacrificed himself" is similarly bizarre. What the hell is he talking about? In whose universe was he Jesus on the cross? But I still get a weirdly honest vibe.

19. Also, Neto is more well-behaved lately. Or, more accurately, I think several of his posts are scummy, but in the same way that I thought his posts were really scummy in Nouns mafia, where I mislynched him D1. So yeah. This is bottom of page 15.

20. Millar is getting total Woobiefication from me on page 16.

21. Ythan again appears not to really care what's going on. Some "I hope you're lynched" rhetoric is all I get.

22. Furco kept tabs on who was online during the Zerg Rush? Is that based on looking at Members Currently Online at said time, or via

msutils

the search function?

23. Do not like Robo's push on Furco. He's still probably town because of ZR, though.

24. Hey, random thought secondary to Robo's Furco push. I was reflecting on the plausibility of Tanya being a fakeclaim. But. Sarah Kerrigan is a witch from an RTS. Tanya appears to be a sort of Chaotic Neutral-tier witch from an RTS. So...that aspect does fit.

25. I love MoI so so so so so so much.

26. I don't understand Furco's explanation for removing bv and me from the "maybe Sarah Kerrigan" list. Also, please clarify the point of the list to me if I misunderstand it. Also, keep in mind that there was probably a lag between "sent in action" and "RC posted action."

27. SX's start post is intriguing. I wonder why he for all intents and purposes left Furco and Millar off the lynch wagon, though.

28. SX's claim that the first pages are "jibber jabber" when HELLO ALERT THERE WAS A FAILED SUB-THRESHOLD LYNCH ON A PLAYER ALERT INFORMATION SOURCE INFORMATION SOURCE. But SX somehow always takes this attitude toward everything I find interesting about a game and wins it, presuming that he's town. Also, I don't think this kind of approach is historically scumSX AFAIK, particularly given lack of a replace-in. If he took longer to post in than might have been expected, Daytalk could make up the difference, but it's a long-shot.

So, I cautiously trust SX, but I'd like it if he could give me another nugget or so.

[Iecerint]

SX, when do you intend to reveal the information? D2, or later than that?

Are you choosing your wagon because they're perceived town, or for different reasons?

Use your discretion.

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Yes, well, I told you to use your discretion, etc.

I could come up with scum machinations, but I'll let whoever do so, since, ye know, I'm fairly certain they don't apply.

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@ MO, I'm not professing love for you on the basis of any perceived breadcrumb, if that's what you're implying.

Your post seemed like it would've been based on a readthrough, but you described events all out-of-order, so I figured you were writing it all from memory. It wasn't clear how you were organizing your thoughts, though, so I asked if there was some kind of narrative. It's not a hugely important point; just might help me read your post a little.

I kept voting Ythan because I knew the lynch threshold was lowered, and I wouldn't be able to change it while I was V/LA. Also, while my vote for him was RVS, it wasn't random. And his posting since then has also been lackluster IMO. The problem is that I'm metapoor with him; I've only read one scumgame that was a lot different from this Ythan. So, it's not a confident read. And now I'm not one of SX's chosen saints.

Of those in the D1 lynch running, I think I'd rather see Shotty or Furco go than Millar. Reasoning (already listed) is just that millar's scummy-seeming posts subjectively seem honest to me.

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Yuri with my character is probably considerably above-average, though. Breadcrumb.

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The thing is, given that you (fake?)claimed Tanya, RTS Chaotic Neutral goddess, the chance that YOU are in fact Sarah Kerrigan, scum RTS Chaotic Evil goddess with Zerg Rush is much higher than the background probability.

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Anyone have any meta on RC's fakeclaim-distributing history?

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OK, so, my thinking is that giving players fakeclaims that maximally resemble their actual roles would be a good balancing move by the Mod because it minimizes the extent to which claim analysis per se could break the game in 95% of cases while maintaining aesthetic symmetry. For example, giving an RTS villain and RTS fakeclaim would preserve any game genre pattern analysis ("too many shooter heroines!") and so forth.

It doesn't work in THIS case only because Zerg flavor has been mod-confirmed in-thread and said player (in the universe where Tanya=Sarah) happened to be scummy enough to get a claim out there. But that's a really unusual circumstance, except for the fact that it appears to be in-play.

Alternate possibility is that the game has built-in doubles and we happened to uncover the (sorta scummy) player who corresponds to Sarah Kerrigan who simultaneously apparently has a funky role ability claim (I've never played C&C except once when I was 12 or something).

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No fakeclaims (by which I mean fake nameclaims or better, but really the floor is nameclaims) is pretty rare on MS, even if it's not out of the question for a mini with a large subset of possible roles. It's even more rare for a game where flavor knowledge is advertised as being of minimal importance (which I think it was; it isn't relevant to me, so I'm not 100% sure).

So while it's POSSIBLE that scum have no fakeclaims, I would not say that it is the default hypothesis.

And given that they have them, Tanya-Sarah is higher than background probability as a pair.

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V/LA until Friday

. Summer retreat with an academic group.

I'll be well-behaved after this one; I promise.

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Back again. Reading.

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OK, so, not much happened.

@ Neto -- I made a flavor/outguess-type argument for Furco being scum. There's also that he's fallaciously claiming that he can confirm himself with his ability and so on. The latter you can explain away by cross-supplying "he is clueless" (which, I mean, that is historically an OK inference here), but you can't with the former.

Shotty wouldn't break my heart.

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Ythan, could you please articulate the evidence against Millar for a lynch?

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Yeah. I agree.

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Millar looks town to me, too. Killing one of Shotty, Furco would be best. Ythan and bv are at the next tier.

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@ Y, you're not even in my top tier, so, ye know, I see little reason to go above-and-beyond calling for your lynch when there may be better suspects.

The short version is that I don't think you're scumhunting and I think you've slipped a few times (e.g. complaining about some abilities being more a priori feasible pregame)

The not scumhunting ties into your desire to lynch Millar even though I don't remember you ever really articulating why you think he's scum. One simple explanation is that you don't think he's scum, but still want to lynch him. Your deflection is consistent with that.

@ Muffin -- I'm humoring SX for the time being. That's (part of) why I'm still on Y. I'm assuming he'll let us lynch someone who isn't millar if it comes to it, though.

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I'm not tunneling on you, Furco. If anything, I'm considering too many possibilities.

I was following Stars Aligned, so I'm well aware that you can look scummy as town.

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If you think he is town, you shouldn't lynch him. He has claimed a PR.

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Your not scumhunting should be self-explanatory. AFAICT, your posts are little summaries of past players' points. I don't think you've ever followed up on a question you've asked someone. I do not get the sense that you are very concerned about the outcome of the D1 lynch.

The complaining is from post 19. Looking back at the actual post, I suppose "complaining" probably isn't the best word, but I still think it's the sort of thing that would occur to scum more readily than town.

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Yes and no. It is not scummy in the sense "this is scum machinations," but rather in the sense "potential scumslip." I think town is less likely to be concerned about the eventuality of claiming and having a role that is difficult to believe -- and even if they did, the response would be something like "My role doesn't seem so town, just sayin" or whatever. Not everyone would respond the same way as me, sure, but it's a stretch for me to imagine a person who has your kind of response as town.

I also mentioned this pages and pages and pages ago, and another player (Muffin, I think) agreed with me. So...I dunno what to make of your casting doubt on it at this point. I suppose it indicates you weren't paying much attention early on.

You're pretty much making the same play as Furco with the other. I list some things about your play I don't like; you respond by implicitly arguing that it's just the way you are, and it's my problem if I don't accept anti-town performance.

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Case on Shotty -- Utterly bizarre interaction with Neto
Case on Furco -- Flavorlogic implies Tanya may be a Sarahscum fakeclaim, and we know Sarah is in the game due to ZR
Case on Millar -- Anti-town play
Case on Ythan -- Anti-town mindset

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I see no reason to state my case on you in detail yet again. People can read my prior posts to get the justifications.

Also, your continued attempts to discredit me without offering a defense is noted.

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Also, no one should lynch millar until he has claimed. We don't get information about player abilities when they flip, so not knowing lynched players' abilities puts us at a big disadvantage.

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Well, I guess this means I was right about him being Kerrigan.

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The only way Kerrigan could possibly be town is. Well, it would pretty much be impossible.

For one, millar would've dropped some hints indicating that my assumption that the Zerg Rush was scum-ergenic was incorrect. That never happened IIRC.

I really thought Furco was Kerriscum, but he clearly isn't, so I think he's more likely to be town via similarly potentially fallacious outguessing (e.g. double RTS goddess scumteam is lame).

The reason it's somewhat ambiguous (e.g. she flipped humanKerrigan rather than zergKerrigan) is that the set-up wants us to speculate about alignment, and that's a pointless mechanic if the scum all flip like YE SCUM GODDESS, REJOICE, YE TOWNE.

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Some possibilities where millar was town off the top of my head:

1. Scum have a Janitor role that works on lynches and made millar flip Kerrigan.
2. There are 2 Kerrigans in this game. The scum one (Furco, because KerriganKerriganTanya is like a total wall-banger) is zerg-version Kerrigan.

But these are totally out-there.

I want Robo to explain why he's iffy on millar at this point. Cuz I mean.

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Regarding SX's role --

We can't know for sure, but my guess is that he could determine how many scum were on the wagon or something similar. This really isn't very interesting at this point, because scum could have targeted him to avoid a massclear as easily as anything else, especially given the wagon was a millar/furco/shotty 3-way in there. But let me know if you see a crumb or something to the contrary.

@ muffin -- I don't know what to make of the "destroyed" flavor being reused. The first one is clearly the lynch flavor so....

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Oh, another point --

We should've done this yesterday, but if anyone has an a priori scummy rolename, they should probably nameclaim (only!) it now. You will function as a Miller when you flip otherwise.

Give everyone a chance to weigh against the above in case I'm forgetting something before you do so, though.

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Yeah, my point is that those are both very low-probability events. The janitorly role would have to be like "makes X flip as you." Unlikely to be here.

Millar claimed something?

I wanted to totally mutilate Furco until I saw millar's flip. Having seen it, I don't want to do as much.

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The reason it's somewhat ambiguous (e.g. she flipped humanKerrigan rather than zergKerrigan) is that the set-up wants us to speculate about alignment, and that's a pointless mechanic if the scum all flip like YE SCUM GODDESS, REJOICE, YE TOWNE.

This was my speculation at that last bit.

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Mr. Y, are you unsatisfied with the interpretation of Furco's hammer (i.e. a non-scum one), or with scumKerrigan flipping humanKerrigan due to this:

Character name will be revealed, but you are left to speculate at their alignment, and the true powers they might have possessed.

Assuming the latter -- could you clarify your position? Was millar scum, or not?

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OK. Then you're just upset with the perceived game setup.

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I don't think it's a stretch because if the scum are THAT obvious, there's no point to alignment-blind flips whatsoever.

The alternative (much more remote IMO) possibility as I see it is that there is both a town human Kerrigan (millar) and a scum Infested Kerrigan. But you clearly don't believe this, because you've said that you think millar is scum.

You appear to think both that millar was scum and that he wasn't the ZergRush character. So...do you think that humanKerrigan and zergKerrigan are scumfriends? Do you think zergKerrigan is the SK? To me, those are more out-there theories than that more ambiguous flips make the alignment blindness meaningful.

If there's some third way I'm not getting, please educate me.

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OK, that's true, but that doesn't really answer or even address my questions.

Is your flavor discussion of human/infested Kerrigan relevant to this game itself in some way, or are you just complaining about the flavor implementation? Assuming the former, please clarify your position. I am having to doublethink hardcore to understand it. The scenarios I listed in my prior post are examples of the bizarre results of said doublethink.

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I am asking him a very simple question (well, a series of related simple questions), and he is being evasive. His answer itself probably would not have been interesting; the fact that he is deflecting is interesting.

My supposition is that we're working with a normal lynch threshold, but we're unlikely to get confirmation until RC's, ah, situation is resolved.

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1. I ask you how your belief in millar being scum squares with her not being the source of the Zerg Rush; you respond by pointing out that 1 scum could have a scummy role without breaking the game, which has nothing to do with the question asked.
2. In the process of trying to infer an answer from your non-response, I ask whether your comment about the human/infested Kerrigan bit is game-relevant (in which case I'm confused) or a complaint about the game setup (in which case you are being sort of misleading and wasting my life with your posts, but at least I can understand your perspective); you incredibly lamely argue that it was a "concern" rather than a "complaint," which has nothing to do with anything and is again a huge evasion.

Both of these events happened on this page (680 and 682).

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Oh my. I didn't think anything would be sufficient to make me OK with lynching Furco, but he's sort of trying his best, isn't he?

Preview edit: Shotty had questions for me?

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She's a sweetie before being Infested, though, and she's apparently going to be let free in the sequel being released in like 6 days (!!!).

There are lots of reasons to suspect Ythan, and his continued dismissal and negation of all attacks against him is not a pro-town strategy. Calling it "his prostyle" is also bogus, because I've read games where he won scummies as a wallposter (as scum, but ye know) IIRC.

On the other hand, whatever in the world possessed Furco to want to lynch MoI is sort of beyond me. I'm more sympathetic to bv and kdub, though.

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I must be confusing you with someone else, then. The avatar was of like Fabio lying out or something, though. I know it started with a Y, at least.

I've articulated why you're scummy over and over; you just either can't be bothered to take them seriously, or you think that doing as much will discredit them and minimize their threat to you.

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Also, uwaaa on Ythanflip. O.o

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Regarding my "crazy theories" --

I think it is a good strategy to briefly posit what universe we are playing the game in. It might clarify people's role functions, etc.

At least one player (Ythan) had posted beliefs that seemed odd to be put together (millar is scum AND millar is humanKerriganOnly AND zergKerrigan is out there and scum), which either indicates that scum (or town, I guess, but it's easier to get mixed up like this as scum, I think) got mixed up, or that he assumes a game universe I had not been creative enough to think up. So I asked which one applied, and he got all defensive by a) attacking MY suggested game universe, which was not the question asked and then b) framing the issue as if I was using rhetoric against him (complain/concern semantics complaint). I also thought his page 1 thing was a scumslip, but that's really old news.

I'm repeating all that in the event that Ythan has a bad memory and isn't obfuscating matters deliberately.

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Given that there were 3 wagons considered in-the-running yesterday (Shotty/Furco/millar) and scum appears to have died in spite of the split, I think furco being scumfriends with millar is not very likely. FurcoSK is slightly more possible but I mean.

Edit: page 1 thing was when Ythan was like HAVE YOU CONSIDERED THAT CLAIMS NOT ON THE BANNER MAY NOT BE BELIEVED in-thread. Scum would be more worried about the a priori plausibility of their fakeclaims than town of their rolenames IMO.

@ Ythan, I don't necessarily think that you are the most likely scum candidate. In fact, I don't think I've EVER listed you as my most likely scum candidate. You just freak out whenever someone posits suspicion of you. You are mistaking clarification requests as evidence of some kind of grand scheme.

[Iecerint]

Have you considered that the inclusion of certain characters in the banner may lend credence to some claims over others?

This is the page 1 Ythan post I am referring to. Scum are more likely to have these kinds of complaints about fakeclaims than town are about realclaims. Town are more likely to see an off town role as part of the game; scum are more likely to see an off fakeclaim as just being a shitty fakeclaim.

I am leaning against lynching Ythan today, but his claim that I have not presented specific complaints against him, or that there is no reason to suspect him, or that people's attacks against him are just rhetorical, is bogus.

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Furco, why does MoI get likelyscum'd for not posting D2 whereas bv and Kdub remain a tier higher in spite of similar (i.e. null) activity levels?

@ Robo -- don't be dumb; that is an extremely OOC quote.

I sort of grant that a roleblocker AND an ability-stealer is spooky but.

Furco, are you sure that your ability was stolen only for N1?

[Iecerint]

Is lurking D2 scummier than lurking D1, or are you attributed Kdub/bv's lurking to meta and hence nullifying it?

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Uh. Are you "yes"ing both of those?

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I considered this as well, to be honest, so I'm not ready to call this a scumslip 100%. I see Iecerint's point, but IMO it's debatable.

Didn't you say you agreed with me about it D1?

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Ah, OK. That's indeed what I was thinking of.

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I don't think I disagree with anything in your post. (It's worth lampshading for those who didn't really read it that a lot of it is similar to your post about whoever it was D1 (I think that was you?), so a lot of it is like "this is vacuous" or "this part is OK I guess" and so on.)

I'm waiting for Kdub and bv to come play with us. bv is sorta always a little shifty, but Kdub has been uncharacteristically lurky IMO. I feel sorta unloved.

Shotty could be more affectionate, too.

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@ MoI

1. Yes, millar could have been stupid town. However, that is default interpretation. Like. Whoa. And this is a no-alignment reveal game, so you're going to wait a long time for "seeing red," etc.
2. Furco's "I'm a Cop" bit is a response to Robo's "OMG FURCO SAID HE WASN'T A TOWNIE ERGO CLAIMED SCUM" point.
3. My point was that both of those possibilities is a bit loony.
4. I think someone (Ythan?) alluded to "millar's claim;" that's the basis of that post IIRC.

@ Muffin -- yeah, I think he said as much explicitly earlier in that e-mail. It's a O.O moment for me, too. I think he almost certainly would have claimed responsibility as town after we started scumhunting based on trying to find SK. Also, no town would ever try to cut us off like that.

So, uh. Yeah. It's a bizarre thesis.

[Iecerint]

EBWOP: That would require EXTREMELY lulztown play.

[Iecerint]

Iec where is your case again?

Is this what you're talking about? Because...what case are you talking about? If you make this more specific, I can try to answer your question. "More affectionate" => gimme love => moar content plz.

@ Y

Yep, Ythill must be it. I read a game he was in for some reason or other; I assume it was an old Scummies thread, cuz I dunno why I'd read a random game otherwise. I remember him commenting postgame that wall of text posting is a favored scum strategy because people give you the benefit of the doubt for being workmanlike, etc.

Your framing this as some kind of "scummy backtrack" is very silly, because the parsimonious explanation is that I read this like last October or whenever and can't remember details. The scum motivations for "lying" about something easily verifiable like this (especially by the person I'm making the comments toward) are near zero.

Yes, you never EXPLICITLY said you thought there were two Kerrigans. However, the stuff that you DID say implied that you believed as much. Your refusal to elaborate on your own beliefs prevents us from being quite sure of what your position on anything is, so.

[Iecerint]

It's possible if Ythan's stalker was scum.

Careful how you respond to bv's speculation @ all.

[Iecerint]

So, Robo was visited, but he still thought a global roleblock was plausible?

[Iecerint]

If you know it wasn't global based on your experience and the unlikelihood that you'd miss Ythan's claim, I think you'd consider a global roleblock to be a comparatively remote possibility. Or you'd at least incorporate something like "stalkers are scum or 3rd party and so are the kills" into your expression of plausibility.

Still think your alignment differs from scumMillarZRQueen's, though.

[Iecerint]

OK, well, I'll give a spoiler at this point.

I never got a role pm, and my PROD was the first notification from the mod....so soz

Wait, you're saying you confirmed without getting a role PM?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: millar13

Awful reason for voting realscumMillar. Looks like distancing. Ythan calls this out.

I'm feeling worse and worse about Ythan's play. He's been defending millar too much for my liking.

More fixation on millar, and tying another player's scumminess to said player's.

So Kdub may just be a genius, but I lean a bit toward interpreting his early play as distancing + trying to tie Ythan to millar. For one, this kind of scumlink-making, especially when there's not much evidence of careful analysis, is not very fruitful D1 cuz it's all House Of Cards'd and all that. There's some other interactions early in the iso, too (some less sketchy than these), but these are the two bits that stuck out to me after millar flipped, so.

Anyway, I was hoping Kdub would come play the game a bit so I could do more to evaluate Ythan/Kdub, but he evidently sort of refuses to do so, so I'm going ahead with it.

[Iecerint]

Like, I'm totally not unsympathetic to Ythan being scum. But.

[Iecerint]

OIC.

Well. I wish I'd known that. Not that it's a huge loss.

[Iecerint]

Yes, well, I don't read those, perhaps in part because I don't bother with them myself.

Also, you are kinda exaggerating wrt what his signature says.

RC IS SCUM WITH KDUB.

[Iecerint]

It's because I had dissociated my Kdubcase and Kdubvote into separate entities and moved the former up, but you're right that there's no reason to delay.

Vote: Kdub.

[Iecerint]

Ythan, if there is an alternate explanation for your thesis that millar was town and didn't do the ZR, please supply it. Don't whine about people misrepresenting you if you refuse to characterize your own position. Moreover, it makes no sense that you would perceive some great insight into the set-up (as you're implying) and then refuse to elaborate.

[Iecerint]

OK, so your point is that it appears there could be an odd situation in effect...but you don't believe the situation is in effect.

[Iecerint]

1. You brought up X as a possibility.
2. X implies Y.
3. You get grouchy when people point out that your perspective implies Y. So I'm going to go out on a limb and say you don't endorse Y.
4. So your entire argument was vacuous, or poorly thought-out, since it's self-defeating. OR, it isn't for some reason that you refuse to elaborate.

X = millar was town, didn't do ZR
Y = someone else with ZR flavor did ZR, zergKerrigan being the only individual who fits flavor

POINT OUT WHICH PART OF THAT IS WRONG, PLEASE.

The main way out (which I mentioned ages ago) was that you were just whining about humanKerrigan not matching zergFlavor (i.e. you were criticizing the set-up). To which you argued that it was a "concern" rather than a "complaint" which I mean.

If you fail to see why your behavior is dumbfounding as town....

[Iecerint]

OK, so, the answer is that you're whining about ("dissatisfied with," if it's the negative connotation of the words that you're railing against) the set-up (i.e. "imageflavor should match abilityflavor")? Or are you positing that someone who wasn't millar did the ZR? Because either it's part of the set-up (maybe for the reason I indicated a long time ago that you didn't like, maybe for a different reason), or someone else did ZR, since ZR totally happened.

[Iecerint]

It never even crossed my mind that Neto's death could've been caused by a vig. Except for the odd interaction with Shotty (which townShotty, incidentally, shouldn't have counted as a scumtell against Neto), Neto's play was good.

Given the "SX was the mafia kill" theory, it's possible that S2B could be an SK. Fits with the fact that there have been 2 "I was watched" instances claimed (Robo and Y), which aren't necessarily town abilities, but ye know.

However, given that, I'm skeptical that he would be the best lynch, because mafia is fairly likely to take care of him regardless of whether he's vig or SK.

[Iecerint]

About Furco --

I thought he was Kerriscum yesterday, but that's shown to be wrong now, and I'm kind of operating on the assumption that there were some town up for a lynch yesterday. And I think Kdub may've been tying Ythan to millar, and that doesn't leave many stray scumslots to speculate about.

And Furco came across really scummy as town in SA2, so.

[Iecerint]

Furc. Your inability to address actual points against you and your unintelligible blanket description of them as trolling, which makes no sense that I can even imagine, is terrible play.

LOL.

I bet he did that while giggling a little just to spite me.

[Iecerint]

It's not fluff. The content is that you are a hypocrite.

I didn't elaborate too much because that was admittedly a pretty O.O post from Furco so I mean.

[Iecerint]

Yes.

No one's played that card, though, I don't think.

[Iecerint]

He's interpreting "claim" to mean "I am a vig who shot Neto" rather than "I shot Neto." He seems perfectly accepting of the latter, less so of the former. Also, I said the same thing.

[Iecerint]

Hmm. I suppose I'll let him respond to that.

[Iecerint]

Your last sentence reads like you want me to explain something. I didn't want to hold things up. If you didn't mean it that way, fine.

[Iecerint]

As Mafia kills are Faction abilities and not role abilities Furc should be able to confirm the exact details of Shotty’s Vig role.

Do we know this, or are you assuming?

[Iecerint]

Nah, it still works if he's a little full of shit so long as a tracker or watcher exists.

It only fails if S2B and Furco are the remaining scum AND Furco has some kind of an ability that is OK to use on a scumfriend. Otherwise, the sky will fall.

[Iecerint]

Shotty may be a real vig. Furco may be a real rolecop.

Mystery solved.

[Iecerint]

But there might be a few more holes upon reflection (e.g. what if Fur's ability is "stolen" again)?

[Iecerint]

Kdub > Shotty > Furco

For me. At the very least, I want Kdub to play the game or be replaced before we think of lynching anyone.

[Iecerint]

Yo Furco -- did you ever confirm whether your ability was PERMANENTLY stolen? Like, are you even currently a rolecop? Cuz your wordchoice sort-of implies no, but I think your actions imply otherwise IIRC.

I have no meta on Ythan, so I'll trust MoI's take that Ythan is just kind of crabby and not helpful. This makes me think Kdub is more likely scum, though.

[Iecerint]

Did Furco ever explain his reasons for the hammer in detail? He should probably do so.

[Iecerint]

At the very least, I want Kdub to play the game or be replaced before we think of lynching anyone.

[Iecerint]

I totally missed that post.

Having read it, it's. Well. It's actually a pretty good post. So yeah.

[Iecerint]

Uh, he hasn't claimed yet.

[Iecerint]

Is that directed at me for not hammering, or at Muffin for asking me to hammer someone unclaimed with a week to deadline?

[Iecerint]

I am suspicious-enough of Ythan to want a claim from him.

[Iecerint]

I'd unvote, but I can't unvote. I endorse unvoting.

Does anyone have meta on mod-RC minis? Does he give fakeclaims?

[Iecerint]

Ythan, did you ever say what you thought about Kdub? He made the one very good comeback post but.

[Iecerint]

You played in a game where Furco was different from actively unhelpful?

Show me this game.

[Iecerint]

No, Shotty should shoot tonight. 100%. Regardless of whether he's vig or SK, he's going to functionally be a vig because his best move (if he's the SK) is to ride reduce the number of scum so that scum start needing him to reduce the number of mislynches they need (and he gets +like points from town, too). Saying he shouldn't shoot for fear of hitting town is like saying town shouldn't lynch for fear of hitting town.

It takes a lot of suspension of disbelief for me to see Robo as scum. We know he wasn't Kerrigan (unless there are two Kerrigans and millar was town, but that's loony), so he would've had to have planned that pre-game. If I had that ability as scum, I wouldn've used to to quicklynch town as soon as possible, ideally after a town-on-town interaction. Robo is probably town.

Furco went to the trouble to find which players were online at the time of ZR, and millar was on his list. Millar flipped Kerrigan. These kinds of things are evidence of the kind of scumhunting I wouldn't expect Fur to do as scum. He also hammered his (hypothetical) scumfriend without giving said scumfriend a chance to claim. And it's not even the case that the scumfriend was the obvious lynch (SX and I were saying he'd flip town)! I would be extremely surprised if Furco were scum, in spite of his behavior.

I wish I'd kept track of confirmation order. If millar confirmed late, that'd make Roboscum more plausible. Several of his posts today have seemed like logicfail reaches motivated by a perception that he perceived himself to be cleared.

[Iecerint]

Pretty much @ Muffin. There may be fewer if Ythan is town (e.g. Shotty may be a real vig).

[Iecerint]

Yeah, I forgot about daytalk (I did mention it as a possibility when I brought his up D1, I think), and something like a 48 hour chat bit didn't even occur to me. That's true.

There's always the possibility that different people made different choices than me, but there's still some value in introspection.

Directing Shotty is. Well. That wouldn't be the end of the world.

AUnrelated Q: I accidentally made the text microscopic. How to fix? I thought it was the scrollbar, but it won't work. <_<

[Iecerint]

I forgot CTRL. Thanks. ^^

[Iecerint]

Muffin, why aren't you more suspicious of me? Or are you?

[Iecerint]

Hi guys!

I'll just wait here, then.

[Iecerint]

OH PENGUIN~?

[Iecerint]

^ Spell out the logic of those dependencies for me, please.

[Iecerint]

(You can wait for the penguin to give us his information if ye want.)

[Iecerint]

Why didn't you use that plot device before? (I'm assuming you're alluding to a one-shot guaranteed-win investigation?)

[Iecerint]

OK, so, I just did iso ctrl+millar searches through Ythan and Robo to see what you're talking about.

From Robo's side, I totally see the connection. He yells at Muffin for attacking millar D1, then tries to "hint" that Kerrigan might be town without trying to lead the discussion. The only reason it's not 2SCUM4SCUM is that he probably perceived he had been confirmed (regardless of alignment).

From Ythan's side, I see the bizarre discussion with me about "two Kerrigans" and that whole utterly bizarre paradox thing. (Well, he actually manages to say "millar" almost none throughout the whole thing, so I mainly just remember it.) But I also remember you perceiving Ythan-millar connections before that. Could you show me what the hypothetically problematic Ythan-millar connections were?

Edit: You were told that you were wrong, so you needed to hunt for the plot device, or you were told that you weren't satisfied with the certainty that your results would be accurate, so your plot device would be handy?

[Iecerint]

Is the plot device related to your character specifically (i.e. lack of sanity might be a feature of your role), or is it related to another character (i.e. unreliable results may have been due to outside intervention)?

[Iecerint]

Preemptive

prod request @ Furco

[Iecerint]

By first and second night, do you mean 2nd and 3rd...?

[Iecerint]

Um. Robo still hasn't flipped yet.

Why'd you target MoI? Why'd you do it twice?

[Iecerint]

Yeah...I was about to say the same thing. It's a little odd.

Edit: Ah, OK. Muffin's #2 makes sense. Is the IDD a well-known aspect of Muffin's rolename? Maybe RC assumed it was something everyone understands about the character (e.g. the same as hypothetically referring to Peach's parasol or whatever).

[Iecerint]

MoI, I'm a little confused about your Neto claim. If Neto protected SX, why did he die N1?

[Iecerint]

Hmm. That fits if "destroyed" is a generic death flavor. It creates a little bit of a mystery with regard to the D1 mafia kill itself, though. We'd have to believe that scum redundantly targeted SX, or that a separate protector stopped the scumkill.

[Iecerint]

Could be. Fits with Neto being a sort of crap vig kill. It's a little funny if there are no non-mafia kills, though.

Edit: I've thought about it, and I figure I can claim my actions up to this point without much risk:

N1: Track Ythan (null result)
N2: Watch MoI (null result, but flavor implied MoI targeted someone N2, which is consistent with his claim)

N3: Protect MoI

I figure this is worth claiming because MoI is banking on no other protective role being present, and he is incorrect. Also, the fact that two protective roles exist makes it somewhat less likely that there is only one kill in play.

[Iecerint]

-bv310 --- ???
-Furcolow --- Tanya Headon -- Rolecop (unverified due to ability steal N1, other reasons N2 and N3)
-Iecerint --- ??? -- (Has tracked, watched, protected)
-Kdub --- ???
-MagnaofIllusion --- ??? --- (Has Ability Thief'd, has also done something else unclaimed N3)
-Muffin --- Lara Croft --- (Found that Robo was "Evil" N1, later told he was mistaken, no actions since then)
-Shotty to the Body --- ??? --- Vig (killed Neto, currently out of bullets)

Game Over
-millar13 | Sarah Kerrigan, destroyed Day 1 -- THRESHOLD-DROPPER, SCUM
-Netopalis | Samus Aran, shot Night 1 --- FORCES PLAYER TO HIDE BEHIND SELF, PRESUMED TOWN
-SpyreX | Cortana, destroyed Night 1 --- DETERMINES NUMBER OF SCUM ON A LYNCH, PRESUMED TOWN
-Robocopter87 | Chun Li, destroyed Day 2 --- SUPERSAINT, CAN MAKE OTHERS A SUPERSAINT, PRESUMED TOWN DUE TO MUFFIN'S BACKTRACK/NEW INFORMATION
-Ythan | Princess Peach, scratched and torn to death Night 2 --- BELOVED PRINCESS, PRESUMED TOWN

[Iecerint]

I think it's unlikely that MoI is scum. He looked like the most obvtown player in the game for me, and there was no kill the night I protected him. Also, there've been a couple times where I think he's refrained from taking the easy bait on a player; can't remember where exactly offhand, though.

[Iecerint]

I was not able to protect anyone N2. It wasn't a possible action for me. My abilities are varied, but they're balanced by only being available at certain times.

It's true that Ythan's claim was consistent with being a Beloved Princess (i.e. null track N1), but his play left me unconvinced he was town. For example, as someone who apparently had information that someone knew he had targeted no one and consequently was more likely than the background probability to be non-scum, he did a very poor job of cooperating with someone who all-but-screamed to have been said person (i.e. me). I spent most of D2 trying to get him to clarify his position on millar. I didn't want to Watch a player I thought was likely to be scum.

Of the remaining players, I thought that MoI was most likely to be killed given that I wasn't to be killed, so I Watch'd him. I ruled out Muffin because the result of Robo's lynch was pretty ambiguous, so I thought he may be a plausible wagon target for scum given that he was town; I didn't think MoI was a plausible wagon target, so I thought he was a more likely NK.

In hindsight, I wish I'd watched Ythan N2 on the basis that he was extremely likely to be targeted given that he was town, but I sort of struggled with it and ultimately decided against it. I think you'll pick up on my mixed feelings if you reread my D2. I basically continuously go after Ythan all day while saying that I don't think he's scum. It's because my null track weakly implied a non-scum alignment whereas his play did otherwise.

[Iecerint]

The probability that scum would NK Furco N2 or N3 is near 0%. His playstyle is obnoxious enough that scum can get town to lynch him given that Furco is town.

The only possible players to Watch were Ythan or MoI. I chose wrong N2 and right N3, or that's how I assumed things went.

[Iecerint]

Correct protective role play AFAIK is to ignore the claimed vig on the basis that that he is either scum, or he will be taken out by scum due to the relatively high risk of keeping him around.

May not apply if the vig's reads are way off, or if there are a gillion scum roleblockers.

On the other hand, the fact that all those roleblockers exist, and the fact that both Neto's protective abilities and mine are nerfed in their own ways, might be consistent with only one kill. I would be a bit surprised, though.

Even though his play has picked up a lot and I've liked what I've seen starting from that big comeback post toward the end of D2, I think Kdub makes sense as scum with millar, especially since we know Ythan was town. I think Kdub's early game interpretation that Ythan was defending millar too much is the sort of thing a scumbuddy says to tie his scumfriend to a town player moreso than a legitimate early game scumhunting move. Connection scumhunting is not normative that early in the game.

Waiting for MoI to come back.

[Iecerint]

@ MoI --

1. My abilities aren't quite 1-shot, but you're correct that the JOAT analogy is a good one.
2. Yep, that's the other role I'm thinking of. IIRC, you said you didn't think there were protective roles other than his in the set-up in your infodump post.
~
3. Yeah, the fact that both of us aren't proper protective roles may make us even out to exactly 1, so that's possible.
4. You said you were going to elaborate on roleblocker possibilities after you got back, so I was waiting for whatever it was you were going to give us before I speculated any further.
~
5. The backthink from the wincon is a very good point. I ruled it out because the result looked like 2 kills, and town would look silly trying to claim vig in that situation, or be forced into suboptimal NKs thereafter. I think you're correct that any town doesn't have to worry about 3rd parties (though I suppose they may exist).
6. I thought Shotty claimed RB'd? It's a funny target for a vig, anyway, though.
~
Kdub makes me uncomfortable given the flips so far, but I am receptive to a Shotty lynch.

[Iecerint]

Let's see, flavor indicated I was watched and/or tracked, perhaps both. Heard some noises when leaving Muffin's room and then someone was sleeping in front of my door.

Those noises would have been me running into the closet and locking the door.

It was this.

Do we have another implicit tracker/watcher in the claims? I think only Ythan claimed one yesterday (me). Getting a handle on this could let us know 100% in the event of a Shottown flip that scum has certain skillsets.

[Iecerint]

Yeah, that was the first of the two. So you're the one sleeping outside post-coital or something?

[Iecerint]

I think the most obvious use of Track and Watch are to track scum or watch players likely to be killed. The fact that they have other uses is largely irrelevant, because those aren't as useful as using them to find scum directly. The roleblockers you allude to, for example, could be either town or scum. Also, in Fur's case, there was always the chance that he was just making it up.

MoI is who I would've killed as scum, maybe even over Ythan if I were too paranoid about the doc protect. I thought he was more likely to be town than Ythan, the other possibility I considered. That was the basis of my thinking.

[Iecerint]

I'm fine with a massclaim as such.

I already said why I thought Kdub was scum in an earlier post. I just didn't repeat it all in that post.

I haven't been roleblocked all game.

[Iecerint]

If Furc is scum, I think scum probably lack safeclaims. Would explain the quick hammer.

I agree with Kdub that his pushing the millar lynch consistently doesn't look fake. I said as much D2.

I don't personally recall Kdub pushing for millar's lynch very strongly. Will need to reread early Kdub in a bit to determine whether I'm OK with his version of events.

[Iecerint]

Thing is, it wasn't really between just those two. SX and I were leaning Shotty IIRC.

I mean, I guess it's POSSIBLE that we had all 3 scum pegged D1, but ye know.

Looking back to Kdub's iso.

[Iecerint]

I see. Before I focused on:

1. Weak starting vote
2. Quick unvote
3. FoS rather than a vote on him after that

But he does stick to his millar guns even later on, so you're right about that.

[Iecerint]

Thief can be a pro-town role. See Kise's Square-Enix mafia 1 for a recent video game-themed example.

Also, Rikku is a heroine, not that I don't expect that to be subverted.

[Iecerint]

~Prod abuse for Shotty~

[Iecerint]

The players who want you to replace out can't all be scum. MoI's night action implies Muffin is town whereas mine implies MoI is town.

[Iecerint]

@ bv, what last game are you referring to?

[Iecerint]

He's also an ability Cop that has yet to (publicly) produce results.

How do the claimed roleblocks match-up?

kk, will wait.

Do those sorts of things happen to Chun Li in the flavor? I dunno much about SF lore.

[Iecerint]

If by "full cop" you mean "Muffin," he may still be impaired by reliability issues (sanity, etc).

Your "Bison brainwash" seemed really specific and appeared to imply knowledge of the flavor I didn't have. I agree with your interpretation of "some of you," though; I'd forgotten about that, largely because I assumed Robo was town when he flipped and therefore didn't really process it very elaborately.

Furco has the same scummy vibe in that game as this one (even though he's town there). He also had the same scummy vibe in the other game I read/played with him (he replaced in after I was dead): SA2.

Would be nice to get some Furco scum meta. He claims he lurks as scum in the game bv posted, but lurking is kinda a relative term.

[Iecerint]

Gotcha. I just knew she was one of the heroes, so I didn't know about the subplot.

[Iecerint]

@ Shotty's rep -- claim in your first post with all actions, your role, your class, etc.

[Iecerint]

Please also confirm that your role only has 1 ability (which Shotty indicated in his Night action run-down but never confirmed).

/slap

@ Kdub, Fur said his only scum game on the site was one where he replaced in. Nvm if you're requested offsite scum meta.

[Iecerint]

Also claim who was chosen with those actions. I'm assuming netopalis night 1, but after that your slot has been AWOL.

/slap

[Iecerint]

You lose +like points when you refrain from claiming immediately. Just sayin.

[Iecerint]

1. I've never played C&C before, though I played the first stage of Red Alert at a friend's house once (you save Einstein, I think?). The "Tanya is CN" assertion was based on her wiki page, where it says that in multiplayer matches the sound of a woman laughing is played when someone trains her or something. It seemed like a CN-ish trope to me.

2. Re: MoI: the objective information is that I protected him and no one died that night.

It looks like your top suspects are MoI and Muffin. Do I have that correct?

Do you still think Neto was scum?

[Iecerint]

Claiming in as little time as possible minimizes the chance that whatever you already claimed was made-up. The longer you take, the less informative confirming your predecessor's information becomes.

Also, I could have confirmed your delayed PM receipt if you'd claimed immediately upon receiving it, but since you didn't, either because you were away from the site or due to some other reason, I can no longer do so.

Your point is that shot/destroyed doesn't match, right? Yeah, that bothered me, too. I might have made mention of it at some point (not sure), but I've trusted MoI because of N3.

More importantly, I think your implication that you think Neto was scum is totally bogus. I don't get the "erratic" play you allude to, and I could cross-supply your argument to focus on "objective" information back at you.

Why are you ignoring the lack of an N3 kill?

[Iecerint]

Also, do you have any major objections to the claim order Muffin/MoI posted, and/or do you want us to continue to massclaim immediately?

[Iecerint]

Waiting for Kast to make comments about the claim order. Failing that, whoever was 2nd on the list is up. I'm pretty sure I was 3rd.

I do what Kast does when I place in regardless of my alignment, so I don't think the form of his replace-in is compelling in and of itself.

[Iecerint]

So, I'm ambivalent about MoI one way or the other, but no one is challenging that MoI is an ability thief fellow. That has nothing to do with Kast's argument that MoI is scum.

[Iecerint]

Well, we know he didn't have the PM until a couple hours before his big post, but after his first one, so it would've been relatively reliable this time around. In the general case, yeah, it wouldn't 100% rule in or out anything (unless he messed up a fakeclaim), but it never hurts.

[Iecerint]

I'm excited.

[Iecerint]

^ I think he pretty much responded to that, if indirectly. He speculated that flavor for grapple'd deaths is made vanilla, hence the other kill matching the lynch flavor.

[Iecerint]

@ Kast -- It's not that delaying a claim upon replacing in is scummy in the sense that it makes someone likely scum, but that it is consistent with a scum player under suspicion having to scour the thread to make certain he doesn't miss any aspects of a fakeclaim before claiming. And I've caught scum (and helped confirm town) with quick nameclaims where a player replaces in late-game, so I think it's a decent heuristic.

I still don't think you've come up with an explanation for the no-kill N3. Do you think another protective role that could possibly explain things is keeping quiet? Because unless scum just forgot to send in an action or something (e.g. Ythan is a fairy godmother-type Beloved Princess), the lack of kill N3 was town-motivated.

We were going to massclaim with your role first originally. I was gauging interest in continuing.

Edit: Your discussion of ideal play seems to have little to do with this game, and at any rate glosses over secondary evidence that can change the Bayesian probabilities of various events, etc.

[Iecerint]

I'd missed Furco's N3 hide claim because he listed it as hiding on "the second night." <_<

OK, that makes it possible that MoI is scum. Background probability would appear quite low, though.

@ MoI -- Have you responded to Kast's point that two town role-cops, and a MuffinCop, and a IecJOAT is a lot of investigative power for town? I could justify a lot of it on the basis that the game is delayed reveal, but that does seem a bit loaded, and it's what I'm forced to believe if you're town (since I'm town, you confirm Muffin, and Furco was...well, I suppose he's more of a wild card, but I wouldn't say he was scum with millar under any circumstances if he were any other player).

[Iecerint]

@ Kast:

1. The Mod's bolded bit refers to the limited rather than delayed aspect of the reveal mechanic, or that's how I've interpreted it.

2. Finding that Muffin didn't have a Cop ability would've found scum. Framing it as searching for town is misleading.

3. I don't understand what separates Neto's attitude toward Robo from, namely, mine.

4. If you think MoI is the last scum, why are you framing so much of Muffin's play in terms of scum machinations? (Yeah, you also throw the "ideal play" deviation criticism.)

[Iecerint]

1. I agree.

2. OK, that makes more sense. I agree that trgeting Neto N1 doesn't make much sense. I think bv'd be a decent alignment Cop target, though, since he's harder to get a read on otherwise.

3. I didn't vote for him, but I rhetoric'd against him.

4. K

[Iecerint]

I am leaning toward lynching Kast on the basis that his arguments make assumptions that make less sense to me. Kdub summaries my feelings on the issue very well. Also, MoI was my strongest town read prior to Kast calling it into doubt.

I will say that this game's MoI is different from the MoI who was in Disgaea 2. THAT MoI seemed scummy to me, but was town. This one SEEMS town, but ye know...

[Iecerint]

@ Muffin -- So the vig/kill missed you N2 because you used an active ability...?

And that means that someone DID shoot at you the night that Ythan died?

HOLD THE PHONE.

This officially does not make sense. Ythan was killed N2. Muffin has claimed someone shot him N2. So either non-scum killed Ythan (and haven't owned up to it), scum had 2 kills, or Shotty was non-scum. Right?

[Iecerint]

Well, 4th possibility is that Kast and Muffin are scum together, I guess, but ye know.

@ Kast -- I think there's still a lot to discuss. I may've overlooked or misunderstood something. I need Muffin and especially MoI to evaluate that and see what they think.

[Iecerint]

Yeah, it just didn't sink in at the time.

So, it looks like you're voting Kast. Why on earth are you doing that given that Ythan died the same night someone shot you? Do you think he's an SK, or that an SK/vig killed Ythan? If so, how do you explain the total lack of an NK N3? I protected successfully *AND* Furco was killed?

[Iecerint]

Well, I mean, you clearly knew you'd been shot at (you wouldn't forget THAT), and you think Kast is scum, so you must have a reason for it. Are you saying you don't, really, or that you hadn't noticed the discrepancy?

@ all -- If I'm overlooking something obvious, feel free to clue me in.

Edit:

a) Shotty claimed he ran out of kills. You think the SK is going to sit on his hands until endgame? (The point is to remind you of this detail.)
b) By "killed" I mean targeted. If there were 2 kills N3, they would've have to have both been blocked, which would've meant targeting Furco (he hid) and MoI (I protected him).

(But that "b" bit is a mistake on my part, because Shotty had run out of kills by N3, so that bit is irrelevant.)

[Iecerint]

While possible, the prior probability of that happening is less than 1%.

[Iecerint]

Kast, can you restate why you think MoI is more probable scum than Muffin under the circumstances?

[Iecerint]

@ MoI -- Do you still think Kast is proper scum? If so, why does my logic fail to hold?

@ Kdub/bv -- What do you think about what I've pointed out?

[Iecerint]

Ok, so RC didn't initially give me the actual PMs between himself and Shotty. I asked for those and just got them now. Some things based on those:

-Shotty tried to kill Muffin due to being suspicious about the investigation result on Chun Li.

-Shotty received a Night 2 Results PM which included flavor that stated Chun Li's room had an evil smell, though Chun Li herself had nothing evil or anything that indicated her of being evil.
--It also stated that there was an Asian girl sleeping outside Shotty's room.
--It also stated that someone had noticably visited Muffin's room prior to Shotty going there.
---Shotty made a loud metallic click sound on arriving at Muffin's room.
---Something made a sound after Shotty attempted to kill Muffin.

1. Have we worked out what Asian girl targeted Shotty N2?
2. Have we worked out who else targeted Muffin N2? (Figure it could be whoever protected him.)

Yes/No on those two might be OK at this point.

3. SHOTTY made the click? Wat? And that's different from
4. The sound that went after the attempted kill?

[Iecerint]

OK, but did you read my post, or did I miss where you responded to it? What do you make of Muffin's claiming he was shot at N2?

[Iecerint]

I'll summarize the relevant bit for you again:

1. Muffin claims someone shot him N2.
2. Shotty/Kast claims he shot Muffin N2.
3. Ythan died N2.

Doesn't this imply that Shotty isn't mafia, unless vig/SK killed Ythan or Muffin/Kast are scum together?

[Iecerint]

I agree. Muffin-Kast would require a pretty epic bus. Also, I think there's some evidence that the flavor text has grains of truth in it, based on comparing information from different players.

- I think claiming roleblocks and protections and so forth is a good idea. We've already seen a preponderance of limited abilities claimed, so the risk associated with it is lower than is typical.
- I think you're correct about the last bit, but it was probably unnecessary to point that out. <_<

*Edit*

If Muffin got information that he was shot at, we can probably just ask people whether they got similar flavor. This would give us hypothetical evidence of successful protects without outing anyone.

@ MoI -- Did you get information that you were shot at (or otherwise targeted) N3?
@ all -- Have you received shot-at (or other) flavor yet this game?

(It is possible that failed destruction kills are flavorless.)

[Iecerint]

That said I don’t think Muffin-Kast is that epic a bus given that Kast has only voted for me today. It’s easy to sling as much mud as possible on a partner if you never vote for them and set up the perception that if I’m scum Muffin must be Town. Especially in the limited / delayed reveal environment we are in.

Huh? Muffin's been voting Kast on your team for ages. That's what I'm referring to.

My flavor is incoming:

[Iecerint]

After N1 (tracking Ythan):

I don't sense anything is wrong even though I watch Ythan's spot. I feel sleepy and bored afterwards (99% just flavor).

After N2 (watching MoI):

I first hang out for a bit before heading to MoI's spot. When I get there, I find that she's not there. I'm kinda WTF but I decide to hang out just in case someone shows up. I hide myself in PLOT DEVICE so that I can't be seen (I think this is just flavor) and rest. The PLOT DEVICE works such that I'll wake up if anyone comes in or whatever.

Hours later MoI comes back, and that's all that woke me up. Then I go back home.

There's one more paragraph, but it would reveal my rolename, so ye know.

After N3 (protecting MoI):

I just got a link to the game and an indication that something "unusual" had happened. RC also included what appears to be a reference to Gears of War, though I don't play FPS's so I can't say for sure. The "unusual" bit sort-of implied that I'd been successful while the GoW quote implied that lots of people had died; they may've just been typed that way to fool with me.

So no kill attempts.

[Iecerint]

Is this what happened N1?

SCUM KILLS SX.
NETO HIDES SX BEHIND HIMSELF.
SCUM KILL FAILS.
KAST KILLS NETO.
KAST INDIRECTLY KILLS SX (HIDING BEHIND NETO).

If so, it means that Neto pretty much can't have been scum unless MoI is lying about his abilities (which I mean).

[Iecerint]

Why would it have been careless to have told the truth about Grapple Beam?

[Iecerint]

Furco, I'm assuming you didn't get any "someone tried to kill me" flavor?

[Iecerint]

I've just received a PM from RC indicating that that last N3 PM may have been sent to everyone. That is, I may not have gotten a flavor PM at all on account of using Protect rather than an Investigative ability.

So, you can look at your D4 start PMs to probably see what I'm talking about in terms of the GoW allusion.

Waiting to get confirmation that the first bit of it wasn't personalized for me.

[Iecerint]

EBWOP: I say "may" because it's unclear how much of it was sent to everyone. I may've got edits or whatever.

[Iecerint]

@ Kast, you could explain the flavors like this:

Scum: scratched and torn to pieces
Vig/SK: shot
Other: destroyed

Since SX matchs lynch flavor, which doesn't make a lot of sense, really.

I agree that the default assumption would be flavor-matching.

[Iecerint]

Based on a google search, that last line is a GoW allusion. Could be my mistake; like I said, I've never played the game.

RC has confirmed that everyone got that last bit, so there is no longer anything for me to outguess with regard to whether I was the reason for the lack of an N3 kill.

[Iecerint]

That's a neat possibility, but it seems really bizarrely fortuitous that the roles would work together so precisely (Framer targets X, Cop targets X, Framer-checker targets X the following night). Though I guess it's not too crazy if FC's ability is passive (it becomes a little less than 5%).

[Iecerint]

Oh, wait, nevermind. It's lower than that -- a little over 1% chance (Framer chooses 1/9 * Cop chooses 1/10). Granted that thinking and such make the number a bit higher irl.

[Iecerint]

Kast, did "Smell of Evil" get its own PM, or was it included with a PM that included other information?

From what you said before, it sounded like the implication was that Chun Li was some kind of miller. Was that the impression you were trying to convey?

[Iecerint]

I think his interpretation is like this:

1. Muffin found that Chun Li spelled evil.
2. Then he was told that he was wrong. Oops!
3. Later you went to her room (or he thought you did) and were told that her room smelled evil, but she wasn't.

So it sounds like you were able to discern that she wasn't evil, even though there was reason to think she was that way (her room).

I agree with your statements about balance and low probability.

When had Shotty been to Chun Li's room? You say "flashback," so....

[Iecerint]

EBWOP: smelled, but ye know

[Iecerint]

Muffin, didn't you get information N2 that you'd been wrong about Robo? Was that something similar?

[Iecerint]

@ Muffin -- That's one occasion; the N2 PM is a flashback.

@ bv -- Convince me that MoI is town. I'm about to vote for him. The only other players I'd consider at this point without new revelations are you and possibly Kdub (and, come to think of it, that'd still kinda require revelations).

Also, give us your flavor in more detail, since you seen to think it makes MoI totes Rikku.

[Iecerint]

1. While I am sympathetic to your point about Furc's playstyle, I am not convinced that that is a very reliable way to determine his alignment. Also, he is near 100% town if MoI is scum (works both ways).

2. What "second ability" of MoI's are you referring to? The secret one he used N3 that no one knows about?

3. You have ignored Kast's suggestion that MoI could have Rikku-consistent abilities while being some other character (like, any evil-aligned Thief female).

4. If you think you have information suggesting that MoI is town, you should probably share it.

[Iecerint]

I have not claimed a rolename yet. I've claimed my actions, though:

Track Ythan N1 (Null)
Watch MoI N2 (Null, though I did learn that he performed a night action)
Protect MoI N3 (No word on whether it was responsible for the no-kill; the other possible explanation is that Furco hid himself)

I suppose I don't mind throwing out a rolename if people want. I'd rather bv and/or Kdub do it first. I have 1-2 rolecrumbs out, anyway.

[Iecerint]

(I was actually starting to lean that way, too.)

[Iecerint]

Why are you voting Furc on that basis over Kast or me?

Also, what made you wonder whether we were my mylo?

[Iecerint]

Oh, nvm at that last. I guess there are only 7.

[Iecerint]

Neighborizing with a town-aligned player seems like a reasonable use of the ability to me.

[Iecerint]

MoI, the main problem I have with your ideas is that I think there is close to 0% probability that Kast is scum because we know he killed someone else when Ythan died. I think you would've realized that this is pretty objective and straightforward and would have adjusted your theorizing appropriately if you were town. As it stands, it looks like you're disappointed that your perfectly-structured frame didn't pan out, so you're continuing to say it over and over out of indignance or something.

What annoys me is that Kast's Neto-is-scum theory is nearly as odd -- it's not QUITE as low-probability as Kastscum, since Kast could only be an SK, and even then not really. Saving grace is that failing to believe that Neto was scum makes a bigger plothole with the kill flavor, so I can almost forgive it. But this is something I agree with you on.

The only way I could see Kast as non-town is if Ythan were a scum Beloved Princess who gave town a deathless night after her death (or something). In other words, I think it's not even worth considering that both scumkill and SKill were blocked without divine intervention. I am willing, hypothetically, to lose the game on the back of banking on such an improbable event not having happened.

I had no recollection that Kdub was a major force, rhetorical or otherwise, behind the Robo half-lynch. I remembered me because it was me.

[Iecerint]

So...you think that Muffin saying he was shot at but not killed after Shotty said he shot at Muffin but it didn't work was JUST A COINCIDENCE?

WAT.

1. No, I don't think your statements about millar look like bussing, not even if I look at them through confirmation bias lenses. I thought you were town up until I realized that Kast could NOT be scum (unless the above OR Muffin-Kast, which I don't think is likely because Muffin would've had to have been bussing Kast most of D4 IIRC), and you kept going on about it even after the fact.
2. At this point, no, I don't consider you town. I would have voted for you a long time ago under any normal circumstances, except that I was so sure you were town before. I think Kast has engaged me when I presented him with evidence that Neto is probably not scum whereas it's seemed more like you've ignored me.

What makes you think I don't like you asking Kast questions?

That said, figuring out why Muffin didn't die N2 is probably a good idea.

[Iecerint]

Samus's Grapple Beam is her throw in Smash Bros. If RC is someone like me who hasn't really played the Metroid games much, but knows of her through that franchise, I could see Grapple Beam, or some kind of "Grapple" ability, as being one of the ones chosen.